Random Cubs Musings

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If we aren't willing to pay aspirationally, and we aren't willing to pay for past performance, there's not a lot left.

 

I don't think Samardzija wants to re-sign.

[XZero771679666304]

Javy would have to absolutely light the world on fire (like on an unprecedented level) to get anything but a cup of coffee in September. If he rebounds and does to AAA what he did to AA in the second half last year, the best case scenario I see is maybe a week in late September and with a good ST, breaking camp with the team next spring.

 

However, unless he keeps struggling well into the summer, I don't see them holding him off until June/July of next year just to avoid starting his clock.

[jersey cubs fan]

It would fit in with his development path so far though. Struggles for two months, figures something out, and then destroys a league for 1.5-2 months. My guess is that he'll be up in September, unless he has an absolutely terrible year in AAA.

But that is a ridiculously aggressive path and this front office has at spoken about wanting guys to get full seasons at each level. They also aren't in contention so they would be wasting his cheapest pre-arb years while losing.

 

I don't see them wanting him up unless he absolutely makes them look like idiots for keeping him down. His terrible start has prevented that from being an issue.

[XZero771679666304]

My point is that if they think he is ready for MLB in July or August, I don't think they'd prefer to wait until weeks/months into next year (and delay his development at the major league level) just to extend his clock yet another year. Especially not if this team plays like a competitive team as this year goes on (and Castro and Rizzo continue to be great).

 

The sooner he gets his struggles out of the way, the sooner he can help the MLB team win games.

 

I might be wrong, but what you're saying makes it sound to me like you think that going into this year, they'd have preferred that he not make his way to the majors until 2015 so that they can get that extra year. I don't think that's true at all.

To be clear, that is exactly what I thought going into the year.

 

"Thinking he is ready" is a nebulous concept. It is almost June and his season has been terrible so far. I don't see how a great month or two will suddenly convince anybody that he has to be in the majors and is just wasting his time in AAA.

It would fit in with his development path so far though. Struggles for two months, figures something out, and then destroys a league for 1.5-2 months. My guess is that he'll be up in September, unless he has an absolutely terrible year in AAA.

 

It does, but he hasn't struggled this badly or for quite this long before. But he is showing signs that he's finally adjusting to the different approach AAA pitchers are taking with him. If he does fully, I don't think there is much point in keeping him in AAA. But it will take the rest of the season to bear all that out, probably.

[Guest]

It would fit in with his development path so far though. Struggles for two months, figures something out, and then destroys a league for 1.5-2 months. My guess is that he'll be up in September, unless he has an absolutely terrible year in AAA.

But that is a ridiculously aggressive path and this front office has at spoken about wanting guys to get full seasons at each level. They also aren't in contention so they would be wasting his cheapest pre-arb years while losing.

 

I don't see them wanting him up unless he absolutely makes them look like idiots for keeping him down. His terrible start has prevented that from being an issue.

 

I truly think that was just lip service to delay Rizzo's call up. I don't think they've really acted at all like that.

 

Once they dominate for a while, they promote them. Would've happened with Almora and Soler last year, too.

[jersey cubs fan]

It would fit in with his development path so far though. Struggles for two months, figures something out, and then destroys a league for 1.5-2 months. My guess is that he'll be up in September, unless he has an absolutely terrible year in AAA.

But that is a ridiculously aggressive path and this front office has at spoken about wanting guys to get full seasons at each level. They also aren't in contention so they would be wasting his cheapest pre-arb years while losing.

 

I don't see them wanting him up unless he absolutely makes them look like idiots for keeping him down. His terrible start has prevented that from being an issue.

 

I truly think that was just lip service to delay Rizzo's call up. I don't think they've really acted at all like that.

 

Once they dominate for a while, they promote them. Would've happened with Almora and Soler last year, too.

 

The lip service regarding Rizzo is just more proof that they are likely to treat others the same.

[Guest]

Who are the likely callups this year to be excited about? Alcantara and Hendricks?

