2014 Roster Discussion

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm not privy to the inside finances of it, but I was under the impression we convinced the city of Mesa to pay for the Spring Training facilities.

Ricketts had to rack up a lot of airline miles flying to Florida to convince Mesa to do so. Business class isn't cheap.

[CubsWin]

Minor league players with a realistic chance (some better than others) of contributing to the big league club in 2014:

 

Javier Baez

Arismendy Alcantara

Arodys Vizcaino

Mike Olt

Kyle Hendricks

Neil Ramirez

Armando Rivero

 

There are also players recently brought up who have youth and upside to contribute in greater ways next year:

 

Junior Lake

Jake Arrieta

Justin Grimm

Junior Lake

Zach Rosscup

Alberto Cabrera

Hector Rondon

 

That's 14 guys. Let's say 8 or 9 fail to contribute in any meaningful way. That's still an influx of 5 or 6 players that weren't on the 2013 mid-season roster who would cost very little. That should allow the Cubs to make a very good offer for someone like Tanaka.

[CubsWin]

I'm not privy to the inside finances of it, but I was under the impression we convinced the city of Mesa to pay for the Spring Training facilities.

The stadium, buildings and surrounding city park cost $99 million to build. Mesa put up $84 million. That leaves $15 million that I assume the Cubs paid for, though the linked article didn't specify. The Cubs would certainly be responsible for the hardware (training/rehab equipment, locker room facilites, batting cages, video rooms, etc.) It's still a sizeable investment. So maybe $15-20 million that could have been spent on payroll.

 

Should it have been? I don't think so. Logic and stats tell me it was much better to invest that money in the Cubs future than to have spent it on on-field personnel this year or last.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What logic and stats, out of curiosity?

[CubsWin]

What logic and stats, out of curiosity?

Specifically the stats of where the team was when the new regime took over both talent wise, what their window for winning was and payroll wise. Plus the statistics of where the Cubs ranked both in quality of spring training facilities and presence in the Dominican.

 

The logic then follows with amount of money it would take to increase the likelihood of winning at the major league level and the iffy chances of that investment paying off with a playoff caliber team, it would be wise to invest that money in their future.

[A New Era]

Minor league players with a realistic chance (some better than others) of contributing to the big league club in 2014:

 

Javier Baez

Arismendy Alcantara

Arodys Vizcaino

Mike Olt

Kyle Hendricks

Neil Ramirez

Armando Rivero

 

There are also players recently brought up who have youth and upside to contribute in greater ways next year:

 

Junior Lake

Jake Arrieta

Justin Grimm

Junior Lake

Zach Rosscup

Alberto Cabrera

Hector Rondon

 

That's 14 guys. Let's say 8 or 9 fail to contribute in any meaningful way. That's still an influx of 5 or 6 players that weren't on the 2013 mid-season roster who would cost very little. That should allow the Cubs to make a very good offer for someone like Tanaka.

 

Junior Lake is so good he contributes twice. I mostly agree with your list, and we have an influx of prospects to be pretty active on the trade front this offseason. Adding Tanaka and a couple good trades could really infuse this team with talent and get the ball rolling early.

[NOLA]

Looking at that list of players, if the light comes on for Rizzo and a TOR pitcher is signed that team could be surprisingly competitive. Especially so if we could get some LaHair-like early season magic from someone (Olt?). Yes that's a lot of if's, but not out of the question. If the Cubs are within 4 or 5 games and Baez gets called up in June, we won't have to worry about attendance for awhile.

[SouthSideRyan]

Before people get ahead of themselves, it's quite possible those guys outside of Lake contribute about 2 WAR total.

[NOLA]

Let me qualify the above by saying I think playing meaningful games in August is competitive enough to get me at least excited for next year.

[davell]

Before people get ahead of themselves, it's quite possible those guys outside of Lake contribute about 2 WAR total.

God, I hope not. But yeah, it's possible. Arrieta could throw up a 3 WAR season by himself too though. Grimm and Rondon both look like they'll contribute nicely for the pen and Javy could just as easily give us 4 WAR in half a season than a 0. At any rate, if I were a bookie, I'd set the over/under at 5.5 for that group.

[SouthSideRyan]

Before people get ahead of themselves, it's quite possible those guys outside of Lake contribute about 2 WAR total.

God, I hope not. But yeah, it's possible. Arrieta could throw up a 3 WAR season by himself too though. Grimm and Rondon both look like they'll contribute nicely for the pen and Javy could just as easily give us 4 WAR in half a season than a 0. At any rate, if I were a bookie, I'd set the over/under at 5.5 for that group.

