Offseason Rumors

[Cubswin11]

Do the Braves have enough without Sims? I don't know enouh about their system, who are some other guys they could use?

No, they don't. They've got Alberto Cabrera's little brother, but he's a 3rd piece and they've got Christian Bethancourt, a C with a fair amount of hype, but he's never hit. Excellent defensively, he'll have a ML career, but he's probably a .650 OPS type, if he's a starter. Without Sims, who's in A ball, they're just not any sort of fit. Not a great one EVEN with Sims, but you could piece together a deal.

 

From MLBTR:

O'Brien also runs down the Braves needs on the heels of a quiet Winter Meetings, noting that they're optimistic about re-signing Eric O'Flaherty. Atlanta is still pursuing a veteran bench bat -- O'Brien mentions Eric Chavez -- and are still interested in Jeff Samardzija. The Braves may be considered the favorites to land Samardzija at this point, says O'Brien, noting that payroll constraints will likely preclude them from pursuing David Price.

If they are that limited on payroll I'd be cool with taking Uggla back in a Shark trade if it meant getting Heyward/J. Upton. Though #poortomricketts

[seanimal]

If you connect the dots between the various reports and rumors, the Cubs view Samardzija's value over the next 5 years at $6M, $10M, $12M, $13M, $14M in successive seasons or $58M.

 

What should they view him as?

 

were you adding those numbers up or am i missing something?

[Radar3454]

If you connect the dots between the various reports and rumors, the Cubs view Samardzija's value over the next 5 years at $6M, $10M, $12M, $13M, $14M in successive seasons or $58M.

 

What should they view him as?

 

 

I don't know how accurate those #'s are but lets say they are for sake of discussion. You don't offer full value 2 years years prior to FA.

[North]

If you connect the dots between the various reports and rumors, the Cubs view Samardzija's value over the next 5 years at $6M, $10M, $12M, $13M, $14M in successive seasons or $58M.

 

What should they view him as?

 

 

I don't know how accurate those #'s are but lets say they are for sake of discussion. You don't offer full value 2 years years prior to FA.

 

If that truly was the contract being demanded by Samardzija, which it probably isn't, we would be holding the presser for Samardzija today.

 

The reason to offer this is to avoid any potential rise in the cost of free agent players. It rises every year. With inflation, probably more. His price could be much more in two years. And, if the team were to lose him, the availability of players of his caliber is slim to none.

[davell]

He evidently wants a regular 5 year deal, as if he's a FA, while the Cubs want to pay him what he's going to make for two normal arb years and three FA years. Shark wants the full pay of all 5 years, because it's not likely we'll contend for the first 2 and he wants to win. Maybe in a Mooney article from yesterday? Definitely in one of the myriad of Shark articles from then though.

 

If the NTC IS an issue, it wasn't brought up yesterday in any of the articles anyway.

[davell]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

[SouthSideRyan]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

One of them for Shark would be [expletive]. Pound sand AA

[davell]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

One of them for Shark would be [expletive]. Pound sand AA

Would it? Both are top 50 prospects, Sanchez may be top 30. I'd be fine with either, assuming there's another useful piece or two involved.

[Guest]

He evidently wants a regular 5 year deal, as if he's a FA, while the Cubs want to pay him what he's going to make for two normal arb years and three FA years. Shark wants the full pay of all 5 years, because it's not likely we'll contend for the first 2 and he wants to win. Maybe in a Mooney article from yesterday? Definitely in one of the myriad of Shark articles from then though.

 

If the NTC IS an issue, it wasn't brought up yesterday in any of the articles anyway.

I don't blame him except for the NTC. Given his age, his next contract will most likely be the biggest one he will get.

 

If he wouldn't have crapped the bed after his boy got dealt last year he'd probably already have a fat contract.

[SouthSideRyan]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

One of them for Shark would be [expletive]. Pound sand AA

Would it? Both are top 50 prospects, Sanchez may be top 30. I'd be fine with either, assuming there's another useful piece or two involved.

 

Sanchez is going to be a top 30 prospect without ever clearing 2 K/BB above rookie ball?

[Guest]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

would absolutely need both at the very minimum.

