2015 Draft Discussion

[Tryptamine]

My Understanding is that the Astros want bats. I'd expect one of Rodgers or Bregman at #2 and one of Cameron/Benintendi/Tucker at 5. Unfortunately, I think Jay is headed to Colorado.

[Guest]

My Understanding is that the Astros want bats. I'd expect one of Rodgers or Bregman at #2 and one of Cameron/Benintendi/Tucker at 5. Unfortunately, I think Jay is headed to Colorado.

 

Even of Jay doesn't go at 1.3, it sounds like he's the top guy on the White Sox' draft board and high on the Red Sox' board. Looks like some wacky stuff would have to happen for Jay to available at 1.9.

[Tryptamine]

My Understanding is that the Astros want bats. I'd expect one of Rodgers or Bregman at #2 and one of Cameron/Benintendi/Tucker at 5. Unfortunately, I think Jay is headed to Colorado.

 

Even of Jay doesn't go at 1.3, it sounds like he's the top guy on the White Sox' draft board and high on the Red Sox' board. Looks like some wacky stuff would have to happen for Jay to available at 1.9.

 

Yeah, it's about 0% he's there at 9,Benintendi is about best case scenario at this point. If things pan out as I expect it's going to be a choice between Daz/Happ/Clark/Harris/Whitley. Would be nice if Allard's medicals looked good, because I like him a lot more than I like any of the aforementioned group.

[Gilby]

My Understanding is that the Astros want bats. I'd expect one of Rodgers or Bregman at #2 and one of Cameron/Benintendi/Tucker at 5. Unfortunately, I think Jay is headed to Colorado.

 

Even of Jay doesn't go at 1.3, it sounds like he's the top guy on the White Sox' draft board and high on the Red Sox' board. Looks like some wacky stuff would have to happen for Jay to available at 1.9.

 

Yeah, it's about 0% he's there at 9,Benintendi is about best case scenario at this point. If things pan out as I expect it's going to be a choice between Daz/Happ/Clark/Harris/Whitley. Would be nice if Allard's medicals looked good, because I like him a lot more than I like any of the aforementioned group.

 

From the little I know, I'd go Happ if Benintendi's taken. Love those Cape numbers and hope he can be adequate at 2B or CF.

 

How different is Cameron from Almora? He seems too Almora-y for my liking.

[TheDude]

Of all the scouting reports I have read online Happ seems the ideal target at 9 for this front office.

[Guest]

Aiken's medicals are out: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brady-aikens-medicals-are-out-situation-is-still-cloudy/

[Guest]

Well this just snuck up on me. Is the draft this week?

[Guest]

Well this just snuck up on me. Is the draft this week?

 

Starts next Monday.

[CubsWin]

To my eye, I don't see much of a Rule 5/40-man roster crunch, but let's say the Cubs front office does. This would be the perfect time to trade one of the guys who they will want to roster or someone currently on the 40-man for a competitive balance pick.

 

I know a middle reliever was traded for one straight up last season, I believe involving the Marlins and Pirates, or maybe it was the year before. Is Travis Wood who's pretty much a LH middle reliever at this point too little to get a comp pick? Too much? Ivan Pineyro?

 

Trading someone with a lower ceiling but more present value for a higher ceiling guy who's much further away seems like a smart thing to do given the depth of the organization right now.

[CubsWin]

Also, with the rule change making 1st round picks tradeable after 5 months instead of 12, and with Aiken and Matuella out of commission for about another 5 months before they'd start throwing for real, the timeline seems set up nicely to trade for one of those guys. I have no idea what it would take or given the asking price if it'd be worth it, but the Cubs have a deep system and the timeline is uniquely fortuitous.

 

If the price is fair, it'd be quite the coup to get a guy at #9 who they like and will underslot allowing them to land one or two of the tough-to-sign arms in the middle rounds plus get Aiken or Matuella in a deal.

[Epsteenie]

To my eye, I don't see much of a Rule 5/40-man roster crunch, but let's say the Cubs front office does. This would be the perfect time to trade one of the guys who they will want to roster or someone currently on the 40-man for a competitive balance pick.

 

I know a middle reliever was traded for one straight up last season, I believe involving the Marlins and Pirates, or maybe it was the year before. Is Travis Wood who's pretty much a LH middle reliever at this point too little to get a comp pick? Too much? Ivan Pineyro?

