Plan the Offseason

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Since we're already getting the first bit of rumors about what moves will be made, let's have a thread about the acquisitions you hope/expect/wish to see this offseason. If nothing else it's fun, and this thread gives a place for it so as not to confuse with actual moves/rumors. Make it what you think Theo/Jed will do, what you'd do if you were them, consider financial restrictions or ignore them, you make the call. I'll do mine to start, it is excessively long and detailed/rambling for a thing that won't actually happen, proceed at your own risk.

 

I think the Front Office has the flexibility to have a payroll similar to last year's, hovering around 100 million on opening day. The good news is that depending on the exact moves, it wouldn't necessary need to be that high, or there's ways to cut it without materially damaging the team. Here's the general outline:

 

- Add a very good SP

- Add a star OF

- Backfill the traded MLB player

- Make the roster fit together

 

Add a very good SP - Right now depth is not an issue in the rotation. Samardzija, Wood, Jackson, Arrieta, Villanueva, Rusin, Grimm, and Hendricks give the team an abundance of options that can be relied on to fill out the back of a rotation, where the gains need to be is in the quality. This means that they shouldn't be looking for this year's Feldman or Maholm to flip(Villanueva could be that guy after all if you really want to), they need a guy who clearly slots above the fray and alongside Shark/Wood/Jackson.

 

Plan A - Sign Masahiro Tanaka - Is Tanaka the youngest major free agent ever? The line gets blurry with international players I guess, but it serves to illustrate that players of his age that have proven what he has come available for only money pretty much never. If they can do nothing else this offseason, he needs to be the guy

Plan B - There is no Plan B - If you push me then yes, they could try to fish for guys like Johnson or Lincecum in the hopes of getting a Liriano-esque resurgence, but that still comes at a decent pricetag and with far more concerns than I have about Tanaka. As a result, I'm just going to assume that the total outlay for Tanaka is 6/150. It serves to be very sure that he is a Cub without needing to worry about overshooting that estimate in budgeting for later moves. With any luck it's a good bit less than that and there's more money available

 

Add a star OF - Along with SP, the outfield is the biggest opportunity to make some big gains. The good news here is that there's flexibility. If you believe in Lake, you can have him play any OF position on the hope he continues to develop and play like a 3+ win player. Schierholtz is a solid LH OF bat to have around. Sweeney and/or Bogusevic provide the opportunity for league averagish OF play in a couple positions. So you're not pigeonholed into only getting an OF of a certain position.

 

Plan A - Trade for Giancarlo Stanton - With Loria firing Beinfest and taking more control over the organization, it seems even more likely that Stanton becomes available than it seemed last year when we said "he'll get dealt next offseason". I don't share the doubts about his injuries or his ability to improve on his past performance, he'll only be 24 next year and he'd be a middle of the order monster for years to come. As a result, the price is steep: Lake, Alcantara, Almora, and Vogelbach. That's a lot of bats, and hopefully it wouldn't require half the top 6-7 prospects plus Lake, but like Tanaka let's err on the other side and be pleasantly surprised if it's less.

Plan B - Trade for CarGo - His contract could complicate later moves, and while he's still prime age he's not 24 like Stanton. But if they are willing to trade him for as little as has been intimated by Cubs "insiders", then it might be worth the tradeoff. A deal here looks something like Russell, Alcantara, Vogelbach, and Grimm

Plan C -Sign a FA - Choo and Ellsbury are on the market if other options break down. Given the circumstances this is easily the worst option unless you've already lost Tanaka because the Dodgers bid 200 million to let him star for Albuquerque.

 

Backfill the traded MLB player - This is where things get a bit trickier since the move can depend on who goes out in other moves.

 

Peter Bourjos - If Lake is traded, the only real CF option around is Sweeney, and he's not even under contract(nor am I a huge fan of him as a full-time CF). With Trout, Hamilton, Trumbo, and Pujols as mainstays, the Angels have too many OFs, and Bourjos is a logical trade candidate since he's coming off a wrist injury and he gets a ton of his value from being an elite defensive CF(which he's not going to do in LA). Gauging LA's needs is a bit tricky with their obvious need to compete now but their need to not spend a ton to avoid getting hammered by the luxury tax. Let's say Villanueva and Russell for Bourjos, accepting that this could be way off in how LA values him.

