Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[Guest]

Conflicting reports, as we 've come to expect. Press conference in 45 minutes though.

 

On Christmas Day (in Japan)? Weird.

 

Ben Badler had been reporting for a week that Rakuten would meet with tanaka and decide on Christmas day (in Japan) for about a week. Before today, he had been in Tokyo for media and promotional reasons.

[A New Era]

I say we sign Shark long term to show Tanaka we are ready to compete.

[CubsWin]

I say we sign Shark long term to show Tanaka we are ready to compete.

I think the Cubs would have to do a lot more than that to show him that they're ready to compete, but it sure wouldn't hurt. He's no dummy. He and his agent know that the Cubs are well guided and on the rise. Who knows whether that will matter. I'm sure the Cubs will make him feel wanted. I hope they have the money and the willingness to spend it. At this point, no one here knows what the deciding factor will be.

[Backtobanks]

I say we sign Shark long term to show Tanaka we are ready to compete.

I think the Cubs would have to do a lot more than that to show him that they're ready to compete, but it sure wouldn't hurt. He's no dummy. He and his agent know that the Cubs are well guided and on the rise. Who knows whether that will matter. I'm sure the Cubs will make him feel wanted. I hope they have the money and the willingness to spend it. At this point, no one here knows what the deciding factor will be.

 

Nobody knows what the deciding factor will be, but $$$$$$$$ would be a good guess.

[Guest]

I say we sign Shark long term to show Tanaka we are ready to compete.

I think the Cubs would have to do a lot more than that to show him that they're ready to compete, but it sure wouldn't hurt. He's no dummy. He and his agent know that the Cubs are well guided and on the rise. Who knows whether that will matter. I'm sure the Cubs will make him feel wanted. I hope they have the money and the willingness to spend it. At this point, no one here knows what the deciding factor will be.

 

Nobody knows what the deciding factor will be, but $$$$$$$$ would be a good guess.

 

I think the whole reason this conversation is being had is because of the reports that the Cubs won't be out-bid but still could have a hard time convincing him to come here.

[Backtobanks]

I say we sign Shark long term to show Tanaka we are ready to compete.

I think the Cubs would have to do a lot more than that to show him that they're ready to compete, but it sure wouldn't hurt. He's no dummy. He and his agent know that the Cubs are well guided and on the rise. Who knows whether that will matter. I'm sure the Cubs will make him feel wanted. I hope they have the money and the willingness to spend it. At this point, no one here knows what the deciding factor will be.

 

Nobody knows what the deciding factor will be, but $$$$$$$$ would be a good guess.

 

I think the whole reason this conversation is being had is because of the reports that the Cubs won't be out-bid but still could have a hard time convincing him to come here.

 

I'm not so sure the Cubs won't be outbid as long as two of the interested teams are the Yankees and Dodgers. It certainly would help our chances if they were worried about the luxury tax, but I don't think that's going to stop them.

[UMFan83]

Jim Bowden doesn't have the Cubs in his 5 most likely destinations. Not that it means anything.

[mul21]

Jim Bowden doesn't have the Cubs in his 5 most likely destinations. Not that it means anything.

 

I'll take that as a positive as wrong as he usually is.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah, Jim Bowden is a [expletive] idiot. He's worse than any of the local idiots in Chicago.

[ctcf]

Jan 24 Deadline:

 

According to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, there is a January 24 signing deadline on Masahiro Tanaka.

Tanaka will officially be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles on Thursday morning and any major league team can then submit a $20 million posting fee for the right to negotiate with him. The bidding war that ensues will have a winner by 5:00 p.m. ET on January 24. Some of baseball's richest clubs are expected to make a run at the 25-year-old right-hander, who is almost certain to land more than $100 million in guaranteed money. He recently selection Casey Close to be his agent.

 

Wanna bet it goes down to the last day?

