4/23 Cubs (Hendricks) @ Pirates (Locke) 11:35 CSN/MLBN

[jersey cubs fan]

holy sniping batman

 

 

 

enough with this cliquish behavior

[Tyrant]

I love how Junior Lake made you look so dumb on this exact subject 15 months ago, and you just double down with the same misunderstandings.

 

i wish you'd acknowledge at all the many many times you've looked like a [expletive] moron if you're going to call out one of the most knowledgeable and best posters here

 

He may be one of the more level-headed, by he is wrong as often as any of us and I am not going to genuflect.

 

no one is wrong more than you dude. no one.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

it really is too bad Junior Lake didn't become the sure-fire superstar that TT guaranteed he'd be

 

fwiw, there's a strong likelihood the NL ROY will have a contact rate in the low-mid 60s this year

 

If he's going to pull the same "raw talent, line drives, I don't care about contact rate, you are being such a Kyle" argument as he did before, I think it's fair to reference it.

 

You can have a contact rate in the mid-60s if you have an amazing batting eye and amazing power. Neither of those apply to Jorge Soler.

 

The underlying numbers say Soler is performing like someone headed for a .280-300 OBP. He can still be a useful player at that number, but it's worth noting.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

no one is wrong more than you dude. no one.

 

False.

[Guest]

 

no one is wrong more than you dude. no one.

 

False.

 

In sheer volume, you know that's not true.

[SouthSideRyan]

This one with a larger sample size from 4/20

 

That is a very difficult to read graph, but it would really seem pretty obvious. This is a full on bored Kyle troll.

[sneakypower]

You can have a contact rate in the mid-60s if you have an amazing batting eye and amazing power.

fully agreed.

 

Neither of those apply to Jorge Soler.

http://persephonemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/chris-rock-huh-face.gif

Edited April 23, 2015 by sneakypower

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

no one is wrong more than you dude. no one.

 

False.

 

In sheer volume, you know that's not true.

 

I'm right about this.

[Banedon]

 

no one is wrong more than you dude. no one.

 

False.

 

http://futureisfiction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/thatssotrue_3749_1331166173.gif

[SouthSideRyan]

enough with this cliquish behavior

 

Who are you again?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You can have a contact rate in the mid-60s if you have an amazing batting eye and amazing power.

fully agreed.

 

Neither of those apply to Jorge Soler.

http://persephonemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/chris-rock-huh-face.gif

 

His power isn't as good as you think it is. It's good, but not Bryant levels of good.

[sneakypower]

i'm really just trying to get you to say as many stupid things as possible to laugh at later on

[Guest]

I love how Junior Lake made you look so dumb on this exact subject 15 months ago, and you just double down with the same misunderstandings.

 

lol okay, kyle on man, kyle on

 

Same attitude you had when we discussed Lake.

 

Soler's has better patience, better power and a better track record last year, so I don't expect a full Lake-level implosion. But be is going to be an OBP problem sooner than later.

 

You're either confusing me for someone else, extrapolating some mildly positive comment on Lake into way way more than it actually is, or both.

 

To be more clear, I don't care what the contact rates are for Soler, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, or anyone else with the terrific power those guys have. Contact rate in isolation is abstracted away from what the hitter is actually trying to do, it's like looking at K rate in isolation(since Ks can be side effects of both HR/power and BBs) except it's even further removed from the actual incentives.

[sneakypower]

Jorge Soler's power: just "good"

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i'm really just trying to get you to say as many stupid things as possible to laugh at later on

 

Speaking of people who were condescending assholes in the Junior Lake argument who might have learned a lesson but are instead doubling down on their ignorance...

[Guest]

This one with a larger sample size from 4/20

 

That is a very difficult to read graph, but it would really seem pretty obvious. This is a full on bored Kyle troll.

 

Yes, I couldn't believe I was having to post it. And yes, I'm not sure why they used a bunch of colors so close to eachother.

[jersey cubs fan]

His power isn't as good as you think it is. It's good, but not Bryant levels of good.

