Who is the Cubs #12 Prospect?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The poll will be open for 48 hours.

 

Results so far:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Kris Bryant

3. Albert Almora

4. Jorge Soler

5. CJ Edwards

6. Arismendy Alcantara

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Daniel Vogelbach

9. Christian Villanueva

10. Jeimer Candelario

11. Mike Olt

[Bilbo161]

I went with Hendricks and Zastryzny. Can't decide between Black, Blackburn and Ramirez for the third.

[Guest]

At this point I'm just gonna be a dick and not vote for Hendricks at all. The first couple times, I didn't even realize I was doing it (not that I would've voted for him).

 

Law and the minor league BN guy Luke sold me

 

Blackburn

Black

[davell]

In order for me:Vizcaino, Hendricks, and Blackburn.

[CubsWin]

Blackburn.

 

You have to look deeper than just his season long stats last year...

 

1. He was a supplemental 1st round pick, 56th overall. Good draft pedigree.

 

2. He was 19 last season and just turned 20 a month and a half ago.

 

3. He started the year off great. In his first 5 starts, he had a WHIP of 1.00, struckout 24, walked 8 and posted a 1.17 ERA in 23 IP. Then he went through what a Cubs executive called a dead arm period and struggled mightily. I don't know if he was working on new pitches as well, but his solid control went bye-bye. I would've been down on him, but the moment the playoffs arrived for Boise, he was the same guy he was at the start of the season. Either his dead arm period ended with perfect timing or he was working on new pitches and scrapped them when the playoffs came around. In his two playoff starts, he pitched 12 innings, gave up 5 hits, 1 run (earned), walked 1 and struckout 17.

 

4. The scouting report on him is very...very encouraging. FB hits 95 with some regularity. Good curve was sitting at 80 which is a milestone scouts look for. An 80 mph curve denotes top end arm speed.

 

5. He reportedly added 15 pounds of muscle last season and still has about 15 more pounds to add before fully filling out his frame.

 

6. He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and has lots of pitchability (i.e understands setting up hitters, high baseball IQ, instincts for the position, etc.)

 

7. Of the remaining prospects, he has the highest ceiling next to Vizcaino without the injury history.

 

He's the only guy I voted for.

[Guest]

Blackburn.

 

You have to look deeper than just his season long stats last year...

 

1. He was a supplemental 1st round pick, 56th overall. Good draft pedigree.

 

2. He was 19 last season and just turned 20 a month and a half ago.

 

3. He started the year off great. In his first 5 starts, he had a WHIP of 1.00, struckout 24, walked 8 and posted a 1.17 ERA in 23 IP. Then he went through what a Cubs executive called a dead arm period and struggled mightily. I don't know if he was working on new pitches as well, but his solid control went bye-bye. I would've been down on him, but the moment the playoffs arrived for Boise, he was the same guy he was at the start of the season. Either his dead arm period ended with perfect timing or he was working on new pitches and scrapped them when the playoffs came around. In his two playoff starts, he pitched 12 innings, gave up 5 hits, 1 run (earned), walked 1 and struckout 17.

 

4. The scouting report on him is very...very encouraging. FB hits 95 with some regularity. Good curve was sitting at 80 which is a milestone scouts look for. An 80 mph curve denotes top end arm speed.

 

5. He reportedly added 15 pounds of muscle last season and still has about 15 more pounds to add before fully filling out his frame.

 

6. He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and has lots of pitchability (i.e understands setting up hitters, high baseball IQ, instincts for the position, etc.)

 

7. Of the remaining prospects, he has the highest ceiling next to Vizcaino without the injury history.

 

He's the only guy I voted for.

 

[expletive] it I wanna put him at like 7 after reading it put this way

[A New Era]

Draft pedigree is why I chose Zastryzny. Both he and Blackburn could really take a step forward this year. They should probably be 12a and 12b. By the end of the year they both likely will be in our top 10 and could enter the Pierce Johnson range of prospectyness. That of a top 100 pitching prospect.

[Warpticon]

Blackburn.

 

You have to look deeper than just his season long stats last year...

 

1. He was a supplemental 1st round pick, 56th overall. Good draft pedigree.

 

2. He was 19 last season and just turned 20 a month and a half ago.

 

3. He started the year off great. In his first 5 starts, he had a WHIP of 1.00, struckout 24, walked 8 and posted a 1.17 ERA in 23 IP. Then he went through what a Cubs executive called a dead arm period and struggled mightily. I don't know if he was working on new pitches as well, but his solid control went bye-bye. I would've been down on him, but the moment the playoffs arrived for Boise, he was the same guy he was at the start of the season. Either his dead arm period ended with perfect timing or he was working on new pitches and scrapped them when the playoffs came around. In his two playoff starts, he pitched 12 innings, gave up 5 hits, 1 run (earned), walked 1 and struckout 17.

