Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-14-13

[TruffleShuffle]

tennessee has been rolling in the second half (30-20) and the closest team behind them won the division in the southern league first half. daytona is looking good to win their second half crown, and iowa still has a chance at their pathetic division. there's quite a bit of talent stacked up at daytona and tennessee now, so it will be cool if they can each make the playoffs and play some extra baseball.

[mul21]

 

plus defense, plus makeup, leading the league in doubles and extra base hits at age 22. who is with me on the bandwagon?!?

 

Man, those cherry picked stats are nice, but the guy's OPSed .800 once in his MiL career so far and is striking out 4 times for every walk. Throw in the errors and I'm not terribly optimistic. I hate agreeing with Kyle.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

plus defense, plus makeup, leading the league in doubles and extra base hits at age 22. who is with me on the bandwagon?!?

 

Man, those cherry picked stats are nice, but the guy's OPSed .800 once in his MiL career so far and is striking out 4 times for every walk. Throw in the errors and I'm not terribly optimistic. I hate agreeing with Kyle.

 

I put him in the category of "needs to come in above his median projection to be an MLB starter." If he just keeps being himself and progressing through the levels, he peaks out as a .620 OPS guy in the majors or something like that, imo.

 

It's possible that this second half hot streak could be the beginning of a leap in skills that could be just what he needs, but I'm not ready to call it just yet.

 

And that is an awful lot of errors for a guy who is supposed to get a ton of value from defense. I try to be pretty skeptical of defensive reports in the minors, because there tends to be some exaggeration/clinging to the absolute best report.

[Guest]

3 straight 4 page minor league threads? unprecedented Edited August 15, 2013 by 17 Seconds

[Smack]

Anyone know why Bryant doesn't have a player page on BP?

[TruffleShuffle]

 

plus defense, plus makeup, leading the league in doubles and extra base hits at age 22. who is with me on the bandwagon?!?

 

Man, those cherry picked stats are nice, but the guy's OPSed .800 once in his MiL career so far and is striking out 4 times for every walk. Throw in the errors and I'm not terribly optimistic. I hate agreeing with Kyle.

 

saying "OPS'ed once in his MiL career" is a really kyle way of looking at it. he's been in the high .700s every year and has mostly played in leagues that are more favorable to pitchers (south atlantic league, carolina league, florida state league, southern league) and has been significantly better than league average while playing as one of the younger players in each league.

 

2011 (age 20): .278/.338/.465/.803

2011 south atlantic league average: .259/.332/.392/.724

 

2012 (age 21): .285/.356/.421/.777

2012 carolina league average: .257/.327/.390/.717

 

2012 (age 21, after trade): .250/.337/.452/.789

2012 florida state league average: .255/.326/.373/.699

 

2013 (age 22): .266/.318/.466/.784

2013 southern league average: .244/.321/.365/.686

 

 

i'm not saying that he has the upside of baez; i'm saying that i think he has a pretty good chance at turning into a solid everyday 3b at the major league level. and errors are a terrible way to evaluate a player's defense. baez has made 40 errors at SS this year, but scouts are optimistic about his ability to stay at that position.

[toonsterwu]

i am starting to think that ranking baez 4th on my cubs midseason list was too low.

gee - ya think?

 

I'm starting to think Baez 4th on a total MLB list might be a little too low.

 

I think Baez is probably a clear top 10 next year. 4th may be the high end of where he can rank. Buxton is the clear top guy, and then after that, Oscar Taveras probably still gets the benefit of the doubt. I don't think a season with injuries will really reduce how people view him. A case can probably be made as high as 3rd, but Xander Boegaerts is awfully tough to put behind Baez, as folks seem to think that he could play short in his youth if need be. There's a bunch of people in the mix afterwards, and I can see a case for Baez at 4th, because despite a clear concern in his offensive game right now, he's shown that he can adjust to each level, and at his age and development, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he can improve his approach at the plate, and the reports on his ability to stay at short are still fairly bullish. That said, I can probably see folks being concerned enough to give a couple guys a nod ahead of him (maybe a guy like Taijuan Walker, could see some folks sliding Lindor ahead, probably another guy or two I'm forgetting right now).

[TruffleShuffle]

i am starting to think that ranking baez 4th on my cubs midseason list was too low.

gee - ya think?

 

still suffering from corey patterson/ryan harvey high upside first round draft pick PTSD.

[toonsterwu]

I guess I'm somewhere in the middle on Villanueva. I still don't know if I love him, but he's actually had a fairly consistent, positive offensive year (only a down June), so this isn't like a Logan Watkins hot summer run in Daytona/Tennessee. Power was always one of his bigger concerns, but since coming into the Cubs system, there should be less of a concern with his ability to generate enough power. I'm not terribly troubled by his errors, as long as the reports still suggest that he's a potentially solid defender at the hot corner. When you factor all that in, plus his age, and the fact that 3rd base seems increasingly tough to find a solid player these days, and Villanueva becomes a valuable, intriguing prospect. In an ideal world, he's probably not in the Cubs core (with Bryant/Olt/Baez/someone else at 3rd ... and you probably don't want him at 2nd (IIRC, the old Rangers reports on him at 2nd were pretty bad ... I think they tried him there a little bit, if not in regular full season work, perhaps in XST, instructs or something) or in a corner OF role), but well, ideal dynamics rarely come to fruition, so it isn't like I'd be disappointed if Villanueva is our 3rd baseman in a couple years.

 

Ideally, someone else takes over 3rd, and Villanueva is used as a key chip in the next year or two to acquire, say, a key arm, or an impact positional player.

 

He's definitely improved his "stock" this year, though.

