5/30 Cobs (Wood) @ Brewers (Estrada) 7:10 CT WGN

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It definitely is.

 

Actually, I think Brett showed that over the last 20 years we've been pretty amazingly bad at keeping up with Pythagorean.

[Sammy Sofa]

It definitely is.

 

Actually, I think Brett showed that over the last 20 years we've been pretty amazingly bad at keeping up with Pythagorean.

 

*Sigh*

 

I REALLY hate the "only the Cobs" stuff, but it just feels like it has been seriously piling up in the last few years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It definitely is.

 

Actually, I think Brett showed that over the last 20 years we've been pretty amazingly bad at keeping up with Pythagorean.

 

*Sigh*

 

I REALLY hate the "only the Cobs" stuff, but it just feels like it has been seriously piling up in the last few years.

 

Think about the playoff losing streak, too. Reasonably talented teams suddenly losing nine in a row by a million runs.

[ScrubMD]

Oh, get over yourself.

 

Ha! Awesome.

[Sammy Sofa]

Man, the playoff losing streak seems like such a distant thing to even try and shatter. I'm more depressed about them having to fight so hard just to be able to have player facilities that weren't outdated even before Capone died.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, get over yourself.

 

Ha! Awesome.

 

Please, explain what is so "aggressively stupid" about not feeling better about the Cubs' pythag variance?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Oh, get over yourself.

 

Ha! Awesome.

 

Please, explain what is so "aggressively stupid" about not feeling better about the Cubs' pythag variance?

 

 

I don't think it's aggressively stupid, but I'd rather criticize them for putting together a 79-win team or whatever the pythagorean says they should be. It's not like that's a victory of some sort.

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, it's not like I'm saying it's a bull [expletive] predictive tool; all I'm saying is that it shouldn't be surprising when a shakily constructed team underperforms. Call it semantics, but I just take issue with people saying that they "should" have more wins like they've been losing a ton of close 1-run games or the bullpen has been blowing leads left and right.

[ScrubMD]

Oh, get over yourself.

 

Ha! Awesome.

 

Please, explain what is so "aggressively stupid" about not feeling better about the Cubs' pythag variance?

 

Mostly the thing about a Frankenstein team playing worse than expected. It made no sense, and run differential vs. record has nothing to do with "playing worse than expected". That's like saying a player is hitting worse than expected because he doesn't have as many RBI's as his OPS would suggest.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, get over yourself.

 

Ha! Awesome.

 

Please, explain what is so "aggressively stupid" about not feeling better about the Cubs' pythag variance?

 

Mostly the thing about a Frankenstein team playing worse than expected. It made no sense, and run differential vs. record has nothing to do with "playing worse than expected". That's like saying a player is hitting worse than expected because he doesn't have as many RBI's as his OPS would suggest.

 

Then I simply didn't explain it clearly enough; I don't take solace in something like run differential (when it was in their favor) with a team like this, especially when it was heavily skewed by obvious outlier games.

 

It's a monster of a team made up largely of crappy platoons and retreads and busts and deeply flawed starters; that's why they're yet again playing worse than predicted. It's not a surprise.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

"outlier" games don't skew run differential. That's what makes it work.

[Sammy Sofa]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

[jersey cubs fan]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

It's important to remember that Kyle does not understand math and he is wrong.

[Guest]

"outlier" games don't skew run differential. That's what makes it work.

 

Seriously. That blowout loss in San Diego last Friday is reflected in run differential just like that blowout win over St Louis.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

It's important to remember that Kyle does not understand math and he is wrong.

 

"outlier" is not a magic word that means "that didn't happen so we won't count it."

 

The entire reason run differential is predictive is the frequency and ratio of blowouts for/against tells you more about a team than their performance in close games.

[Sammy Sofa]

I've stated numerous times I have zero clue how most baseball statistics "work" and generally just rely on being able to figure out what is good and bad in the individual categories (and a lot I don't even bother with because I can't grasp what the hell they're even supposed to mean no matter how many times I read it). With run differential I always just assumed that there was some kind of flaw in it because of outlier games and that the pythag projectons somehow adjusted for it, but I guess not.

[Guest]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

It's important to remember that Kyle does not understand math and he is wrong.

I tried to explain to you the other day that you don't understand this correctly.

[Guest]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

It's important to remember that Kyle does not understand math and he is wrong.

 

Oh come on, Kyle understands this clearly.

[jersey cubs fan]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

It's important to remember that Kyle does not understand math and he is wrong.

I tried to explain to you the other day that you don't understand this correctly.

And you were wrong

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If he's wrong, then design a run differential projection model that strips out the outliers and projects future wins in a meaningfully more accurate way.

 

I'll wait.

[jersey cubs fan]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

It's important to remember that Kyle does not understand math and he is wrong.

 

"outlier" is not a magic word that means "that didn't happen so we won't count it."

 

The entire reason run differential is predictive is the frequency and ratio of blowouts for/against tells you more about a team than their performance in close games.

And two weeks later they go from + 5 to - 20.

 

You were wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That doesn't mean I was wrong.

[Sammy Sofa]

Then I just have no idea how it works. Which makes sense, since I am terrible at math.

It's important to remember that Kyle does not understand math and he is wrong.

 

Oh come on, Kyle understands this clearly.

 

Can someone explain it to me?

 

Like if I had a 30 game season and we score 50 runs but 21 of those are scored in 1 game it would account for that?

 

Then explain xFIP and BAbip.

[jersey cubs fan]

That doesn't mean I was wrong.

It means you thought a stat was more meaningful tha. It actually was. You were and are wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If you score 21 in one game and 1 in the next nine, or if you score 3 in every game, it says the same thing about your future expected offensive performance. (Or maybe it doesn't, but that's such an extreme example it hasn't been tested. At the types of things that happen to real baseball teams, this principle still works).

 

 

 

Unrelated other than on the nearly universal subject of things I am right about, Welington Castillo's BABIP is down to .318 and now he's hitting 244/288/388