Michael Saunders - Another situation that's admittedly hard to read, Saunders is an averagish CF who could be more than that in LF, but he doesn't seem to be part of Seattle's core and may be available this offseason. I won't speculate on a potential package

Eric O'Flaherty - If Russell gets sent off, while there are options around, the team could use a more reliable option in the 7th or as a shutdown LHP. O'Flaherty shouldn't get huge dollars having just come back from TJS this August, but he's shown himself healthy and was a steady reliever for years before having TJS. Again erring on the high side, say he gets 2/10 to be sure he's yours, hopefully less.

Royals relievers - The Royals are a favorite trading partner this offseason because their needs seem to match up well. If dollars become a concern, upgrading the bullpen in a payroll neutral or better move would seem to be possible. On the high end, the Royals probably don't want to pay Hochevar 5 million to be a reliever given their depth, so swapping him for a Villanueva or Schierholtz might be worth it depending on other moves. If they love Hochevar or finances dictate the move dumps payroll, they have a stable of good relief arms, Kelvin Herrera is my favorite target.

 

Make the roster fit together - This is even hazier now that we're another degree of ambiguity away. To give some clarity, let's pick out the moves I hope would happen, Tanaka, Stanton, Bourjos, and Schierholtz for Herrera. At this point the only other move to try and fit in is bringing back Sweeney, 2 years 6 million(2 mil this year, 4 mil next). I'm putting him in LF which isn't ideal, but he should be fine there defensively, and Bourjos' incredible range will undoubtedly make that an even easier transition. He also provides some CF cover if Bourjos has any lingering health concerns at the start of the year. I sign the best backup catcher I can for a million bucks and do the same for a RH platoon OF bat. The end result is a roster like this:

 

v. RHP/LHP (if different)

Sweeney/Bourjos

Castro

Rizzo

Stanton

Valbuena/Castillo

Castillo/Olt

Bourjos/Sweeney

Barney

 

Samardzija/Wood/Tanaka/Jackson/Arrieta

 

Strop/Parker/Herrera/Rusin/3 best of the RP calvary

 

FA C/Olt/Watkins/Bogusevic/FA RH OF

 

If Rizzo and Castro combine for 2012-level production, that team is a borderline playoff team. The payroll is right at 90 million, hopefully even less considering how aggressive our Tanaka number is. Baez has a spot at 2B warmed up for him if he knocks the door down, which also hedges against failure from Olt/Barney. Same goes for next year in LF with Bryant and Sweeney. After this year Soriano's money can go to helping extend arbitration eligibles(Shark/Stanton/Wood) or adding a LF/SP of importance.

 

If you made it through that, congratulations and I'm sorry. Let's hear yours now.

[davell]

TT, just curious, how are you figuring 6/150 on Tanaka, in terms of posting versus salary? Also, is this yours or what you kind of suspect the FO to do? Great outlook, either way. I like it a lot.

[Guest]

It's what I'd do, given the realities of the offseason(e.g. we can't spend 150 million, the Angels aren't going to trade Mike Trout, etc), so also what I hope they'd do. I'm operating under the assumption that for the purposes of budgeting, that the posting fee can be amortized. For a specific breakdown, something like 3:2 posting fee to salary would seem to fit, so at the highest end, a 90 million posting fee and then 6/60 for the contract?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Plan A - Sign Masahiro Tanaka[/b] - Is Tanaka the youngest major free agent ever? The line gets blurry with international players I guess, but it serves to illustrate that players of his age that have proven what he has come available for only money pretty much never.

 

This is such a small part of your really great post, but it actually got me thinking. A-Rod was 25 when he signed with Texas in January 2001, and Tanaka will be 25 in November. You're right. It's not often a player that good and that young is free to sign anywhere.

 

Just imagine if Trout and Harper don't sign extensions. We will be seeing the same thing in a few years.

[MWV]

Plan A - Trade for Giancarlo Stanton

 

[Tryptamine]

I'll start off by saying this is what I want to see, not what I expect.