[sneakypower]

oddly enough, Villanueva's actually improved each year (119 wRC+ in high-A, 125 wRC+ in AA) since his 2011 season (116 wRC+ in A) that had him as a BA top-100 prospect

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i am starting to think that ranking baez 4th on my cubs midseason list was too low.

gee - ya think?

 

still suffering from corey patterson/ryan harvey high upside first round draft pick PTSD.

 

 

This is why I'm so hyped about him. AA is the age where the numbers for Patterson started to diverge from the hype. Baez got put in a pitcher's AA league that was supposed to humble him, and is getting better.

[toonsterwu]

Rivero promoted to Tennessee.

 

Is the "stuff" still something like low-mid 90's fastball and solid splitter? If so, does seem like an intriguing pen option for next year.

[Guest]

I like Villanueva a good bit(I think a while back I said he'd end up with the sneakiest .800 OPS ever), but I hadn't seen the errors until today and that worries me a bit, especially since his fielding percentage has been pretty static through the years. Baez is making a ton of errors too, but his MLB future isn't hinged on him being an elite defensive player like Villanueva's is, and Villanueva to my understanding isn't exactly the raw toolsy defender that would stand to improve upon high MiLB error totals.

[TruffleShuffle]

on the subject of third base prospects, jeimer hit a home run and also walked tonight. i'm too lazy to figure out his combined july/august line, but it's quite good.

[TruffleShuffle]

I like Villanueva a good bit(I think a while back I said he'd end up with the sneakiest .800 OPS ever), but I hadn't seen the errors until today and that worries me a bit, especially since his fielding percentage has been pretty static through the years. Baez is making a ton of errors too, but his MLB future isn't hinged on him being an elite defensive player like Villanueva's is, and Villanueva to my understanding isn't exactly the raw toolsy defender that would stand to improve upon high MiLB error totals.

 

i don't know how many have been fielding versus throwing. probably can't help much throwing to fat justin bour at first base.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Rivero promoted to Tennessee.

 

Is the "stuff" still something like low-mid 90's fastball and solid splitter? If so, does seem like an intriguing pen option for next year.

 

Last report I heard, yes. And I'm really interested in seeing him as a bullpen candidate for 2014.

 

Honestly, I wouldn't mind if we turned over the entire bullpen over the offseason, and not much of it has to come from outside the organization.

[toonsterwu]

on the subject of third base prospects, jeimer hit a home run and also walked tonight. i'm too lazy to figure out his combined july/august line, but it's quite good.

 

I really expect Jeimer to break out once he gets out of the MWL (in the same vein, I expect Vogelbach to go from somewhat intriguing to, for lack of a better word, damn!, offensively now that he's out of the MWL). The one nice plus on Jeimer's season has been seeing how his discipline has stayed fairly strong, particularly of late.

[Guest]

on the subject of third base prospects, jeimer hit a home run and also walked tonight. i'm too lazy to figure out his combined july/august line, but it's quite good.

 

I really expect Jeimer to break out once he gets out of the MWL (in the same vein, I expect Vogelbach to go from somewhat intriguing to, for lack of a better word, damn!, offensively now that he's out of the MWL). The one nice plus on Jeimer's season has been seeing how his discipline has stayed fairly strong, particularly of late.

Are you under the impression that the FSL is a better hitters league than the MWL?

[sneakypower]

I like Villanueva a good bit(I think a while back I said he'd end up with the sneakiest .800 OPS ever), but I hadn't seen the errors until today and that worries me a bit, especially since his fielding percentage has been pretty static through the years. Baez is making a ton of errors too, but his MLB future isn't hinged on him being an elite defensive player like Villanueva's is, and Villanueva to my understanding isn't exactly the raw toolsy defender that would stand to improve upon high MiLB error totals.

fwiw, BA rated him as the SL's best defensive 3B about a week ago

[toonsterwu]

I don't know the overall league numbers off the top (both are pitcher's leagues, if you want to say one league is more pitcher friendly, it's probably the FSL by a hair, but it's probably close), but unless I'm mistaken, isn't Kane County, like Peoria, a relatively worse home park for offense than Daytona? That's probably an awkward way to put it, so short of it is, isn't Daytona a better home hitting environment than KC for the league? Could've sworn it was, off the top, but maybe I'm mistaken.

 

Edit: Perhaps I should have said once he got out of Kane County, and not the MWL ... then again, maybe I'm mistaken on the park factors for KC and Daytona right now.

[craig]

I've not been much of a Villanueva guy, given all the K's. But he's played most of the year at age 21, and his OPS is now probably over .790. I think he's now near the league's top-10 for OPS, and near the top for slugging (for guys who weren't good enough to get promoted mid-season and thus fall short of AB requirements to get listed in the league stats.) He's been 21 for most of the year.

 

Most guys who hang in the .770-.805 OPS range throughout their minor-league careers don't end up being asset big-leaguers. So I don't expect CV will either.

 

But, the fact that he's been able to sustain his OPS each year despite promotion suggests that he's been improving as fast as the leagues have. He's shown significant progress during this season, and having just turned 22, he's young enough to justify at least the hope (not the expectation) that he might have enough improvement left to make it as capable big-leaguer. He may have already reached his ceiling, of course; but with most of next season still at 22, he may have some improvement still left.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

If he pans out he's Jeff Cirillo or Joe Randa with his defense. Nothing wrong with that.

[Cubswin11]

on the subject of third base prospects, jeimer hit a home run and also walked tonight. i'm too lazy to figure out his combined july/august line, but it's quite good.

It's too bad his highest value to the team will likely be in a trade. I like him a lot.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I was thinking Jeff Baker.

[Guest]

Alcantara steals home!

 

how did this happen with runners on second and third? couldn't have been the usual runner from first stealing second and drawing a throw. maybe the pitcher just fell asleep?

Straight steal. It looked like he went on his own. I doubt it, but it had that random look.