Who do we trade and what do we expect in return?

[Little Slide Rooter]

They DO have to actually field a team next year. You can't do the "firesale" thing year after year.

 

Yes, but if they don't intend on truly winning (I say winning rather than competing because at least on paper this team should be competing in the sense that they should be at least agressively flirting with .500) until 2015, may as well sell off anything they know won't be a part of that plan. And there's a lot of that. As far as the guys under control through 2014, their value's obviously a lot higher than it will be next year.

 

And I do believe that when free agents that they feel strongly about become available, they'll open the checkbook, as they were willing to do for Anibal Sanchez, who by the way has been awesome this year.

 

As for guys like Maholm, Feldman, and Schierholtz; they found them without a lot of trouble, and when ready to compete, they'll find more at the same price. Until then, may as well keep treating them like baseball cards.

[Little Slide Rooter]

At this point, for Valbuena, do you all think Theo/Jed should sell "high" on his success - though he's fallen off slightly recently - or hang on to him as a potential solution at 3b?

 

He's an average-plus defender at 3rd, and as a hitter has shown pretty good secondary skills, but questionable ability to hit for average. .250 is his best season average so far in his career, and he's basically there right now. He's looking to have a 2.5-3 WAR season if his playing time holds and his AVG doesn't fluctuate. But he's playing at a pace equivalent over a full healthy season to about 25 double, 20 homers and 70-80 walks. Of course, he has barely flashed hints of those kinds of abilities before this year

 

Valbuena won't become a free agent until 2017. He could net a healthy return if someone were to put too much weight into his recent success.

 

As of now, I don't think that Valbuena's trade value is anywhere near his value to the Cubs. He's exactly the type of player we should be stocking up with for cheap, leaving more flexibility for free agents. As you said, he has several years to either increase his value or cement his spot on the team. Personally, I'd like to see him get a bit more time at 2B to maximize his value.

[Sammy Sofa]

They DO have to actually field a team next year. You can't do the "firesale" thing year after year.

 

Yes, but if they don't intend on truly winning (I say winning rather than competing because at least on paper this team should be competing in the sense that they should be at least agressively flirting with .500) until 2015, may as well sell off anything they know won't be a part of that plan. And there's a lot of that. As far as the guys under control through 2014, their value's obviously a lot higher than it will be next year.

 

And I do believe that when free agents that they feel strongly about become available, they'll open the checkbook, as they were willing to do for Anibal Sanchez, who by the way has been awesome this year.

 

As for guys like Maholm, Feldman, and Schierholtz; they found them without a lot of trouble, and when ready to compete, they'll find more at the same price. Until then, may as well keep treating them like baseball cards.

 

It's a shitty FA market and they have critical areas of the team that are obviously severely deficient. They can't just shove off anyone and everyone of value season after season. Russell's a key example. It's stupid baseball to want or expect a firesale every time they stink, otherwise you're just creating a self-perpetuating cycle of crap.

[Guest]

I'd just as soon keep DeJesus and focus the money elsewhere. Or wait until you actually have one of those big FA outfielders signed before you move DeJesus or Soriano. But I won't pitch a fit if they trade one at the deadline.

 

I think you need to move DeJesus with purpose. If you're trading him because prospect A & B you can get for him are slightly better than prospect X & Y you'll probably get for him in the offseason, that's not good enough. You trade him to make the immediate future better. DeJesus is off to a great start, but with his recent history and age you can only really project him to be a half step better than the winner of a Borbon/Jackson/Sappelt/Sweeney thunderdome, so if you can use DeJesus(especially in combination with Feldman or Gregg) to get someone of the caliber that you did for Maholm last year(hopefully without the TJS), then you do that.

 

Or maybe you're able to get an OF solution that makes DeJesus more expendable(e.g. Moreno panics about his pitching and sends us Bourjos for Feldman/Gregg or in a Garza deal), then maybe you try to maximize the return for DeJesus with less regard for 2014. As I said before though, higher level prospects should be the priority regardless.

[Little Slide Rooter]

They DO have to actually field a team next year. You can't do the "firesale" thing year after year.

 

Yes, but if they don't intend on truly winning (I say winning rather than competing because at least on paper this team should be competing in the sense that they should be at least agressively flirting with .500) until 2015, may as well sell off anything they know won't be a part of that plan. And there's a lot of that. As far as the guys under control through 2014, their value's obviously a lot higher than it will be next year.

