BA's NWL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The article will be posted tomorrow but here are the Cubs in the top 20:

 

6. OF Jeffrey Baez

9. C/OF Mark Zagunis

14. RHP Erick Leal

18. OF Rashard Crawford

 

The top 5:

 

1. SS Franklin Barreto, Blue Jays

2. SS Christian Arroyo, Giants

3. LHP Jairo Labourt, Blue Jays

4. RHP Miguel Castro, Blue Jays

5. SS Trea Turner, Padres

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Pretty surprised Leal made it.

[Guest]

6. Jeffrey Baez, of, Boise (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 180. Signed: Venezuela, 2010.

 

Baez signed for $350,000 and had progressed slowly prior to having his best season in 2014. Somewhat squat-bodied but with strength, he has plenty of tools, including a plus arm, plus raw power and plus speed.

 

Baez led Boise in home runs (seven) despite earning a promotion to low Class A Kane County for the season’s final six weeks. He’s extremely aggressive at the plate, which leads to too many strikeouts. All the tools show up for flashes, though there is some concern about his ability to grind through at-bats and compete consistently. At his best, Baez invokes comparisons with former big leaguer Raul Mondesi.

 

“If he commits himself, the sky’s the limit,” Boise manager Gary Van Tol said. The skipper got a first-hand look at some of Baez’s extraordinary skills, including an arm that has an extra gear. Baez has the tools to become a profile right fielder.

 

9. Mark Zagunis, c/of, Boise (Cubs)

 

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Virginia Tech, 2014 (3).

 

While the Cubs added outfield duties for No. 4 overall pick Kyle Schwarber, a college catcher, they’re committed to catching with Zagunis, a New Jersey prep product who was a catcher/outfielder on Virginia Tech’s 2013 club that produced six draft picks. He caught full time for a less-successful Hokies team in 2014 but had a strong pro debut after signing for $615,000 with the Cubs.

 

Zagunis stands out among catchers for his athleticism and above-average speed, as well as good basestealing instincts. He’s a capable outfielder defensively thanks to his wheels, but he profiles much better if he can catch. Offensively he’s patient and starting to tap into his average power more consistently.

 

He’s got the requisite Jersey toughness to catch every day but is extemely raw defensively, from his footwork to his transfers to simple bad receiving habits. He has average arm strength but threw out just three of 29 basestealers (10 percent) in 15 games.

 

14. Erick Leal, rhp, Boise (Cubs)

 

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 180. Signed: Venezuela, 2011 (Diamondbacks).

 

Leal was signed by the Diamondbacks after the 2011 season and traded to the Cubs before the 2013 season for outfielder Tony Campana. He made tremendous progress this season at Boise to emerge as the team’s best starter by season’s end. Fellow Boise righty Trevor Clifton throws harder and has more projection, but Leal has good stuff and throws many more strikes.

 

Leal’s secondary pitches—a curveball and changeup—are progressing quickly, and he throws both as well as his fastball with confidence. His curve is his best pitch, with a chance to be plus in the future. His fastball averaged 90 mph, and he has added velocity since signing and should continue to do so as he gains strength. He works fast and down in the zone with a good tempo.

 

18. Rashad Crawford, of, Boise (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 185. Drafted: HS—Jonesboro, Ga., 2012 (11).

 

No doubt Crawford is raw, an adjective used by nearly everyone in connection with the athletic center fielder. Signed for $100,000, he has yet to make it to full-season ball but made tremendous improvement despite his unsightly strikeout-to-walk ratio of more than 5-to-1.

 

Crawford gave up switch-hitting this year, now batting exclusively from the left side, and has well above-average speed even after putting on roughly 25 pounds. The former prep basketball player has a musical background that includes his grandfather Dave, who produced the original 1968 hit “What A Man,” which was later re-recorded by En Vogue and Salt-N-Pepa.

 

Crawford has shown a good work ethic and is still learning how to play. He swings and misses too often and is more raw at the plate than in any other facet. He has the tools to be an above-average defender in center field.

 

“It gets me fired up, seeing what he did, from the start of spring to how he performed being an everyday guy,” Boise manager Gary Van Tol said. “He exceeded all expectations.”

[jersey cubs fan]

He’s got the requisite Jersey toughness to catch every day but is extemely raw defensively,

 

Is this a thing in the scouting world? Hahahahahaha.

 

 

 

Jersey toughness is most often associated with heavy doses of performing enhancing drugs.

[Guest]

how the hell didn't that vault trout up to the top of the first round?