[RammyFanny]

It's a pretty common theme for always backloading deals or keeping it flat if possible, time value of money, etc., but wouldn't there possibly be some incentive to frontload a deal with Tanaka? Quick thoughts:

 

- A declining salary allows us to pay some of the huge bucks for his first year or two and being able to spend more in future offseasons, having him at a relatively affordable per year salary when we're actually competing. I think we have the space to do this if we want to considering us penny pinching other moves.

 

- I presume a frontloaded deal would be preferable for Tanaka. Who wouldn't like to get paid more and sooner?

 

- If a frontloaded deal is preferable for Tanaka, it might help in deterring the Yankees if they are still concerned with the tax.

 

- If it gets to a point where he's an albatross later in the deal, you're going to have to pick up almost all of what he's owed anyways when trying to trade him.

 

- I don't know, there's just something appealing to me about having him at something like 14 million per year when we're ready to go all out on spending, and are hopefully starting to consistently win, instead of continually paying him 22+ a year (or more if backloaded). I feel like we'd be in a position to utilize this to our advantage considering a chunk of the other teams involved are already operating near their limits (i'm assuming we aren't).

[davell]

For luxury tax purposes, I think contracts go by the average and not individual year, don't they?

[Guest]

You always, without exception, try to backload. Any reasons for front-loading can be done with accounting machinations while still paying out in a back-loaded fashion for TVM purposes. In this situation, it's almost doubly more important for a couple reasons:

 

- Unless the new agreement changed this and I haven't seen it, the "release fee" is due immediately. So you're already front-loading the total cost of Tanaka, because you owe 20 million plus his 2014 salary in the first year of the contract.

 

- The Cubs are far more likely to have financial flexibility later in a long-term deal than at the beginning. It makes little sense to guarantee Tanaka a larger percentage of total payroll in the years where the team is more likely to face hard decisions for money reasons.

 

That said, if they get Tanaka and find that they're still a few million under the spending limits they have, then there's no reason they can't use the aforementioned accounting machinations to apply more of Tanaka's salary to this year's baseball budget. It's one of the reasons that all payroll and "money to spend" calculations have to be taken with a grain of salt, especially with a team like the Cubs who cut some previously expected costs in 2013 payroll through trades but also agreed to pay future salary for Soriano.

 

Bottom line, you ALWAYS backload what gets paid to the player, but if you have room in the baseball budget, you can apply some of that in a more front-loaded fashion to help hedge against performance risk.

[Guest]

For luxury tax purposes, I think contracts go by the average and not individual year, don't they?

 

Yes, the luxury tax number is total contract divided by years. It doesn't change from year to year.

[RammyFanny]

Good stuff TT. Thanks.

[Cubswin11]

The $20 million, at least for accounting purposes, is probably spread out on the books for whatever the length of his initial contract is. No?

[Guest]

The $20 million, at least for accounting purposes, is probably spread out on the books for whatever the length of his initial contract is. No?

 

Possibly, but it's more difficult than the opposite, since the checks need to be written right away. It's a lot easier to earmark current money for future real obligations than it is to pull future money forward to pay out right now. Especially with the current ownership/debt ordeal.

[RammyFanny]

In case anyone was wondering, it appears teams don't have to submit the 20 million posting fee first before talking to him. Only pay it when he's actually signed. So the whole "every team should bid 20 million, even if it's just for PR" is kind of moot. There's no waiting for any posting fees to be accepted or anything, it's already a free for all.

[Wilson A2000]

I know I'm late to this thread, but how does Tanaka compare to Darvish? Really solid, but not quite as good? Do Major League teams expect Tanaka to be a #1 on a really good team?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I know I'm late to this thread, but how does Tanaka compare to Darvish? Really solid, but not quite as good? Do Major League teams expect Tanaka to be a #1 on a really good team?

 

Not as good. Similar but with less velocity, as I understand it.

[davell]

I know I'm late to this thread, but how does Tanaka compare to Darvish? Really solid, but not quite as good? Do Major League teams expect Tanaka to be a #1 on a really good team?

 

Not as good. Similar but with less velocity, as I understand it.

Considered a legitimate 2. By scouting standards, which would place him around the top 20 SP's in MLB.