 

1B: Rizzo

2B: Kendrick(Angels get salary relief and Lake)

SS: Castro

3B: Baez

C: Castillo

RF: Schierholtz(Bryant takes over in 2015)

CF: Cargo (Vogelbach,Alcantara,Pierce)

LF: Beltran(2/24)

 

SP: Samardzija/Tanaka(40+50/5)/Wood/Edwin/Arrieta

RP: O'Flaherty(1/4)/Strop/Russell/Parker/Lim/Rosscup/Madson(1/3)

 

Line up

1) Kendrick

2)Castro

3)Cargo

4)Rizzo

5)Beltran

6)Baez

7)Schierholtz

8) Castillo

 

My only concern with the team is that Howie/Castro and Cargo aren't going to take a ton of walks and are very reliant on batting average. On the plus side, there is a ton of powere here and the bullpen has a very real chance of being excellent.

[SouthSideRyan]

Tryp, Should I assume you have a placeholder at 3B until Baez is ready?

[Tryptamine]

Tryp, Should I assume you have a placeholder at 3B until Baez is ready?

 

Yeah, Valbuena would be there until Baez passes super 2 and gets the extra year.

[Guest]

Alright, I've done pieces of this before, but I'll put it all together here.

 

As the team currently stands, I do not think there is need for a lot of different pieces. As TT points out, the biggest needs are at the top end of the rotation and in the OF. I think the team will also target a left handed bat for the OF to balance the lineup with Bryant and Baez on the way.

 

I'll also make the assumption that payroll will be targeted around $100M, with about $75M locked up in the current player base.

 

First Move: Tanaka

 

To me, this is the single biggest, absolute must have this offseason. I'd go big on the bid and then lock him up. Something along the lines of $60M on the bid, then $50/5 on the contract. Backload the contract along the lines of 5, 7, 10, 13, 15 Add on a club option for the sixth year at $18M.

 

Second Move: CarGo

 

Why not Stanton? A few reasons. 1) He'll be far more expensive in the player package it would take to acquire him. 2) I think the Cubs preference would be an impact lefty bat. 3) I think Stanton fits too similar a profile to Baez + Bryant for the front office to give up the pieces it would take to acquire him. 4) Well, mainly #1.

 

I'm not envisioning a huge package going back to Colorado based on the grumblings in the media. But I'll be pretty generous here and say that we send something along the lines of Alcantara, Vogelbach, Pierce Johnson.

 

Backup C

 

We'll also need a backup C. Try to get Navarro back or get the next best one on the market.

 

----------------

 

If those were the only two moves this offseason, I'd be ecstatic heading into next year. Adding CarGo to the offense makes a big difference. I would hold fast on making changes to the infield with the hopes that Baez pushes his way into the lineup in May/June. Adding Tanaka to the rotation gives it a lot more strength at the top. I'm very happy with the bullpen options at this point, as well, and I'd be unwilling to invest additional money there.

 

Those moves would put us around $90M payroll.

 

We'd have a lineup in the June timeframe of:

 

OF Sweeney

SS Castro

OF CarGo

2B Baez

1B Rizzo

OF Schierholtz/Lake

C Castillo/Navarro/Other

3B Valbuena/Olt/Random Veteran Guy

 

SP Tanaka

SP Samardzija

SP Wood

SP Jackson

SP Cast of thousands

 

The obvious remaining upgrades in that lineup would be a true CF in place of Sweeney and third base. As mentioned earlier, I wouldn't want anyone on a deal longer than one year at 3B. I actually think Villanueva could play there the second half of the year if we're not getting production from a Valbuena/Olt platoon. I'm pretty confident that Bryant will be there by May of 2015.

 

That means that the remaining place to invest would be CF. At a rational price / contract duration, Ellsbury would make an inordinate amount of sense. He'd provide great defense in CF and set the table for the bashers in the lineup. Between him, CarGo, Baez and Castro, the Cubs would have the most team speed in my 46 year lifetime. They'd be able to score runs in a lot of different ways. It would help to guarantee balance in the lineup moving forward.

