Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-21-13

[bhogg]

Javy is a mutant. It's the only reasonable explanation.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i don't know why parks is responding to trolling from sulley and kyle.

 

Kyle really was doing the best of it, i love his subtle digs at the pundits. nice work.

 

They get on my nerves because they won't just admit that it's not a big coincidence that their opinions on prospects are almost identical to their opinions before the season, but they'll magically shuffle a ton in the offseason. There's 30 organizations. If you spend 12 hours a day, that's still less than half an hour per day per organization. You don't have to pretend like you know more than the fans on every single player.

 

Cano and Baez are 10 months apart in age and playing at the same level.

 

Baez plays SS, might stick there, out-OPSing his league by 50%

Cano plays 3b, probably won't stick there, out-OPSing his league by 25%

 

Walk fetish or not, Baez is the better prospect.

[Elrhino]

"Conventional wisdom" has been that Lindor and Sano should be ranked higher. All it takes is one of them to rank Baez ahead of Lindor, and the many others will soon follow. I think it's mostly about herd mentality and social proof than re-evaluating or reassessing.

 

IMHO, a shortstop with 40 HR potential should top any list of position players, just from the scarcity of skillset. Even if Lindor becomes a plus glove at SS and a .300 slap hitter, aren't there about 8 of those guys in the MLB currently?

Edited August 22, 2013 by Elrhino

[pitchcs]

i don't know why parks is responding to trolling from sulley and kyle.

 

Oooh, I want in.

[pitchcs]

Btw Kyle, it's not Cano.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Btw Kyle, it's not Cano.

 

Dang it. I do that every time. I did it like four times last night when typing in his name to look up his current numbers.

 

More Baez fun:

 

AA vs. Lefties, 436/492/891 for a 1.383 OPS

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Lindor's BB and K rates are obscene for a 19-year old in AA; I get that part. But even given that and assuming Lindor's defense is superior, the disparity in power is just so great that I can't see how anyone could still rank Lindor ahead of Baez.

[beantowncubfan]

Long time reader....first time poster

 

I have a sense that for the last few years, with the exception of Castro, the pundits have considered the Cubs system as one in which prospects went to flame out. It will take some time for this jaded viewpoint to subside and allow the statistics to really speak for themselves. With the wealth of advanced metrics out there, it isn't hard to find an angle with which to question a prospect. For a player like Baez, the pundits will continue to point to historical k and bb rates until they really have their arms wrenched behind their backs. I hope and believe that moment is quickly approaching.

[pitchcs]

i don't know why parks is responding to trolling from sulley and kyle.

 

Oooh, I want in.

 

Ha, yes a retweet! With #Cubs fans, lmao.

[Guest]

Long time reader....first time poster

 

I have a sense that for the last few years, with the exception of Castro, the pundits have considered the Cubs system as one in which prospects went to flame out. It will take some time for this jaded viewpoint to subside and allow the statistics to really speak for themselves. With the wealth of advanced metrics out there, it isn't hard to find an angle with which to question a prospect. For a player like Baez, the pundits will continue to point to historical k and bb rates until they really have their arms wrenched behind their backs. I hope and believe that moment is quickly approaching.

 

Keith Law already flipped a switch in favor of the Cubs when Theo came on board. Guys like him already know Theo and Jed's success and record. The Cubs universally have a top 5 system.

[Smack]

Wow Parks is on tilt lol. Keep it up guys.

[beantowncubfan]

Long time reader....first time poster

 

I have a sense that for the last few years, with the exception of Castro, the pundits have considered the Cubs system as one in which prospects went to flame out. It will take some time for this jaded viewpoint to subside and allow the statistics to really speak for themselves. With the wealth of advanced metrics out there, it isn't hard to find an angle with which to question a prospect. For a player like Baez, the pundits will continue to point to historical k and bb rates until they really have their arms wrenched behind their backs. I hope and believe that moment is quickly approaching.

 

Keith Law already flipped a switch in favor of the Cubs when Theo came on board. Guys like him already know Theo and Jed's success and record. The Cubs universally have a top 5 system.

 

Yes, the cubs have a universally regarded top 5 system, crapping the bed at the big league level and having high draft picks will lead to that. I understand that Jed and Theo are respected. However, their is a large mass out their that believes the Cubs, no matter who is running them, will routinely find a way to screw things up. I think the pundits, whether consciously or not, reflect that bias on some level.

[Guest]

"Conventional wisdom" has been that Lindor and Sano should be ranked higher. All it takes is one of them to rank Baez ahead of Lindor, and the many others will soon follow. I think it's mostly about herd mentality and social proof than re-evaluating or reassessing.

 

IMHO, a shortstop with 40 HR potential should top any list of position players, just from the scarcity of skillset. Even if Lindor becomes a plus glove at SS and a .300 slap hitter, aren't there about 8 of those guys in the MLB currently?

I really don't think it is worth getting worked up over. The actual results will be in soon enough. I'd love to see someone go back six or so years and do three year MLB WAR averages for the top 10 players in each of the "experts" ranking systems and do a simple correlation. I'd guess they'd all be not that good at predicting a rank order accurately,

[mul21]

Wow Parks is on tilt lol. Keep it up guys.

 

His latest on the Manilow vs. Hall and Oates question is either amazingly douchey or hilariously brilliant and I can't decide which.

[Elrhino]

Closing in on 200 PAs at 20 years old, Javy's current ISO in AA at .360.

