5/30 Cobs (Wood) @ Brewers (Estrada) 7:10 CT WGN

[Hairyducked Idiot]

For all the talk that "herp derp run differential isn't working."

 

It actually is working with the Chicago Cubs.

 

You can slice up their season *almost* any way you want, and their win percentage in the second part it will be closer to their first-part pythagorean than to their first-part actual win%.

[SouthSideRyan]

Unless you slice it at the time that everyone was going around saying how decent this team was because omg run differential. 3-6 with a -19 run differential since then.

[bukie]

Unless you slice it at the time that everyone was going around saying how decent this team was because omg run differential. 3-6 with a -19 run differential since then.

Except that's not really what anyone's saying. Just that they aren't as bad as their W-L record, because their Pythag was both significantly better and more predictive.

[SouthSideRyan]

Unless you slice it at the time that everyone was going around saying how decent this team was because omg run differential. 3-6 with a -19 run differential since then.

Except that's not really what anyone's saying. Just that they aren't as bad as their W-L record, because their Pythag was both significantly better and more predictive.

 

That's what Kyle literally just said.

[bukie]

Unless you slice it at the time that everyone was going around saying how decent this team was because omg run differential. 3-6 with a -19 run differential since then.

Except that's not really what anyone's saying. Just that they aren't as bad as their W-L record, because their Pythag was both significantly better and more predictive.

 

That's what Kyle literally just said.

Kyle doesn't count. Actually, I'm looking for a FG article that explained a better predictive measure than Pythag on run differential that showed the Cubs were about halfway between decent and awful thus far (and was going to calculate an update of that measure), but finding old articles on FG isn't really easy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Unless you slice it at the time that everyone was going around saying how decent this team was because omg run differential. 3-6 with a -19 run differential since then.

 

Arbitrary endpoints are fun.

 

What if you slice it to include today's game. Or the games right before that 3-6.

[SouthSideRyan]

Unless you slice it at the time that everyone was going around saying how decent this team was because omg run differential. 3-6 with a -19 run differential since then.

 

Arbitrary endpoints are fun.

 

What if you slice it to include today's game. Or the games right before that 3-6.

 

You introduced the "pythag holds true no matter how you slice it" idea. It doesn't.

 

The back and forth on this is silly because nobody thinks the team without the inevitable sell-off is a 59 win team or an 83 win team. Pythag may be more predictive than actual record after ~40 games, but that doesn't mean it's a great predictive tool. Our pythag projection dropped from 83 to 75 wins in the span of 7 games.

[Guest]

If you are going to try and roll it to whatever suits your mood you might as well wait until the end of the season a chalk their record up to whatever side of the coin they fall on. The arbitrary end point was two weeks ago.

[ScrubMD]

The Cubs are 1-0 with a +8 run differential since 5/31.

[Sammy Sofa]

Now I'm completely lost again after this page.

 

Someone tell me what to think, but real stupid-like.

[Guest]

The Cubs have a bad record. The way they accumulated that record indicates they should be better than a bad record, but still not a good record. That indicator only goes so far since it's only 50 games and there's likely trades coming. So pointing to the team's current record as proof that things are as "bad as ever" or "bottoming out" is a bit silly, and saying things are bound to get better because of how that record was accumulated is equally silly. If you want to be optimistic, take solace in that run differential and the strong performances from the best players. If you want to be pessimistic, look at their record and the fact that Hammel and potentially several others are getting traded too.

[Guest]

The Cubs have a bad record. The way they accumulated that record indicates they should be better than a bad record, but still not a good record. That indicator only goes so far since it's only 50 games and there's likely trades coming. So pointing to the team's current record as proof that things are as "bad as ever" or "bottoming out" is a bit silly, and saying things are bound to get better because of how that record was accumulated is equally silly. If you want to be optimistic, take solace in that run differential and the strong performances from the best players. If you want to be pessimistic, look at their record and the fact that Hammel and potentially several others are getting traded too.

Agreed

[Sammy Sofa]

The Cubs have a bad record. The way they accumulated that record indicates they should be better than a bad record, but still not a good record. That indicator only goes so far since it's only 50 games and there's likely trades coming. So pointing to the team's current record as proof that things are as "bad as ever" or "bottoming out" is a bit silly, and saying things are bound to get better because of how that record was accumulated is equally silly. If you want to be optimistic, take solace in that run differential and the strong performances from the best players. If you want to be pessimistic, look at their record and the fact that Hammel and potentially several others are getting traded too.

 

Thanks.

 

One last thing, just to kinda swerve it back to the halfassed point I thought I was making before; so would run differential perhaps be a more prudent tool when talking about a team that's a bit more...permanent? You kinda touch on my thinking with the mention of trades; since so much of the team seems to be made of players that will be gone, should be gone, will have less playing time, should have less playing time, etc., then it really doesn't do a whole lot in terms of being optimistic in regards to next year. Like it's a very "this team, right now"-type of stat as opposed to something more predictive.

[Guest]

The Cubs have a bad record. The way they accumulated that record indicates they should be better than a bad record, but still not a good record. That indicator only goes so far since it's only 50 games and there's likely trades coming. So pointing to the team's current record as proof that things are as "bad as ever" or "bottoming out" is a bit silly, and saying things are bound to get better because of how that record was accumulated is equally silly. If you want to be optimistic, take solace in that run differential and the strong performances from the best players. If you want to be pessimistic, look at their record and the fact that Hammel and potentially several others are getting traded too.

 

Thanks.

 

One last thing, just to kinda swerve it back to the halfassed point I thought I was making before; so would run differential perhaps be a more prudent tool when talking about a team that's a bit more...permanent? You kinda touch on my thinking with the mention of trades; since so much of the team seems to be made of players that will be gone, should be gone, will have less playing time, should have less playing time, etc., then it really doesn't do a whole lot in terms of being optimistic in regards to next year. Like it's a very "this team, right now"-type of stat as opposed to something more predictive.

 

Yes and no. Yes since most teams won't have the type of in-season turnover that we've come to expect from a deadline sell off, so the team that helped craft the run differential may have a different look for the remaining half of the season. No because the rest of season impact of trading a few guys has been a bit overblown. From a WAR perspective the difference between a below average player and one a good bit above average is not super significant over 70 games, so even making multiple trades like that won't turn a team with 75 win true talent into one with true 65 win ability. Especially if they bring in MLB players in return like last year did with Arrieta and Strop.

[Sammy Sofa]

Gotcha. Thanks.