 

And I do believe that when free agents that they feel strongly about become available, they'll open the checkbook, as they were willing to do for Anibal Sanchez, who by the way has been awesome this year.

 

As for guys like Maholm, Feldman, and Schierholtz; they found them without a lot of trouble, and when ready to compete, they'll find more at the same price. Until then, may as well keep treating them like baseball cards.

 

It's a [expletive] FA market and they have critical areas of the team that are obviously severely deficient. They can't just shove off anyone and everyone of value season after season. Russell's a key example. It's stupid baseball to want or expect a firesale every time they stink, otherwise you're just creating a self-perpetuating cycle of crap.

 

I guess that it depends on what you mean by fire sale then. The young guys like Russell, Wood, and Valbuena that may not be cornerstones for the future, but are certainly key pieces should not be sold off. I wouldn't expect them to be. Then again, if somebody wanted Russell bad enough that they were willing to give up something comparable to what we got for Marshall, you don't say no. As for guys like DeJesus, Feldman, Gregg, and Soriano, sure, they could be useful in 2014. Just not beyond. Their value can go nowhere but down if for no other reason than age and service time. With this in mind, assuming that somebody is willing to give up something of long term value for them, you almost have to take it.

 

There are also prospects that are in the [expletive] or get off the pot stage. Jackson, Vitters, and Watkins are a few guys whose prospect expiration dates are fast approaching. Whether or not they're big league ready, AAA is no longer going to be able to fix their main issues. Trimming the fat gives a chance to give these guys a sink or swim look at the big league level, and decide whether or not there's a future for them. It's one thing to take fliers on guys like Sweeney or Borbon, but there's no reason to be giving guys like Lillibridge and Ransome PT over these guys once the truck is backed up.

[A New Era]

They DO have to actually field a team next year. You can't do the "firesale" thing year after year.

 

Selling high on Garza and Feldman and getting some quality young guys is not a firesale. It's improving your farm even more than it already is (and it's tons better in just one years time). A firesale is telling teams Castro, Rizzo, Shark, Garza, Wood, Russel, etc. etc. etc. are all for sale. I think you're over reacting a bit to trading 2 or 3 short term guys for more long term assets.

 

Firesale is what that Marlins and Astro's have been doing. The Cubs do sort of half assed firesales, only trading somewhat older, short term guys away to build up the farm. I think it's been working out so far, because our farm is gonna have a [expletive] of talent to trade from, on top of the elite guys that actually make it to our team.

[Sammy Sofa]

They DO have to actually field a team next year. You can't do the "firesale" thing year after year.

 

Selling high on Garza and Feldman and getting some quality young guys is not a firesale. It's improving your farm even more than it already is (and it's tons better in just one years time). A firesale is telling teams Castro, Rizzo, Shark, Garza, Wood, Russel, etc. etc. etc. are all for sale. I think you're over reacting a bit to trading 2 or 3 short term guys for more long term assets.

 

I was replying to someone who listed 9 players they want the Cubs to move, not 2 or 3. Then WSR did his thing where he quotes a post but really just wants to go off on a whole other point.

 

And you wouldn't be selling high on Garza.

 

I have no problem with them moving someone like Feldman or Gregg; my issue is with the assumption that they're better off divesting themselves of Garza or trading DeJesus or even guys like Barney or Russell.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Garza's contract expires at the end of the year. You are "freeing" yourself of him whether you trade him or not.

[Sammy Sofa]

Garza's contract expires at the end of the year. You are "freeing" yourself of him whether you trade him or not.

 

No kidding; I disagree with the idea that the Cubs are automatically better off being rid of him either through trade or letting him walk if they can get him back on the (relative) cheap.

[davell]

You have to weigh things out with Garza. If he wants a 5/80 extension and is pitching well in 2 months, and is willing to sign it......Do you prefer that or a package of Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo(just an example), for instance? With the money to invest in someone over the offseason. I'm honestly unsure what I'd ultimately do, as Garza's health does kind of scare me, but I think I'd extend him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I have very little interest in extending a 30-year-old pitcher coming off three consecutive years with DL trips, two of them from elbow problems.

[Guest]

I have very little interest in extending a 30-year-old pitcher coming off three consecutive years with DL trips, two of them from elbow problems.

