Theo on w/Kapman

[USSoccer]

The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here.

 

I don't think that's true at all.

 

Major changes off the top of my head

 

Out or significantly lost talent:

Soto, Castro, Garza, Dempster, Marshall

 

In or significantly gained talent:

Jackson, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Castillo, Samardzija

 

Pretty close to a wash, imo. Could make a case either way.

 

Ramirez? Soriano? Wells? This is the roster that finished 2011. You can't tell me in any universe that this current team is better than that one. Cheaper? Yes. Younger? Yes. Better? Hell no.

[Bull]

The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here.

 

I don't think that's true at all.

 

Major changes off the top of my head

 

Out or significantly lost talent:

Soto, Castro, Garza, Dempster, Marshall

 

In or significantly gained talent:

Jackson, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Castillo, Samardzija

 

Pretty close to a wash, imo. Could make a case either way.

 

Ramirez? Soriano? Wells? This is the roster that finished 2011. You can't tell me in any universe that this current team is better than that one. Cheaper? Yes. Younger? Yes. Better? Hell no.

. It's been a long 2 years.

[Guest]

The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here.

 

I don't think that's true at all.

 

Major changes off the top of my head

 

Out or significantly lost talent:

Soto, Castro, Garza, Dempster, Marshall

 

In or significantly gained talent:

Jackson, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Castillo, Samardzija

 

Pretty close to a wash, imo. Could make a case either way.

 

Ramirez? Soriano? Wells? This is the roster that finished 2011. You can't tell me in any universe that this current team is better than that one. Cheaper? Yes. Younger? Yes. Better? Hell no.

 

The 2011 team won 71 games with a pythagorean of 70. The current roster is certainly not worse than that, from a projection standpoint. And we've still got an offseason in front of us.

 

The bigger issue is that the 2011 team's value was consolidated in post-prime guys near free agency. The 2011 Cubs put up 27 fWAR. 13 of those wins came from guys over 30 who were either pending FAs or one year from FA. Theo had a lot of work to do just to tread water. For comparison, this year's Cubs put up 26 fWAR and 6 of those wins came from that category.

[USSoccer]

The 2011 team won 71 games with a pythagorean of 70. The current roster is certainly not worse than that, from a projection standpoint. And we've still got an offseason in front of us.

 

The bigger issue is that the 2011 team's value was consolidated in post-prime guys near free agency. The 2011 Cubs put up 27 fWAR. 13 of those wins came from guys over 30 who were either pending FAs or one year from FA. Theo had a lot of work to do just to tread water. For comparison, this year's Cubs put up 26 fWAR and 6 of those wins came from that category.

 

How does that break down between offense and pitching? I find it very difficult to believe that even now, if you plugged in Ramirez at 3B instead of Valbuena, Soriano in LF instead of whatever's there now, 2011 Castro as opposed to 2013 Castro, you don't have a better team.

 

Also FWIW, Pena in 2011 was much better than Rizzo in 2013. Ramirez was orders of magnitude better than Valbuena, and Castro sucks now thanks in part to Theo and Co. screwing around with him.

 

We aren't talking about cost or age. We're talking about whether or not the ML team is more talented now than before Theo got here. I don't see how it is. And it's ultimately the major league team that he should be judged on after 5 years of being here.

[Tryptamine]

My point is that even if the team sucks in 5 years, it probably isn't due to lack of ability of the FO.

 

Is there anything short of setting fire to Javy Baez in the batters box that could ever get Epstein dinged with a bit of failure with some people?

 

Not when we find out every few months that there was yet another hindrance that we never would have anticipated back when he was hired. We didn't have any clue about 90% of the problems were facing now back when he was hired.

[USSoccer]

My point is that even if the team sucks in 5 years, it probably isn't due to lack of ability of the FO.

 

Is there anything short of setting fire to Javy Baez in the batters box that could ever get Epstein dinged with a bit of failure with some people?

 

Not when we find out every few months that there was yet another hindrance that we never would have anticipated back when he was hired. We didn't have any clue about 90% of the problems were facing now back when he was hired.

 

It's his job to overcome hindrances to success.

[Guest]

The 2011 team won 71 games with a pythagorean of 70. The current roster is certainly not worse than that, from a projection standpoint. And we've still got an offseason in front of us.

 

The bigger issue is that the 2011 team's value was consolidated in post-prime guys near free agency. The 2011 Cubs put up 27 fWAR. 13 of those wins came from guys over 30 who were either pending FAs or one year from FA. Theo had a lot of work to do just to tread water. For comparison, this year's Cubs put up 26 fWAR and 6 of those wins came from that category.

