javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread

[Andy]

Without going back through the minor league threads, I think he was posting K-rates in the 22-25% range even during his awesome stretches.

[sneakypower]

Did he have any prolonged period of a non disgusting K-Rate in AAA? Or, was it more like a good couple weeks where he struck out a little less than usual?

Iowa contact rate

April: 56%

May: 58%

June: 68%

July: 66%

August: 67%

 

that might seem like encouraging improvements, but it's really just a whole lot of evidence that he's going to swing and miss 1/3 of the time even in very favorable circumstances

 

scouts and people like Keith Law gush over his bat speed, but who the [expletive] cares, if he's generating it by just rapidly twisting every part of his body as violently as possible with minimal regard for actually being able to hit the ball

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Even 67% in AAA is really bad. You're basically being Mark Reynolds in a league where Chris Rusin and Casey Coleman are good pitchers.

 

But hopefully the age thing lets him improve his contact skills a ton in a very short time.

[Gmoney08]

What do SABR guys value more contact rate or K rate? Or, are both pretty similar in predicting future success?

 

 

2nd question...

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates

 

Javy's ML K rate is very similar and in the Russ Branyan, Wily Mo Pena, Ryan Howard, Glen Allen Hill, and Tim Salmon scary bad range.

 

But, wouldn't even the worst of the players above be a pretty damn valuable 2B if they played a good defensive 2B?

[Guest]

What was Javy's K rate in Triple A?

 

I know he looked bad in the majors but he looked bad in AA and AAA first too. Wasn't he pretty damn good for a long stretch in AAA this year?

 

It's not like he has only dominated A ball, shouldn't there be a decent amount of optimism for Javy considering the adjustments he's made in AA/AAA before?

 

His AAA K-rate was really bad, too. And historically, high K-rates in the minors are really bad signs even if the OPS is still high. We're hoping that his extremely young age balances that out.

 

I know its manipulating statistics to make me a koolaid drinking happy Cubs fan but what did Javy's K-rate look like after his abysmal start in AAA?

 

I just remember following the ML game threads and it seemed for awhile he was definitely striking out less (not to say he was still anywhere near a good K-rate though).

 

 

Did he have any prolonged period of a non disgusting K-Rate in AAA? Or, was it more like a good couple weeks where he struck out a little less than usual?

He generally got better and better as the season went on.

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/images/JavyKRate.jpg

[Gmoney08]

What site is that from? I want to also run his numbers at AA the year before.

[Guest]

What site is that from? I want to also run his numbers at AA the year before.

I did it in excel and uploaded it.

[Guest]

Contact rate is a symptom, not a disease. It's silly to use it as a disqualifying benchmark, most especially for a guy like Baez who has repeatedly progressed over time at each level.

[sneakypower]

he progressed from "probably swinging with eyes closed" to "probably squinting"

[jersey cubs fan]

Contact rate is a symptom, not a disease. It's silly to use it as a disqualifying benchmark, most especially for a guy like Baez who has repeatedly progressed over time at each level.

One of the issues with the improvement over time thing with Baez us that even as he improved the better rates were still quite alarmingly bad.

[Guest]

Contact rate is a symptom, not a disease. It's silly to use it as a disqualifying benchmark, most especially for a guy like Baez who has repeatedly progressed over time at each level.

One of the issues with the improvement over time thing with Baez us that even as he improved the better rates were still quite alarmingly bad.

His strikeout rate moving average was under 25% for a good portion of his time at Iowa last year after initially hovering around 40%

[Guest]

Contact rate is a symptom, not a disease. It's silly to use it as a disqualifying benchmark, most especially for a guy like Baez who has repeatedly progressed over time at each level.

One of the issues with the improvement over time thing with Baez us that even as he improved the better rates were still quite alarmingly bad.

His strikeout rate moving average was under 25% for a good portion of his time at Iowa last year after initially hovering around 40%

 

I'm more worried about his contact rate.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

"Under 25% in the PCL" doesn't exactly fill me with waves of optimism, either.

[Guest]

"Under 25% in the PCL" doesn't exactly fill me with waves of optimism, either.

If Javy can get his strikeout rate to 25% in the majors, he'll be a force offensively.

[Guest]

"Under 25% in the PCL" doesn't exactly fill me with waves of optimism, either.

If Javy can get his strikeout rate to 25% in the majors, he'll be a force offensively.

 

Getting his strikeout rate to 25% in the majors would be a miracle of some sort.

[jersey cubs fan]

"Under 25% in the PCL" doesn't exactly fill me with waves of optimism, either.

If Javy can get his strikeout rate to 25% in the majors, he'll be a force offensively.

Ifs buts candies nuts

[Sammy Sofa]

"Under 25% in the PCL" doesn't exactly fill me with waves of optimism, either.

If Javy can get his strikeout rate to 25% in the majors, he'll be a force offensively.

 

Oh, that's all he has to do? No problem.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

"Under 25% in the PCL" doesn't exactly fill me with waves of optimism, either.

If Javy can get his strikeout rate to 25% in the majors, he'll be a force offensively.

 

Sure. So all we have to do is convince MLB teams to universally employ pitchers only a little better than AAA pitchers.

[Sammy Sofa]

Gimme some of that pizzawine, Tim.

[Guest]

Gimme some of that pizzawine, Tim.

A nice shiraz will do the trick for you. For the pizza, take your pick.

[Guest]

"Under 25% in the PCL" doesn't exactly fill me with waves of optimism, either.

If Javy can get his strikeout rate to 25% in the majors, he'll be a force offensively.

 

Sure. So all we have to do is convince MLB teams to universally employ pitchers only a little better than AAA pitchers.

Or, you know, have a 22 year old kid make adjustments and improve. As he did after starting off with a near 40% strikeout rate in AAA.

[Sammy Sofa]

The best beverages and foods comes in boxes.

[NonProfitCow]

Hell, he'll be a force at 30%. Trout K'd 26.1% of the time last year.

[RammyFanny]

JavyBB :stickman:

[RammyFanny]

RBI single, he's fixed.