Midseason Top 30 Prospect Ranking

[TheDude]

my tiered top-30

 

top group is listed comparables for best-case / likely / worst-case career arcs for a player, making the assumption they continue development through to the bigs; i guess best-case & worst-case can be thought of as 20th/80th-percentile forecasts, should they see MLB time

 

it's really just an exercise that helps me decide how i feel about a player

 

1) soler: brian jordan / rondell white / juan encarnacion

2) almora: randy winn / marlon byrd / luis matos

3) baez: adrian beltre / jose hernandez / dale sveum

4) bryant: troy glaus / pat burrell / chad hermansen

5) alcantara: ray durham / felipe lopez / mariano duncan

 

 

I know that Jordan and Winn were pretty solid pros who had good careers, but I personally see the best-case scenario for Soler and Almora to be better than that... Not sure who I would compare them to, but I just think that is a pessimistic best-case

 

I always thought Soler physically looked like Richard Hidalgo build wise. But Hidalgo is a tough comparison because he was good, then amazing, then terrible for a year, then good again and then mediocre at best. But Hildago was a career .276/.365/.500 hitter for Houston. That's about the ceiling I see for Soler.

 

I've been to a few Daytona games this year and you are correct, he is a big guy (6'4" maybe 220) and sized nearly identical to Hidalgo in playing days. I don't recall watching Hildago in person so this may have no meaning to your comparison, but the thing that has stood out in watching Soler up close is how violent and loud his contact is, even ground balls. He hits the ball as hard as anyone I've ever seen up close. It's the type of contact that always gets people who weren't watching, only listening, to jerk their head back to the field.

 

I hope he's real deal, I enjoy watching him hit.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Yeah... so my list has pretty much completely changed for the most part.

 

edit: and considering recent events it's going to change even more. I think we should just re-do this whole thing after July 31.

[Shawon12]

With the stockpiling of prospects, will the cubs we susceptible to losing a lot in the Rule 5 draft? Is everyone not on the 40 man roster eligible to be drafted?

[pitchcs]

With the stockpiling of prospects, will the cubs we susceptible to losing a lot in the Rule 5 draft? Is everyone not on the 40 man roster eligible to be drafted?

 

 

Don't know the exact rules, but that's not correct.

 

You are able to protect a number of players not on the 40 man I'm almost certain.

[Guest]

With the stockpiling of prospects, will the cubs we susceptible to losing a lot in the Rule 5 draft? Is everyone not on the 40 man roster eligible to be drafted?

 

 

Don't know the exact rules, but that's not correct.

 

You are able to protect a number of players not on the 40 man I'm almost certain.

 

You're eligible if next season is your fifth pro season and you signed at 18 or younger or next season is your fourth season and you signed professionally at 19 or older.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

so after some more thinking, new prospects, I'll go with:

 

 

1. Albert Almora, CF

2. Javier Baez, SS

3. Kris Bryant, 3B

4. Mike Olt, 3B

5. Arismendy Alcantara, 2B

6. Jorge Soler, RF

--- Top 100 ---

7. Pierce Johnson, RHP

8. CJ Edwards, RHP

9. Paul Blackburn, RHP

10. Dan Vogelbach, 1B

11. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP

12. Alberto Cabrera, RHP

13. Corey Black, RHP

14. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

15. Matt Szczur, CF

16. Junior Lake, IF

17. Eloy Jimenez, OF -- if he signs as expected

18. Dillon Maples, RHP

19. Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP

20. Duane Underwood, RHP

[sweetpeteman]

With the stockpiling of prospects, will the cubs we susceptible to losing a lot in the Rule 5 draft? Is everyone not on the 40 man roster eligible to be drafted?

 

 

Don't know the exact rules, but that's not correct.

 

You are able to protect a number of players not on the 40 man I'm almost certain.

 

You're eligible if next season is your fifth pro season and you signed at 18 or younger or next season is your fourth season and you signed professionally at 19 or older.