[toonsterwu]

I'm mildly perplexed at their Clifton comments - if Clifton has more projection, throws harder, didn't perform poorly ... how did he not make the list at all? Seems odd ... seems like they are making an argument for the significance of strike throwing at that low of a level, and while that is important, I'd almost always take superior raw stuff (for rankings) when discussing prospects that far away.

 

Who did this list (not that it matters that much, just curious if there's anything we can compare it against as it pertains to their past preferences)? I don't get BA anymore ... just see online that it says a Brian Murphy (not sure who that is), but Manuel is doing the chat?

[craig]

Yeah, that's a little curious. Leal being ranked higher pretty much inherently says they're projecting him better.

 

So I'm guessing that the Clifton "projects better" is either alluding to velocity, or to potential ceiling which few guys reach.

 

The two guys are only two months apart in age (Leal March, Clifton May).

 

Surprised that Leal's stuff got scouted that well. Surprised they said he averaged 90 mph on his fastball; I'd assumed he was slower. In that league you'd think a 90 mph fastball, control, and both a change and potential plus-curve would rack up a lot more K's. If he's really 90-average now, and matures into a couple more in future, a 91-93 well-commanded fastball with a plus curve and change could make a very effective pitcher. We'll see.

 

I'd have expected Conway>Clifton>Leal valuation if you'd asked me yesterday morning. Pretty surprised both that we got 4 guys in, and that Leal and can't-hit Crawford were included.

 

Thought manager's "If he commits himself" comment on Baez was interesting. Not sure if that was meant to be praise for how promising he is, or a bit of a knock on his effort? Or both?

 

In my memory, Boise's top-20's are the worst of any league I can remember. Not sure how much comes from the BA author, versus the managers in that level of league. Obviously there aren't many teams in that league, so a lot easier to make top-20 with an 8-team league than bigger leagues like Mesa, Kane, and Daytona. But I wonder whether VanTol etc. understand that hitting is really important, and if Baez or Crawford can't hit much, then the sky is not the limit?

[Guest]

@Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, John. Is it a safe assumption that Schwarber would have topped this list had he qualified? In addition, what was the consensus opinion of his skillset during his limited time in Boise?

 

John Manuel: He hit 4 HR in 5 games. One league manager Brian talked to said he was “Mickey Mantle against us,” and another said, “You will live with the passed balls if he hits like I think he’ll hit.” Weighing that against Borreto would have been a fun exercise. I can see arguments for both of them.

 

Trevor Clifton (Timbuktwo): Was I close to making the list? Wahat about any of my teammates in Boise?

 

John Manuel: Clifton is mentioned in the Erick Leal scouting report. Clifton could have made the back of the list, and probably would have made the top 10 if you stopped halfway through the year. He was inconsistent enough in the second half in terms of his stuff and delivery to raise some questions and needs to add strength and stamina to hold up over a full season. But he was a tough one to leave out. Live armed, touched some 95s, often sat 91-93 spins a breaking ball that shows flashes, nascent changeup . . . Still raw with the secondary and delivery, but had a good developmental year.

 

Andrew (Huntersville, NC): How strong was this league compared to the other short season leagues reviewed this year?

 

John Manuel: Not so hot . . . just not hot at all really. If we still did our old star rankings, this would be a one-star league.

[rawaction]

So, this list is basically a performance based review of players who are actual prospects.

[Quakers]

Surprised not to see Burke on the list.

 

Crawford was intriguing. While raw, I liked his left handed swing. I think it could generate some power in the future.

[craig]

Surprised not to see Burke on the list.

 

Crawford was intriguing. While raw, I liked his left handed swing. I think it could generate some power in the future.

 

I'm guessing you're confusing "Burke" with somebody else?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

he's obviously talking about charcer burks

[Quakers]

Surprised not to see Burke on the list.

 

Crawford was intriguing. While raw, I liked his left handed swing. I think it could generate some power in the future.

 

I'm guessing you're confusing "Burke" with somebody else?

 

Yep. Charcer Burks.

[craig]

Gotcha. I wasn't even thinking about him.

 

Boise's league is probably about the easiest one for a guy to make a top-20. No disrespect, every league is interesting and has some prospects.

1. The league is rather small, only 8 teams. Much easier to make Top-20 when teams are averaging 2.5 guys, whereas other leagues with 13-16 teams it's statistically barely half as likely.

2. Good prospects frequently don't spend any or enough time at that level to qualify.

*Good college draft picks like Schwarber and Stinnett who would easily be better prospects than Zagunis/Leal/Clifton/Burks/Crawford/Conway types, or Bryant the year before, aren't listed.

