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Posted
from jonah keri's big 2014 mlb predictions column:

 

Finally, while the Cubs did get 23 homers from Anthony Rizzo last year, his 2013 season still qualified as a mild disappointment. Right now, it looks like the Padres got the better end of the Rizzo-for–Andrew Cashner deal, and until Rizzo alters that narrative, the Cubs will probably sit in this spot.

 

i was pretty surprised to read this and thought most people regarded rizzo highly going forward and assumed cashner would just get hurt. does keri's sentiment there reflect the smart guy conventional wisdom?

Posted
It was only a matter of time where Rizzo had one of these years. He does too many good things not to put up offensive value. He was hitting homers from lefties last year on the same portion of the plate where his BABIP was .000. There was dissonance there. It's really fun to see him finally have one of these years.
Posted
What's crazy to me is that in a few years if Rizzo continues to put up seasons like this where he's hitting 35+ homers a year and a ~.900+ OPS... he might be the fourth best bat on the team
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What's crazy to me is that in a few years if Rizzo continues to put up seasons like this where he's hitting 35+ homers a year and a ~.900+ OPS... he might be the fourth best bat on the team

 

very probably not. calm the prospect hype just a tad.

Posted
What's crazy to me is that in a few years if Rizzo continues to put up seasons like this where he's hitting 35+ homers a year and a ~.900+ OPS... he might be the fourth best bat on the team

 

very probably not. calm the prospect hype just a tad.

 

Said he *might*. Not committing to that at all

Posted
baez is going to have to slug like .700 to have more offensive value than good rizzo with the obp deficit that would exist between them.
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Posted
What's crazy to me is that in a few years if Rizzo continues to put up seasons like this where he's hitting 35+ homers a year and a ~.900+ OPS... he might be the fourth best bat on the team

 

very probably not. calm the prospect hype just a tad.

 

Said he *might*. Not committing to that at all

 

doesn't make it any better

 

we should be really happy if even one of those guys ends up as good a hitter as this rizzo. there won't be 3 who are better.

 

you could say that about castro and it'd sound less crazy at least.

Posted
baez is going to have to slug like .700 to have more offensive value than good rizzo with the obp deficit that would exist between them.

 

I realize you're being hyperbolic, but I don't think Baez's OBP is going to be the cataclysmic disaster you're implying it would be. I think he'll be closer to .350 than .300, personally.

Posted
What's crazy to me is that in a few years if Rizzo continues to put up seasons like this where he's hitting 35+ homers a year and a ~.900+ OPS... he might be the fourth best bat on the team

 

very probably not. calm the prospect hype just a tad.

 

Said he *might*. Not committing to that at all

 

doesn't make it any better

 

we should be really happy if even one of those guys ends up as good a hitter as this rizzo. there won't be 3 who are better.

 

you could say that about castro and it'd sound less crazy at least.

 

Yeah, 3 guys hitting better than Rizzo means that either Rizzo's face finally imploded and became a tinyblackhole of the Cubs 's farm system has miraculously produced one of the best offensive teams. I'll surprised if more than one of them ends up outproducing him on the regular; he's been THAT good (which is totally all in my face for doubting).

Posted
baez is going to have to slug like .700 to have more offensive value than good rizzo with the obp deficit that would exist between them.

 

I realize you're being hyperbolic, but I don't think Baez's OBP is going to be the cataclysmic disaster you're implying it would be. I think he'll be closer to .350 than .300, personally.

I suppose if he's a good enough hitter hell have a highish OBP from being pitched around and a high average, but a

.260/.310/.450 type line is still a pretty likely outcome.

Posted
baez is going to have to slug like .700 to have more offensive value than good rizzo with the obp deficit that would exist between them.

 

I realize you're being hyperbolic, but I don't think Baez's OBP is going to be the cataclysmic disaster you're implying it would be. I think he'll be closer to .350 than .300, personally.

I suppose if he's a good enough hitter hell have a highish OBP from being pitched around and a high average, but a

.260/.310/.450 type line is still a pretty likely outcome.

 

If Javier Baez's likely outcome is as a .760 OPS hitter then let's not hesitate to move him for someone like Stanton ASAP.

 

Maybe I'm optimistic, but I like to think Javy is perennially going to be above an .850 OPS when he settles in and adapts to big league pitching. At the very least an .800 OPS should be cake for a guy with his power. Castro, at the moment, has a .767 OPS. He's drawn 26 walks. He's a good bet for 15-20 homers. I think Javy has better patience than Castro, and he obviously has more power. A .760 OPS is basically another Starlin Castro, which is fine, Castro is a great player, but I don't think for a second they'll be matching up, OPS wise. I fully expect a player with 40 home run power to put up and OPS of .800 at the very least. If he's a .760 OPS guy I'll be very disappointed.

Posted
baez is going to have to slug like .700 to have more offensive value than good rizzo with the obp deficit that would exist between them.

 

I realize you're being hyperbolic, but I don't think Baez's OBP is going to be the cataclysmic disaster you're implying it would be. I think he'll be closer to .350 than .300, personally.

I suppose if he's a good enough hitter hell have a highish OBP from being pitched around and a high average, but a

.260/.310/.450 type line is still a pretty likely outcome.

 

If Javier Baez's likely outcome is as a .760 OPS hitter then let's not hesitate to move him for someone like Stanton ASAP.

 

Maybe I'm optimistic, but I like to think Javy is perennially going to be above an .850 OPS when he settles in and adapts to big league pitching. At the very least an .800 OPS should be cake for a guy with his power. Castro, at the moment, has a .767 OPS. He's drawn 26 walks. He's a good bet for 15-20 homers. I think Javy has better patience than Castro, and he obviously has more power. A .760 OPS is basically another Starlin Castro, which is fine, Castro is a great player, but I don't think for a second they'll be matching up, OPS wise. I fully expect a player with 40 home run power to put up and OPS of .800 at the very least. If he's a .760 OPS guy I'll be very disappointed.

I'm not sure Javy has a most likely outcome or anything, but I do think he'll hit for a lower average than a guy like Castro and even with a little better IsoD you're probably left with a lower OBP guy. I have a hard time seeing him as a 80-100 IsoD. Maybe 450 was a little conservative SLG, but I'm trying to wrap my mind around the current offensive landscape and 450 is still a pretty good power output, particularly for a MIF. No doubt he does have immense potential to be more than that but he does have some bust and regression potential.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Posted
Since 2013:

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder combined: 4.5 fWAR

Anthony Rizzo: 4.8 fWAR

He's also hit as many home runs this year as Yonder Alonso has in his career.

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Posted
Since 2013:

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder combined: 4.5 fWAR

Anthony Rizzo: 4.8 fWAR

He's also hit as many home runs this year as Yonder Alonso has in his career.

 

Bob Wehrsdorfer @ChyronBob

A stat I won't show on tv, but . . .

Since 2012, Anthony Rizzo has hit 64 HR, while Padres first basemen combined have hit 35 HR.

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Posted

Yes, but there's two sides there. Let's check in with Cashner:

 

 

http://fapress.jasonconnorswebs.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/pitching-mound.jpg

 

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