 

How does that break down between offense and pitching? I find it very difficult to believe that even now, if you plugged in Ramirez at 3B instead of Valbuena, Soriano in LF instead of whatever's there now, 2011 Castro as opposed to 2013 Castro, you don't have a better team.

 

Also FWIW, Pena in 2011 was much better than Rizzo in 2013. Ramirez was orders of magnitude better than Valbuena, and Castro sucks now thanks in part to Theo and Co. screwing around with him.

 

We aren't talking about cost or age. We're talking about whether or not the ML team is more talented now than before Theo got here. I don't see how it is. And it's ultimately the major league team that he should be judged on after 5 years of being here.

 

All position players

 

Pos   2011  2013
C      1.7   4.9
1B     2.0   1.6
2B     1.7  -0.4
SS     3.2  -0.1
3B     3.3   3.8
OF     4.3   7.8
Total 16.2  17.6

 

Starters only, which to keep my sanity I'll define as most PA at a position:

 

Pos   2011  2013
C      2.2   3.2
1B     2.2   1.6
2B     1.9   0.4
SS     3.2  -0.1
3B     3.3   2.0
OF     2.7   4.5
Total 15.3  11.6

 

Important notes here are that 2011 gets hurt by Kosuke holding down a OF spot, and that 2013 had platoons at 3B and in the OF that added ~3-4 wins.

 

To the specific points you mentioned, Pena was a 2.0 win player to Rizzo's 1.7, Ramirez 3.3 to Valbuena's 2.0(although this is pretty equal on a rate basis or if you include Valbuena's platoon mate), and of course Castro 3.2 to Castro -0.1.

[Splendid Splinter]

USSoccer...

 

You do realized that 2011 Cubs won 71 and 2013 won 66 right? Both teams completely sucked so who cares who had the "better" team. What matters (to me anyway) is that I feel a lot better about the Cubs' future/organization/Theo's plan/etc than I was in 2010/2011 even with the lower payroll/Wrigley reno being delayed/etc. That being said... I want to see some type of progress on the MLB roster this coming season. Like Castro/Rizzo improving, Baez/Bryant being ready and called up in the 2nd half of the season, getting Tanaka/trade for impact player, and Travis Wood repeat his 2013 season for example. Getting the minor league system from being bad into top 5 has been fun and great to watch, but it has been long enough that it has to start showing up on the MLB level IMO.

[imb]

very proud of everyone here (except uss :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: ) for not responding to kyle stupid troll [expletive] in this thread. keep ignoring him until he ramps it up to even more epic stupidity, please.

[USSoccer]

very proud of everyone here (except uss :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: ) for not responding to kyle stupid troll [expletive] in this thread. keep ignoring him until he ramps it up to even more epic stupidity, please.

 

Dammit. I knew there was something I was forgetting about.

[treebird]

very proud of everyone here (except uss :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: ) for not responding to kyle stupid troll [expletive] in this thread. keep ignoring him until he ramps it up to even more epic stupidity, please.

 

Dammit. I knew there was something I was forgetting about.

 

totally ignoring kyle's garbage isn't something any of us can accomplish overnight. we're all improving and that's what counts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's his job to overcome hindrances to success.

 

 

The perceived scale of the hindrances is proportional to how much rope Epstein needs to have his lack of MLB success explained away. In two years we'll have been an expansion team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

very proud of everyone here (except uss :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: ) for not responding to kyle stupid troll [expletive] in this thread. keep ignoring him until he ramps it up to even more epic stupidity, please.

 

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8syetgh7g1qeiocm.gif

[Guest]

i don't get why a lot of people are kind of assuming they'll suck after theo's first 5 years when it's only been 2 years (and most of us were pretty happy with last offseason, considering financial restrictions). it also seems like he's still indirectly being blamed for the payroll situation, even though it's pretty clear at this point that he isn't the one responsible for that.

 

considering the entire strategy of the FO's plan, it's pretty pointless to say things like "they haven't done anything that other GMs couldn't have done so far". well no [expletive], the main reason people wanted theo was for his ability to draft and develop young talent. until these young guys they've stockpiled reach the majors and prove whether or not they're good, we have no way to actually judge what they've done so far. you're all turning into backtobanks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Having a conversation based on a hypothetical isn't the same as assuming it will be true.