 

I'd have Theo/Hoyer put on a full court press based on their relationship with Ellsbury. If I could get him on a contract of around 5/$80M, I'd sign him. The deal would have to be backloaded to make it work this year. A couple of pieces would have to be moved to get back to the $100M figure (say...Carlos Villanueva and Schierholtz).

 

If I can't get him to take the deal, I sit back content with the previous moves. However, if he takes it, then the lineup becomes the following:

 

CF Ellsbury

SS Castro

LF CarGo

2B Baez

1B Rizzo

RF Sweeney/Lake

C Castillo/Navarro/Other

3B Valbuena/Olt/Random Veteran Guy

 

If (big if) we get expected growth from Castro, Rizzo & Castillo and a strong rookie campaign from Baez, that team contends in 2014 and is killer when Bryant takes over 3B in 2015 (and hopefully Soler in RF).

 

Payroll would come in right around $100M in 2014. It would scale up pretty quickly as the Rizzo/Castro deals mature and the backended deals for CarGo, Ellsbury and Tanaka kick in.

 

The team would be pretty well set for the future. In the 2014/15 offseason, we'd really just need to either lock up Shark or get another pitcher to bolster the top of the rotation.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's what I'd do, given the realities of the offseason(e.g. we can't spend 150 million, the Angels aren't going to trade Mike Trout, etc), so also what I hope they'd do. I'm operating under the assumption that for the purposes of budgeting, that the posting fee can be amortized. For a specific breakdown, something like 3:2 posting fee to salary would seem to fit, so at the highest end, a 90 million posting fee and then 6/60 for the contract?

 

Pardon my ignorance, but I assumed the posting fee went in a lump sum to the team posting the player. I'm not real optimistic about Tanaka based on this, so I'd love for you to tell me otherwise.

[Guest]

It's what I'd do, given the realities of the offseason(e.g. we can't spend 150 million, the Angels aren't going to trade Mike Trout, etc), so also what I hope they'd do. I'm operating under the assumption that for the purposes of budgeting, that the posting fee can be amortized. For a specific breakdown, something like 3:2 posting fee to salary would seem to fit, so at the highest end, a 90 million posting fee and then 6/60 for the contract?

 

Pardon my ignorance, but I assumed the posting fee went in a lump sum to the team posting the player. I'm not real optimistic about Tanaka based on this, so I'd love for you to tell me otherwise.

 

 

IIRC, it is a lump sum due 30 days(?) after the posting fee is accepted. That might make an outlandish posting fee like I mentioned more difficult, but within the expected range I think there's enough flexibility to make it possible to manipulate the accounting to make sure it fits in with the cash flows.

[Tyrant]

I would be thrilled to get CarGo for the packages tossed out by everyone. Though it would be a little sad to watch Vogelbach mash in Coors like I expect he would.

[davell]

Here's how I look at the posting fee, if our payroll is static: Looking at MLBTR'S arb expectations, we'll be around 70 mill after raises. We went into last year at 106. 36 mill of play area- give 10 to CarGo and 6 to Tanaka as a 1st year salary. Leaves us 20 mill. Add in the 2 mill we'll save from our draft budget by picking 4th instead of 2nd and let's figure they'll trade the IFA space, while last year we spent a bit over 10 mill counting penalties. So, 32 mill, minus a backup C, leaves 30. Need to take money from elsewhere to bid more if baseball ops DID in fact, spend entire budget last year.

[Tryptamine]

Here's how I look at the posting fee, if our payroll is static: Looking at MLBTR'S arb expectations, we'll be around 70 mill after raises. We went into last year at 106. 36 mill of play area- give 10 to CarGo and 6 to Tanaka as a 1st year salary. Leaves us 20 mill. Add in the 2 mill we'll save from our draft budget by picking 4th instead of 2nd and let's figure they'll trade the IFA space, while last year we spent a bit over 10 mill counting penalties. So, 32 mill, minus a backup C, leaves 30. Need to take money from elsewhere to bid more if baseball ops DID in fact, spend entire budget last year.

 

Are you figuring in the league wide TV money that's supposed to be in the area of 20-25M per team?

