4/23 Cubs (Hendricks) @ Pirates (Locke) 11:35 CSN/MLBN

[sneakypower]

I'm *trying* to get you to listen and not do the condescending "lol, Kyle being Kyle" [expletive], because there's an interesting discussion to be had.

 

But you turned it into yet another NSBB [expletive] riff, just like you did then. Don't start the condescension if you don't want it thrown back.

You're telling people you know better than them and then changing the issue when they're asking you to show your work.

 

It's bizarre.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You're telling people you know better than them and then changing the issue when they're asking you to show your work.

 

It's bizarre.

 

That's not remotely what's happening here.

 

My argument: "Jorge Soler is exhibiting poor results in contact rate, which I project will cause him OBP problems later on."

 

Their argument: "He's got extremely high velocity off the bat, which is contributing to his high BABIP, so that should alleviate the problem.

 

My response: "I posit that velocity off the bat in small samples is heavily influenced by short-term variance in quality contact, and Soler has had a ton of positive variance in that regard. It's a brand-new stat, so I don't think we really know how much weight to place on it yet."

 

It's on them to show the work. Or at least not to claim victory when I don't.

[Guest]

You're telling people you know better than them and then changing the issue when they're asking you to show your work.

 

It's bizarre.

 

That's not remotely what's happening here.

 

My argument: "Jorge Soler is exhibiting poor results in contact rate, which I project will cause him OBP problems later on."

 

Their argument: "He's got extremely high velocity off the bat, which is contributing to his high BABIP, so that should alleviate the problem.

 

My response: ""

 

It's on them to show the work. Or at least not to claim victory when I don't.

 

Fixed.

[Guest]

That's really the wrong question. Velocity off the bat is highly correlated with current success. You've agreed with this already.

 

The real questions are whether that statistic is auto-correlative and how long it takes to stabilize.

 

I would argue that batted ball speed is rather obviously and inherently correlated with bat speed and that there's a pretty obvious causal relationship there. Ask any scout and they will agree that Soler generates elite bat speed.

 

I think there's definitely a relationship. I also suspect there's a lot of short-term variance that correlates with hitting line drives, which we know are notoriously fickle.

 

I want to see what Soler's velocity is when he's not hitting 31% line drives, which he won't for very long.

So you're choosing to ignore the argument about an obvious causal factor?

 

Huh? I agreed with it in the first sentence:

 

"I think there's definitely a relationship."

 

What I'm positing is that Soler's trouble making contact will eventually cause him to make less consistent quality contact, and that *may* cancel out some of his ability to create high-velocity contact.

Ah, gotcha. Misunderstood which relationship you were referring to.

 

Since the contact numbers are driving your argument, let's drill into that a little bit. Your argument is that you believe those to be "more stabilized" than the other numbers at this point. If that's true, can you explain the discrepancy between last year's numbers and this year's?

 

Season  Team   O-Swing%  Z-Swing%   Swing%   O-Contact%  Z-Contact%  Contact%
2014    Cubs    32.0 %    64.1 %    45.9 %     59.1 %       81.0 %    72.3 %
2015    Cubs    30.4 %    67.7 %    46.6 %     39.5 %       78.5 %    64.1 %

 

Soler is swinging at more strikes this year and fewer pitches outside the zone (both by small margins). He is making slightly less contact within the zone, but within an expected margin of error. What is clearly different this year is contact outside the zone. Now, your argument essentially boils down to that O-Contact% being a significant change from previous performance without giving an explanation for what has changed.

 

What everyone else is suggesting is to give this a little more time instead of rushing to judgement when the season is still early, we played against a bunch of tough right handers in a row, and he is clearly bothered in his first real exposure to playing baseball in cold weather. Maybe, just maybe, that o-contact % for 2015 isn't as stable as you believe.

[DiamondMind]

That's the "Hmm, maybe you should start listening to people who understand contact rate and what it means better than you" argument. But you won't, and that's OK I guess. Lead a horse to water and all.

