Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-22-14

[abuck1220]

wow, apparently you're bad at this too.

 

bad at what exactly?

 

you appear to be arguing that past wins/losses aren't indicative of future wins/losses much in the way that past heads/tails are not indicative of future heads/tails. this is not correct. at all.

Future baseball games are completely independent events from past baseball games, so the analogy is apt.

 

 

if you were trying to predict whether a team was going to win its 101st game of the season would you want to know the results of the first 100? yes.

 

if you were trying to predict the result of the 101st coin flip, would you want to know the results of the first 100? no.

[Guest]

Before the annual fire sale, who here is predicting the Cubs are at or above .500? Let's get it down so we know.

 

Probably nobody...because they're already 11 games under .500 and I'm pretty sure nobody here thinks this is a team expected to go 11 games over .500 over 2.5 months.

So what you are saying is the model isn't so great for the Cubs?

wow...I mean...you took classes in stuff like this, right?

 

How did you pass?

With flying [expletive] colors.

 

Neither one of you humps answered my question so I'll just assume my point stands. 11 games under 500 at the deadline? Better than 11 games under? Where?

 

What the hell are you even saying here dude

[Guest]

Before the annual fire sale, who here is predicting the Cubs are at or above .500? Let's get it down so we know.

 

Probably nobody...because they're already 11 games under .500 and I'm pretty sure nobody here thinks this is a team expected to go 11 games over .500 over 2.5 months.

So what you are saying is the model isn't so great for the Cubs?

wow...I mean...you took classes in stuff like this, right?

 

How did you pass?

With flying [expletive] colors.

 

Neither one of you humps answered my question so I'll just assume my point stands. 11 games under 500 at the deadline? Better than 11 games under? Where?

lol - I feel like I just went through this a few days ago.

 

By pythagorean record, the cubs should be around 10 under .500 after 90 games, or 40-50. By w/l record, they should be 34-56 after that time. I'd guess that they will be around 39-51.

 

What is your prediction?

[Guest]

wow, apparently you're bad at this too.

 

bad at what exactly?

 

you appear to be arguing that past wins/losses aren't indicative of future wins/losses much in the way that past heads/tails are not indicative of future heads/tails. this is not correct. at all.

Future baseball games are completely independent events from past baseball games, so the analogy is apt.

 

 

if you were trying to predict whether a team was going to win its 101st game of the season would you want to know the results of the first 100? yes.

 

if you were trying to predict the result of the 101st coin flip, would you want to know the results of the first 100? no.

 

That data is what we use to take our best guess at what the odds are of winning. Those odds exist. We don't know exactly what they are and all we can do is use math to take our best guess at it, but nevertheless, there is an exact probability of winning or losing a given game.

 

It just so happens that with the coin flips, we know the odds are 50/50 by definition.

 

The fact that we know one by definition and have to try to figure the other out doesn't affect what the analogy is presenting, which is that a team that is 11 games under .500 and has around a .500 pythag isn't being projected to finish at .500 (or ever even reach it). It is projected to play around .500 going forward, just like the tails aren't automatically going to catch up to the heads after the 10 heads in a row just because the expectation is 50/50.

 

The odds of the future games being won aren't impacted (though they may or may not be illustrated) by the previous results. They are independent. What we do know is that pythag is a better indicator of those odds going forward than their W-L record (assuming a relatively consistent roster construction, in both cases). The Cubs, if left more or less as they've been constructed, are likely to play closer to their pythag than their actual W-L.

Edited May 23, 2014 by David

[Guest]

wow, apparently you're bad at this too.

 

bad at what exactly?

 

you appear to be arguing that past wins/losses aren't indicative of future wins/losses much in the way that past heads/tails are not indicative of future heads/tails. this is not correct. at all.

Future baseball games are completely independent events from past baseball games, so the analogy is apt.

 

 

if you were trying to predict whether a team was going to win its 101st game of the season would you want to know the results of the first 100? yes.

 

if you were trying to predict the result of the 101st coin flip, would you want to know the results of the first 100? no.

Yep. You don't understand what I wrote.

[ChiCubsFan]

Way to ruin the best thread we've had here in months.

[Sammy Sofa]

Way to ruin the best thread we've had here in months.

 

Clearly you're not a Saved by the Bell fan.