 

4. The scouting report on him is very...very encouraging. FB hits 95 with some regularity. Good curve was sitting at 80 which is a milestone scouts look for. An 80 mph curve denotes top end arm speed.

 

5. He reportedly added 15 pounds of muscle last season and still has about 15 more pounds to add before fully filling out his frame.

 

6. He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and has lots of pitchability (i.e understands setting up hitters, high baseball IQ, instincts for the position, etc.)

 

7. Of the remaining prospects, he has the highest ceiling next to Vizcaino without the injury history.

 

He's the only guy I voted for.

 

Does he have a higher ceiling than somebody like Underwood? I mean, he's a lot closer to it, but as for it being higher...

[Cubswin11]

Blackburn

Black

Z

[CubsWin]

Blackburn.

 

You have to look deeper than just his season long stats last year...

 

1. He was a supplemental 1st round pick, 56th overall. Good draft pedigree.

 

2. He was 19 last season and just turned 20 a month and a half ago.

 

3. He started the year off great. In his first 5 starts, he had a WHIP of 1.00, struckout 24, walked 8 and posted a 1.17 ERA in 23 IP. Then he went through what a Cubs executive called a dead arm period and struggled mightily. I don't know if he was working on new pitches as well, but his solid control went bye-bye. I would've been down on him, but the moment the playoffs arrived for Boise, he was the same guy he was at the start of the season. Either his dead arm period ended with perfect timing or he was working on new pitches and scrapped them when the playoffs came around. In his two playoff starts, he pitched 12 innings, gave up 5 hits, 1 run (earned), walked 1 and struckout 17.

 

4. The scouting report on him is very...very encouraging. FB hits 95 with some regularity. Good curve was sitting at 80 which is a milestone scouts look for. An 80 mph curve denotes top end arm speed.

 

5. He reportedly added 15 pounds of muscle last season and still has about 15 more pounds to add before fully filling out his frame.

 

6. He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and has lots of pitchability (i.e understands setting up hitters, high baseball IQ, instincts for the position, etc.)

 

7. Of the remaining prospects, he has the highest ceiling next to Vizcaino without the injury history.

 

He's the only guy I voted for.

 

Does he have a higher ceiling than somebody like Underwood? I mean, he's a lot closer to it, but as for it being higher...

When they were draft side-by-side in 2012, Underwood was described as being erratic with the ability to throw a 98 mph FB when it was on but it would also dip down into the low 90s and even 80s when he was off with it. Same with the curve. The change up was more consistent than the curve but still developing. Blackburn was the more steady and unspectacular of the two.

 

The word since joining the Cubs is that his Underwood's FB is sitting 91-94. Blackburn's FB seems to have surpassed Underwood's since being drafted. His control seems to be way better than Underwood's. The reports on these guys and the chatter have Blackburn progressing to the point where he now may have the higher ceiling. But ceiling is such a subjective thing that I'm sure an equally good argument could be made for Underwood.

[Bilbo161]

At this point I'm just gonna be a dick and not vote for Hendricks at all. The first couple times, I didn't even realize I was doing it (not that I would've voted for him).

 

Law and the minor league BN guy Luke sold me

 

Blackburn

Black

 

Yeah I can see that take on Hendricks. It's just not for me. The guy has delivered results. How often have we salivated over some guys stuff only to watch him get lit up in the majors? I think he has earned it where it counts. That said, we still have to see what he does when he gets his cup of Joe.

 

That is no insult to Blackburn or Black. Arguello over at Cubs Den had the same take on Blackburn CubsWin put up here. He also mentioned that whenever he talked to scouts about him the label "stud" was being mentioned. Can't get too much better for a kid his age. And Law having Black in the top ten has given me confidence to move him up in my estimation too. Hard to pick wrong here with any of those guys. Can't wait for spring training to start. This season will be fun.

[pitchcs]

Hendricks

[Guest]

Personally I'm not comfortable with the hand-waving it takes to put Blackburn in front of Hendricks. Blackburn has better stuff and had some strong stretches, but you can't ignore the fact that he was downright bad in aggregate(1.50 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.9 BB/9), especially when he's still at short season and Hendricks is putting up pristine numbers 4 levels higher. Blackburn may make that jump, the word on his stuff improving is great. But jumping him that high already is premature.

[Guest]

Blackburn.

 

You have to look deeper than just his season long stats last year...

