Cubs Mets deal inevitable?

[sneakypower]

i don't see why they're not proven enough...Syndergaard and Matz have proven full well they're very good at getting hitters out (2.4 WAR ZiPS projection for 26 GS, 2.2 WAR for 25 GS)

 

also, Castro's currently sitting at replacement level despite .330 BABIP

[Cubswin11]

This whole "OMG SS OVERLOAD MUST TRADE FOR PITCHING" is such a [expletive] stupid narrative. Edited May 12, 2015 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

Just spend money on pitching in the offseason and keep the hitting prospects.

[Guest]

i don't see why they're not proven enough...Syndergaard and Matz have proven full well they're very good at getting hitters out (2.4 WAR ZiPS projection for 26 GS, 2.2 WAR for 25 GS)

 

also, Castro's currently sitting at replacement level despite .330 BABIP

 

When you're giving up big time position assets and are seemingly able to pull 2 win pitchers out of a hat, that projection(and the fact that it's a projection) isn't probably enough.

 

I mean sure, if they wanted to trade Thor and Matz in a package for Castro you're starting to get somewhere, but most Met-based conversations are still trying to figure out why Niese isn't enough for him.

[sneakypower]

This whole "OMG SS OVERLOAD MUST TRADE FOR PITCHING" is such a [expletive] stupid narrative.

it would improve our chances of playing meaningful Fall games pretty substantially

 

the categorical 'f pitching' narrative is almost as bad, when we have 3rd-worst bullpen in the league to this point and 2 starters with whom the manager doesn't allow to see the 6th inning

[CUBZ99]

Looks like Wada was pulled from his IA Cubs start tonight and Pevey stated it was not due to injury.

[Guest]

This whole "OMG SS OVERLOAD MUST TRADE FOR PITCHING" is such a [expletive] stupid narrative.

it would improve our chances of playing meaningful Fall games pretty substantially

 

the categorical 'f pitching' narrative is almost as bad, when we have 3rd-worst bullpen in the league to this point and 2 starters with whom the manager doesn't allow to see the 6th inning

 

isn't that basically weighing performance by situational leverage?

 

no thanks.

[Cubswin11]

This whole "OMG SS OVERLOAD MUST TRADE FOR PITCHING" is such a [expletive] stupid narrative.

it would improve our chances of playing meaningful Fall games pretty substantially

 

the categorical 'f pitching' narrative is almost as bad, when we have 3rd-worst bullpen in the league to this point and 2 starters with whom the manager doesn't allow to see the 6th inning

I'm not saying we don't need pitching but there's a lot better ways to go about it than trading Castro/Russell/etc.

[sneakypower]

I mean sure, if they wanted to trade Thor and Matz in a package for Castro you're starting to get somewhere, but most Met-based conversations are still trying to figure out why Niese isn't enough for him.

thinking it's plausible a team's going to give up that type of value just to marginally upgrade from Flores to Castro is even worse

 

Castro hasn't made one single identifiable offensive improvement in the six seasons he's had in the majors, it might be time to stop expecting it

[Guest]

I mean sure, if they wanted to trade Thor and Matz in a package for Castro you're starting to get somewhere, but most Met-based conversations are still trying to figure out why Niese isn't enough for him.

thinking it's plausible a team's going to give up that type of value just to marginally upgrade from Flores to Castro is even worse

 

Castro hasn't made one single identifiable offensive improvement in the six seasons he's had in the majors, it might be time to stop expecting it

 

They're welcome to not make a deal, I don't begrudge them that. But Castro's trade value does not hinge on improvement, he's plenty valuable with the standard of play he's repeatedly set for himself.

[Guest]

I mean sure, if they wanted to trade Thor and Matz in a package for Castro you're starting to get somewhere, but most Met-based conversations are still trying to figure out why Niese isn't enough for him.

thinking it's plausible a team's going to give up that type of value just to marginally upgrade from Flores to Castro is even worse

 

Castro hasn't made one single identifiable offensive improvement in the six seasons he's had in the majors, it might be time to stop expecting it

 

the fact that it's implausible is precisely why i find castro trade talk annoying. he's not going to net what he and his contract are actually worth.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They're welcome to not make a deal, I don't begrudge them that. But Castro's trade value does not hinge on improvement, he's plenty valuable with the standard of play he's repeatedly set for himself.