 

 

http://31.media.tumblr.com/528c424f6dc7af733cb4d3c9223d46c0/tumblr_n3w6pra0eL1qzxbu6o1_500.gif

[Guest]

That's the I love Lake despite contact rate argument? hahahahahahahaha

 

That's the "Hmm, maybe you should start listening to people who understand contact rate and what it means better than you" argument. But you won't, and that's OK I guess. Lead a horse to water and all.

 

It's pretty breathtaking that you found a way to take a topic that we directionally agreed on(Junior Lake is not good) but not necessarily in magnitude and extrapolate it into intellectual superiority over a tangential and much broader topic. Well done.

 

I'm *trying* to get you to listen and not do the condescending "lol, Kyle being Kyle" [expletive], because there's an interesting discussion to be had.

 

But you turned it into yet another NSBB [expletive] riff, just like you did then. Don't start the condescension if you don't want it thrown back.

 

There isn't an interesting discussion to be had here, that's part of the reason behind my flippant approach here in response to the game thread shrieking. It's also not an interesting discussion because an interesting discussion requires some level of intellectual honesty, which history and this particular thread shows you choose to either ignore or only acknowledge after umpteen replies to the contrary.

 

In all seriousness, when you can't understand that "Junior Lake has physical tools that could cause him to buck contact rate trends, let's give him a roster spot instead of Darnell McDonald" is not the same argument as "Jorge Soler hits the bejeesus out of the ball and has a pretty disciplined approach so I'm not worried about him slumping/missing a few pitches in the short term", it's difficult to proceed.

 

I do apologize for being overly flippant about contact rate to start with, I grouped that in with the rest of the game thread silliness and that wasn't right. It's a tipping point/pet peeve for me that people are focusing in on peripherals of peripherals(in a 15 game sample no less) without understanding how they're composed. When you work deep counts and swing really hard and are really talented, you can fall in to the extremes in various peripherals. Especially in a small sample(and I'll pre-emptively agree to disagree about stabilization) it doesn't mean that there's a tidal wave of regression coming. It also doesn't mean there's zero problems, but wait and see isn't great for discussion.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm definitely open to the argument that last year shows a higher level of contact ability that he can eventually get back to. I brought it up myself early on.

 

Why is this year difference? I'd love to hear a scouting component, because it seems to me that he's just getting wrecked by sliders rather than laying off them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There isn't an interesting discussion to be had here, that's part of the reason behind my flippant approach here in response to the game thread shrieking. It's also not an interesting discussion because an interesting discussion requires some level of intellectual honesty, which history and this particular thread shows you choose to either ignore or only acknowledge after umpteen replies to the contrary.

 

Nope. You came into this discussion with this exact philosophy, which is why there is no intellectual honesty on one side, and it ain't me.

 

You wanted to do the "sigh, Kyle being Kyle" routine just like you did then.

 

In all seriousness, when you can't understand that "Junior Lake has physical tools that could cause him to buck contact rate trends, let's give him a roster spot instead of Darnell McDonald" is not the same argument as "Jorge Soler hits the bejeesus out of the ball and has a pretty disciplined approach so I'm not worried about him slumping/missing a few pitches in the short term", it's difficult to proceed.

 

Is his plate approach *that* disciplined?

 

My concerns about Soler are based on the same concerns I had about Lake, albeit to a lesser degree. Your dismissals feel an awful lot like the dismissals in the Lake thread. I think the parallel is pretty clear, but ymmv.

 

I do apologize for being overly flippant about contact rate to start with, I grouped that in with the rest of the game thread silliness and that wasn't right. It's a tipping point/pet peeve for me that people are focusing in on peripherals of peripherals(in a 15 game sample no less) without understanding how they're composed. When you work deep counts and swing really hard and are really talented, you can fall in to the extremes in various peripherals. Especially in a small sample(and I'll pre-emptively agree to disagree about stabilization) it doesn't mean that there's a tidal wave of regression coming. It also doesn't mean there's zero problems, but wait and see isn't great for discussion.

 

*hug it out* That paragraph is the best one I've seen from you in this thread.

Edited April 23, 2015 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Guest]

I'm definitely open to the argument that last year shows a higher level of contact ability that he can eventually get back to. I brought it up myself early on.

 

Why is this year difference? I'd love to hear a scouting component, because it seems to me that he's just getting wrecked by sliders rather than laying off them.

