Rizzo

[jersey cubs fan]

After Trout and Harper are moved to first I'd like to see Detroit move Verlander there to save his arm.

[neely crenshaw]

I agree. His stats are good, and hopefully continue to get better.

They are not in the realm of Pujols, Fielder or Votto who I would call generational first basemen. He also hasn't approached what Stanton did last year in an awful hitters park and he's very similar to what Harper did at 19. His current stat line does not put him in that elite category. He has room for growth, but his stat line makes him Durham or Lee not Pujols or Votto.

[sneakypower]

which reminds me, Soriano never did move to 1B, did he

[Guest]

which reminds me, Soriano never did move to 1B, did he

Ha, you thought I was being snarky for bringing the Castro conversation back up!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Nobody wants to start an archive war, because anybody who has ever posted 10 baseball opinions in their life is going to look silly for at least five of them.

[treebird]

Nobody wants to start an archive war, because anybody who has ever posted 10 baseball opinions in their life is going to look silly for at least five of them.

 

MARK PRIOR IS NOT AN INJURY RISK

[SABR Gamer]

OK I can go with the age, that gives us hope, but he is at .328 according to baseball reference.

It's hard for me to say he can do something easily...when he has never done it.

 

wOBA up to .388 now.

[imb]

Nobody wants to start an archive war, because anybody who has ever posted 10 baseball opinions in their life is going to look silly for at least five of them.

 

not me

[Guest]

.262/.348/.557

 

swoon

[Little Slide Rooter]

Nobody wants to start an archive war, because anybody who has ever posted 10 baseball opinions in their life is going to look silly for at least five of them.

 

Someone bust out the Milton Bradley thread.

[neely crenshaw]

OK I can go with the age, that gives us hope, but he is at .328 according to baseball reference.

It's hard for me to say he can do something easily...when he has never done it.

 

wOBA up to .388 now.

 

Why do you do this? I said I missed the w, and was talking ob%. My mistake, let it go

 

As for the remark of moving Verlander

Harper was drafted as a catcher. and moved immediately to the OF. He was more than an adequate catcher, but at 18 in order to maximize his longevity they moved him. The way he throws himself around the OF, they may move him to first also, it's not really a stretch. Stanton is 6'6 and has already dealt with shoulder and hamstring injuries this season. He also seems like a natural fit for 1b.

Pujols played shortstop at times, do you think he was moved because he couldn't play defense?

As for outfielders like Trout(less likely) and Harper, Darin Erstad was a gold glove center fielder and moved to first to save his body.

So someday when Trout, Harper and Stanton sign 150 million dollar deals, their teams may feel it's better to make sure they have them healthy for 162 games and move them. It's at least a very serious possibility. Certainly nothing to scoff at or dismiss.

The discussion is about Rizzo, how few young 1b there are, and the possibility of being "generational". My point would be that it's hard to judge who will be generational at 1B, when many of the next generation of great first baseman probably aren't playing the position currently. I offered several possible names that are putting up stats that are similar or better. You could also throw out names like Chris Davis and Paul Goldschmidt, who are 27 and 25, that are putting up better stats than Rizzo. Goldschmidt is 23 months older but he also never set foot in AAA.

And then I simply asked Tim, his opinion on how those factors might change the thoughts on this.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you're the first to breathlessly tell people to temper their expectations about Rizzo, but then throw out Chris Davis as if his current line this season is even remotely sustainable. You really think that .1098 OPS is something to count on?

[neely crenshaw]

So you're the first to breathlessly tell people to temper their expectations about Rizzo, but then throw out Chris Davis as if his current line this season is even remotely sustainable. You really think that .1098 OPS is something to count on?

 

Actually I looked at his last year stats .270 avg, .501 SLG and .827 OPS, which were slightly better than Rizzo last year. Did you look at anything other than this season?

If you had then you would know his Minor league totals that are much better than Rizzo's...his OPS was very steady at every level...averaging.971 in the minors, his lowest ever was .876-which is better than any year Rizzo had before AAA.

Davis had 5 of 6 season he hit above .300, Rizzo had 2of 6(both PCL) above .300.

So why would his output be less sustainable than Rizzo's? If anything it shows they are more sustainable.

For the record I never said Rizzo's stats weren't sustainable, my worry is that there isn't going to be the growth that we hope for.

 

Also I am trying to show Goldschmidt or Davis is better, but I would guess that Baltimore and Arizona think they have something just as special as we so.

Edited May 7, 2013 by neely crenshaw

[jersey cubs fan]

So you're the first to breathlessly tell people to temper their expectations about Rizzo, but then throw out Chris Davis as if his current line this season is even remotely sustainable. You really think that .1098 OPS is something to count on?

 

Actually I looked at his last year stats .270 avg, .501 SLG and .827 OPS, which were slightly better than Rizzo last year. Did you look at anything other than this season?