 

I'd unfortunately take the under.

 

I love Javy, but you think it's more likely he comes up and plays at an 8 WAR pace than him experiencing growing pains in his first tour? Justin Grimm's 8 major league innings has you penciling him in for a vital part in the pen? Rondon has good 2nd half #s, but it's all from September where opponents have a .067 BABIP against him. Arrieta's surface numbers look good, but again, he's got a crazy low hit rate, that is unsustainable. His peripherals haven't improved much since coming over, and aren't in the same universe as his peripherals good/standard bad year of '12.

 

I'd take the under on 1 WAR for every guy on that list outside of Lake, Arrieta, and Baez, and I wouldn't bet the over on the last 2 (Baez is more to playing time)

[davell]

I have no clue what to expect from Javy at the outset. My honest guess though is it'll be spectacular or a struggle. Just doubt it's average. Rondon's been showing improvement for a while, including added velo- but I get your point. Same with Grimm, but he did pitch all season(not very well, but showed flashes) in the Rangers rotation before the trade. I've seen enough of Arrieta to know not to count on him, but it is easy to dream on him turning the corner. I'm not sure I'd take the under myself, although I think you've got me leaning that way.

[CubsWin]

Before people get ahead of themselves, it's quite possible those guys outside of Lake contribute about 2 WAR total.

God, I hope not. But yeah, it's possible. Arrieta could throw up a 3 WAR season by himself too though. Grimm and Rondon both look like they'll contribute nicely for the pen and Javy could just as easily give us 4 WAR in half a season than a 0. At any rate, if I were a bookie, I'd set the over/under at 5.5 for that group.

 

I'd unfortunately take the under.

 

I love Javy, but you think it's more likely he comes up and plays at an 8 WAR pace than him experiencing growing pains in his first tour? Justin Grimm's 8 major league innings has you penciling him in for a vital part in the pen? Rondon has good 2nd half #s, but it's all from September where opponents have a .067 BABIP against him. Arrieta's surface numbers look good, but again, he's got a crazy low hit rate, that is unsustainable. His peripherals haven't improved much since coming over, and aren't in the same universe as his peripherals good/standard bad year of '12.

 

I'd take the under on 1 WAR for every guy on that list outside of Lake, Arrieta, and Baez, and I wouldn't bet the over on the last 2 (Baez is more to playing time)

If you go back and read davell's post, what he said was Javy was just as likely to do great (give us 4 WAR in half a season) as he would be to flop (0 WAR), 50/50 either way. He didn't say it would be more likely that Javy would play at an 8 WAR pace. If we can extrapolate anything from his comment its that he thinks the most likely outcome is that Javy would put up a 2 WAR (right in the middle 0-4) in half a season.

 

Justin Grimm has more than 8 major league innings. He has 111.

 

Since July 24th, Hector Rondon has 21.2 IP, 16 H, 17 K/7 BB, 1.06 WHIP, 2.49 ERA, .208 BAA, and has been getting consistently better throughout the 2nd half.

 

That said, I have no idea whether your WAR prediction is pessimistic or optimistic. Heck, we don't even know which guys will contribute from that list of 13.

[CubsWin]

Minor league players with a realistic chance (some better than others) of contributing to the big league club in 2014:

 

Javier Baez

Arismendy Alcantara

Arodys Vizcaino

Mike Olt

Kyle Hendricks

Neil Ramirez

Armando Rivero

 

There are also players recently brought up who have youth and upside to contribute in greater ways next year:

 

Junior Lake

Jake Arrieta

Justin Grimm

Junior Lake

Zach Rosscup

Alberto Cabrera

Hector Rondon

 

That's 14 guys. Let's say 8 or 9 fail to contribute in any meaningful way. That's still an influx of 5 or 6 players that weren't on the 2013 mid-season roster who would cost very little. That should allow the Cubs to make a very good offer for someone like Tanaka.

 

Junior Lake is so good he contributes twice.

Ha! Missed that. Good catch. Thanks.

[SouthSideRyan]

I misspoke on Grimm, I meant the 8 innings since coming over since he sucked in the majors with Texas. As I said on random Looking at the monthly splits, his improvement seems large fly spurred on by an absurd babip against. There's n denying he's improved, but I think to even pencil him in to the major league pen let alone as a quality piece if it would be a mistake

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Before people get ahead of themselves, it's quite possible those guys outside of Lake contribute about 2 WAR total.

 

It's possible, but I also see a couple guys who are capable of doing that by themselves, individually.

 

2014 is going to be a tough season to project. The safe projection is probably "bad again," but there's some upside.

