Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-21-13

[TruffleShuffle]

smokies' magic number will be 5 if they win tonight, with 11 games left to play. more baez/alcantara/villanueva = good.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Time for another round of "plug Baez's AA numbers into the MLE calculator and extrapolate for a full season".

 

256/306/524 for an .830 OPS, 45 HRs per 160 games.

 

With bad SS defense or average 3b defense, that's about a 4.5-win player.

[Elrhino]

With Bogaerts graduating to the majors, does Baez have a realistic shot at #2 prospect in baseball this offseason. Looking at BP's midseason top 50, I'm not sure there's a prospect aside from Buxton that I'd definitely put ahead of him. Is that going overboard?

 

everyone outside of buxton has warts, so it really just depends on how he finishes up and what context prospect evaluators put his season in.

 

Taveras - injured most of the year

Sano - contact rate, might not be a 3B.

Bogaerts - graduated.

Lindor - Will be a shortstop, but is a slap hitter

Bradley - Too many walks

Walker - 1.4 WHIP in AAA

Yelich - Graduated.

Correa - Hitting the [expletive] out of the ball in a level he's too good for, but confusingly hasn't been promoted.

 

I think Taveras has locked up enough good will to still be #2. Also, depending on what the publication uses for qualifications, Bogaerts could easily still be eligible.

 

Hopefully a publication like BA will rate Correa, Lindor and Sano lower, but who knows. Heck, Callis said he preferred Bryant to Baez just two weeks ago.

 

Parks is on Twitter saying he still likes Sano and Lindor over Baez. I really don't understand how anyone can prefer Lindor over Baez at this point.

 

Give them till the offseason (and possibly the AFL) to reassess.

 

Let them form a new consensus of groupthink that supersedes the current one being regurgitated.

[CubInOK]

Time for another round of "plug Baez's AA numbers into the MLE calculator and extrapolate for a full season".

 

256/306/524 for an .830 OPS, 45 HRs per 160 games.

 

With bad SS defense or average 3b defense, that's about a 4.5-win player.

I wouldn't mind having a Miguel Cabrera that can't walk on the MLB team right now either.

[imb]

honestly if you told me that baez would be a 40 home run SS and Lindor would never get past AAA, but I would have to give up sex for Baez' entire career, I might do it just so I could troll keith law on twitter for 14 years.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Time for another round of "plug Baez's AA numbers into the MLE calculator and extrapolate for a full season".

 

256/306/524 for an .830 OPS, 45 HRs per 160 games.

 

With bad SS defense or average 3b defense, that's about a 4.5-win player.

 

out of curiosity, where can i find this MLE calculator?

[Tyrant]

honestly if you told me that baez would be a 40 home run SS and Lindor would never get past AAA, but I would have to give up sex for Baez' entire career, I might do it just so I could troll keith law on twitter for 14 years.

 

hahaha

[Hairyducked Idiot]

honestly if you told me that baez would be a 40 home run SS and Lindor would never get past AAA, but I would have to give up sex for Baez' entire career, I might do it just so I could troll keith law on twitter for 14 years.

 

I've been trying that on Mark Prior since 2004 and it hasn't helped.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Time for another round of "plug Baez's AA numbers into the MLE calculator and extrapolate for a full season".

 

256/306/524 for an .830 OPS, 45 HRs per 160 games.

 

With bad SS defense or average 3b defense, that's about a 4.5-win player.

 

out of curiosity, where can i find this MLE calculator?

 

Don't bother, it's dumb and pointless.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Time for another round of "plug Baez's AA numbers into the MLE calculator and extrapolate for a full season".

 

256/306/524 for an .830 OPS, 45 HRs per 160 games.

 

With bad SS defense or average 3b defense, that's about a 4.5-win player.

 

out of curiosity, where can i find this MLE calculator?

 

http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Don't bother, it's dumb and pointless.

 

So's your face.

 

It's not perfect by any means, but it's been established for about 30 years that MLEs are roughly as predictive as MLB stats for immediate future performance.

[XZero771679666304]

honestly if you told me that baez would be a 40 home run SS and Lindor would never get past AAA, but I would have to give up sex for Baez' entire career, I might do it just so I could troll keith law on twitter for 14 years.

 

That depends on how you define "sex".

 

But seriously, that smug [expletive] would find some sort of convoluted rationalization that would allow him to believe he was still somehow right, and had been all along.

[ScrubMD]

honestly if you told me that baez would be a 40 home run SS and Lindor would never get past AAA, but I would have to give up sex for Baez' entire career, I might do it just so I could troll keith law on twitter for 14 years.

 

I've been trying that on Mark Prior since 2004 and it hasn't helped.

 

It doesn't work if you weren't going to have sex anyway.

[Little Slide Rooter]

When the Cubs give you lemons, make lemonade. And as you drink it, tell youself that Javy Baez could be under a year away.

[Guest]

this guy might hit 40 bombs this season

[Guest]

things are getting too optimistic.

 

alberto cabrero had another very pathetic relief outing (1 inning, 5 hits, 4 runs, 1 walk, 1 k)

 

He's been disappointing out of Iowa's pen.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm hoping he's just fatigued from starting all year.

[ctcf]

honestly if you told me that baez would be a 40 home run SS and Lindor would never get past AAA, but I would have to give up sex for Baez' entire career, I might do it just so I could troll keith law on twitter for 14 years.

 

That depends on how you define "sex".

 

But seriously, that smug [expletive] would find some sort of convoluted rationalization that would allow him to believe he was still somehow right, and had been all along.

 

While making a brioche red pepper smoked salmon frittata to use as his twitter avatar.

[Guest]

I'm hoping he's just fatigued from starting all year.

 

Yeah, me too. Or maybe he's only effective as a starter.

 

Arias was fantastic again. Hopefully they can bump him back up to Kane County for a start or two to set himself up for 2014.

[Guest]

[expletive] all other prospects, i wouldn't trade him for anyone.

Same here.

 

You've really got love Buxton's tools and projectability to put him above Javy. Yes, he's good, but I still don't understand how people can say he's the most amazing prospect they've seen when Baez is hitting 2 home runs a night on a regular basis at the age of 20 in AA ball.

 

I think it's just a hipster thing for them at this point.

[Guest]

i gotta hand it to Kyle, he's really giving it to Parks on twitter

[XZero771679666304]

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=29934369&sid=milb

[TruffleShuffle]

it's hard to really evaluate and say "well hey look what baez is doing to AA, he's better than sano/lindor/etc" because he's had fewer than 200 plate appearances, and he's always been pretty streaky. it's quite possible (likely?) that he's just happening to spend some time in AA when he's on an insane hot streak.

 

what i do know is that i've always read that if he starts to get his game under control, then he'd take off really quickly. well, the walk rate is up, the k rate is falling, the power is up, and the errors are down. so maybe it's just a hot month or two, but it also quite possibly could be the switch flipping for a guy with top-notch physical talent.

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't know why parks is responding to trolling from sulley and kyle.

[Guest]

i don't know why parks is responding to trolling from sulley and kyle.

 

Kyle really was doing the best of it, i love his subtle digs at the pundits. nice work.