NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2014

[bukie]

St. Joes beats Dayton. bukie, you think Dayton is safe even with the loss?

 

Nebraska blows an 18 point lead and loses to Ohio State. Same question about Nebraska.

Dayton was 2 short of the bye before the loss, so they might go to Dayton, which would be interesting.

 

Nebraska was the last team in yesterday, so it's precarious, especially since Tennessee was on the other edge of the bubble.

[bukie]

I would have liked to see what would have happened had Abrams been able to make that shot, though.

[bukie]

I'll update the data as soon as looking at college basketball stuff doesn't anger me.

[bukie]

Because I hate myself, I ran the data assuming Abrams' shot had gone in, and Illinois would have been the last team in. With the correct data, it's Kansas State.

 

Last four byes:

Florida St.

Stanford

BYU

Saint Joseph's

 

Last four in:

Southern Miss

Dayton

Arizona St.

Kansas St.

 

First four out:

Tennessee

Nebraska

Missouri

St. John's

 

Next four out:

Green Bay

Illinois

Utah

North Carolina St.

[UMFan83]

I just have a hard time seeing Nebraska not make it. Bracket matrix only has one person with Nebraska out of their updated brackets.

[bukie]

If I had to guess, I'd have Nebraska and Tennessee in, and Southern Miss and Dayton out.

[bukie]

If I tweak the data to make KP worth more and tier game data worth less (making it closer to 50/50), I get:

 

Safely in:

SMU

Tennessee

Xavier

Providence

 

Last four byes:

Florida St.

Stanford

Arizona St.

BYU

 

Last four in:

Nebraska

Kansas St.

St. John's

Colorado

 

First four out:

Utah

Dayton

St. Joe's

Southern Miss

 

Next four out:

Illinois

Green Bay

NC State

Missouri

[illiniguy]

So would beating Michigan have jumped 5 to 6 teams? Or did we need one more?

[bukie]

So would beating Michigan have jumped 5 to 6 teams? Or did we need one more?

In one model (the first one), they would have been the last team in. In the second model, they would have been the first team out.

[illiniguy]

So would beating Michigan have jumped 5 to 6 teams? Or did we need one more?

In one model (the first one), they would have been the last team in. In the second model, they would have been the first team out.

Damn, I really think we would have beat OSU today as well. We were playing very well.

[bukie]

First attempt at a bracket, straight S-curve, not worrying about bracket rules yet.

 

http://i.imgur.com/UmeymX8.png

[bukie]

And because it took me so long to put together, it's already wrong, as Albany beat Stony Brook to win the America East.

[bukie]

Tulsa may have just stolen a bid by winning CUSA.

[abuck1220]

really hoping for a 3 seed for iowa st. not sure why their resume is any worse than, say, virginia's.

[bcl412]

I'd rather Iowa get a 10 than a 9.

[hawkeyecub]

Yeah I'm hoping for a 10 at this point. Somewhat surprised to see you guys have them as a 9, but that's comforting. 93/99 on the Bracket Matrix have them in, average seed of 9.9 but ranked as the 2nd 10 seed overall. Can't completely shake the feeling that somehow we get left out or sent to Dayton though.

 

3 weeks ago today we were ranked 16th, 19-6, 8-4, projected to finish with an RPI near 20 and a 4-5 seed. [expletive].

[bukie]

Texas Southern wins the SWAC, and even get the auto bid since they were one of the eligible teams.

 

St. Joe's beat St. Bonnies, and Duke beat NC State, so I think that will prevent any Sunday bid thefts.

[bukie]

Western Michigan wins the MAC, North Carolina Central wins the MEAC, and New Mexico wins the MWC.

[bukie]

Weber State wins the Big Sky, Stephen F. Austin wins the Southland, and Providence makes sure they get in by winning the Big East.

[bukie]

Also, UCLA wins the Pac-12 and Louisville wins the American.

[bukie]

Iowa State wins the Big 12.

[bukie]

Cal Poly wins the Big West at 13-19, and New Mexico St. wins the WAC.

 

Only bid in play today for teams not in the at-large pool already is the Sun Belt.

[UMFan83]

Lunardi and Jerry Palm both say Michigan is a 1 seed regardless of whether they win today bc of the late start. Seems a bit of a stretch.

[bukie]

Those two are the worst kind of prognosticators. Wrong frequently and yet always indignant when anyone tries to call them on it.

[Exile on Waveland]

What if Michigan wins today, 1-seed? They've had a really good year but they don't scream "No. 1 seed" to me. Though that might not be atypical this year. Edited March 16, 2014 by Exile on Waveland