[jersey cubs fan]

i don't get why a lot of people are kind of assuming they'll suck after theo's first 5 years when it's only been 2 years

 

I don't see a lot of people making that assumption. The conversation was about unnecessarily fretting that Theo may leave before the team starts to win.

[Backtobanks]

i don't get why a lot of people are kind of assuming they'll suck after theo's first 5 years when it's only been 2 years (and most of us were pretty happy with last offseason, considering financial restrictions). it also seems like he's still indirectly being blamed for the payroll situation, even though it's pretty clear at this point that he isn't the one responsible for that.

 

considering the entire strategy of the FO's plan, it's pretty pointless to say things like "they haven't done anything that other GMs couldn't have done so far". well no [expletive], the main reason people wanted theo was for his ability to draft and develop young talent. until these young guys they've stockpiled reach the majors and prove whether or not they're good, we have no way to actually judge what they've done so far. you're all turning into backtobanks.

 

We can judge what they've done at the ML level "so far" and it's been embarrassing. I think a lot of posters (including me) are willing to wait for our prospects, assuming the timeline is reasonable. Unfortunately, the 2014 Cubs look like they will again be awful. Much of this discussion was based on the hypothetical situation of the Cubs "not turning the corner" by the end of Theo's contract. I stand by my statement that if the Cubs aren't a serious contender by the end of Theo's contract, then Theo and his plan failed. If that happens we shouldn't overlook 5 years of frustration because of a million excuses and his IQ. Hopefully all of this is moot and the prospects will be everything we hoped for so that we can win a WS in the near future.

[Guest]

well you also apparently think the lack of big free agent signing is because theo is cheap and not ricketts

 

"if the cubs are still bad at the end of theo's run, then in this hypothetical situation, they will have been bad during theo's run. no excuses!"

 

is that the basic argument here? that things will be bad if they go bad?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

well you also apparently think the lack of big free agent signing is because theo is cheap and not ricketts

 

"if the cubs are still bad at the end of theo's run, then in this hypothetical situation, they will have been bad during theo's run. no excuses!"

 

is that the basic argument here? that things will be bad if they go bad?

 

You say it as if it is obvious, but some insisted that if the Cubs are still bad at Theo's run, it must have been due to outside circumstances beyond his control.

[Guest]

well you also apparently think the lack of big free agent signing is because theo is cheap and not ricketts

 

"if the cubs are still bad at the end of theo's run, then in this hypothetical situation, they will have been bad during theo's run. no excuses!"

 

is that the basic argument here? that things will be bad if they go bad?

 

You say it as if it is obvious, but some insisted that if the Cubs are still bad at Theo's run, it must have been due to outside circumstances beyond his control.

 

You clearly didn't understand his post.

[imb]

well you also apparently think the lack of big free agent signing is because theo is cheap and not ricketts

 

"if the cubs are still bad at the end of theo's run, then in this hypothetical situation, they will have been bad during theo's run. no excuses!"

 

is that the basic argument here? that things will be bad if they go bad?

 

You say it as if it is obvious, but some insisted that if the Cubs are still bad at Theo's run, it must have been due to outside circumstances beyond his control.

 

You clearly didn't understand his post.

 

he understood it, he's just kyle

[RynoRules]

Put simplistically, I'd rather have a cheap s--tty team than an expensive one. At least then you can divert formerly wasted resources to building for the future.

 

I want to see them add young pitching before ST, though. That's what Theo has said (several times) is the goal. Ok, fine. Not promising immediate improvement on the ML level for 2014. My expectations are set. Then you better grab at least two or three starting pitchers who will be ML-ready by no later than February 2015 to coincide with the arrival of Almora, Baez, Bryant, etc.

[Beer Kaese]

The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here.

 

I don't think that's true at all.

 

Major changes off the top of my head

 

Out or significantly lost talent:

Soto, Castro, Garza, Dempster, Marshall

 

In or significantly gained talent:

Jackson, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Castillo, Samardzija

 

Pretty close to a wash, imo. Could make a case either way.

 

Ramirez? Soriano? Wells? This is the roster that finished 2011. You can't tell me in any universe that this current team is better than that one. Cheaper? Yes. Younger? Yes. Better? Hell no.

. It's been a long 2 years.

 

Four years. The Cubs should have been aggressive sellers beginning in June 2010. Instead, Hendry traded for Garza and signed Pena (deferred half his salary) and five games into the 2011 season the Cubs were toast.

[Sammy Sofa]

In what insane universe does someone want four years of this hell.

[Guest]

In what insane universe does someone want four years of this hell.

 

He's saying it's been a long 4 years, not 2.