 

 

Lindor's is currently .105

[jersey cubs fan]

Long time reader....first time poster

 

I have a sense that for the last few years, with the exception of Castro, the pundits have considered the Cubs system as one in which prospects went to flame out. It will take some time for this jaded viewpoint to subside and allow the statistics to really speak for themselves. With the wealth of advanced metrics out there, it isn't hard to find an angle with which to question a prospect. For a player like Baez, the pundits will continue to point to historical k and bb rates until they really have their arms wrenched behind their backs. I hope and believe that moment is quickly approaching.

 

Keith Law already flipped a switch in favor of the Cubs when Theo came on board. Guys like him already know Theo and Jed's success and record. The Cubs universally have a top 5 system.

 

Yes, the cubs have a universally regarded top 5 system, crapping the bed at the big league level and having high draft picks will lead to that. I understand that Jed and Theo are respected. However, their is a large mass out their that believes the Cubs, no matter who is running them, will routinely find a way to screw things up. I think the pundits, whether consciously or not, reflect that bias on some level.

 

While parts of the general public may hold that opinion I doubt any of these guys analyzing prospects and systems as a whole are biased by that nonsense. The fact is there is a perfectly reasonable justification for not getting as worked up about Baez as most of us are.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The only valid reason I can think of is if you are a fan of a different team and don't want the Cubs to do well.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io5zsOm5cyc

 

First one was crazy deep.

[ConstableRabbit]

Gotta love NSBB twitter warz.

 

 

(not sarcastic.. I do)

[Guest]

I stand mostly on the Raisin/goony/Kyle side of this, and pretty firmly...but I could see some bias being involved somewhat at least. Like if Baez were in the Rays or Cardinals system or some other highly regarded player development machine, I could see a little positive bias there.

 

I don't think there's any anti-Cubs "They're going to screw him up" thing with the experts, though.

[Elrhino]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io5zsOm5cyc

 

First one was crazy deep.

 

The second one is almost more impressive, because it doesn't look like he made very clean contact. He hit a 380 foot popup.

[XZero771679666304]

I stand mostly on the Raisin/goony/Kyle side of this, and pretty firmly...but I could see some bias being involved somewhat at least. Like if Baez were in the Rays or Cardinals system or some other highly regarded player development machine, I could see a little positive bias there.

 

I don't think there's any anti-Cubs "They're going to screw him up" thing with the experts, though.

 

I really think it's just a combination of the experts sticking with their horses and hoping they end up looking prescient as well as the simple fact that there's no way they can do all the homework it takes to keep current on every player. At least during the season, as Kyle mentioned.

 

With some (cough Keith Law cough), I think there is a lot of ego involved. Switching up now would entail conceding their initial assessments were off, which would be unacceptable. They'll ride their horses all the way into oblivion like Slim Pickens on his nuke, if need be. And if it comes to that, they will only have been wrong because something "unforeseeable" happened.

[ConstableRabbit]

I stand mostly on the Raisin/goony/Kyle side of this, and pretty firmly...but I could see some bias being involved somewhat at least. Like if Baez were in the Rays or Cardinals system or some other highly regarded player development machine, I could see a little positive bias there.

 

I don't think there's any anti-Cubs "They're going to screw him up" thing with the experts, though.

 

I really think it's just a combination of the experts sticking with their horses and hoping they end up looking prescient as well as the simple fact that there's no way they can do all the homework it takes to keep current on every player. At least during the season, as Kyle mentioned.

 

With some (cough Keith Law cough), I think there is a lot of ego involved. Switching up now would entail conceding their initial assessments were off, which would be unacceptable. They'll ride their horses all the way into oblivion like Slim Pickens on his nuke, if need be. And if it comes to that, they will only have been wrong because something "unforeseeable" happened.

Bingo.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I stand mostly on the Raisin/goony/Kyle side of this, and pretty firmly...but I could see some bias being involved somewhat at least. Like if Baez were in the Rays or Cardinals system or some other highly regarded player development machine, I could see a little positive bias there.

 

I don't think there's any anti-Cubs "They're going to screw him up" thing with the experts, though.

 

I really think it's just a combination of the experts sticking with their horses and hoping they end up looking prescient as well as the simple fact that there's no way they can do all the homework it takes to keep current on every player. At least during the season, as Kyle mentioned.

 

With some (cough Keith Law cough), I think there is a lot of ego involved. Switching up now would entail conceding their initial assessments were off, which would be unacceptable. They'll ride their horses all the way into oblivion like Slim Pickens on his nuke, if need be. And if it comes to that, they will only have been wrong because something "unforeseeable" happened.

 

At the end of the day, there's 30 systems and 7 or 8 teams per system. I don't care if Parks or Law does this for 15 hours a day, that's not enough time to thoroughly follow each system. The hardcore fans of each team know their system better than these guys do.

 

Plus, there's an element of backlash. I imagine their twitter blows up every time Baez homers, and it's never enough until all the Cubs prospects are ranked at the peak of their reasonable ranges.

[Guest]

i don't know why parks is responding to trolling from sulley and kyle.

 

Kyle really was doing the best of it, i love his subtle digs at the pundits. nice work.

 

They get on my nerves because they won't just admit that it's not a big coincidence that their opinions on prospects are almost identical to their opinions before the season, but they'll magically shuffle a ton in the offseason. There's 30 organizations. If you spend 12 hours a day, that's still less than half an hour per day per organization. You don't have to pretend like you know more than the fans on every single player.

 

Cano and Baez are 10 months apart in age and playing at the same level.

 

Baez plays SS, might stick there, out-OPSing his league by 50%

Cano plays 3b, probably won't stick there, out-OPSing his league by 25%

 

Walk fetish or not, Baez is the better prospect.

 

i liked your comment about playing catch up in the offseason, that hit a little close to home with him.