 

Trading someone with a lower ceiling but more present value for a higher ceiling guy who's much further away seems like a smart thing to do given the depth of the organization right now.

 

Let's say the Cubs are feeling a 40-man roster crunch. Players who are currently on the Chicago Cubs 40 Man Roster - Gonzalez Germen, Dallas Beeler, Eric Jokisch, Brian Schlitter, Jonathan Herrera, Mike Baxter and Chris Denorfia. Would Travis Wood be the guy to cut or trade if there was a roster crunch? Would they want to get rid of Travis Wood over Edwin Jackson? Would any team give up a comp pick for Travis Wood?

Edited June 4, 2015 by Epsteenie

[Epsteenie]

To my eye, I don't see much of a Rule 5/40-man roster crunch, but let's say the Cubs front office does. This would be the perfect time to trade one of the guys who they will want to roster or someone currently on the 40-man for a competitive balance pick.

 

I know a middle reliever was traded for one straight up last season, I believe involving the Marlins and Pirates, or maybe it was the year before. Is Travis Wood who's pretty much a LH middle reliever at this point too little to get a comp pick? Too much? Ivan Pineyro?

 

Trading someone with a lower ceiling but more present value for a higher ceiling guy who's much further away seems like a smart thing to do given the depth of the organization right now.

 

Let's say the Cubs are feeling a 40-man roster crunch. Players who are currently on the Chicago Cubs 40 Man Roster - Gonzalez Germen, Dallas Beeler, Eric Jokisch, Brian Schlitter, Jonathan Herrera, Mike Baxter and Chris Denorfia. Would Travis Wood be the guy to cut or trade if there was a roster crunch? Would they want to get rid of Travis Wood over Edwin Jackson? Would any team give up a comp pick for Travis Wood?

 

No, no and no.

[CubsWin]

To my eye, I don't see much of a Rule 5/40-man roster crunch, but let's say the Cubs front office does. This would be the perfect time to trade one of the guys who they will want to roster or someone currently on the 40-man for a competitive balance pick.

 

I know a middle reliever was traded for one straight up last season, I believe involving the Marlins and Pirates, or maybe it was the year before. Is Travis Wood who's pretty much a LH middle reliever at this point too little to get a comp pick? Too much? Ivan Pineyro?

 

Trading someone with a lower ceiling but more present value for a higher ceiling guy who's much further away seems like a smart thing to do given the depth of the organization right now.

 

Let's say the Cubs are feeling a 40-man roster crunch. Players who are currently on the Chicago Cubs 40 Man Roster - Gonzalez Germen, Dallas Beeler, Eric Jokisch, Brian Schlitter, Jonathan Herrera, Mike Baxter and Chris Denorfia. Would Travis Wood be the guy to cut or trade if there was a roster crunch? Would they want to get rid of Travis Wood over Edwin Jackson? Would any team give up a comp pick for Travis Wood?

 

No, no and no.

I think you misunderstood my post. Maybe I wasn't clear.

 

No one is suggesting the Cubs cut Travis Wood over Edwin Jackson. Where'd that come from? The point of the post was discussing the idea of trading for a comp pick because the Cubs system has a lot of depth right now.

 

I found it odd last season when the Marlins traded the 39th overall selection (a 1st round comp pick) to the Pirates for right-handed middle reliever Bryan Morris. He was 27 at the time, had a WHIP of 1.563, an FIP of 5.92, had given up more than a hit per inning and was striking out only 5.3 per 9 while walking 4.6 per 9. I referenced this trade in my comment. Travis Wood is 28, left-handed, has been a starter but is now currently a middle reliever. Even during his struggles this season, he has struck out over a batter per inning (10 per 9) while walking 3.1 per 9, has a lower WHIP and FIP than Morris did at the time of his trade. I still don't get why the Marlins gave up the 39th pick for Morris but since they did, is it really so outlandish to think that another team might do the same for Wood? Or Pineyro? Or someone else who is expendable due to the depth in the system?

 

Whatever. I'd like to see the Cubs trade for a comp pick and I think they have the depth in their system to spare, the question is will another team bite like the Marlins did last season...

[Redfoot]

Keith Law just put out his latest mock. If someone with a subscription could post the top 10 it would be much appreciated.

[Tedward]

Keith Law just put out his latest mock. If someone with a subscription could post the top 10 it would be much appreciated.