 

1. He was a supplemental 1st round pick, 56th overall. Good draft pedigree.

 

2. He was 19 last season and just turned 20 a month and a half ago.

 

3. He started the year off great. In his first 5 starts, he had a WHIP of 1.00, struckout 24, walked 8 and posted a 1.17 ERA in 23 IP. Then he went through what a Cubs executive called a dead arm period and struggled mightily. I don't know if he was working on new pitches as well, but his solid control went bye-bye. I would've been down on him, but the moment the playoffs arrived for Boise, he was the same guy he was at the start of the season. Either his dead arm period ended with perfect timing or he was working on new pitches and scrapped them when the playoffs came around. In his two playoff starts, he pitched 12 innings, gave up 5 hits, 1 run (earned), walked 1 and struckout 17.

 

4. The scouting report on him is very...very encouraging. FB hits 95 with some regularity. Good curve was sitting at 80 which is a milestone scouts look for. An 80 mph curve denotes top end arm speed.

 

5. He reportedly added 15 pounds of muscle last season and still has about 15 more pounds to add before fully filling out his frame.

 

6. He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and has lots of pitchability (i.e understands setting up hitters, high baseball IQ, instincts for the position, etc.)

 

7. Of the remaining prospects, he has the highest ceiling next to Vizcaino without the injury history.

 

He's the only guy I voted for.

 

Does he have a higher ceiling than somebody like Underwood? I mean, he's a lot closer to it, but as for it being higher...

When they were draft side-by-side in 2012, Underwood was described as being erratic with the ability to throw a 98 mph FB when it was on but it would also dip down into the low 90s and even 80s when he was off with it. Same with the curve. The change up was more consistent than the curve but still developing. Blackburn was the more steady and unspectacular of the two.

 

The word since joining the Cubs is that his Underwood's FB is sitting 91-94. Blackburn's FB seems to have surpassed Underwood's since being drafted. His control seems to be way better than Underwood's. The reports on these guys and the chatter have Blackburn progressing to the point where he now may have the higher ceiling. But ceiling is such a subjective thing that I'm sure an equally good argument could be made for Underwood.

 

Underwood certainly has a higher ceiling, Blackburn just seems more likely to get closer to his ceiling and being a better player.

 

Also, besides Vizcaino and Underwood, Eloy Jimenez also has a higher ceiling than Blackburn too (though you might have just been referring to pitchers).

[Guest]

Personally I'm not comfortable with the hand-waving it takes to put Blackburn in front of Hendricks. Blackburn has better stuff and had some strong stretches, but you can't ignore the fact that he was downright bad in aggregate(1.50 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.9 BB/9), especially when he's still at short season and Hendricks is putting up pristine numbers 4 levels higher. Blackburn may make that jump, the word on his stuff improving is great. But jumping him that high already is premature.

 

I get it...but just the way I see it, I'm gonna take the guy that throws 95 and has exhibited very good control when (allegedly) healthy over the guy who tops out at 88, no matter how well his soft stuff does against AA and AAA hitters. If things go well with Hendricks, I see a serviceable guy you don't mind in your rotation (I realize that's really vague/generalized)...and I don't see much more upside than that.

 

I also get that that's really valuable as a rookie salary/cost controlled guy for years vs. paying Paul Maholm $5M to be that, or whatever.

 

But I fully concede that you know more about this than I do.

 

I just find Blackburn much more interesting...but maybe that doesn't necessarily mean better prospect.

[Guest]

I'm not trying to make it stuff v. numbers, but there's just too much pointing one way, IMO.

 

- Hendricks wasn't just good, he was really really good. Best of his already productive career.

- Blackburn wasn't just "not as good as Hendricks", he was objectively bad. That may change because of dead arm or w/e, but he only threw 66 IP, meaning his "good" stretch is so comparatively small that I can't take it as an undeniable indicator.

- Blackburn has better stuff, but he's not exactly a guy with incredible ceiling either. That may change with further development, but again we come back to "not there yet".

- There's an enormous gap in level. Mesa/Boise v. Tennessee/Iowa is about as large as such a gap can be.

 

I want an excuse to move Blackburn up the list, he's one of the best chances they have to add to Johnson/Edwards at the top of the pitching prospect heap. But Blackburn hasn't done that yet, hopefully this year he will.

[Bilbo161]

I'm not trying to make it stuff v. numbers, but there's just too much pointing one way, IMO.

 

- Hendricks wasn't just good, he was really really good. Best of his already productive career.

- Blackburn wasn't just "not as good as Hendricks", he was objectively bad. That may change because of dead arm or w/e, but he only threw 66 IP, meaning his "good" stretch is so comparatively small that I can't take it as an undeniable indicator.

- Blackburn has better stuff, but he's not exactly a guy with incredible ceiling either. That may change with further development, but again we come back to "not there yet".