 

There can be only one.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You're either confusing me for someone else, extrapolating some mildly positive comment on Lake into way way more than it actually is, or both.

 

Nope. I'm a psycho and keep track of this because I got tired of "Oh, TT is on this side of the argument, everyone stop, it's settled."

 

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=62690&hilit=junior+lake&start=25

 

Of players with 250 MLB PA last year, Lake was 5th in LD%.

 

Lake can be a talented and very flawed player and potentially be useful. He certainly might not, but the idea that we need to protect the value of the MLB roster by keeping him off it in lieu of Darnell McDonald or Casper Wells is absurd.

 

Line Drive % is mostly fluky. Swing-and-miss% isn't. When they are telling us two different things, I know which one is the smart money on listening to.

 

This is such a pointlessly extreme place to take this opinion. You're smart enough to know that Lake has the talent to not be the perfect peripheral player and still have utility, which leads to the more important point. Lake can regress quite a ways and still be useful, he's coming from a performance that's well above average. He could regress to league average performance and still be one of the 3 best OF on the roster. He could regress all the way to a 1 win player and still probably be a solid platoon option in the OF. But no, because the peripherals are fluky that means he's a guaranteed -1 win drag on the roster, so we should replace him with NRI flotsam just to prevent this relative disaster. Even though the alternatives are just as likely to be the Lillibridge that someone freaks out over in late April, just without any upside.

 

This is the discussion that started when I said we should cut Junior Lake in ST, because he was a -1 WAR waiting to happen and we'd all say "well, we had to give him a chance." You acted like that was an absurd prediction. And then Junior Lake went on to a -0.9 fWAR.

 

I'm still right. Quality of contact is subject to wild variations. Consistency of contact much less so. People who won't accept this will keep being wrong when situations like this come up.

 

When a player is making amazing but sporadic contact, it's going to balance out in favor of the whiffs rather than the liners.

[Guest]

That's the I love Lake despite contact rate argument? hahahahahahahaha

[sneakypower]

i'm really just trying to get you to say as many stupid things as possible to laugh at later on

 

Speaking of people who were condescending [expletive] in the Junior Lake argument who might have learned a lesson but are instead doubling down on their ignorance...

i made a well-reasoned post that basically said if he makes good adjustments he can be Starling Marte and if he doesn't he can be (at the time) BJ Upton, the latter of which unfortunately happened

 

it's not my fault you're so bad at reading comprehension / understanding nuanced viewpoints

[sneakypower]

Soler's in 93rd percentile of steamer ROS HR per PA

 

or as i like to call that, "good"

[Banedon]

Clearly Kyle is right. Soler is just Junior Lake in a Scooby Doo villain disguise, and must be cut immediately.

[Guest]

You're either confusing me for someone else, extrapolating some mildly positive comment on Lake into way way more than it actually is, or both.

 

Nope. I'm a psycho and keep track of this because I got tired of "Oh, TT is on this side of the argument, everyone stop, it's settled."

 

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=62690&hilit=junior+lake&start=25

 

For a half a second I was SO [expletive] confused when I clicked the spoiler on mojo's reply to me and it was that pic from the other night.

 

Like did this [expletive] really go back to this random ass post and put that there?

 

lmaooo

Edited April 23, 2015 by David

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This one with a larger sample size from 4/20

 

That is a very difficult to read graph, but it would really seem pretty obvious. This is a full on bored Kyle troll.

 

Yes, I couldn't believe I was having to post it. And yes, I'm not sure why they used a bunch of colors so close to eachother.

 

You're not listening.

 

Nobody is questioning the correlation between quality of contact and results.

 

I'm explaining to you that quality of contact on balls in play takes *years* to balance out and isn't meaningful in short-term samples.

 

It's like trying to explain to someone that clutch-hitting isn't much of a skill, and they posted a chart that shows that BA w RISP is correlated with scoring.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Clearly Kyle is right. Soler is just Junior Lake in a Scooby Doo villain disguise, and must be cut immediately.

 

Quality contribution.

 

All I'm saying is that Soler's exhibiting the signs of an impending OBP problem.