4/23 Cubs (Hendricks) @ Pirates (Locke) 11:35 CSN/MLBN

[Guest]

This one with a larger sample size from 4/20

 

That is a very difficult to read graph, but it would really seem pretty obvious. This is a full on bored Kyle troll.

 

Yes, I couldn't believe I was having to post it. And yes, I'm not sure why they used a bunch of colors so close to eachother.

 

You're not listening.

 

Nobody is questioning the correlation between quality of contact and results.

 

I'm explaining to you that quality of contact on balls in play takes *years* to balance out and isn't meaningful in short-term samples.

 

It's like trying to explain to someone that clutch-hitting isn't much of a skill, and they posted a chart that shows that BA w RISP is correlated with scoring.

 

you're right, prob a coincidence that soler and bryant already have so many of the hardest hit balls in baseball

[Hairyducked Idiot]

you're right, prob a coincidence that soler and bryant already have so many of the hardest hit balls in baseball

 

It's partially a coincidence.

[sneakypower]

I'm explaining to you that quality of contact on balls in play takes *years* to balance out and isn't meaningful in short-term samples.

 

It's like trying to explain to someone that clutch-hitting isn't much of a skill, and they posted a chart that shows that BA w RISP is correlated with scoring.

ok show me right here and now where it supports what you're saying about speed-off-bat data

 

i'll leave you some time for quick, hopeful Googling

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's the I love Lake despite contact rate argument? hahahahahahahaha

 

That's the "Hmm, maybe you should start listening to people who understand contact rate and what it means better than you" argument. But you won't, and that's OK I guess. Lead a horse to water and all.

[JonJayCutler]

http://i.imgur.com/egbVHi4.gif

 

Yep.

[Guest]

I'm explaining to you that quality of contact on balls in play takes *years* to balance out and isn't meaningful in short-term samples.

 

It's like trying to explain to someone that clutch-hitting isn't much of a skill, and they posted a chart that shows that BA w RISP is correlated with scoring.

ok show me right here and now where it supports what you're saying about speed-off-bat data

 

i'll leave you some time for quick, hopeful Googling

 

with as many instances as there are you would think it wouldn't take long to have meaningful data. certainly not years.

[Guest]

Clearly Kyle is right. Soler is just Junior Lake in a Scooby Doo villain disguise, and must be cut immediately.

 

Quality contribution.

 

All I'm saying is that Soler's exhibiting the signs of an impending OBP problem.

By taking early season results during a slump.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm explaining to you that quality of contact on balls in play takes *years* to balance out and isn't meaningful in short-term samples.

 

It's like trying to explain to someone that clutch-hitting isn't much of a skill, and they posted a chart that shows that BA w RISP is correlated with scoring.

ok show me right here and now where it supports what you're saying about speed-off-bat data

 

i'll leave you some time for quick, hopeful Googling

 

Not my job.

 

If someone wants to assert that velocity off the bat predicts future success, and I doubt it, it's not on me to disprove it.

[sneakypower]

you're transparently conflating LD-rate* analysis from years back with this argument, which has no bearing on this discussion

 

*a stat which can view Aaron Miles and vintage Pujols in equal light

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Clearly Kyle is right. Soler is just Junior Lake in a Scooby Doo villain disguise, and must be cut immediately.

 

Quality contribution.

 

All I'm saying is that Soler's exhibiting the signs of an impending OBP problem.

By taking early season results during a slump.

 

By looking at peripherals that are notoriously predictive in small samples and ignoring the ones that aren't.

[sneakypower]

I'm explaining to you that quality of contact on balls in play takes *years* to balance out and isn't meaningful in short-term samples.

 

It's like trying to explain to someone that clutch-hitting isn't much of a skill, and they posted a chart that shows that BA w RISP is correlated with scoring.

ok show me right here and now where it supports what you're saying about speed-off-bat data

 

i'll leave you some time for quick, hopeful Googling

 

Not my job.

 

If someone wants to assert that velocity off the bat predicts future success, and I doubt it, it's not on me to disprove it.

and there it is.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

with as many instances as there are you would think it wouldn't take long to have meaningful data. certainly not years.

 

It's the old "round bat/round ball" thing playing out.

 

Once the ball is in play and hit forward, the quality of contact is pretty good. The difference between a line drive, ground ball and fly ball in terms of where the bat hits the ball are so tiny that it's subject to wild fluctuations. There's real skill there, but it's like a pitcher's skill to control BIP: it gets drowned out by the noise a lot.

 

I don't know for certain that velocity-of-the-bat is comparable, but I do know that it's a very new stat and I'm not going to start slurping over it until it's proven useful.