[davell]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

One of them for Shark would be [expletive]. Pound sand AA

Would it? Both are top 50 prospects, Sanchez may be top 30. I'd be fine with either, assuming there's another useful piece or two involved.

 

Sanchez is going to be a top 30 prospect without ever clearing 2 K/BB above rookie ball?

Definitely top 50, my guess is he's top 30 on a few of them.

[Guest]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

One of them for Shark would be [expletive]. Pound sand AA

Would it? Both are top 50 prospects, Sanchez may be top 30. I'd be fine with either, assuming there's another useful piece or two involved.

 

Yes it would. TINSTAAPP is a phrase to sell books, but it's based on something very real. Pitching prospects yet to hit AAA are far less certain than their reputations.

[davell]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

One of them for Shark would be [expletive]. Pound sand AA

Would it? Both are top 50 prospects, Sanchez may be top 30. I'd be fine with either, assuming there's another useful piece or two involved.

 

Yes it would. TINSTAAPP is a phrase to sell books, but it's based on something very real. Pitching prospects yet to hit AAA are far less certain than their reputations.

Thats why I said another useful piece or two. Tirado or Norris, along with a guy like Gose, is enough to make me pull the trigger, if Sanchez or Stroman is the headliner. I understand the probabilities of pitching prospects vs. hitting prospects. But while the odds say it takes two top 50 pitching prospects to basically equal the same success rate as a single top 50 hitting prospect, it's yet to carry over into trades and it never will. Because finding TOR pitching is so hard to do. And we need pitching more than anything.

[SouthSideRyan]

If TOR pitching is so hard to find, a guy who's had success in the majors with potential to be a TOR pitcher should probably command quite a bit

[davell]

If TOR pitching is so hard to find, a guy who's had success in the majors with potential to be a TOR pitcher should probably command quite a bit

No doubt. But do other teams look at him that way? Is he a middle of the rotation type? More? I've got no idea myself.

 

It's a tough call as to what to do with him. If the best offer you've got includes Sanchez and a couple of lower level guys that fit in the back third of our top 30, do you trade him? Do you give into giving him a 5/85 deal with a full NTC? Or do you hold on to him and gather more info? If those are the actual options, I'm holding him until I know more. I don't want to see him pitch awful in the first half of 2014 or get hurt though, so it's a balancing act. In the end, if the Jays offered up one of those 2, one of Norris or Tirado, and Gose, I'd take it(assuming its better than the other offers) because of the potential downside of something bad happening. Because I do think there's a better chance of that than of him pitching lights out and making teams up their offers from where they stand currently.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a tough call as to what to do with him. If the best offer you've got includes Sanchez and a couple of lower level guys that fit in the back third of our top 30, do you trade him?

 

Goodness, no. Could you imagine a guy like a Dillon Maples or Shawon Dunston being of any value to another team? That offer is one prospect and lottery tickets.

 

Do you give into giving him a 5/85 deal with a full NTC? Or do you hold on to him and gather more info? If those are the actual options, I'm holding him until I know more. I don't want to see him pitch awful in the first half of 2014 or get hurt though, so it's a balancing act. In the end, if the Jays offered up one of those 2, one of Norris or Tirado, and Gose, I'd take it(assuming its better than the other offers) because of the potential downside of something bad happening. Because I do think there's a better chance of that than of him pitching lights out and making teams up their offers from where they stand currently.

 

Loser talk. You don't operate under "oh no, if the worst case scenario happens we'll miss out on this middling return" I ride it out and ideally this isn't another 96 loss stinkburger next year so Samardzija is actually interested in sticking around. And if it is, then oh well, you're stuck with a good starter for another year. Maybe we'll try in 2015 and it'll be nice to have a good player.

[davell]

I understand your point, I think I'm higher on Norris or Tirado than you may be. I'd have either of them in our top 10 and think both have a solid shot at hitting a top 100 list after they pitch in 2014. I do admire the FO for trying to get as much as they're trying to. It's not the end of the world if he pitches for us in 2014 without a new deal. I just want a resolution.