+1

[Tryptamine]

I don't endorse the idea, but can you imagine the haul the Cubs could get for Samardzija right now? You might land a top 20 talent, top 50 talent, top 100 talent and another couple guys who would slot into the Cubs' top 20.

 

On a more realistic note. There are a few trades I'd really love to see happen.

 

Dejesus+Feldman to the Royals for Yordano Ventura and the competitive balance pick.

Garza to Texas for Leonys Martin and Rougned Odor

Russell to DET for Avisail Garcia

[davell]

You couldn't get Ventura alone for those two, not to mention that the draft is over before Feldman can even be dealt.

[Tryptamine]

You couldn't get Ventura alone for those two, not to mention that the draft is over before Feldman can even be dealt.

 

Probably not, but you have to wonder how desperate the Royals are going to be pushing for their first postseason in however long.

[davell]

At 21-27, I think its much more likely that we'd see them bring Ventura up than deal him away for anything less than being a lead piece for an impact piece.

[ScrubMD]

I would put our tradable assets into these categories.

 

Only if someone overpays by a lot (think Juan Pierre trade*): Russell, Wood

 

Only if someone overpays a little bit (think Sean Marshall trade**): Barney, Villanueva, Garza - if he's willing to sign a team-friendly extension

 

Fair offer: DeJesus, Feldman, Garza - if he won't sign a team-friendly extension

 

If you can get anything of value: Soriano, Marmol, Gregg.

 

*We overpaid by a lot

**They overpaid a little bit

[Tryptamine]

I would put our tradable assets into these categories.

 

Only if someone overpays by a lot (think Juan Pierre trade*): Russell, Wood

 

Only if someone overpays a little bit (think Sean Marshall trade**): Barney, Villanueva, Garza - if he's willing to sign a team-friendly extension

 

Fair offer: DeJesus, Feldman, Garza - if he won't sign a team-friendly extension

 

If you can get anything of value: Soriano, Marmol, Gregg.

 

*We overpaid by a lot

**They overpaid a little bit

 

Not going to lie, that Soriano for Dominic Brown rumor from the offseason would look pretty good right about now.

[Sammy Sofa]

I thought the Cubs wanted Brown but the Phillies said no. Do I have that backwards?

[Cubswin11]

I thought the Cubs wanted Brown but the Phillies said no. Do I have that backwards?

I'm not 100% sure but I think so. Pretty sure we said no/demanded another player or something.

[sneakypower]

i liked the idea of a Dom Brown trade as an upside play, but reports were we were the ones who didn't want him

 

he's also taken as many walks as Castro this season and UZR hates him: -19 UZR/150 in the OF for his career

 

he's basically Delmon Young if he doesn't start taking more walks again

[Exile on Waveland]

Well that's kind of strange . . . and surprising. I thought all the smart kids were all about former top prospects that struggled early. Seems like Brown would have been a great buy-low candidate.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I thought the Cubs wanted Brown but the Phillies said no. Do I have that backwards?

I'm not 100% sure but I think so. Pretty sure we said no/demanded another player or something.

 

As I recall, Brown was in the discussion, but I don't think there was ever confirmation as to the extent. There was a report by a Phillies executive that they'd made a "generous offer" and we turned it down.

[Little Slide Rooter]

On Garza: yeah, he's 30. Yeah, he's had his DL stints. This being said, 25-28 year old front end starters aren't exactly falling from trees. Young top players are getting locked up through their prime more and more, and as a result guys like Edwin Jackson, B.J. Upton, and Kyle Lohse are what's passing for top free agents. I say we extend Garza; 5 years tops, maybe a vesting option or two. Front load if possible.

 

 

On Shark; yeah, he'd probably net us quite the prospect package, but even then, they're such a crap shoot. Shark's looking more and more like a sure thing every day, so I'd just as soon hang on to him, unless somebody with a strong farm system is willing to go out of their mind. If not, he's just what we need going forward.

[A New Era]

If guys like Garza hitting the FA market are more rare, then the hope is it's gonna cost alot in prospects for some team in the playoff hunt desperate for a guy like him. If you are clearly out of contention you have to think hard and make a few of your guys available to take advantage of that situation. We just happen to have a few short term guys that we can part with, with each his own expected level of return.