[sontensei]

Clearly Kyle is right. Soler is just Junior Lake in a Scooby Doo villain disguise, and must be cut immediately.

 

Quality contribution.

 

All I'm saying is that Soler's exhibiting the signs of an impending OBP problem.

By taking early season results during a slump.

 

By looking at peripherals that are notoriously predictive in small samples and ignoring the ones that aren't.

 

this is stupid soler, bryant will be fine they hit rockets. im totally with others who said that mask is messing up his mojo...

 

russell on the other hand needs to learn how to take some walks.

[Guest]

I'm explaining to you that quality of contact on balls in play takes *years* to balance out and isn't meaningful in short-term samples.

 

It's like trying to explain to someone that clutch-hitting isn't much of a skill, and they posted a chart that shows that BA w RISP is correlated with scoring.

ok show me right here and now where it supports what you're saying about speed-off-bat data

 

i'll leave you some time for quick, hopeful Googling

 

Not my job.

 

If someone wants to assert that velocity off the bat predicts future success, and I doubt it, it's not on me to disprove it.

That's really the wrong question. Velocity off the bat is highly correlated with current success. You've agreed with this already.

 

The real questions are whether that statistic is auto-correlative and how long it takes to stabilize.

 

I would argue that batted ball speed is rather obviously and inherently correlated with bat speed and that there's a pretty obvious causal relationship there. Ask any scout and they will agree that Soler generates elite bat speed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

and there it is.

 

I love how it never even occurs to you that I might understand the issue better than you do.

 

Remember when I tried to explain to you that all those things Junior Lake was doing well were flukes?

 

so...

hitting line drives (28%; top-5 in MLB, min. 250 PA) and

having the speed to leg out IF hits (24%, best in baseball) and

bunting for hits (7/11 att)

 

are all just unpredictable elements of luck now

 

ok, i'll agree with your assessment- if you take away every talent he has, he is kind of [expletive]

 

 

Fluke, fluke, unsustainable fluke, yes.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's really the wrong question. Velocity off the bat is highly correlated with current success. You've agreed with this already.

 

The real questions are whether that statistic is auto-correlative and how long it takes to stabilize.

 

I would argue that batted ball speed is rather obviously and inherently correlated with bat speed and that there's a pretty obvious causal relationship there. Ask any scout and they will agree that Soler generates elite bat speed.

 

I think there's definitely a relationship. I also suspect there's a lot of short-term variance that correlates with hitting line drives, which we know are notoriously fickle.

 

I want to see what Soler's velocity is when he's not hitting 31% line drives, which he won't for very long.

[Guest]

That's really the wrong question. Velocity off the bat is highly correlated with current success. You've agreed with this already.

 

The real questions are whether that statistic is auto-correlative and how long it takes to stabilize.

 

I would argue that batted ball speed is rather obviously and inherently correlated with bat speed and that there's a pretty obvious causal relationship there. Ask any scout and they will agree that Soler generates elite bat speed.

 

I think there's definitely a relationship. I also suspect there's a lot of short-term variance that correlates with hitting line drives, which we know are notoriously fickle.

 

I want to see what Soler's velocity is when he's not hitting 31% line drives, which he won't for very long.

So you're choosing to ignore the argument about an obvious causal factor?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's really the wrong question. Velocity off the bat is highly correlated with current success. You've agreed with this already.

 

The real questions are whether that statistic is auto-correlative and how long it takes to stabilize.

 

I would argue that batted ball speed is rather obviously and inherently correlated with bat speed and that there's a pretty obvious causal relationship there. Ask any scout and they will agree that Soler generates elite bat speed.

 

I think there's definitely a relationship. I also suspect there's a lot of short-term variance that correlates with hitting line drives, which we know are notoriously fickle.

 

I want to see what Soler's velocity is when he's not hitting 31% line drives, which he won't for very long.

So you're choosing to ignore the argument about an obvious causal factor?

 

Huh? I agreed with it in the first sentence:

 

"I think there's definitely a relationship."

 

What I'm positing is that Soler's trouble making contact will eventually cause him to make less consistent quality contact, and that *may* cancel out some of his ability to create high-velocity contact.

[Guest]

That's the I love Lake despite contact rate argument? hahahahahahahaha

 

That's the "Hmm, maybe you should start listening to people who understand contact rate and what it means better than you" argument. But you won't, and that's OK I guess. Lead a horse to water and all.

 

It's pretty breathtaking that you found a way to take a topic that we directionally agreed on(Junior Lake is not good) but not necessarily in magnitude and extrapolate it into intellectual superiority over a tangential and much broader topic. Well done.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's the I love Lake despite contact rate argument? hahahahahahahaha

 

That's the "Hmm, maybe you should start listening to people who understand contact rate and what it means better than you" argument. But you won't, and that's OK I guess. Lead a horse to water and all.