 

1) Swanson

2) Bregman

3) Rogers

4) Tate

5) Tucker

6) Allard

7) Benintendi

8) Fulmer

9) Jay

10) Newman

[Cubswin11]

I would think Law is chatting today as well, so should have some good info come out of that

[Guest]

BA's most recent mock has the Cubs passing on a falling Dillon Tate for Jon Harris:

 

9. Cubs

 

The Cubs have surprised the last couple of drafts, taking hitters over pitchers, but industry chatter is that they will go for an arm this year. The latest chatter is for Jon Harris of Missouri State, but they have checked in on Tate late and could be in on him here as well. Harris, though, is a better bet to start.

 

Selection: Jon Harris, rhp, Missouri State

[SouthSideRyan]

Also, with the rule change making 1st round picks tradeable after 5 months instead of 12, and with Aiken and Matuella out of commission for about another 5 months before they'd start throwing for real, the timeline seems set up nicely to trade for one of those guys. I have no idea what it would take or given the asking price if it'd be worth it, but the Cubs have a deep system and the timeline is uniquely fortuitous.

 

If the price is fair, it'd be quite the coup to get a guy at #9 who they like and will underslot allowing them to land one or two of the tough-to-sign arms in the middle rounds plus get Aiken or Matuella in a deal.

 

Sorry if this has been discussed already, but with the change in the timeframe on trading 1st round picks, do people think there are going to be de-facto draft pick trading, primarily with pitchers who might be shut down for the rest of the season anyway?

[toonsterwu]

I am so very lukewarm on Jon Harris. If it's Harris or Tate, I gamble on Tate's upside, even if Harris is safer as a starter. I don't care that much for Benintendi (sounds nice, intriguing, but not exactly excited about it), but I much prefer him over either of the two college starters.

 

Honestly ... instead of Harris or Kapreilian there, I'd almost rather, assuming decent medicals, see if Kirby, Matuella, or someone else who has dropped is willing to take some sort of under-slot deal (which would likely still be higher than whatever is available late round 1) and gamble. Won't happen ... at least I don't think they'll under-slot a guy coming off an injured year, but dang if I am not hugely interested in taking guys like Harris or Kapreilian at number 9. Geesh ... that feels like taking a Zastryzny that high, and I think you can find those arms later (nothing against both ... as I think both could be good, but damn if I'm not excited on either one of them).

[Guest]

Agree, toonster. I'd rathee have Tate than Harris. Harris might be considered "safe" but all pitchers have a certain, high injury risk so safe is pretty meaningless. If you're going to take a P that high, I want the equally rated rated with the higher ceiling (as long as there are no injury red flags).

[toonsterwu]

To be quite honest ... I don't love Tate either. That said, only saw that start in regionals (other than that, just clips), and he supposedly tired down the stretch. Don't recall what bothered me ... but boy ... I thought he was a pen arm type, not a starter.

 

From a draft perspective, I'm honestly curious if Kirby pitches this weekend and how well he pitches. From a UVA perspective, I hope we don't need Kirby this weekend unless it's for an inning or two (that is, if he's starting, it's Game 3 ... and I'd be worried). Draft wise, it seemed like Kirby's name stayed afloat once people felt his problems were due to the lat strain. If he shows well, I really wonder if he could move back to mid-first. Probably still outside of where the Cubs area, but it feels like one of the few intriguing subplots from supers this weekend, from a draft perspective.

[weis21]

McDaniel at FanGraphs mocked the first 11 and has the Cubs taking Jay at 9

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mock-draft-replacement-post/

 

9. Cubs – Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois

 

Ian Happ had a private workout in Wrigley Field a few days ago and is seen as emerging from the huge group of names tied to the Cubs. I think, like Boston, that they like every single player going ahead of them here, but the assumption is that they have Jay ahead of Happ, as the home state player could be an ace and has the upside to justify breaking up the Cubs’ streak of selecting hitters with top picks.

[Guest]

The start of that McDaniel mock also has some good info on Aiken and Kirby's injury situation.

[davell]

He also subtly calls out BA for doing weekly mocks without having any true info to make changes with.

[Gilby]

Interesting, Law and McDaniel's mocks for the top 9 are the exact same except for the Twins at 6 (Allard/Cameron). Despite being a pitcher, Jay is a more exciting pick than I've been expecting.