 

Alcantara might come up in September. Hendricks whenever a pitcher is traded (hopefully they don't just plus Villanueva in the rotation instead).

 

I'd add Vizcaino to your list.

 

Hendricks isn't on the 40 man, I'm skeptical that he gets called up. I'd put odds on it being Villanueva, Rusin, Grimm, maybe a guy they get in return from a trade, even Wada I could see getting added before Hendricks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hendricks is literally the only prospect simultaneously being awesome at AAA, and he'll have a full year there before the end of the year. Surely he's getting called up.

[jersey cubs fan]

Who are the likely callups this year to be excited about? Alcantara and Hendricks?

 

Alcantara might come up in September. Hendricks whenever a pitcher is traded (hopefully they don't just plus Villanueva in the rotation instead).

 

I'd add Vizcaino to your list.

 

Hendricks isn't on the 40 man, I'm skeptical that he gets called up. I'd put odds on it being Villanueva, Rusin, Grimm, maybe a guy they get in return from a trade, even Wada I could see getting added before Hendricks.

Being on the 40 man probably won't be an issue at the end of this summer. There are plenty of candidates to be removed.

[Guest]

Who are the likely callups this year to be excited about? Alcantara and Hendricks?

 

Alcantara might come up in September. Hendricks whenever a pitcher is traded (hopefully they don't just plus Villanueva in the rotation instead).

 

I'd add Vizcaino to your list.

I'd add Rivero and Wada, even though he's not a true prospect.

[Guest]

Who are the likely callups this year to be excited about? Alcantara and Hendricks?

 

Alcantara might come up in September. Hendricks whenever a pitcher is traded (hopefully they don't just plus Villanueva in the rotation instead).

 

I'd add Vizcaino to your list.

 

Hendricks isn't on the 40 man, I'm skeptical that he gets called up. I'd put odds on it being Villanueva, Rusin, Grimm, maybe a guy they get in return from a trade, even Wada I could see getting added before Hendricks.

Being on the 40 man probably won't be an issue at the end of this summer. There are plenty of candidates to be removed.

 

That said, TT is right that Wada is probably ahead of Hendricks in terms of who gets called up.

[Clem Fandango]

If we go 33-31 or so through July 30th, do we necessarily trade Shark?

 

I believe that will still be the preferred option, yes.

 

Yeah, if he continues to put up these numbers, not only does it look more and more like the Cubs get a great return, but he'll likely ask for even more money than the Cubs are willing to spend. If he was asking for more in the offseason, he'll surely be asking for even more now. He's looking like a $120+mm contract guy right now. Obviously no clue if he gets that from someone, but I doubt the Cubs want to play that game when they can get top tier guys for him now that cost them nothing.

 

EDIT: Crap, started this like 30 minutes ago... lots of talk since then, lol

[Guest]

Being on the 40 man probably won't be an issue at the end of this summer. There are plenty of candidates to be removed.

 

I guess it depends on the timing. Beeler is the only *obvious* removal, while several others wouldn't hurt at all but would also be giving up on some level of talent or leaving a position thin(Jackson, Szczur, Rusin, Watkins). Fujikawa and maybe McDonald should be coming off the 60-day DL at some point. Samardzija could be traded, but it's a near-guarantee that at least one 40-man guy comes back in return, very likely 2-3. Hammel is a near lock to be dealt, but if recent past holds, they'll get 40 man guys for him too. There's a bunch of potential FA that could be sold off(Villanueva, Veras, Schierholtz, Bonifacio) and a few more with a year+ that could go(Russell, Sweeney, Ruggiano, Barney), but all but Bonifacio have been horrific so I'm not sure if any will be really dealt. Those guys could be waived I guess, but in this instance I have a hard time seeing it happen just to make room for Hendricks.

[KingCubsFan]

It would fit in with his development path so far though. Struggles for two months, figures something out, and then destroys a league for 1.5-2 months. My guess is that he'll be up in September, unless he has an absolutely terrible year in AAA.

