John Arguello: Cubs Scouting Blue Jays & Royals' Systems

[CaliforniaRaisin]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/05/cubs-scouting-royals-and-blue-jays-farm-system/

 

A couple of deep farm systems to be targeting, and I agree with John that that tradable competitive balance pick would look mighty enticing to Theo.

[Named After Maddux]

I'm intrigued about that pick at #34. With the Royals in contention (early as it is), they could be an interesting trade partner. A package of a pitcher and DJD might be enticing on their end.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I want more than the No. 34 pick for DeJesus.

[Cubswin11]

Sean Nolin seems intriguing from the Blue Jays and #34 isn't ideal, but not bad either for Dejesus. I'd like to think we could get a top 12-15 prospect for him along with a pick.

[davell]

34th pick likely has a slot value of 1.5ish or so. It could push us past Houston, if they set themselves up to add a top 10-15ish type talent that drops due to signability. If that "unsignable guy" doesn't drop, is adding a Pierce Johnson type-talent enough for DeJesus? I tend to think its fair myself, but I'd love to get more.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd take the 34th pick for Dejesus. The flexibility it would give us would be nice.

[Guest]

I want more than the No. 34 pick for DeJesus.

 

Am I underestimating the DeJesus trade market? I see pick 34 as a back of the Cubs top 10 type prospect with the additional benefit of the Cubs getting to pick anyone available at 34, not just picking from a limited set of players in one specific organization. Seems like good value for DeJesus if they're going to trade him.

[jersey cubs fan]

I want more than the No. 34 pick for DeJesus.

 

Am I underestimating the DeJesus trade market? I see pick 34 as a back of the Cubs top 10 type prospect with the additional benefit of the Cubs getting to pick anyone available at 34, not just picking from a limited set of players in one specific organization. Seems like good value for DeJesus if they're going to trade him.

 

Wait. Wouldn't the prospects in one quality organization be a better collection to choose from than just guys available after pick 33? Not all organizations, but the ones you want to deal with should be. And you would have the advantage of having a guy with more data points to judge.

[UK1679666180]

I want more than the No. 34 pick for DeJesus.

 

Am I underestimating the DeJesus trade market? I see pick 34 as a back of the Cubs top 10 type prospect with the additional benefit of the Cubs getting to pick anyone available at 34, not just picking from a limited set of players in one specific organization. Seems like good value for DeJesus if they're going to trade him.

 

Wait. Wouldn't the prospects in one quality organization be a better collection to choose from than just guys available after pick 33? Not all organizations, but the ones you want to deal with should be. And you would have the advantage of having a guy with more data points to judge.

 

Depends on the list of names KC would present to the Cubs in exchange for DeJesus or whether or not that 34rd pick is better than those names.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I want more than the No. 34 pick for DeJesus.

 

Am I underestimating the DeJesus trade market? I see pick 34 as a back of the Cubs top 10 type prospect with the additional benefit of the Cubs getting to pick anyone available at 34, not just picking from a limited set of players in one specific organization. Seems like good value for DeJesus if they're going to trade him.

 

Wait. Wouldn't the prospects in one quality organization be a better collection to choose from than just guys available after pick 33? Not all organizations, but the ones you want to deal with should be. And you would have the advantage of having a guy with more data points to judge.

 

Depends on the list of names KC would present to the Cubs in exchange for DeJesus or whether or not that 34rd pick is better than those names.

 

I'm more intrigued by the 34rd pick, seeing as until this moment, there was no such thing.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Any chance that the Royals would come out of John Lamb? He seems to be recovering very well from TJS, and is only 22 despite being around for ages?

[davell]

KC has a very young, but very solid system. Obviously, they wouldn't offer Kyle Zimmer, Bubba Starling, Yordano Ventura, or Adalberto Mondesi for DeJesus. Seriously doubt they'd offer Miguel Almonte either. Are guys like Cheslor Cuthbert, Kyle Smith, Jorge Bonifacio, Jason Adam, or John Lamb better than the 34 pick possibilities? Each could be under consideration for our top 10, but I'm not thinking I'd take them(unless I could get 2) over the pick. We want and need impact types. To me, there's a better chance of finding it at 34 than from a guy that likely is around the same talent level as Christian Villanueva. Nice prospect, but isn't likely to ever break out to where he's got a ton of value at any point.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I want more than the No. 34 pick for DeJesus.

 

Am I underestimating the DeJesus trade market? I see pick 34 as a back of the Cubs top 10 type prospect with the additional benefit of the Cubs getting to pick anyone available at 34, not just picking from a limited set of players in one specific organization. Seems like good value for DeJesus if they're going to trade him.

 

Eh, part of it is that I'm just not crazy about non-top draft picks. Doing a quick list off the top of my head, I'd have a hard time seeing a guy picked there cracking our top 10 after the draft, though they'd be in that 8-20 range where you could argue for just about any order and be reasonable.

 

DeJesus is a really useful MLB starter with a team-friendly option for next year. If I'm trading him, I'm imagining a Maholm-like return. Just a pick would be disappointing. Not "storm the castle and burn it down" levels of rage, just on the low end of what I'd consider reasonable.