[Splendid Splinter]

Posted this over at PSD... Basically what you guys are talking about if Cubs only could get 1 of Sanchez/Stroman and can you make it work?

 

Say Cubs get 1 of Sanchez or Stroman for sure (gotta add a 4th piece IMO)... there's still Osuna, Nolin, Norris, Smoral (just throwing it out there although HUGE command issues- HUGE is an understatement now that I think about it), Stilson/possibly Loup? (if they want a RP as the last piece), Tirado, DeJong, Cardona, Yeyfry Del Rosario, Deck McGuire, and Drabek on the pitching side. Now granted... a bunch of these guys are years away or have flaws/injuries, but they have a lot of interesting arms in the system.

 

This still doesn't count positional players like Gose, DJ Davis, AJ Jimenez, Mitch Nay, Andy Burns, Dalton Pompey, and Dwight Smith.

 

Is something like this enough???

 

1. Sanchez or Stroman

2. 1 of Osuna or Nolin or Norris

3. 1 offense piece (Jimenez thru Smith on my list- I imagine Gose or Davis wouldn't be included here)

4. lotto type SP (Tirado/Cardona/Del Rosario/DeJong) or wildcard (Smoral/McGuire/Drabek/Stilson/Loup)

 

Problem with the Blue Jays system is somewhat similar to the Cubs... most of the interesting prospects are AA or below and more than a year away (some are probably 3 years away). Blue Jays "COULD" put together an very interesting package for Shark with just 1 of Sanchez/Stroman IMO, but it would be a very risky package. I think there's enough for it to work, but Cubs are doing it right by asking both of them plus a 3rd piece for Shark and see if AA will pull the trigger.

 

Added the bold part here as I forgot to add that on PSD (edit button is a pain in the ass there for me- once in a blue moon it works). Although my problem is I don't know where I would rank most of these guys in the Cubs system. I feel like #1 becomes Cubs #1 SP prospect, #2 is probably in the 8-12 range, #3 is probably around 15th??, and #4 has a wide range depending on who you get.

[Clem Fandango]

Why couldn't the Cubs kill two birds with one stone and include Rasmus in a deal? They still want a CF'er right? He's only got one more year, so he wouldn't cost a whole lot, and if he has a productive first half he can be flipped for more guys.

[North]

Why couldn't the Cubs kill two birds with one stone and include Rasmus in a deal? They still want a CF'er right? He's only got one more year, so he wouldn't cost a whole lot, and if he has a productive first half he can be flipped for more guys.

 

Acquiring a center fielder to be flipped at the deadline is fine. But, it shouldn't involve a cost-controlled pitcher with an RA/9 potential near 3. Adding in Rasmus with Stroman/Sanchez? I wouldn't mind it. But, Rasmus would have to be a throw in piece, where many people don't view Rasmus as a throw in piece (which he really shouldn't).

[Clem Fandango]

I don't think Rasmus can be had for nothing, obviously the Cubs would need to add in a player or two if they want one of Stroman/Sanchez and Rasmus. I was thinking something along the lines of

 

Samardzija + ?????

for

Stroman + Rasmus + ?????

 

Just don't know who else fits the bill

[A New Era]

I think the Jays could make a good offer with only one of Sanchez or Stroman. I would chose Sanchez, but then the other 3 would have to slot into their top 10. Maybe their 4th, 5th, and 11th best prospect. Something like that.

[Splendid Splinter]

I think the Jays could make a good offer with only one of Sanchez or Stroman. I would chose Sanchez, but then the other 3 would have to slot into their top 10. Maybe their 4th, 5th, and 11th best prospect. Something like that.

 

 

If you went by Sickels 2013 top 20 of the Blue Jays, that's Sanchez/Nolin (4th)/DJ Davis (5th)/Tirado (11th). It's basically what I had in my last post so we have the same idea.

[treebird]

Why couldn't the Cubs kill two birds with one stone and include Rasmus in a deal? They still want a CF'er right? He's only got one more year, so he wouldn't cost a whole lot, and if he has a productive first half he can be flipped for more guys.

 

the new market inefficiency is being that guy who bought something on ebay for a dollar and sold it for two and then bought something for two and sold it for three and so on until he had a million bucks