Friedman to the Dodgers

[Guest]

Cameron on the move: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/moneyball-comes-to-la-dodgers-hire-andrew-friedman/

 

For those who don't want to read, the bullet points:

 

- Moneyballish strategies are often mentioned as the poor team's weapon to fight back, but high payroll teams have been using analytics for just as long(e.g. Red Sox)

- Friedman's hire may indicate that the Dodgers don't intend to keep payroll this high(links to Plaschke report that they may want to get below 200 million), the luxury tax isn't a trivial deterrent.

- As a result, this is a great move for Dodger fans, but not a death knell for the National League.

[jersey cubs fan]

Cameron on the move: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/moneyball-comes-to-la-dodgers-hire-andrew-friedman/

 

For those who don't want to read, the bullet points:

 

- Moneyballish strategies are often mentioned as the poor team's weapon to fight back, but high payroll teams have been using analytics for just as long(e.g. Red Sox)

- Friedman's hire may indicate that the Dodgers don't intend to keep payroll this high(links to Plaschke report that they may want to get below 200 million), the luxury tax isn't a trivial deterrent.

- As a result, this is a great move for Dodger fans, but not a death knell for the National League.

 

I would not say "just as long", Boston started doing things differently in the early 2000s, but they were just like a lot of other teams under Duquette. Beane and Alderson were doing their things in the 90s. But yeah that makes a lot of sense. I was under the impression that LA's payroll was inflated in a marketing move upon launch of the new network.

 

But the Yankees have been supposed to be cutting back big time for 5 years now without actually doing it. My guess is LA won't be willing to tolerate the inevitable losing that would happen if they drastically cut payroll and they will instead just hold steady or trim here and there.

[Guest]

Yeah, I'm skeptical that they'd tie themselves too closely to the luxury tax given their financial advantages(remember when the Yankees weren't going to get Tanaka so they could reset the luxury tax clock?), but I do think you can infer that they probably aren't going to continue to escalate payroll to 250 million and beyond. Like Cameron mentions, writing a 20-30 million dollar luxury tax check after having the world's most expensive middle relievers tank on you isn't a great pill to swallow.

 

Personally, I'm really curious to see what Friedman does, especially come 2016-17. He doesn't have much of a blank slate because he has several stars in place(Kershaw, Greinke, Puig), and several more big contracts that are untradeable without taking on huge money(Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, Gonzalez), but if that payroll is coming down at all he may need to get creative to make it work(165 million for 10 guys in '16 & '17). Len made a good point on Twitter about how low payrolls enforce discipline that can sometimes work to your benefit. A prospect failing hurts short term, but a failed 9 figure signing hurts long term too. Friedman's never really signed a big FA contract as a GM, wonder how he'll approach them.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd imagine Kemp could be traded without them picking up a dime. Maybe even get something interesting in return.

[Guest]

I could maybe see that come the trade deadline if he continues to hit, but 5/107 is a pretty big gamble on his second half for a near-DH with his injury problems, and age.

[Sammy Sofa]

Alright, let's flashback and pretend both Friedman and Theo were available to the Cubs and we know ahead of time about the travails of #poortomricketts. Who would you all prefer the Cubs to have gone with given the relatively spendthrift era to come?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Alright, let's flashback and pretend both Friedman and Theo were available to the Cubs and we know ahead of time about the travails of #poortomricketts. Who would you all prefer the Cubs to have gone with given the relatively spendthrift era to come?

 

Wanted Friedman more then and want him more now.

 

Epstein was on my list of "saber-savvy ideal candidates," but he wasn't at the top of that list.

[Sammy Sofa]

I would have been ecstatic with either at the time, but in hindsight I wish it was Friedman.

[Guest]

Alright, let's flashback and pretend both Friedman and Theo were available to the Cubs and we know ahead of time about the travails of #poortomricketts. Who would you all prefer the Cubs to have gone with given the relatively spendthrift era to come?

 

Wanted Friedman more then and want him more now.

 

Epstein was on my list of "saber-savvy ideal candidates," but he wasn't at the top of that list.

 

theo was my dream candidate then and i wouldn't want anybody else. initially wanted friedman because i thought he was the most likely of the top guys to leave. wanted cashman the least of the rumored names.

 

and i could have sworn there have been questions as to what friedman actually does for the rays and that a lot of the baseball stuff might be owed to other members of that FO

 

obviously would've been ecstatic with friedman too, though.

 

 

edit - wait, i forgot that colletti was actually a rumored name thanks to phil rogers iirc. LOL. i change cashman to that.

Edited October 14, 2014 by David

[Guest]

also, our FO owned theirs this summer on trading their starter with 1.5 years left. yeah yeah, hammel yada yada.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

also, our FO owned theirs this summer on trading their starter with 1.5 years left. yeah yeah, hammel yada yada.

 

Their front office owned our front office in "not finishing last" yet again.

