Offseason Rumors

[EhDubya]

They have been in win-now mode and its not working.

 

It sure as hell worked really nicely for a while there.

 

9 straight winning seasons. They went from an organization with a fan base that did not give a crap about them, to an attendance juggernaut. They made it to the LCS three straight years and the WS two years in a row. It absolutely worked.

 

Even in a bad season they had 3 million attendance and you can't walk 5 feet in that market without somebody wearing Phillies gear. Granted, it's a little heavy on the middle aged chubby women in love with Chase Utley side, but that was never the case before.

 

 

It failed because they didn't get any 1st draft picks during those 9 years.

 

The only way I see the Phils contending for WS in the next 2 years is clearly orchestrating many 3 team trades. Why don't you start working on that for them.

[CubColtPacer]

I would argue that the Phillies didn't go into hyper win now mode until Amaro took over. At the time, the Phillies had just won the World Series with a young roster, plenty of talent in the farm system, and a rapidly expanding payroll (the 2008 WS team had a 98 million dollar payroll, by 2011 it was already at 165 million). Out of any team in baseball, they were the one who had the ability to go on a long run of dominance.

 

Instead, they only had 3 more years of great teams with one WS appearance before falling apart. They managed to squander every advantage they had in pursuit of a marginal win here or there. It wasn't even injuries that derailed them. They managed to derail themselves through horrific mismanagement.

 

So if you want to be the Phillies during the 2000's, I'm completely on board. The Amaro strategy IMO even though exciting hurt them tons more than it ever helped.

[XZero771679666304]

I would argue that the Phillies didn't go into hyper win now mode until Amaro took over. At the time, the Phillies had just won the World Series with a young roster, plenty of talent in the farm system, and a rapidly expanding payroll (the 2008 WS team had a 98 million dollar payroll, by 2011 it was already at 165 million). Out of any team in baseball, they were the one who had the ability to go on a long run of dominance.

 

Instead, they only had 3 more years of great teams with one WS appearance before falling apart. They managed to squander every advantage they had in pursuit of a marginal win here or there. It wasn't even injuries that derailed them. They managed to derail themselves through horrific mismanagement.

 

So if you want to be the Phillies during the 2000's, I'm completely on board. The Amaro strategy IMO even though exciting hurt them tons more than it ever helped.

 

This is why I said I'd fire him. If you look only at the W/L over his tenure, you'd say that he maintained a winning team, and was probably doing a good job. But if you look at where the club was when he took over, the resources he was given and how he allocated them, and then the results (and where the team is today), you can see he pretty clearly screwed the pooch.

[Guest]

Hadn't double checked Lee's performance, he's been the exception to the rule with those types of deals.

 

What rule? 5 year deals for guys over 30?

 

More specifically, that 5 year, 9 figure deals for 32 year old pitchers are a bad idea.

[Backtobanks]

They have been in win-now mode and its not working.

 

It sure as hell worked really nicely for a while there.

 

9 straight winning seasons. They went from an organization with a fan base that did not give a crap about them, to an attendance juggernaut. They made it to the LCS three straight years and the WS two years in a row. It absolutely worked.

 

Even in a bad season they had 3 million attendance and you can't walk 5 feet in that market without somebody wearing Phillies gear. Granted, it's a little heavy on the middle aged chubby women in love with Chase Utley side, but that was never the case before.

 

 

It failed because they didn't get any 1st draft picks during those 9 years.

 

The only way I see the Phils contending for WS in the next 2 years is clearly orchestrating many 3 team trades. Why don't you start working on that for them.

 

I never said that the Phils will be contending for the WS in the next 2 years, but the Cubs won't be either.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hadn't double checked Lee's performance, he's been the exception to the rule with those types of deals.

 

What rule? 5 year deals for guys over 30?

 

More specifically, that 5 year, 9 figure deals for 32 year old pitchers are a bad idea.

