November 20 is Protection Deadline for Rule 5 Draft

[HoopsCubs]

The Rule 5 Draft is on December 12. But players that teams want to protect from the draft must be placed on the 40-man roster by Wednesday.

 

The Cubs currently have 3 spots open on their 40 man roster. Knowledgeable pundits are saying that the Cubs will place Arismendy Alcantara on the 40-man.

 

What other players are "slam dunks" or "near slam dunks" to be protected? If any?

[davell]

No one. Chance someone like Loosen, Beeler, or Jokisch gets kept, but no where near a slam dunk any of them do. Ben Wells may or may not have a clause in his contract that states he has to be added by the end of 2013. Paniagua, depending on how the way MLB reviews his previous stuff may be eligible as well. Not a sure thing either of them would be taken, but they at least have upside, so its conceivable.

 

Ha could get taken, again, no upside though. Amaya is interesting, but with KC being his highest destination so far, can't see anyone hiding him for a year on an active roster. Catching is scarce, Contreras has upside, but same thing applies to him as it does Amaya.

[Guest]

Jokisch and Ha fit the profile of guys who might get picked, but aside from Alcantara, Jokisch is the only one I'd consider, and only then if you were pretty sure that Russell wasn't going to to be on the opening day roster.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I'd rather keep Loosen than Jokisch.

[Cubswin11]

Any players out there that may not get protected/are needed to be protected that if they become Rule 5 eligible you guys would be particularly interested in from other teams?

[Guest]

@jjcoop36: Fascinating case. Cubs awaiting a decision RT @ProspectStats: Any word on Juan Paniagua? Is he eligible for this year's #Rule5?

[Guest]

BA:

 

Chicago Cubs (37)

Extremely Likely Protections: SS/2B Arismendy Alcantara.

Possible Protections: RHP Matt Loosen, 2B Gioskar Amaya, SS Marco Hernandez, RHP Zach Cates.

 

There’s no way the Cubs will let Alcantara into the Rule 5 pool. Loosen was lights-out at high Class A Daytona last year but was then knocked out by Double-A hitters. With an average fastball that touches 94 mph and an assortment of fringy secondary pitches, he likely would make it through the Rule 5 draft, but it only takes one team’s scouts seeing him good. Amaya and Hernandez are a pair of good-glove middle-infield prospects, but considering the rawness of their hit tools and the fact that they’ve barely played above low Class A, they seem safe to leave unprotected. Cates has plenty of arm strength with a fastball that will touch 96 mph, but his lack of a quality second pitch makes it unlikely he could stick on a major league roster even if he’s being stashed for the year.

[Guest]

Cubs added Alcantara and Beeler.

[davell]

Still want to find out if Paniagua is eligible or not....Don't care about Beeler, one way or the other.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Hernandez and Amaya were barely A ready. Maybe some team with a pick burning a hole in their pocket picks one for a short audition, but they'd be home well before Easter.

 

Alcantara is a given. Other than that, I'm more interested in the incoming side of the Rule 5. Anyone worth thinking about?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Still want to find out if Paniagua is eligible or not....Don't care about Beeler, one way or the other.

 

I'm not worried. The way I see it, if he is eligible, he'll be protected. No way they'll let the deadline (midnight?) pass without certainty and risk leaving him unprotected.

[Guest]

I'm having trouble coming up with a scenario where a team decides it's a good idea to draft Paniagua. Or a scenario where we would really care what happens to Paniagua.

[SouthSideRyan]

I take it we're waiting until non-tender time to dump Bard

[Guest]

@BruceMiles2112: For those asking, #Cubs say Paniagua is not Rule 5 eligible

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Four Cubs who J.J. Cooper thinks could get taken in the Rule 5 Draft:

 

Jae-Hoon Ha, of, Cubs: A former catcher, Ha has taken very well to a move to the outfield. Although he’s an average to tick-above average runner, he plays a very solid center field because he gets good jumps. He has enough arm strength to play right field as well.

 

Ha doesn’t have much power, but at his best the lefthanded hitter can draw some walks and get on base. He doesn’t profile as more than a backup outfielder long-term, but with more than 250 games in Double-A and above, he may be ready to fill that role in 2014, and teams would like his major league minimum salary.

 

Marcus Hatley, rhp, Cubs: The Cubs were already sitting at 37 players on their 40-man roster before they added Arismendy Alcantara and Dallas Beeler. That means that the club had to take a risk with a couple of other interesting prospects.

 

Hatley is probably the most interesting. A big (6-foot-5) righthander with a plus fastball (92-95 mph) that he throws with good downhill plane and an average slider and curve, Hatley ranked at the back end of the Cubs’ Top 30 prospects list after the 2011 and 2012 seasons. He struck out 74 batters in 61 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year with adequate control (35 walks) and iffy command.

 

A Tommy John survivor, Hatley has good stuff and more than 150 innings of work in Double-A and Triple-A. Unlike most Rule 5 picks, he could potentially contribute more than just an occasional mop-up inning while making the major league minimum salary. Teams who want to get a closer look at Hatley can scout him in the Mexican Pacific League, where he’s 1-1, 2.57 with six saves in 14 innings with Culiacan. He’s struck out 18 and walked only four.

 

Marco Hernandez, ss, Cubs: Hernandez is a long ways away from being ready to actually help a big league club, but the switch-hitting shortstop has a lot of the attributes teams look for in a potential Rule 5 pick. He has defensive value because he can handle shortstop with range and a plus arm, he’s a tick-above average runner and he has some hitting potential with a solid swing from both sides of the plate. Like many Class A shortstops, he’s not sure-handed yet, so errors would be a problem whenever he played.