If you had then you would know his Minor league totals that are much better than Rizzo's..

 

Yes, he was awesome his 2nd, 3rd and 4th time through AAA, in his mid - 20s.

[neely crenshaw]

He's 27 now in his 3rd season up. So if 22,23 and 24 are mid 20's then ok.

at 22 he hit .342 .405 .696 1.086 in his first season in AAA.

He played 1 full season at AAA, and parts of 3 others -a 226 total games, Rizzo played 163 AAA games. He played 6 minor league seasons 472 total games, Rizzo played 6 Minor league seasons 445 total games. So was it the extra 60 games at AAA, or the extra 27 minor league games that make the difference?

 

Probably should factor in that he was in the Rangers organization, and they were contending not rebuilding. They also had guys like Micheal Young, Mike Napoli, Justin Smoak and Mitch Moreland who were playing first, while we had Lahair. A little different circumstance.

Rizzo's age may allow from his potential growth but to say but it doesn't say Davis is going to fall off. If anything it says that while he may not grow, he probably won't drop either.

Edited May 7, 2013 by neely crenshaw

[SABR Gamer]

So you're the first to breathlessly tell people to temper their expectations about Rizzo, but then throw out Chris Davis as if his current line this season is even remotely sustainable. You really think that .1098 OPS is something to count on?

 

Not a big deal, but a pet peeve of mine when people write a 1.098 OPS as .1098. Unless you are making fun of neely, which is very possible, and if that is the case then carry on.

[neely crenshaw]

So you're the first to breathlessly tell people to temper their expectations about Rizzo, but then throw out Chris Davis as if his current line this season is even remotely sustainable. You really think that .1098 OPS is something to count on?

 

Not a big deal, but a pet peeve of mine when people write a 1.098 OPS as .1098. Unless you are making fun of neely, which is very possible, and if that is the case then carry on.

 

Wow, transpose a decimal point one time and it never goes away.

I guess if you can't argue the point, then bring up typing skills.

[SABR Gamer]

So you're the first to breathlessly tell people to temper their expectations about Rizzo, but then throw out Chris Davis as if his current line this season is even remotely sustainable. You really think that .1098 OPS is something to count on?

 

Not a big deal, but a pet peeve of mine when people write a 1.098 OPS as .1098. Unless you are making fun of neely, which is very possible, and if that is the case then carry on.

 

Wow, transpose a decimal point one time and it never goes away.

I guess if you can't argue the point, then bring up typing skills.

 

There is nothing to argue with you. You are barely coherent and when I brought up wOBA your response was about OBP, then when you are corrected you still didn't respond to what I said about his wOBA. I'll consider responding when you say something worthy of a response.

[neely crenshaw]

I misread it but if you'd like an argument for it here goes.

Small sample size...Fangraphs themselves say 3 seasons of data is good place to start-32 games so far this season is great but has a ways to go to be accurate. At his current output he would need to hit in the neighborhood of 50 hrs to keep his wOBA at this level. I don't think anyone put him in that category for this season. Obviously as his average goes up, and more doubles happen, it can balance it out for fewer home runs.

 

They also do not take into account hitter friendly parks, which wrigley is.

 

Rizzo's career wOBA for all levels is .334 and that is with truly outrageous stats in 2 seasons of AAA where he was well over 100 points higher than his average.

 

He does have 4 seasons above that level, 2 at AAA and 2 at lower levels, so that's a good sign.

Rizzo's age also gives hope for growth.

fangraphs projects him at .368 which would be a step up from last year but not quite where he is at currently.

How's that?

[Guest]

Rizzo's wOBA at the MLB level is .334, not all levels. His MiLB wOBA was .396. And that .334 is bogged down by the .248 he had in San Diego, which clearly isn't very representative anymore, given his .360 wOBA in 500+ MLB PAs for the Cubs.

[neely crenshaw]

Rizzo's wOBA at the MLB level is .334, not all levels. His MiLB wOBA was .396. And that .334 is bogged down by the .248 he had in San Diego, which clearly isn't very representative anymore, given his .360 wOBA in 500+ MLB PAs for the Cubs.

Ok, I see that. I just took the totals at the bottom as being all levels. That's usually the case with most career stat lines, or it's the clearly mark minors and majors. San Diego being a terrible hitter park, (especially power hitters) had to hurt his wOBA also. That .360 would be in line with the 2013 projections, which like I said would be a nice step up.

[Bull]

he seems to be doing ok.

[UMFan83]

Slash stats in his last 15 games:

 

.448/.508/.690/1.198

[Sammy Sofa]

Slash stats in his last 15 games:

 

.448/.508/.690/1.198

 

http://www.offoffoff.com/film/2002/images/autofocus.jpg

[Guest]

also, that smile