 

It's pretty breathtaking that you found a way to take a topic that we directionally agreed on(Junior Lake is not good) but not necessarily in magnitude and extrapolate it into intellectual superiority over a tangential and much broader topic. Well done.

 

I'm *trying* to get you to listen and not do the condescending "lol, Kyle being Kyle" [expletive], because there's an interesting discussion to be had.

 

But you turned it into yet another NSBB [expletive] riff, just like you did then. Don't start the condescension if you don't want it thrown back.

[Guest]

That's the I love Lake despite contact rate argument? hahahahahahahaha

 

That's the "Hmm, maybe you should start listening to people who understand contact rate and what it means better than you" argument. But you won't, and that's OK I guess. Lead a horse to water and all.

 

It's pretty breathtaking that you found a way to take a topic that we directionally agreed on(Junior Lake is not good) but not necessarily in magnitude and extrapolate it into intellectual superiority over a tangential and much broader topic. Well done.

 

I'm *trying* to get you to listen and not do the condescending "lol, Kyle being Kyle" [expletive], because there's an interesting discussion to be had.

 

But you turned it into yet another NSBB [expletive] riff, just like you did then. Don't start the condescension if you don't want it thrown back.

 

And you did this by posting this:

 

32.3K% going into today for Soler, we've now reached Baez levels.

I'm telling myself it's SSS combined with he appears to be affected by the cold more than other guys

 

But velocity off the bat!

[NonProfitCow]

I'm *trying* to get you to listen and not do the condescending "lol, Kyle being Kyle" [expletive], because there's an interesting discussion to be had.

 

But you turned it into yet another NSBB [expletive] riff, just like you did then. Don't start the condescension if you don't want it thrown back.

You're telling people you know better than them and then changing the issue when they're asking you to show your work.

 

It's bizarre.

[sneakypower]

and there it is.

 

I love how it never even occurs to you that I might understand the issue better than you do.

 

Remember when I tried to explain to you that all those things Junior Lake was doing well were flukes?

 

so...

hitting line drives (28%; top-5 in MLB, min. 250 PA) and

having the speed to leg out IF hits (24%, best in baseball) and

bunting for hits (7/11 att)

 

are all just unpredictable elements of luck now

 

ok, i'll agree with your assessment- if you take away every talent he has, he is kind of [expletive]

 

 

Fluke, fluke, unsustainable fluke, yes.

yeah, there i argued he would be a high BABIP player and he has a .331 career BABIP and ZiPS projects him for a .331 BABIP which is 95th percentile

[sneakypower]

That's the I love Lake despite contact rate argument? hahahahahahahaha

 

That's the "Hmm, maybe you should start listening to people who understand contact rate and what it means better than you" argument. But you won't, and that's OK I guess. Lead a horse to water and all.

 

It's pretty breathtaking that you found a way to take a topic that we directionally agreed on(Junior Lake is not good) but not necessarily in magnitude and extrapolate it into intellectual superiority over a tangential and much broader topic. Well done.

 

I'm *trying* to get you to listen and not do the condescending "lol, Kyle being Kyle" [expletive], because there's an interesting discussion to be had.

 

But you turned it into yet another NSBB [expletive] riff, just like you did then. Don't start the condescension if you don't want it thrown back.

 

And you did this by posting this:

 

32.3K% going into today for Soler, we've now reached Baez levels.

I'm telling myself it's SSS combined with he appears to be affected by the cold more than other guys

 

But velocity off the bat!

"i'm right and you're wrong"

 

...

 

"why doesn't anybody want to have meaningful conversation with me???"

[sontensei]

That's really the wrong question. Velocity off the bat is highly correlated with current success. You've agreed with this already.

 

The real questions are whether that statistic is auto-correlative and how long it takes to stabilize.

 

I would argue that batted ball speed is rather obviously and inherently correlated with bat speed and that there's a pretty obvious causal relationship there. Ask any scout and they will agree that Soler generates elite bat speed.

 

I think there's definitely a relationship. I also suspect there's a lot of short-term variance that correlates with hitting line drives, which we know are notoriously fickle.

 

I want to see what Soler's velocity is when he's not hitting 31% line drives, which he won't for very long.

So you're choosing to ignore the argument about an obvious causal factor?

 

Huh? I agreed with it in the first sentence:

 

"I think there's definitely a relationship."

 

What I'm positing is that Soler's trouble making contact will eventually cause him to make less consistent quality contact, and that *may* cancel out some of his ability to create high-velocity contact.

 

How do you statistically factor in that his mask is [expletive] him up?