But that is a ridiculously aggressive path and this front office has at spoken about wanting guys to get full seasons at each level. They also aren't in contention so they would be wasting his cheapest pre-arb years while losing.

 

I don't see them wanting him up unless he absolutely makes them look like idiots for keeping him down. His terrible start has prevented that from being an issue.

The whole "year in AAA" thing was just an excuse to delay Rizzo and see if they could get a hot start from LaHair and trade him. They don't really believe it.

[jersey cubs fan]

It would fit in with his development path so far though. Struggles for two months, figures something out, and then destroys a league for 1.5-2 months. My guess is that he'll be up in September, unless he has an absolutely terrible year in AAA.

But that is a ridiculously aggressive path and this front office has at spoken about wanting guys to get full seasons at each level. They also aren't in contention so they would be wasting his cheapest pre-arb years while losing.

 

I don't see them wanting him up unless he absolutely makes them look like idiots for keeping him down. His terrible start has prevented that from being an issue.

The whole "year in AAA" thing was just an excuse to delay Rizzo and see if they could get a hot start from LaHair and trade him. They don't really believe it.

 

They do believe in holding down costs.

[Guest]

Didn't notice this before Brett pointed it out today, but ESPN's playoff odds have the Cubs with a 19% chance. lol wtf

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

[Guest]

Also, this:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

 

Sigh.

[Soul]

maybe espn's chance of the making the playoffs takes into account some of the differences.

[SouthSideRyan]

A month ago I thought 0% chance Samardzija wasn't traded. Now I think it's maybe like 5% that they become convinced that he is taking the next step and are willing to pay him closer to what he wants.

 

They'll be willing to pay him closer to what he wanted before the season started. That doesn't mean they'll be any closer.

[sneakypower]

Also, this:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

 

Sigh.

omg, the A's

[SouthSideRyan]

Re: Baez, as much as I find it extremely unlikely he is called up this year, I find it even more unlikely that he'd be called up just for September.

[SouthSideRyan]

Who are the likely callups this year to be excited about? Alcantara and Hendricks?

 

Alcantara might come up in September. Hendricks whenever a pitcher is traded (hopefully they don't just plus Villanueva in the rotation instead).

 

I'd add Vizcaino to your list.

 

Hendricks isn't on the 40 man, I'm skeptical that he gets called up. I'd put odds on it being Villanueva, Rusin, Grimm, maybe a guy they get in return from a trade, even Wada I could see getting added before Hendricks.

Being on the 40 man probably won't be an issue at the end of this summer. There are plenty of candidates to be removed.

 

That said, TT is right that Wada is probably ahead of Hendricks in terms of who gets called up.

 

Well that would be terribly disappointing. He's pretty much the only thing I was looking forward to for the last 2 months of the season.

[Schwarber Fan]

Not that this season was going anywhere but there have been 3 "defining" games...

 

The "birthday" loss to Arizona, the Sunday Night baseball loss to St. Louis, and today's game.

 

All 3 had the chance to result in either a three/four game winning streak or sweep. I'm a big believer in the team "feeling good" to finish a series. They hit a slide after the previous two losses and I fully expect the same thing going into San Diego.

[Sammy Sofa]

Not that this season was going anywhere but there have been 3 "defining" games...

 

The "birthday" loss to Arizona, the Sunday Night baseball loss to St. Louis, and today's game.

 

All 3 had the chance to result in either a three/four game winning streak or sweep. I'm a big believer in the team "feeling good" to finish a series. They hit a slide after the previous two losses and I fully expect the same thing going into San Diego.

 

http://www.oldrow.net/attachments/this-fucking-guy-gif.881/

[Hawk4Hall]

Meh. This team could win 10 in a row and we'd all know they still suck. The roster just isn't very good and that's not hard to tell.

 

Until the young guys come up and/or Ricketts decides to open up the wallet some the Cubs will continue to suck. Castro and Rizzo are the only offensive players worth a damn and the pitching staff is leaky outside Shark, Wood, and Hammel.