[Guest]

oh and there's the huge plus that theo came with mcleod

[Guest]

also, our FO owned theirs this summer on trading their starter with 1.5 years left. yeah yeah, hammel yada yada.

 

Their front office owned our front office in "not finishing last" yet again.

 

lol why do you think this stupidity you like to spout is going to work on me?

[Guest]

also, our FO owned theirs this summer on trading their starter with 1.5 years left. yeah yeah, hammel yada yada.

 

Their front office owned our front office in "not finishing last" yet again.

 

lol seriously though what a stupid [expletive] reply ahahahahaha

[Hairyducked Idiot]

also, our FO owned theirs this summer on trading their starter with 1.5 years left. yeah yeah, hammel yada yada.

 

Their front office owned our front office in "not finishing last" yet again.

 

lol why do you think this stupidity you like to spout is going to work on me?

 

I keep hoping it gets through to you that finishing in last place is bad.

[Guest]

In 2011 I'm pretty sure Friedman was my preference. Now I'm not sure if I have strong feelings about that choice. Friedman would probably have the team in slightly better shape than Theo/Jed, but Theo/Jed are probably better equipped to navigate the large market decisions that are coming starting this offseason.

 

Reading the Fangraphs comments on that previous article, there's an interesting comparison of Friedman to Towers in San Diego. Both primarily built their teams on shrewd trades and Towers was not able to replicate that success in a different org.

 

Someone else pointed out that the Rays have drafted pretty poorly in recent years. Only 1 player drafted by the Rays since 2007 has gotten more than 1 bWAR for his career(Kiermaier). For reference, the Cubs have had five > 1 bWAR guys in that timeframe. In the 2011 draft they had TWELVE of the top 89 picks, only the first(Guerrieri) made this year's Rays Top 10(which is as bad as it's been in a long time) and he was coming off TJS and only pitched in rookie ball.

 

Next year's team has 27.5 million committed to DeJesus, Hanigan, Balfour, Loney, and Escobar. Those 5 combined for 2.6 fWAR and will take up nearly half the team's payroll in 2015. As the argument goes, the Rays are right about 2007 on the A's trajectory. They've taken that step back, and there's no immediate reason to think there's a huge progression coming.

 

Now that's more of the pessimist's view of Friedman's work, after all he leaves Tampa with a great young rotation, several offensive cornerstones, and they have their share of bounceback candidates. Interesting to think about though.

[Guest]

also, our FO owned theirs this summer on trading their starter with 1.5 years left. yeah yeah, hammel yada yada.

 

Their front office owned our front office in "not finishing last" yet again.

 

lol why do you think this stupidity you like to spout is going to work on me?

 

I keep hoping it gets through to you that finishing in last place is bad.

 

seriously, just stop.

[Sammy Sofa]

For [expletive]'s sake, Kyle.

[treebird]

kyle is just a troll and you all know this. for the millionth time, if you must engage him, please don't him.

[Tracer Bullet]

Alright, let's flashback and pretend both Friedman and Theo were available to the Cubs and we know ahead of time about the travails of #poortomricketts. Who would you all prefer the Cubs to have gone with given the relatively spendthrift era to come?

 

Do I get to know that Theo/Jed would draft like [expletive] badasses? I honestly don't remember and would have likely been thrilled with either.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

kyle is just a troll and you all know this. for the millionth time, if you must engage him, please don't him.

 

People who think of factual statements as trolling reveal their own character.

[Guest]

I don't really think this matters much vis-a-vis the Cubs. That is unless the Dodgers stop acting like a big market team or the Cubs start.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Alright, let's flashback and pretend both Friedman and Theo were available to the Cubs and we know ahead of time about the travails of #poortomricketts. Who would you all prefer the Cubs to have gone with given the relatively spendthrift era to come?

 

Do I get to know that Theo/Jed would draft like [expletive] badasses? I honestly don't remember and would have likely been thrilled with either.

 

Have they?

 

I mean, sure, Kris Bryant being amazingly awesome (and assuming the contact issues don't Olt/Jackson him) and that pretty much overshadows everything else.

 

And maybe I'm being overly pessimistic on Almora.

 

And I like their "bat first pick, then volume of arms" approach.

 

But I just don't know if I see enough to think their drafts are *that* great. As of right now, I'd put the over/under on useful MLBers out of the 2012 draft at 1.5. Same for 2013. That's solid but not extraordinary.

[davell]

I'd imagine Kemp could be traded without them picking up a dime. Maybe even get something interesting in return.

 

I'm pretty sure he passed thru waivers unclaimed in August. But they wouldn't just dump him anyway.

[ScrubMD]

I wanted Friedman at the time, now it'd be a toss-up. I've soured on Friedman slightly (from best in the league, to like, 3rd) and I really like what Theo has done, building this horde of monster hitting prospects.