*** waiting until you've had time to respond to my post ***

[Tyrant]

You wanted to do the "sigh, Kyle being Kyle" routine just like you did then.

 

you can't really blame people for viewing all of your posts through that lens. you've earned it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm definitely open to the argument that last year shows a higher level of contact ability that he can eventually get back to. I brought it up myself early on.

 

Why is this year difference? I'd love to hear a scouting component, because it seems to me that he's just getting wrecked by sliders rather than laying off them.

*** waiting until you've had time to respond to my post ***

 

That *was* my response to your post.

 

I agree, we don't know for 100% certain that what Soler's done this year is indicative of what he's going to do. I think it's problematic, but certainly not certain.

 

I'm not a huge fan of splitting up contact stats into zone data, especially this early. It stabilizes quickly, but not *so* quickly that we can afford to break it up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You wanted to do the "sigh, Kyle being Kyle" routine just like you did then.

 

you can't really blame people for viewing all of your posts through that lens. you've earned it.

 

*shrug* I disagree, obviously.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And since there's absolutely no way I can win at this point, because it's either going to be "Kyle keeps the argument going forever" or "Kyle ran away," I'll just say that I'm done and see ya'll next game thread.

[Ram1380]

Well, I guess it wasn't just my "black cat" like presence costing the team after all.

 

So Hairyduck = KyleJRM(sp?)....is that right....?

 

Goony= what handle now...?

 

Who/where is Nuts&Gum...?

 

Just trying to "catch up" :D

 

FO needs to turn Welly into a solid RP....fast IMO....especially if Maddon is going to continue to manage games/starters as if our pen is like last years Royals.....was STOKED when we got him....now I am just scratching my head at his approach/decisions/thought process 1/2 the time.

 

Still much more fun than going into every game just hoping they can score a run or 2.

[Guest]

Well, I guess it wasn't just my "black cat" like presence costing the team after all.

 

So Hairyduck = KyleJRM(sp?)....is that right....?

 

Goony= what handle now...?

 

Who/where is Nuts&Gum...?

 

Just trying to "catch up" :D

 

FO needs to turn Welly into a solid RP....fast IMO....especially if Maddon is going to continue to manage games/starters as if our pen is like last years Royals.....was STOKED when we got him....now I am just scratching my head at his approach/decisions/thought process 1/2 the time.

 

Still much more fun than going into every game just hoping they can score a run or 2.

 

Yes Idiot = KyleJRM

 

Goony = jersey cubs fan

 

Nuts&Gum is TheMojoPin is Sammy Sofa

[Guest]

I'm definitely open to the argument that last year shows a higher level of contact ability that he can eventually get back to. I brought it up myself early on.

 

Why is this year difference? I'd love to hear a scouting component, because it seems to me that he's just getting wrecked by sliders rather than laying off them.

*** waiting until you've had time to respond to my post ***

 

That *was* my response to your post.

 

I agree, we don't know for 100% certain that what Soler's done this year is indicative of what he's going to do. I think it's problematic, but certainly not certain.

 

I'm not a huge fan of splitting up contact stats into zone data, especially this early. It stabilizes quickly, but not *so* quickly that we can afford to break it up.

lol - What you wrote there could have been the response to several.

 

I posited two potential causal factors outside of "he sucks this year": we've faced an inordinate number of tough righties and also this is the first time he's ever played in cold weather and it is clearly impacting him.

 

If he's getting wrecked by sliders this year, it isn't when they're in the zone. And he's (so far) chasing a little less than last year. He already had decent discipline for a slugger, so his approach hasn't really been a concern. I'm willing to cut him some slack and take another look at the numbers when he isn't in the middle of a contact slump.

[Guest]

Well, I guess it wasn't just my "black cat" like presence costing the team after all.

 

So Hairyduck = KyleJRM(sp?)....is that right....?

 

Goony= what handle now...?

 

Who/where is Nuts&Gum...?

 

Just trying to "catch up" :D

 

FO needs to turn Welly into a solid RP....fast IMO....especially if Maddon is going to continue to manage games/starters as if our pen is like last years Royals.....was STOKED when we got him....now I am just scratching my head at his approach/decisions/thought process 1/2 the time.