[Guest]

Yeah, if not in style, production-wise I mentally put him in with guys like Cain(pre-2013), Bumgarner, Fister, and Shields.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

This article is a pretty solid stats-based comparison of Tanaka vis-a-vis the other Japanese pitchers who have come to the states. Here's an excerpt:

 

Certainly, a quick glance at the numbers would suggest Darvish as a good comparison for Tanaka, with similarly insane ERA, identical home-run rate, and both strike out more than average, while walking fewer. In October, one scout was quoted as saying, “He is better than Darvish because he is a strike thrower. Overall, Darvish’s stuff might be a little bit better, but this guy knows how to pitch," with the same piece going on to say, "Some evaluators believe Tanaka could be the best pitcher ever to come from Japan." However, comparing Darvish's stats to Tanaka is tough, because the latter's last three seasons coincided with a new ball in NPB, which severely decreased scoring.

 

Others think Kuroda is a better comparison, led by Jeff Sullivan who says of the pair, "Both have fastballs around the low 90s. Both throw a lot of sliders, both are known for their command, and most importantly, both feature a frequent splitter." There have been concerns about Tanaka's fastball, Baseball America's scouting report warning it "gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more hittable than the velocity might suggest." However, the splitter is acknowledged as particularly filthy. Teammate Brandon Duckworth said of it, "he throws with the same arm speed so that it comes out just like a fastball. It's crazy because that thing just falls off the table."

 

Even those who don't think Tanaka is quite as good as Darvish are hardly dissing the man. Connor Jennings, whose site is dedicated to projecting Japanese players' performance in the majors, says, "While Tanaka has good strikeout stuff, and excellent control, I don’t think he will be quite as good as Darvish. However, he should easily be a front of the line pitcher... He is a safe bet to be around a 4 win pitcher, with potential for more. He has the potential to come in and be the ace of a staff." He pegs Tanaka for a 3.59 ERA, FIP of 3.03, with a K-rate of 8.9, walk rate of 2.9 and home-run rate at 0.7, which doesn't seem too implausible.

 

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Here's Gabe Kapler of Fox adding a bit of info, including some projections on the final contract:

 

Still, a GM told me that he expects Tanaka to grab a contract in the neighborhood of six years and $105M. Add in the $20M posting fee and it’s a $125M spend for the team that ends up landing his services.

 

I believe that the final number will be north of the GM’s prediction because the upside is so great based on Tanaka’s age.

 

Let’s say his numbers and skillset translate enough to make him a No. 2-3 starter in the AL East, which is where most scouts slot him. I’d say John Lackey, who posted a 3 fWAR in 2013 is a fair comp. If a win is worth roughly $6M, Lackey is worth $18M a year if we are to expect last season’s performance. Lackey’s actual salary for 2014 is $15.25M. The AAV on his current deal is $16.5M - but he inked it at age 30.

 

If you follow the line that because Tanaka will pitch 2014 at age 25 you are buying his true prime years like I do, one could make the case that he’s worth more than Lackey and should be signed to a longer contract. Tanaka at seven years and at the exact AAV of Lackey gets $115.5M.

 

I’d submit that Tanaka’s marketing value over the course of seven years in a city like New York or Los Angeles with their enormous Asian communities offsets the $20M posting fee. Accounting for the fact that Lackey’s deal was signed five years ago, I think you can add to Tanaka’s AAV a bit. Sprinkle in a potential bidding war between for the sake of example, the Yankees and Cubs and we may see a contract that jumps into the seven years, $125M range.

 

Just for fun, seven years of 3 fWAR at $6M per comes out to $126M.

 

I recently spoke to an international scout familiar with Tanaka’s value who suggested that the contract negotiations will start at six years and $100M. The Japanese idol recently signed with Casey Close, who will represent Tanaka in this contract negotiation and is the agent behind New York Yankees superstar Derek Jeter.

[Wilson A2000]

$125 million for a #2 or #3 starter in the AL East is ridiculous. I'd rather go after Hamels.