[davell]

Way to ruin the best thread we've had here in months.

 

Clearly you're not a Saved by the Bell fan.

 

Not even possible.

[Gmoney08]

That homer reminded me so much of mid 90's Sammy Sosa, the skinnier version with the lightning quick bat.

 

 

Crazy comparison but could Javy be a mid 90's Sammy playing SS, that seems to be pretty valuable even if he doesnt steal as many bases as 90's Sammy.

 

They are roughly about the same size as well, short guys with lightning quick bats (Sammy at 21 was probably even smaller then Javy is now). I could see Javy putting up similar strikeout numbers to mid 90's Sammy, hitting 30 to 45 homers, with roughly the same batting averages preroids Sosa was putting up (without looking I feel he was between 270 and 285 most those years).

 

I'm still pissed nobody replied to this and instead there was much needed bickering about run differential for 7 of the 8 pages.

[Gmoney08]

That homer reminded me so much of mid 90's Sammy Sosa, the skinnier version with the lightning quick bat.

 

 

Crazy comparison but could Javy be a mid 90's Sammy playing SS, that seems to be pretty valuable even if he doesnt steal as many bases as 90's Sammy.

 

They are roughly about the same size as well, short guys with lightning quick bats (Sammy at 21 was probably even smaller then Javy is now). I could see Javy putting up similar strikeout numbers to mid 90's Sammy, hitting 30 to 45 homers, with roughly the same batting averages preroids Sosa was putting up (without looking I feel he was between 270 and 285 most those years).

 

I'm still pissed nobody replied to this and instead there was much needed bickering about run differential for 7 of the 8 pages.

[KingCubsFan]

That homer reminded me so much of mid 90's Sammy Sosa, the skinnier version with the lightning quick bat.

 

 

Crazy comparison but could Javy be a mid 90's Sammy playing SS, that seems to be pretty valuable even if he doesnt steal as many bases as 90's Sammy.

 

They are roughly about the same size as well, short guys with lightning quick bats (Sammy at 21 was probably even smaller then Javy is now). I could see Javy putting up similar strikeout numbers to mid 90's Sammy, hitting 30 to 45 homers, with roughly the same batting averages preroids Sosa was putting up (without looking I feel he was between 270 and 285 most those years).

 

I'm still pissed nobody replied to this and instead there was much needed bickering about run differential for 7 of the 8 pages.

I just came in to see how in the world this thread got to 8 pages. As for the Sosa comparison, I think that's a pretty accurate comparison numbers-wise if Javy reaches his ceiling. In today's game and with the position premium, that's an elite player. However, if I were to be greedy, I would hope Javy passes 40 homers at some point. Sosa's career high prior to 1998 was 40.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sosa struck out a *ton* less in the minors.

[Guest]

He also hit 35 HR in 1900 MiLB PAs, Javy hit 34 in less than 600 last year.

[SouthSideRyan]

Not super relevant but I always feel the need to point out Sosa was on pace for 50 HRs when he broke his hand in 96

[Guest]

Not super relevant but I always feel the need to point out Sosa was on pace for 50 HRs when he broke his hand in 96

 

I was so disappointed.

 

Also I think either right around then or before (maybe right after to make up for Sosa's injury) there were rumors about trading for Sheffield and I was having dreams of sheffield hitting bombs onto sheffield (not realizing that he would have to go oppo for these)

[Gmoney08]

Who was rumored to be involved in the Sheffield trade? I vaguely remember some Bonds to the Cubs rumors in the mid 90s. I dont know if it was as a FA or trade though. When was Bonds first SF contract expiring?

[Gmoney08]

Sosa struck out a *ton* less in the minors.

 

Again, not saying its an exact comparison but his size, swing, and bat speed reminds me soooo much of pre 60hr Sosa.

 

If Baez hits his ceiling I think it could look alot like young Sammy but playing SS.

[Guest]

Sosa struck out a *ton* less in the minors.

 

Again, not saying its an exact comparison but his size, swing, and bat speed reminds me soooo much of pre 60hr Sosa.

 

If Baez hits his ceiling I think it could look alot like young Sammy but playing SS.

Sosa was a lot more wispy that Javy. Javy has a much, much bigger lower half that Sammy ever did.

[Sammy Sofa]

We don't root for dirty centaurs.