[Guest]

Here's how I look at the posting fee, if our payroll is static: Looking at MLBTR'S arb expectations, we'll be around 70 mill after raises. We went into last year at 106. 36 mill of play area- give 10 to CarGo and 6 to Tanaka as a 1st year salary. Leaves us 20 mill. Add in the 2 mill we'll save from our draft budget by picking 4th instead of 2nd and let's figure they'll trade the IFA space, while last year we spent a bit over 10 mill counting penalties. So, 32 mill, minus a backup C, leaves 30. Need to take money from elsewhere to bid more if baseball ops DID in fact, spend entire budget last year.

 

Are you figuring in the league wide TV money that's supposed to be in the area of 20-25M per team?

 

Probably offset by our drop in revenue.

[Tryptamine]

Here's how I look at the posting fee, if our payroll is static: Looking at MLBTR'S arb expectations, we'll be around 70 mill after raises. We went into last year at 106. 36 mill of play area- give 10 to CarGo and 6 to Tanaka as a 1st year salary. Leaves us 20 mill. Add in the 2 mill we'll save from our draft budget by picking 4th instead of 2nd and let's figure they'll trade the IFA space, while last year we spent a bit over 10 mill counting penalties. So, 32 mill, minus a backup C, leaves 30. Need to take money from elsewhere to bid more if baseball ops DID in fact, spend entire budget last year.

 

Are you figuring in the league wide TV money that's supposed to be in the area of 20-25M per team?

 

Probably offset by our drop in revenue.

 

Bring in Cargo and Tanaka and I'm guessing a lot of that lost revenue comes back.

[BeerHere]

Why is everyone so sure that Colorado will trade Cargo?

[Guest]

Why is everyone so sure that Colorado will trade Cargo?

 

Because that's what the word is, allegedly.

 

It's not just some fantasy GM pure speculation.

[Guest]

Let me start by saying I don't read Bleed Cubbie Blue, but this was retweeted by someone and seems relevant:

 

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2013/9/27/4778182/why-we-should-be-excited-about-the-cubs-payroll-flexibility

[davell]

Here's how I look at the posting fee, if our payroll is static: Looking at MLBTR'S arb expectations, we'll be around 70 mill after raises. We went into last year at 106. 36 mill of play area- give 10 to CarGo and 6 to Tanaka as a 1st year salary. Leaves us 20 mill. Add in the 2 mill we'll save from our draft budget by picking 4th instead of 2nd and let's figure they'll trade the IFA space, while last year we spent a bit over 10 mill counting penalties. So, 32 mill, minus a backup C, leaves 30. Need to take money from elsewhere to bid more if baseball ops DID in fact, spend entire budget last year.

 

Are you figuring in the league wide TV money that's supposed to be in the area of 20-25M per team?

 

Probably offset by our drop in revenue.

 

Bring in Cargo and Tanaka and I'm guessing a lot of that lost revenue comes back.

Doesn't matter in some ways. We can't show an operating loss at any point during a calendar year. Yes, we could up the payroll to 130 mill and be just fine with plenty of profitability at the end of the year- evidently we're just locked into a deal that keeps it from working that way.

[WrigleyField 22]

Here's how I look at the posting fee, if our payroll is static: Looking at MLBTR'S arb expectations, we'll be around 70 mill after raises. We went into last year at 106. 36 mill of play area- give 10 to CarGo and 6 to Tanaka as a 1st year salary. Leaves us 20 mill. Add in the 2 mill we'll save from our draft budget by picking 4th instead of 2nd and let's figure they'll trade the IFA space, while last year we spent a bit over 10 mill counting penalties. So, 32 mill, minus a backup C, leaves 30. Need to take money from elsewhere to bid more if baseball ops DID in fact, spend entire budget last year.

 

Are you figuring in the league wide TV money that's supposed to be in the area of 20-25M per team?

 

Probably offset by our drop in revenue.

 

Bring in Cargo and Tanaka and I'm guessing a lot of that lost revenue comes back.

Doesn't matter in some ways. We can't show an operating loss at any point during a calendar year. Yes, we could up the payroll to 130 mill and be just fine with plenty of profitability at the end of the year- evidently we're just locked into a deal that keeps it from working that way.