 

It would be nice to avoid committing to such things if you don't have to, but there are lot worse ideas out there in baseball.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Phillies spending undoubtedly "worked". They're also almost certainly screwed for a couple years. It's not terribly applicable to the Cubs though, because the Phillies are screwed because they paid a ton of money to guys who were really not all that good(Howard, Papelbon) or to pitchers who were easily beyond 30 when they got extended(Lee, Halladay). Extending Price or Scherzer is in between Hamels(clearly good) and Lee/Halladay(clearly bad) on the deal spectrum, plus it's one player compared to nearly a half dozen huge dollar deals the Phillies did.

 

Right the issue isn't that the Phillies spent money, it's that they let Amaro spend it.

[EhDubya]

 

Even in a bad season they had 3 million attendance and you can't walk 5 feet in that market without somebody wearing Phillies gear. Granted, it's a little heavy on the middle aged chubby women in love with Chase Utley side, but that was never the case before.

 

Not these days. Philly fans are fickle as everyone knows. They are a lost group right now, with now decent pro sports team. Everyone down there likes to call Amaro "Ruin Tomorrow".

[dcvalpo]

 

Even in a bad season they had 3 million attendance and you can't walk 5 feet in that market without somebody wearing Phillies gear. Granted, it's a little heavy on the middle aged chubby women in love with Chase Utley side, but that was never the case before.

 

Not these days. Philly fans are fickle as everyone knows. They are a lost group right now, with now decent pro sports team. Everyone down there likes to call Amaro "Ruin Tomorrow".

 

Yes, these days. They were 8th in the league in attendance at over 3 mil. Gooney is absolutely right.

[Guest]

Cubs with 4th consecutive losing season, attendance dips 250k = "Cubs continue to hemorrhage fans and millions"

 

Phillies with 1st losing season since y2k, attendance dips 500k = "Phillies retain stranglehold on their market despite down year"

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just from the general buzz from other teams about who they might be interested and how much money is out there to be spent, I continue to believe that he most likely scenario is that the Cubs do all their due diligence and work very hard to pursue a few key, high-priced pieces, only to be blown out of the water on the actual bidding.

[davell]

Just from the general buzz from other teams about who they might be interested and how much money is out there to be spent, I continue to believe that he most likely scenario is that the Cubs do all their due diligence and work very hard to pursue a few key, high-priced pieces, only to be blown out of the water on the actual bidding.

I can see Tanaka being extremely problematic. A desperate Yankee team, Dodgers involved, Rangers with plenty of success with Darvish being in as well.....I could see us putting a 40ish mill bid out that gets blown away. If someone kills us on Ellsbury though, I don't care one bit.

[davell]

Cheap route offseason I'm prepared for: Add Corey Hart and Chris Young to OF, re-sign Scott Baker, add Josh Johnson, and one of O'Flaherty or Boone Logan. Trade Shark to Nats for package including Giolito and Brian Goodwin. Head into season once again with "if everything goes right, then maybe" attitude.

[Guest]

Cheap route offseason I'm prepared for: Add Corey Hart and Chris Young to OF, re-sign Scott Baker, add Josh Johnson, and one of O'Flaherty or Boone Logan. Trade Shark to Nats for package including Giolito and Brian Goodwin. Head into season once again with "if everything goes right, then maybe" attitude.

 

Better get a hell of a lot more than that if they're trading Samardzija.

[jersey cubs fan]

Cubs with 4th consecutive losing season, attendance dips 250k = "Cubs continue to hemorrhage fans and millions"

 

Phillies with 1st losing season since y2k, attendance dips 500k = "Phillies retain stranglehold on their market despite down year"

Not sure why you felt compelled to make that idiotic statement but you know nothing about Philly market. The phillies were nothing ten years ago. They were the white sox. Nobody cared. I went to cubs games every year and it was an easy cheap ticket. That era is gone. They won a generation of fans to the cause with the stadium/sustained success/championships. It's been a remarkable business success.