 

 

The Cub Reporter has this list currently (updated 7/21/13 apparently). I don't know how accurate it is, but it's probably close:

 

 

CUBS ELIGIBLE FOR MLB RULE 5 DRAFT POST-2013 (last updated 7-21-2013):

Arismendy Alcantara, INF

Gioskar Amaya, INF

Frank Batista, RHP

Xavier Batista, OF

Dallas Beeler, RHP

Justin Bour, 1B

Marcelo Carreno, RHP

Lendy Castillo, RHP

Javier Castro, RHP

Zach Cates, RHP

Hunter Cervenka, LHP

Pin-Chieh Chen, OF

Casey Coleman, RHP

Gerardo Concepcion, LHP

Willson Contreras, C

Wes Darvill, INF

Antonio Encarnacion, RHP

Luis Flores, C

Anthony Giansanti, OF

Enyel Gonzalez, RHP

Carlos Gutierrez, RHP

Jae-Hoon Ha, OF

Marco Hernandez, INF

Eric Jokisch, LHP

Austin Kirk, LHP

Matt Loosen, RHP

Jeff Lorick, LHP

Eric Martinez, RHP

A. J. Morris, RHP

Chad Noble, C

Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP (see NOTE)

Loiger Padron, RHP

Amaury Paulino, RHP

Felix Pena, RHP

Starling Peralta, RHP

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

Kevin Rhoderick, RHP

Greg Rohan, INF

Jose Rosario, RHP

Zac Rosscup, LHP

Victor Salazar, RHP

Brian Schlitter, RHP

Ryan Searle, RHP

Elliot Soto, INF,

Nick Struck, RHP

Luis Villalba, LHP

Yao-Lin Wang, RHP

Oliver Zapata, OF

 

 

 

 

Alcantara is a definite.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

That would suck if they had to waste a spot on Paniagua, who's not looking quite as advanced as I thought at the moment.

 

Can't see anybody else they'd protect except maybe Ha/Rosscup.

[Guest]

Geez, Amaya has to be rostered already? Not that they'd lose him, but doing that dance every offseason is going to get annoying.

 

Alcantara, Rosscup, Jokisch, and Ha are the only 4 that should get any consideration.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Anyone who wants Ha can have him. I really hope we don't try to carry some stiff again next year just to say we got someone in the Rule 5.

[wekim81]

Anyone who wants Ha can have him. I really hope we don't try to carry some stiff again next year just to say we got someone in the Rule 5.

Me too. The last couple years have been disheartening.

[Guest]

Anyone who wants Ha can have him. I really hope we don't try to carry some stiff again next year just to say we got someone in the Rule 5.

 

I'm hoping we're getting close to a threshold where the MLB pen has enough candidates of interest that it won't be feasible to add a Rule 5 guy. Assuming that they add at least one pitcher in free agency, you have:

 

Strop

Russell

Parker

FA or Arrieta if the FA is a SP

Cabrera

Rusin

Lim

 

Plus some guys who are probably best off in AAA but will be available for a call up like Hendricks, Grimm, and Rosscup. Fujikawa will be MLB-ready by the end of the year, and there may be further options added when Gregg or another deadline asset gets traded too.

[CubsWin]

For the purposes of these lists, should we consider Arrieta a prospect still? Grimm?

[Guest]

No to Arrieta, maybe to Grimm depending on how strict you want to be with service time thresholds.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Grimm has 103 innings in the majors. Would not put him on any prospect list.

[CubsWin]

Given Hendricks' proximity to the bigs and the distance away guys like Blackburn, Paniagua, Maples and Underwood are, what do you value more: Hendrick's floor/proximity or the other guys' ceiling? I struggle with this one and would love to hear other people's thoughts.

[CubsWin]

The Cubs haven't signed two better IFAs in recent memory than Jimenez and Torres. Usually, a guy who hasn't played a game in the organization and is 16/17 years old wouldn't even sniff a prospect list. I assume that has more to do with the lack of any meaningful information on them than it has to do with how good they are. Normally, IFAs are so far away that we don't even know how far away they are. There's no gauge, so how can you compare them to anything.

 

But, we do know something about these two. Eloy was the consensus top prospect. Torres was consensus top 3. Again, really difficult to say with any certainty (of course what prospect can you speak about with certainty besides top 5 guys), but where does Eloy go? Is he a better prospect than Balaguert who never got hype anywhere near what Jimenez got? Or is the bust factor too high, the unknowns too great to even rank him at all?

[Guest]

Who am I forgetting on this updated pitcher list?

[CubsWin]

Who am I forgetting on this updated pitcher list?