*Many good HS guys never get listed. Almora pretty much skipped Boise. Not sure, but won't surprise me at all if Sands skips Eugene, and possibly Steele as well?

*Tseng and Soler both skipped Boise.

3. The BA chat said this particular year wasn't strong at all, making reference to this summer's Northwest League class being a "one-star" class.

[Quakers]

Gotcha. I wasn't even thinking about him.

 

Boise's league is probably about the easiest one for a guy to make a top-20. No disrespect, every league is interesting and has some prospects.

1. The league is rather small, only 8 teams. Much easier to make Top-20 when teams are averaging 2.5 guys, whereas other leagues with 13-16 teams it's statistically barely half as likely.

2. Good prospects frequently don't spend any or enough time at that level to qualify.

*Good college draft picks like Schwarber and Stinnett who would easily be better prospects than Zagunis/Leal/Clifton/Burks/Crawford/Conway types, or Bryant the year before, aren't listed.

*Many good HS guys never get listed. Almora pretty much skipped Boise. Not sure, but won't surprise me at all if Sands skips Eugene, and possibly Steele as well?

*Tseng and Soler both skipped Boise.

3. The BA chat said this particular year wasn't strong at all, making reference to this summer's Northwest League class being a "one-star" class.

 

True enough. Though each team has its own philosophy and the Cubs has changed. I saw Shark's debut. Angel Guzman ...Sean Marshall...several other pitching prospects...Colvin, Clevenger, Schierholtz(Giants)...and other hitters. But yes... the best draft prospects can normally start at a higher level. Many young prospects start at Mesa and then skip a level. But our current philosophy has had both Bryant and Schwarber start at Boise. IMHO...Earlier they would have gone directly to the MWL.

[Guest]

Gotcha. I wasn't even thinking about him.

 

Boise's league is probably about the easiest one for a guy to make a top-20. No disrespect, every league is interesting and has some prospects.

1. The league is rather small, only 8 teams. Much easier to make Top-20 when teams are averaging 2.5 guys, whereas other leagues with 13-16 teams it's statistically barely half as likely.

2. Good prospects frequently don't spend any or enough time at that level to qualify.

*Good college draft picks like Schwarber and Stinnett who would easily be better prospects than Zagunis/Leal/Clifton/Burks/Crawford/Conway types, or Bryant the year before, aren't listed.

*Many good HS guys never get listed. Almora pretty much skipped Boise. Not sure, but won't surprise me at all if Sands skips Eugene, and possibly Steele as well?

*Tseng and Soler both skipped Boise.

3. The BA chat said this particular year wasn't strong at all, making reference to this summer's Northwest League class being a "one-star" class.

 

True enough. Though each team has its own philosophy and the Cubs has changed. I saw Shark's debut. Angel Guzman ...Sean Marshall...several other pitching prospects...Colvin, Clevenger, Schierholtz(Giants)...and other hitters. But yes... the best draft prospects can normally start at a higher level. Many young prospects start at Mesa and then skip a level. But our current philosophy has had both Bryant and Schwarber start at Boise. IMHO...Earlier they would have gone directly to the MWL.

 

One of the main reasons for that is the earlier signing deadline.

[Quakers]

Gotcha. I wasn't even thinking about him.

 

Boise's league is probably about the easiest one for a guy to make a top-20. No disrespect, every league is interesting and has some prospects.

1. The league is rather small, only 8 teams. Much easier to make Top-20 when teams are averaging 2.5 guys, whereas other leagues with 13-16 teams it's statistically barely half as likely.

2. Good prospects frequently don't spend any or enough time at that level to qualify.

*Good college draft picks like Schwarber and Stinnett who would easily be better prospects than Zagunis/Leal/Clifton/Burks/Crawford/Conway types, or Bryant the year before, aren't listed.

*Many good HS guys never get listed. Almora pretty much skipped Boise. Not sure, but won't surprise me at all if Sands skips Eugene, and possibly Steele as well?

*Tseng and Soler both skipped Boise.

3. The BA chat said this particular year wasn't strong at all, making reference to this summer's Northwest League class being a "one-star" class.

 

True enough. Though each team has its own philosophy and the Cubs has changed. I saw Shark's debut. Angel Guzman ...Sean Marshall...several other pitching prospects...Colvin, Clevenger, Schierholtz(Giants)...and other hitters. But yes... the best draft prospects can normally start at a higher level. Many young prospects start at Mesa and then skip a level. But our current philosophy has had both Bryant and Schwarber start at Boise. IMHO...Earlier they would have gone directly to the MWL.

 

One of the main reasons for that is the earlier signing deadline.

 

True.

 

I also had the chance to see Panik.