 

If his 2015 looks like his 2013 is all said and done, would that change your opinion significantly?

[sontensei]

I mean sure, if they wanted to trade Thor and Matz in a package for Castro you're starting to get somewhere, but most Met-based conversations are still trying to figure out why Niese isn't enough for him.

thinking it's plausible a team's going to give up that type of value just to marginally upgrade from Flores to Castro is even worse

 

Castro hasn't made one single identifiable offensive improvement in the six seasons he's had in the majors, it might be time to stop expecting it

 

the fact that it's implausible is precisely why i find castro trade talk annoying. he's not going to net what he and his contract are actually worth.

 

Thats why you gotta add in guys like Gleyber, Almora and company

[Guest]

I mean sure, if they wanted to trade Thor and Matz in a package for Castro you're starting to get somewhere, but most Met-based conversations are still trying to figure out why Niese isn't enough for him.

thinking it's plausible a team's going to give up that type of value just to marginally upgrade from Flores to Castro is even worse

 

Castro hasn't made one single identifiable offensive improvement in the six seasons he's had in the majors, it might be time to stop expecting it

 

the fact that it's implausible is precisely why i find castro trade talk annoying. he's not going to net what he and his contract are actually worth.

 

Thats why you gotta add in guys like Gleyber, Almora and company

 

you have some strange views on how economics work

[sneakypower]

I mean sure, if they wanted to trade Thor and Matz in a package for Castro you're starting to get somewhere, but most Met-based conversations are still trying to figure out why Niese isn't enough for him.

thinking it's plausible a team's going to give up that type of value just to marginally upgrade from Flores to Castro is even worse

 

Castro hasn't made one single identifiable offensive improvement in the six seasons he's had in the majors, it might be time to stop expecting it

 

They're welcome to not make a deal, I don't begrudge them that. But Castro's trade value does not hinge on improvement, he's plenty valuable with the standard of play he's repeatedly set for himself.

2.6 WAR (1.3 using B-R) in his last 326 G

[Guest]

They're welcome to not make a deal, I don't begrudge them that. But Castro's trade value does not hinge on improvement, he's plenty valuable with the standard of play he's repeatedly set for himself.

 

If his 2015 looks like his 2013 is all said and done, would that change your opinion significantly?

 

It would depend on the details, but if he has a replacement level '15 that would definitely lower his trade value.

[Guest]

So now its time to play Baseball Mogul wanna be GM. What deal do YOU do with the Mets!!!!!?!?!

 

And YES I am a fan of flipping castro to another team, and have La Stella hold down 2b till Javy gets right.

 

btw... whats La Stella's timeline?

 

You gotta give something to get something, right!?!

 

Anyways....

 

Castro, Almora, and Gleyber Torres

 

for...

 

Syndergaard, Matz, and one of the Torres Relievers

So...a top 10-15 shortstop on a great contract, a top 50 and a top 75 prospect for two pitching prospects and a reliever?

 

I'm going to go with no.

 

Syndergaard is #11 in all of MLB in 2015 rankings

Matz is #65

 

Almora is #56

Torres isnt even on the top 100 list.

 

This is not a big strech.

trust me, Gleyber will be on mid and post season top 50's. It's Almora I'm calling top 75.

 

You're also ignoring that Castro will be on the Cubs and under tight cost control for nearly as long as Syndergaard for the Mets.

 

There is only one real major league asset in the deal and he's going the wrong way for this to make sense to a team trying to make a push this year.

[sneakypower]

There is only one real major league asset in the deal and he's going the wrong way for this to make sense to a team trying to make a push this year.

what certainty is there that we're not mired in a repeat of '13 for Castro? is it greater than the odds that Syndergaard doesn't acclimate or that Matz can't immediately be a viable high-leverage reliever?

[Banedon]

You are against trading with the mets for PITCHING which we need? Really!?! Why?!?!

 

Because pitchers suck.

[Guest]

There is only one real major league asset in the deal and he's going the wrong way for this to make sense to a team trying to make a push this year.

what certainty is there that we're not mired in a repeat of '13 for Castro? is it greater than the odds that Syndergaard doesn't acclimate or that Matz can't immediately be a viable high-leverage reliever?