Ivan Pineyro, Eric Jokisch, Zach Rosscup, 6th rounder Scott Frazier and overslot 12th rounder Trevor Clifton are worthy of mention in my book. Obviously, Vizcaino, but you might not have been able to list him due to the fact that he hasn't pitched this season.

 

You can take Whitenack off the list.

 

If guys like Hatley, Loosen and Struck are on this list, others might argue for Michael Hamann, Armando Rivero, Dayan Diaz, Jose Rosario, Carlos A. Rodriguez, Jeffry Antigua, Hunter Cervenka, Yeiper Castillo, Dae-Eun Rhee, Brian Schlitter and Brooks Raley. But for me, the list is already too long.

[CubsWin]

Then there's rehab guys Michael Jensen, Ryan McNeil and Josh Conway...

[Guest]

Thanks! Must have been half asleep when I updated that list. I know it is long, but it is meant as a comprehensive list of guys that could be of interest.

 

Now for the hitters...

[Ryno12]

Here is my top 40 list that I just threw together, seems like a good time of year to update these things..

 

1) Javier Baez (BEAST 1.0)

2) Kris Bryant (BEAST 2.0)

3) Albert Almora

4) Jorge Soler (BEAST 3.0)

5) C.J. Edwards (wiry frame be damned)

6) Arismendy Alcantara (tough call on 5-7, could go with any order on these 3)

7) Pierce Johnson

8) Dan Vogelbach (BEAST 4.0)

9) Christian Villanueva

10) Jeimer Candelario (want to see the power develop more)

11) Arodys Vizcaino (if healthy, probably 8)

12)Paul Blackburn

13) Mike Olt (return of eye concerns have me worried, still want to believe, though)

14) Rob Zastryzny

15) Alberto Cabrera

16) Kyle Hendricks

17) Duane Underwood

18) Dillon Maples (I hope what we saw in Boise continues)

19) Neil Ramirez

20) Matt Szczur

21) Shawon Dunston Jr. (love the patience)

22) Corey Black

23) Gioskar Amaya (intrigued by rumblings of trying him at catcher)

24) Ivan Pineyro

25) Juan Carlos Paniagua (hope he puts it together)

26) Yasiel Balaguert (BEAST 5.0??)

27) Ben Wells (love him as a back rotation ground ball innings eater)

28) Jacob Hannemann

29) Zach Rosscup (sexy K/9)

30) Wilson Contreras (best catcher in system..)

31) Eloy Jiminez (pure upside pick here)

32) Gleyber Torres (see #31)

33) Jae-Hoon Ha

34) Logan Watkins

35) Tyler Skulina

36) Josh Vitters

37) Carlos Penalver

38) Brett Jackson

39) Dustin Geiger

40) Trey Masek

 

I was going to stop at 30, but still had guys like Ha and Watkins, plus the new IFAs, so went to 40. This system is so deep, I love it.

[davell]

Nice list Ryno. My biggest differences is having Jimenez and Torres quite a bit higher. I have Cabrera a fair amount lower as well, just don 't give him a lot of credit for his season, since it was his 4th time in the league. I currently have 5 players not in your top 40, that are in mine. I do NOT have Hannemann(41st though), Ha, Watkins(42), Brett Jackson, and Masek(44). Instead I have Armando Rivero, Marco Hernandez, Rubi Silva, Daury Torrez, and Erick Leal.

[Ryno12]

Nice list Ryno. My biggest differences is having Jimenez and Torres quite a bit higher. I have Cabrera a fair amount lower as well, just don 't give him a lot of credit for his season, since it was his 4th time in the league. I currently have 5 players not in your top 40, that are in mine. I do NOT have Hannemann(41st though), Ha, Watkins(42), Brett Jackson, and Masek(44). Instead I have Armando Rivero, Marco Hernandez, Rubi Silva, Daury Torrez, and Erick Leal.

 

Thanks, I had completely forgotten about Rivero (likely 20-30 range) and Silva (30-40 range), I may need to dit to include those two. Torrez and Leal would be right there in my 40-45, with Marco right behind them.

[mul21]

What's the rationale of having Hendricks behind Cabrera even after having more success at AAA while starting? Still not convinced Hendricks' stuff will work at the next level or just higher on Cabrera's ceiling?