 

The bigger question a potential selecting team would have to ask is would they be ruining Hernandez’s long-term potential by picking him and then letting him rot on a big league bench. The year off would hurt him significantly as he needs plenty of minor league at-bats

 

Matt Loosen, rhp, Cubs: A righthander from Jacksonville, Loosen has very slowly climbed the minor league ladder, spending parts of three seasons in the Florida State League. He had to be demoted back to the FSL in 2013 after a rough start in Double-A, but he pitched well enough to return to Tennessee before the season ended. His second stint in Double-A went much better than the first, as he finished the season with 11 scoreless innings in his final two starts. He also was solid, if unspectacular, in an Arizona Fall League stint.

 

With an 89-94 mph fastball and a pair of erratic but promising breaking balls, Loosen might be served by a move to the bullpen, which would almost assuredly happen if he was picked in the Rule 5 draft.

[rawaction]

Is Marco Hernandez a switch hitter? I don't think I ever knew that.

[Guest]

Is Marco Hernandez a switch hitter? I don't think I ever knew that.

 

Yep.

 

I'm thinking at least one of Hatley, Loosen or Cates will get selected.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If Ha's CF defense is as good as sometimes reported, I could see him being taken.

[rawaction]

I'm guessing Hatley and Ha get taken.

[JeffH]

J.J. Cooper needs a fact checker.

 

Four Cubs who J.J. Cooper thinks could get taken in the Rule 5 Draft:

 

Jae-Hoon Ha, of, Cubs: A former catcher, Ha has taken very well to a move to the outfield. Although he’s an average to tick-above average runner, he plays a very solid center field because he gets good jumps. He has enough arm strength to play right field as well.

 

Ha doesn’t have much power, but at his best the lefthanded hitter can draw some walks and get on base. He doesn’t profile as more than a backup outfielder long-term, but with more than 250 games in Double-A and above, he may be ready to fill that role in 2014, and teams would like his major league minimum salary.

[toonsterwu]

Random thoughts: I really don't have any qualms about the Rule 5 moves. I had some issue with the Flaherty decision a couple years ago because there was an apparent need for an upper level utility player, along with some pop (and that they followed it up with a Jeff Bianchi signing), but they lucked into Valbuena/Cardenas that winter (effectively replacing Flaherty/LeMahieu). To me, Flaherty was a borderline case. I really don't see any issue this year.

 

Ha - Perhaps the most difficult guy to rank in the system in some respects. Here's a super young kid with plus defensive ability in AAA. You still hear folks suggest that there's power in that body/swing (but as someone noted, he made swing adjustments this year to try and fit a top of the order profile). That said, at some point, ARL can only mean so much. He has some starting potential, but he's not a guy you really want in the bigs early-mid next year. If he gets picked and sticks on another team, I think you tip your cap, wish him the best, and move on. Add in that his offensive profile is similar to Szczur and the fact that Szczur's contract has him on the 40 (if Szczur wasn't, I do wonder if Ha gets protected).

 

Hernandez/Amaya - Honestly, if a team wants to pick one of them and put them on the roster all year ... be my guest. I still like both of them enough, but eh.

 

Jokisch - This is the guy that I think could get picked that I might sort of wonder about in a year's time, but then again, it's not like he's got superb stuff to make us HAVE to protect him. He's got a solid enough fastball that it's not hard to imagine a team saying, maybe he can be a 2nd lefty/long man/junk man out of the pen. Still, he's not that much better, if at all, than the lefties ahead of him, so eh.

 

Hatley - I thought he could get picked last year, and I do wonder if he gets picked this year. Power pen arms in the upper levels seem to get looks. That said, he's 26, not exactly consistent on the breaking stuff to really project as a late inning guy (would it surprise me if he got a look at that role at some point in his career? No, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he was on the AAA shuttle for a long time). As one of our final draft and follows, he's been around for awhile and persevered, but ... is there a need to protect him? Nah. You can find similar guys each winter. I do hope that he is back, though.

 

Loosen (and Cates) - I sorta like themm, but ... yeah, nice fastballs, but not neither guy really projects as a starter. In the pen, they are ... Marcus Hatley? I mean, I get Beeler more than I get Loosen (and Beeler being protected was sort of eh for me as well).

 

Longshot thought - I wonder if a team looks at Trey McNutt and wonders if they can fix him. I doubt it, but I wonder. I guess I also mildly wonder if a team looks at Rhee, but neither guy would be one to get bothered by if they get picked.

[Guest]

Totally worth it:

 

@BruceMiles2112: Phillies Will get #Cubs Rule 5 first round pick to settle dispute over Lendy Castillo DL stay in 2012

[Cubswin11]

Totally worth it:

 

@BruceMiles2112: Phillies Will get #Cubs Rule 5 first round pick to settle dispute over Lendy Castillo DL stay in 2012

Josh Hamilton 2.0!!!!

[toonsterwu]

While there weren't any Rule 5 names that I was jumping for (heck ... IIRC the interesting names list on BA, the Cubs guys available seemed as interesting, if not moreso, than most), it is ... pretty shitty to lose that pick over basically 1 day. I can't fault the Phillies - it's their right to pursue it, but boy ... it sucks.

[Guest]

Totally worth it:

 

@BruceMiles2112: Phillies Will get #Cubs Rule 5 first round pick to settle dispute over Lendy Castillo DL stay in 2012

i dont even know what that is