[Guest]

No one said that Philly lost 100% of any gains, you goof. But at the same time you can't hand-wave away ~25 million in revenue they lost in attendance this year, especially when the trend line is pretty clear that the fans will come if they win and apparently disappear if they lose. If/when they have another losing season next year, are you certain they'll draw 3 million again?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cheap route offseason I'm prepared for: Add Corey Hart and Chris Young to OF, re-sign Scott Baker, add Josh Johnson, and one of O'Flaherty or Boone Logan. Trade Shark to Nats for package including Giolito and Brian Goodwin. Head into season once again with "if everything goes right, then maybe" attitude.

 

Better get a hell of a lot more than that if they're trading Samardzija.

 

The offseason seems like an awful time to trade Samardzija. Besides the options that won't cost teams anything but money, there's Price available as well.

[davell]

That's true. But 2 years of a relatively cheap Samardzija would garner quite a bit of interest. Especially considering how weak the FA pitching class is, when most teams are looking for pitching. I'm fine if we extend him or trade him. I could see the Nats, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Blue Jays, Indians, A's, Mariners, Phillies, and Padres all seeing him as a target.

[SouthSideRyan]

Cheap route offseason I'm prepared for: Add Corey Hart and Chris Young to OF, re-sign Scott Baker, add Josh Johnson, and one of O'Flaherty or Boone Logan. Trade Shark to Nats for package including Giolito and Brian Goodwin. Head into season once again with "if everything goes right, then maybe" attitude.

 

"If everything goes right then maybe we'll win 78 games?"

[SouthSideRyan]

Cheap route offseason I'm prepared for: Add Corey Hart and Chris Young to OF, re-sign Scott Baker, add Josh Johnson, and one of O'Flaherty or Boone Logan. Trade Shark to Nats for package including Giolito and Brian Goodwin. Head into season once again with "if everything goes right, then maybe" attitude.

 

Better get a hell of a lot more than that if they're trading Samardzija.

 

The offseason seems like an awful time to trade Samardzija. Besides the options that won't cost teams anything but money, there's Price available as well.

 

It's more of a salary dump than anything else.

[davell]

Cheap route offseason I'm prepared for: Add Corey Hart and Chris Young to OF, re-sign Scott Baker, add Josh Johnson, and one of O'Flaherty or Boone Logan. Trade Shark to Nats for package including Giolito and Brian Goodwin. Head into season once again with "if everything goes right, then maybe" attitude.

 

"If everything goes right then maybe we'll win 78 games?"

Ah, you know what I mean. Keeps you close enough, Javy and Bryant come up, make an addition via trade.,,,,,And miss the playoffs by 10. Honestly though, with the variance stuff, I can see cheap additions like I mentioned keep us in contention if Rizzo and Castro come through and the pitching stays healthy.

[Sammy Sofa]

That's true. But 2 years of a relatively cheap Samardzija would garner quite a bit of interest.

 

So would Castro, Rizzo and Castillo.

 

Not that I am opposed to trading any of them in the right deal, but when you set the criteria like that you can make the case for trading anyone.

[davell]

I really wanted a Shark extension last offseason. I'm not nearly as confident he turns into a true frontline starter at this point. Nor do I see him giving us any sort of a break on his contract. The rest of that group is either locked up or still have plenty of time to be. Maybe the actual names I threw out aren't so appealing(Giolito and Goodwin) but its still a top 50ish and a top 100ish type. That said, I'll be more specific- For me to deal Shark over the offseason, give me a top 50 and a top 100 type both that are ready for AA. (Change Giolito out for AJ Cole in that exact package), along with a guy that's comparable to Jeimer Candelario from our system and a guy that compares to Duane Underwood or Dillon Maples. If we can't find that type of return, keep him and re-assess at the deadline, if we're out of contention. If its too much that I'm asking for? Then hold onto him until someone meets the price and keep trying to extend him until its totally apparent we just can't.

[Sammy Sofa]

Too much? That doesn't seem like enough.

[davell]

Too much? That doesn't seem like enough.

I'm trying to be realistic. I know an actual package likely has a major leaguer or two in it as well. 2 top 50's? I'd be pretty surprised if someone gave that up myself.