- There's an enormous gap in level. Mesa/Boise v. Tennessee/Iowa is about as large as such a gap can be.

 

I want an excuse to move Blackburn up the list, he's one of the best chances they have to add to Johnson/Edwards at the top of the pitching prospect heap. But Blackburn hasn't done that yet, hopefully this year he will.

 

I think I am moving him up with all the posts I'm reading, just not ahead of Hendricks for now. That could change of course, just not yet for me either.

[Thrilho]

A big factor in me voting Blackburn here is the playoff starts. We don’t have much data to work with on him (or Z, Skulina, Frazier, Underwood, etc), so when looking at these guys sometimes the best we have to go on is flashes of talent. He totally lost his control through July and August, but when the playoffs started some switch flipped and he had 17K/1BB in 12 innings.

 

In July and August he had 18K/27BB in 31 IP, and in the 3 games leading into the playoffs it was 8K/12BB in 11 IP. He goes from that to his 7IP 2H 0R 0BB 8K outing in the playoffs. And then to 5IP 3H 1R 1BB 9K. It makes me think they were working on something with him, and that was affecting his control to some extent.

 

The way I look at it with my rose colored glasses is that hopefully the playoff performance represented the “final product” of his work with the coaches throughout the year. That thought, together with the 20K/3BB June, is enough for me to dream on his control.

 

The one thing that never really got away from him was his G/F ratio. For the year it was 2.33 (6.1 in June, 1.89 in July, 1.59 in Aug). After the 20/3 ratio he put up in June, he was pretty consistent, and the only two games he really got blown up were the only two where he had more fly balls than ground balls (7/12 and 8/18).

 

And something that gets lost in the peripheral discussion is that he had a 3.18 ERA in August. For a month in which he had a 2.00 WHIP and 10 Ks in 17 IP, that’s a pretty good job of stranding base runners. That might speak to the “feel for pitching” stuff Arguello had from DJ, or it might have just been luck. Or I might just be reaching to find bright spots.

 

 

Anyway, my next three are Blackburn, Vizcaino, and Hendricks.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Thrilho

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If the best we have to go on is a flash of talent and 55 picks passing on him, them maybe we should just move him down the list.

[Thrilho]

Also, 3 HRs in 58 isn't bad. If he gets ground balls and prevents HR, he's less dependent on developing MLB strikeout stuff. Still obviously needs to get the walks down. Edited February 1, 2014 by Thrilho

[Thrilho]

If the best we have to go on is a flash of talent and 55 picks passing on him, them maybe we should just move him down the list.

 

I had a feeling someone would call that out, so I'd like to define it further. When I say flash I'm talking about some form of prolonged performance. Not "he flashes X type of stuff" or "he flashes a couple good innings then has a bad one." In this case I'm talking about three 5 inning starts to start the season and two in the playoffs. So 27 innings out of a 58 inning season.

[craig]

I voted Z, Hendricks, and Vizcaino in no particular order (as I have for the last two rounds). But I view Blackburn and Black in that same pool.

 

Hendricks/Blackburn: nice contrast in proven success versus future possibility. I like them both, a lot. That guys like that, and others of comparable value, can be falling in our 12-16 range is very encouraging. I think the pitching might look a lot more optimistic as he year goes by.

 

Blackburn is 95 vs Hendricks is 88 is deceptive. That's using Blackburn's top versus Hendricks's working average. Blackburn may have hit 95 a number of times in his first two starts, but his average working velocity is normally lower, probably 89-92; and Hendricks can hit 92 at times, he just doesn't work there often. I think this also touches on Blackburn versus Underwood. Does Underwood have a higher ceiling because he touched 98 twice? Maybe. But it's not like he's routinely throwing 98 and doing so for strikes. I think often the effective working velocity between some of these guys tends to be compressed.

 

I am encouraged to hear that some scouting sources are apparently fairly buzzed on Blackburn. If he has gotten stronger and will continue to get enough stronger so that he can be routinely working 91-93 and popping some 95-96 change-of-pace fastballs at times, that combined with his curveball and his feel for pitching could make him a very, very good prospect. My guess when it all shakes out is that his fastball will not be unusually fast, but if he can throw with average speed while having above average location and an excellent breaking ball, even average velocity may be enough to give him well above-average big-league success.

[Guest]

I went with Hendricks, Z + Blackburn again.

[mul21]

My brain has trouble separating Maples, Underwood and Blackburn for some reason. I can't keep the 3 of them straight. I voted for Hendricks.

[Bull]

Can we stop calling Zastryzny, "Z"? It brings up memories of the hopes I had for Julio Zuleta.