 

Still much more fun than going into every game just hoping they can score a run or 2.

goony = Jersey Cubs Fan

N&G = sammy sofa

[Ram1380]

Well, I guess it wasn't just my "black cat" like presence costing the team after all.

 

So Hairyduck = KyleJRM(sp?)....is that right....?

 

Goony= what handle now...?

 

Who/where is Nuts&Gum...?

 

Just trying to "catch up" :D

 

FO needs to turn Welly into a solid RP....fast IMO....especially if Maddon is going to continue to manage games/starters as if our pen is like last years Royals.....was STOKED when we got him....now I am just scratching my head at his approach/decisions/thought process 1/2 the time.

 

Still much more fun than going into every game just hoping they can score a run or 2.

 

Yes Idiot = KyleJRM

 

Goony = jersey cubs fan

 

Nuts&Gum is TheMojoPin is Sammy Sofa

 

 

Thank you fine sir.

[Ram1380]

Well, I guess it wasn't just my "black cat" like presence costing the team after all.

 

So Hairyduck = KyleJRM(sp?)....is that right....?

 

Goony= what handle now...?

 

Who/where is Nuts&Gum...?

 

Just trying to "catch up" :D

 

FO needs to turn Welly into a solid RP....fast IMO....especially if Maddon is going to continue to manage games/starters as if our pen is like last years Royals.....was STOKED when we got him....now I am just scratching my head at his approach/decisions/thought process 1/2 the time.

 

Still much more fun than going into every game just hoping they can score a run or 2.

goony = Jersey Cubs Fan

N&G = sammy sofa

 

Thanks to you as well my good man.....also. thanks for the great site, if I haven't said so in the past.

 

It REALLY is/has been one of the best on the web for it's intended purpose.

[Guest]

Well, I guess it wasn't just my "black cat" like presence costing the team after all.

 

So Hairyduck = KyleJRM(sp?)....is that right....?

 

Goony= what handle now...?

 

Who/where is Nuts&Gum...?

 

Just trying to "catch up" :D

 

FO needs to turn Welly into a solid RP....fast IMO....especially if Maddon is going to continue to manage games/starters as if our pen is like last years Royals.....was STOKED when we got him....now I am just scratching my head at his approach/decisions/thought process 1/2 the time.

 

Still much more fun than going into every game just hoping they can score a run or 2.

goony = Jersey Cubs Fan

N&G = sammy sofa

 

Thanks to you as well my good man.....also. thanks for the great site, if I haven't said so in the past.

 

It REALLY is/has been one of the best on the web for it's intended purpose.

aww, shucks. Thanks!

[Ram1380]

Well, I guess it wasn't just my "black cat" like presence costing the team after all.

 

So Hairyduck = KyleJRM(sp?)....is that right....?

 

Goony= what handle now...?

 

Who/where is Nuts&Gum...?

 

Just trying to "catch up" :D

 

FO needs to turn Welly into a solid RP....fast IMO....especially if Maddon is going to continue to manage games/starters as if our pen is like last years Royals.....was STOKED when we got him....now I am just scratching my head at his approach/decisions/thought process 1/2 the time.

 

Still much more fun than going into every game just hoping they can score a run or 2.

goony = Jersey Cubs Fan

N&G = sammy sofa

 

Thanks to you as well my good man.....also. thanks for the great site, if I haven't said so in the past.

 

It REALLY is/has been one of the best on the web for it's intended purpose.

aww, shucks. Thanks!

 

http://angergeneral.com/forum/images/smilies/oBhebxW.png

[DiamondMind]

And since there's absolutely no way I can win at this point...

 

why do you have to 'win'?

[jersey cubs fan]

And since there's absolutely no way I can win at this point...

 

why do you have to 'win'?

This is the game of thrones, you either win or you die.

[imb]

Only Kyle could turn a "cheating wife who abandoned her unemployable husband with an autistic son" a sympathetic figure.

[Guest]

Only Kyle could turn a "cheating wife who abandoned her unemployable husband with an autistic son" a sympathetic figure.

 

I <3 you