Are you more concerned about 2015 or simply having the most overall talent in the org to set up a longer run?

 

I think it's much more likely that Starlin is a positive 2015 asset. It's probably about a wash in the long run if you look at him for Thor + Matz. Given what you know of my opinion of Starlin, that's how down I am on trading assets for pitching prospects, in general.

 

For the trade proposal I was responding to in particular, adding Almora and Torres on top of Starlin for those guys is, IMO, ludicrous.

[sontensei]

There is only one real major league asset in the deal and he's going the wrong way for this to make sense to a team trying to make a push this year.

what certainty is there that we're not mired in a repeat of '13 for Castro? is it greater than the odds that Syndergaard doesn't acclimate or that Matz can't immediately be a viable high-leverage reliever?

Are you more concerned about 2015 or simply having the most overall talent in the org to set up a longer run?

 

I think it's much more likely that Starlin is a positive 2015 asset. It's probably about a wash in the long run if you look at him for Thor + Matz. Given what you know of my opinion of Starlin, that's how down I am on trading assets for pitching prospects, in general.

 

For the trade proposal I was responding to in particular, adding Almora and Torres on top of Starlin for those guys is, IMO, ludicrous.

 

Every teams fans are going to have a much higher regard for their own teams prospects / players than the opposing team.

We have a glaring hole in the pitching staff, rather than trading away prospects for rental players at the deadline, as a fan of the cubs i'd rather trade long term talent pitching talent for long term hitting talent . it just so happens that the METS are one of the few teams that have excess of that other than maybe the Nationals.

[SouthSideRyan]

So now its time to play Baseball Mogul wanna be GM. What deal do YOU do with the Mets!!!!!?!?!

 

And YES I am a fan of flipping castro to another team, and have La Stella hold down 2b till Javy gets right.

 

btw... whats La Stella's timeline?

 

You gotta give something to get something, right!?!

 

Anyways....

 

Castro, Almora, and Gleyber Torres

 

for...

 

Syndergaard, Matz, and one of the Torres Relievers

So...a top 10-15 shortstop on a great contract, a top 50 and a top 75 prospect for two pitching prospects and a reliever?

 

I'm going to go with no.

 

Why are we calling Almora one of those things?

[Guest]

Every teams fans are going to have a much higher regard for their own teams prospects / players than the opposing team.

We have a glaring hole in the pitching staff, rather than trading away prospects for rental players at the deadline, as a fan of the cubs i'd rather trade long term talent pitching talent for long term hitting talent . it just so happens that the METS are one of the few teams that have excess of that other than maybe the Nationals.

 

Here's the thing about pitching prospects, they end up producing about half as much value as an equivalent hitting prospect. This is slightly dated so the actual numbers aren't exactly right any more, but the more recent study I can't find right now showed the ratio between hitters and pitchers is about the same as seen here: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html

[Guest]

Starlin this year: .276/.298/.354 in 131 PAs with a .327 BABIP

7/6-8/16 last year: .270/.321/.324 in 162 PAs with a .328 BABIP

4/23-5/22 in 2012: .277/.274/.366 in 117 PAs with a .322 BABIP

4/20-6/1 in 2011: .278/.304/.377 in 158 PAs with a .321 BABIP

8/13-9/19 in 2010: .268/.303/.339 in 120 PAs with a .323 BABIP

 

He goes through one of these stretches every year. If he's still doing it in the middle of June, then I'll start to worry.

[sontensei]

Every teams fans are going to have a much higher regard for their own teams prospects / players than the opposing team.

We have a glaring hole in the pitching staff, rather than trading away prospects for rental players at the deadline, as a fan of the cubs i'd rather trade long term talent pitching talent for long term hitting talent . it just so happens that the METS are one of the few teams that have excess of that other than maybe the Nationals.

 

Here's the thing about pitching prospects, they end up producing about half as much value as an equivalent hitting prospect. This is slightly dated so the actual numbers aren't exactly right any more, but the more recent study I can't find right now showed the ratio between hitters and pitchers is about the same as seen here: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html

 

thing is after you have 9 solid young guys on the field what do you do with high end prospects? yeah trade for pitching.

 

Castro believe it or not has the highest value at a position we have depth, gotta use him for pitching. might be better to wait till the offseason tho.

Edited May 13, 2015 by sontensei