[Guest]

I think there's safety in numbers with the bullpen crowd. Setting aside Strop, Parker, Russell as your back-end to start, you still have Rondon, Cabrera, Rosscup, Rusin, Lim, Vizcaino, Grimm, Hendricks, Rivero, plus potentially Villanueva and Fujikawa as factors at some point. 9 guys for 4 spots, the most of important of which is 7th inning RHP or LOOGY, is good enough for me.

[KingCubsFan]

I think there's safety in numbers with the bullpen crowd. Setting aside Strop, Parker, Russell as your back-end to start, you still have Rondon, Cabrera, Rosscup, Rusin, Lim, Vizcaino, Grimm, Hendricks, Rivero, plus potentially Villanueva and Fujikawa as factors at some point. 9 guys for 4 spots, the most of important of which is 7th inning RHP or LOOGY, is good enough for me.

I feel like we say that every year. I'd still like to see them go out and get a reliable bullpen arm or two.

[Guest]

I think there's safety in numbers with the bullpen crowd. Setting aside Strop, Parker, Russell as your back-end to start, you still have Rondon, Cabrera, Rosscup, Rusin, Lim, Vizcaino, Grimm, Hendricks, Rivero, plus potentially Villanueva and Fujikawa as factors at some point. 9 guys for 4 spots, the most of important of which is 7th inning RHP or LOOGY, is good enough for me.

I feel like we say that every year. I'd still like to see them go out and get a reliable bullpen arm or two.

 

We definitely have not had this type of an assortment of potential bullpen arms every year.

 

That said, I wouldn't be opposed to getting one guy...like next year's Grilli.

[Guest]

Outside of the usual suspects, is there such a thing as a reliable bullpen arm?

[Guest]

I think there's safety in numbers with the bullpen crowd. Setting aside Strop, Parker, Russell as your back-end to start, you still have Rondon, Cabrera, Rosscup, Rusin, Lim, Vizcaino, Grimm, Hendricks, Rivero, plus potentially Villanueva and Fujikawa as factors at some point. 9 guys for 4 spots, the most of important of which is 7th inning RHP or LOOGY, is good enough for me.

I feel like we say that every year. I'd still like to see them go out and get a reliable bullpen arm or two.

 

We haven't had the depth of real options like this offseason, and we haven't had the very strong performances to work off as a baseline. In past season's it's been "well with the numbers we have we'll be able to get to 3 good relievers total to handle the late innings", this year the conversation is more "we have too many people not to end up with a good option for when we don't want to hand it to Russell in the 7th".

 

That said, I wouldn't be upset if they got another bullpen arm. I just don't think it should be all that high a priority and if resources are going to be slim, I'd rather take a shot with the depth here than elsewhere on the roster.

[Jax Teller]

Outside of the usual suspects, is there such a thing as a reliable bullpen arm?

 

There is one example & he is retiring at the end of the year. Since BP arms are so up and down, I've always been a proponent of building the pen from within. Whether through developing short inning relievers or converting fringe starters into late inning BP arms, it's better than overpaying on the market for one.

[Beer Kaese]

I love the discussion over the last week.

 

There is one more issue that needs to be in the mix. Payroll. Young players (when they offer value) have escalating costs. If you anticipate that you may have a lot of them, you better have a low payroll when they reach the majors. Keeping more than a hand full a year can easily cost . . .5, 7, 10 million a year! in extra payroll.

 

I have to back away from something I posted. I assumed Baez would start in AA and would be a September call up.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Outside of the usual suspects, is there such a thing as a reliable bullpen arm?

 

There is one example & he is retiring at the end of the year. Since BP arms are so up and down, I've always been a proponent of building the pen from within. Whether through developing short inning relievers or converting fringe starters into late inning BP arms, it's better than overpaying on the market for one.

 

How'd you get that giant avatar? No fair.

[CubsWin]

I love the discussion over the last week.

 

There is one more issue that needs to be in the mix. Payroll. Young players (when they offer value) have escalating costs. If you anticipate that you may have a lot of them, you better have a low payroll when they reach the majors. Keeping more than a hand full a year can easily cost . . .5, 7, 10 million a year! in extra payroll.

 

I have to back away from something I posted. I assumed Baez would start in AA and would be a September call up.

I don't think it's necessary to have a low or lowish payroll when building with youth. You just need flexibility, i.e. shorter term contracts for veterans. That way when talent from the minors shows that it's ready to come up, they're not blocked long term by a vet whose contract will be difficult to move. You can still maintain a $100 million payroll and build from within so long as you don't have too many long term high priced veterans on the books.