It really comes down to whether there is a way amortize the cost or not. There was a fairly large signing bonus given to Jackson last year, though will pale in comparison to a posting fee. I wonder how that was handled on the books.

[Cubswin11]

Okay here it goes.

 

- Trade Schierholtz, Alcantara, Vogelbach, Arrieta for Carlos Gonzalez and 1 of Tyler Anderson or Tyler Matzek

- Sign Nelson Cruz to a 2 year $15-18m contract

- Sign Tanaka no idea what it will take but a 5-6 year $100m +/- contract seems reasonable (when combining posting+contract)

- Sign 1 of Josh Johnson (1 year contract), Jason Hammel or Scott Kazmir (both on 2 year Villanueva type contracts)

- Sign Youkilis on a 1 year incentive laden deal

- Bring in a guy or two via Rule 5, waiver claims, ST invites that could be a bullpen arm or utility player

- Re-sign Sweeney to a 2 year $5-6m contract

 

Lineup (since it's all hypotheticals here lets assume Castro and Rizzo are good)

 

Do a platoon with Sweeney/Lake in RF, and a pseudo 3-way platoon with Youkilis, Valbuena, Barney between 3B/2B

 

Castro SS

Cargo CF

Cruz LF

Rizzo 1B

Youkilis/Valbuena 3B

Sweeney/Lake RF

Castillo C

Valbuena/Barney 2B

 

Rotation

 

Samardzija

Tanaka

Wood

Jackson

Johnson/Hammel/Kazmir

 

Bullpen

 

Strop/Parker/Bard/Villanueva/1 of Grimm/Cabrera/Ramirez/best of ST/ 2 of Russell/Rusin/Rosscup

 

Bench

 

FA C, FA RH OF, 1 of Olt/Gamel/Vitters/Watkins/etc.

 

That could be a playoff team, I don't think it's any worse than what the Indians, Pirates, Rangers, or Rays put out there this year if everything were to mostly go right.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Cubswin11

[Sammys Boombox]

I know some teams (pretty sure the Yankees) pay their players year-round and other teams pay their players just during the season (I think most teams). Any idea how the Cubs handle this?

[sneakypower]

Plan A - Trade for Giancarlo Stanton - With Loria firing Beinfest and taking more control over the organization, it seems even more likely that Stanton becomes available than it seemed last year when we said "he'll get dealt next offseason". I don't share the doubts about his injuries or his ability to improve on his past performance, he'll only be 24 next year and he'd be a middle of the order monster for years to come. As a result, the price is steep: Lake, Alcantara, Almora, and Vogelbach. That's a lot of bats, and hopefully it wouldn't require half the top 6-7 prospects plus Lake, but like Tanaka let's err on the other side and be pleasantly surprised if it's less.

i'm low on our chances of making a Stanton deal work, because i don't think they have much desire for kids in the OF; with Yelich, Marisnick, Ozuna already penciled in the OF for a while, Almora/Soler/Lake might not be super enticing

 

i can see it requiring us to part with Castillo, which i guess is fine if we're eager to throw $75M at McCann, but who knows

[Cubswin11]

Plan A - Trade for Giancarlo Stanton - With Loria firing Beinfest and taking more control over the organization, it seems even more likely that Stanton becomes available than it seemed last year when we said "he'll get dealt next offseason". I don't share the doubts about his injuries or his ability to improve on his past performance, he'll only be 24 next year and he'd be a middle of the order monster for years to come. As a result, the price is steep: Lake, Alcantara, Almora, and Vogelbach. That's a lot of bats, and hopefully it wouldn't require half the top 6-7 prospects plus Lake, but like Tanaka let's err on the other side and be pleasantly surprised if it's less.

i'm low on our chances of making a Stanton deal work, because i don't think they have much desire for kids in the OF; with Yelich, Marisnick, Ozuna already penciled in the OF for a while, Almora/Soler/Lake might not be super enticing

 

i can see it requiring us to part with Castillo, which i guess is fine if we're eager to throw $75M at McCann, but who knows

I agree with this and if I'm the Marlins I wouldn't budge off of Baez needing to be in the deal for him since, as you mentioned, Soler/Almora likely have a somewhat diminished valued to them given their roster than what other teams value them at.