[Little Slide Rooter]

KC has a very young, but very solid system. Obviously, they wouldn't offer Kyle Zimmer, Bubba Starling, Yordano Ventura, or Adalberto Mondesi for DeJesus. Seriously doubt they'd offer Miguel Almonte either. Are guys like Cheslor Cuthbert, Kyle Smith, Jorge Bonifacio, Jason Adam, or John Lamb better than the 34 pick possibilities? Each could be under consideration for our top 10, but I'm not thinking I'd take them(unless I could get 2) over the pick. We want and need impact types. To me, there's a better chance of finding it at 34 than from a guy that likely is around the same talent level as Christian Villanueva. Nice prospect, but isn't likely to ever break out to where he's got a ton of value at any point.

 

From what I hear, beyond Appel and Gray, the draft class isn't that remarkable. I'd definitely take a top 15-20 prospect in a strong farm system over the sandwich pick. DeJesus also has a 6.5 M team option, which if we were to keep him I'd expect picked up. To me, Lamb is a no brainer. 22 year old who was a top 20 prospect 2 years ago, and seems to be doing well for himself following TJS. I can't imagine we'll find anything as valuable at the 34th pick. Certainly not someone who could be a 2-3 starter in a big league rotation in the next 2 years, assuming he stays healthy.

[Guest]

I want more than the No. 34 pick for DeJesus.

 

Am I underestimating the DeJesus trade market? I see pick 34 as a back of the Cubs top 10 type prospect with the additional benefit of the Cubs getting to pick anyone available at 34, not just picking from a limited set of players in one specific organization. Seems like good value for DeJesus if they're going to trade him.

 

Eh, part of it is that I'm just not crazy about non-top draft picks. Doing a quick list off the top of my head, I'd have a hard time seeing a guy picked there cracking our top 10 after the draft, though they'd be in that 8-20 range where you could argue for just about any order and be reasonable.

 

DeJesus is a really useful MLB starter with a team-friendly option for next year. If I'm trading him, I'm imagining a Maholm-like return. Just a pick would be disappointing. Not "storm the castle and burn it down" levels of rage, just on the low end of what I'd consider reasonable.

 

Sure, I'd love to get a Maholm-type return but I think a Dempster-like return is more practical in which case, I'd prefer the 34th pick.

[davell]

I mean, we got Johnson at 41 last year. He was definitely a top 10 guy in our system heading into the year. Other guys that went after 34 were Joey Gallo, Lance McCullers, Matt Smoral, Walker Weickel, and Carson Kelly. All of whom were considered top 10-15 talents by quite a few. Even if the draft is weaker, there's still going to be top end types that fall. Getting ahead of Houston is a really good idea, especially with the Yanks and a few other teams having multiple picks ahead of us that can maneuver things to pick off a big name that dropped as well. Bottom line for me is I think a guy that fits inside our top 10 is very solid value for DeJesus, which I see pick 34 bringing us.

[Little Slide Rooter]

What we need is guys that can help us on the big league level in the next few years. lamb is 22 and could be in the big leagues as soon as this fall. Kyle Smith is only 20 and already doing very well for himself at High A after a very succesful rookie season in which he did great in A. Why would you not take that over a draft pick who you hope can be that guy in a few years time?

[Guest]

What we need is guys that can help us on the big league level in the next few years. lamb is 22 and could be in the big leagues as soon as this fall. Kyle Smith is only 20 and already doing very well for himself at High A after a very succesful rookie season in which he did great in A. Why would you not take that over a draft pick who you hope can be that guy in a few years time?

Given Lamb's checkered injury history and how bad the scouting reports were last year, I'd be very wary of acquiring him.

[davell]

Smith is small, pitches around 90, just is very polished. His upside isn't very intriguing. If Lamb regains his velo, he's very interesting.

[A New Era]

Yeah I side more on the 34th pick side. Look what they got for their first sandwich round pick last year. We have a great FO and great scouts. I think something along the lines of the 34th pick + a couple lottery tickets (legit young prospects like Erik Leal and that other guy) would be ok with me. Ofcourse I'd want more too, but I think this is a realistic floor.

[Little Slide Rooter]

We can't just assume that if not traded, we'll take the comp pick. DeJesus has a 6.5MM team option for 2014, which is a decent value. Knowing that the finances aren't what we'd hoped, and they start the season off intending to win, my thinking is that we'd pick up the option. Especially if Brett Jackson does nothing to inspire confidence in his ability to hold down the fort until Almora takes over.

[davell]

If DeJesus is NOT traded, we won't get a comp pick, period.

[Beer Kaese]

If DeJesus is NOT traded, we won't get a comp pick, period.

 

I agree.

 

DeJesus has a maximum trade value this year because of the team option for next year. The club will not contend during the contract period so he must be converted to the maximum future impact. A team trading for a vet like DeJesus for a couple seasons is not inclined to trade top prospects or near major league ready players because they need those known quantities, that's why they are acquiring veteran talent. The 34th pick is about as maximum impact as DeJesus is worth.

[Little Slide Rooter]

One thing that strikes me about the Blue Jays system is that it's very young. 7 of their top 10 are 20 or younger; #1 is 20 and then the other 6 are 18-19. In their top 20, only 1 guy is over 23.

 

I know that younger guys are more likely to be raw, but With The Jays clearly in win now mode I have to wonder if they'd be willing to give up more of their top guys than the Royals who have more polished prospects in their system, and less money at their disposal.

[Beer Kaese]

A high ceiling raw young prospect is a sandwich pick that looks good after a year. If we were able to get that we'd add to the quality in Kane County.