Random Cubs Musings

[Hairyducked Idiot]

8-9 million in surplus value per year, in a conservative estimate, isn't exactly a small amount.

 

It's hard to call that a conservative projection for a guy currently underplaying his contract by $6m or so.

 

If Tampa wanted Castro in a Price trade, I wouldn't mind.

[Guest]

8-9 million in surplus value per year, in a conservative estimate, isn't exactly a small amount.

 

It's hard to call that a conservative projection for a guy currently underplaying his contract by $6m or so.

 

If Tampa wanted Castro in a Price trade, I wouldn't mind.

 

So you think Castro is going to struggle to be much more than a league average SS for the remaining 6 years of his deal? I can't agree.

 

Price specifically is going to make something like 2/35 and probably offer about 45 million in value. He's the poster child for reputation exceeding his production, and he had an arm injury this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This is why I hate $/WAR analysis sometimes. Sure, I think Castro has a good chance to go back to being a win or something better than average forever. I don't necessarily think I should value that the same as someone being really, really good for a smaller number of years.

[Guest]

This is why I hate $/WAR analysis sometimes. Sure, I think Castro has a good chance to go back to being a win or something better than average forever. I don't necessarily think I should value that the same as someone being really, really good for a smaller number of years.

 

That's fine, but pick someone who actually may be really, really good. In that example you're essentially saying "I think there's a good chance Castro becomes a 3 win SS for half a decade at half of market value, but I wouldn't mind trading him for 2 years of a 4 win SP getting paid closer to market value".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Dang it, you got me. I always forget David Price isn't as good as his reputation.

[Guest]

Dang it, you got me. I always forget David Price isn't as good as his reputation.

 

At least you remember what hand he throws with. And that he's not Japanese.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Dang it, you got me. I always forget David Price isn't as good as his reputation.

 

At least you remember what hand he throws with. And that he's not Japanese.

 

I thought he was Korean but pitched in the Japanese league.

[Guest]

Dang it, you got me. I always forget David Price isn't as good as his reputation.

 

And that's part of why it's so difficult to find a match for Castro. He's such a good bet to provide a baseline of value at a bargain that there are only so many players that it makes sense to trade him for that the other team would remotely listen to offers for. Doing a quick scan of leaderboards you can maybe see something around guys like Mauer, CarGo, or maybe Adam Jones depending on how the dollars worked out and how much you believe in them personally. On the pitching side there's always Felix, and maybe Sale if the Sox blow it up, but other than that you quickly get into the territory of guys who either stand no chance of getting dealt or who don't project to be much different than Castro.

[Tyrant]

Is there any recent history of guys like Castro starting off strong, having a huge setback like this season and then bouncing back? His age makes him a bit tougher to compare to others, I realize.

 

There are guys who have mostly sucked for a few years and then gotten good, like Alex Gordon. But I'm trying to think of bounceback types like we hope Castro will be.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Jason Heyward?

[jersey cubs fan]

Is there any recent history of guys like Castro starting off strong, having a huge setback like this season and then bouncing back? His age makes him a bit tougher to compare to others, I realize.

 

There are guys who have mostly sucked for a few years and then gotten good, like Alex Gordon. But I'm trying to think of bounceback types like we hope Castro will be.

 

Robinson Cano was pretty worthless one year.

[Sammy Sofa]

Jason Heyward?

 

Heyward has fluctuated between being a good/useful player and awesome. Castro has now fluctuated between good and suck.

[davell]

Matt Kemp has been hurt this year, hell, he may never be the same again. But when he was awesome, he sandwiched a 0.1 WAR in between a 5.0 and an 8.4.

[Guest]

Justin Upton? Though his bad was never Castro bad.

[Sammy Sofa]

Hell, go by BR and they have it as a -1.1 WAR season between a 4.8 and an 8.1.

 

Wow, what the hell happened that year? His offensive output really dropped off, but his value was REALLY dragged down by an insane -3.6 dWAR.

[Andy]

Jason Heyward?

As a Heyward fantasy team owner, I would say he's back to the 'setback' part of his career, though he's been much better lately.

[Guest]

CHICAGO -- The Cubs were expected to face a penalty for overspending in the international player market, but Theo Epstein said that's part of their plan.

 

"We don't see it as much of a penalty," said Epstein, president of baseball operations. "We budgeted for it with respect to the 100 percent tax. Next year, we'll spread our money around with some pitching instead of going after the large investments. We like the large investments this year."

 

"In Bryant's case, we wanted him to shake the rust off in short-season ball and get him adjusted to what life in pro baseball is like," said Theo Epstein, Cubs president of baseball operations. "He started out a little rough, that 0-for-5 [in first game with] five [strikeouts], but it was just a matter of getting his timing back. For the last week or so, he's just been locked in. ... He had nothing much left to do at that level."

 

Bryant, ranked No. 4 among the Cubs' Top 20 prospects, was named the Northwest League Player of the Week on Monday, going 9-for-17 with three doubles, one triple, a home run and five RBIs in five games.

 

The Cubs wanted Jeimer Candelario to continue to get regular playing time at third base at low A Kane County, plus Daytona is headed for the playoffs, which is also why Bryant was added along with Vogelbach, ranked No. 11 on the Top Prospects list.

 

"[Vogelbach] has been pretty consistent driving the baseball and getting on base, and he's working hard on his defense," Epstein said. "We felt it made sense for him to move up at this time."

 

Also, looks like they've pegged a few guys to convert to catchers:

The Cubs are lacking impact players at the catching position in the Minor Leagues. Epstein said they have talked about converting a few kids to catcher, and have targeted three players. That will begin this fall during instructional league.

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130813&content_id=56866422&notebook_id=56865664&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc&tcid=tw_article_56866422

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

They were trying to convert Bruno before the season this year. Wonder if that's still on the table.

[imb]

Jason Heyward?

As a Heyward fantasy team owner, I would say he's back to the 'setback' part of his career, though he's been much better lately.

 

be sure and credit @AngryAndyR

[davell]

They were trying to convert Bruno before the season this year. Wonder if that's still on the table.

With him coming off TJS, I doubt it. Maybe Villanueva? Solid arm at 3B, blocked by a myriad of options.....Same with Gioskar Amaya. Although I'm not sure Amaya would have the arm strength.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

They were trying to convert Bruno before the season this year. Wonder if that's still on the table.

With him coming off TJS, I doubt it. Maybe Villanueva? Solid arm at 3B, blocked by a myriad of options.....Same with Gioskar Amaya. Although I'm not sure Amaya would have the arm strength.

 

I didn't even know what Bruno's injury was, oops.

 

Can't believe they'd try to convert an upper-level guy like Villanueva.

[davell]

They were trying to convert Bruno before the season this year. Wonder if that's still on the table.

With him coming off TJS, I doubt it. Maybe Villanueva? Solid arm at 3B, blocked by a myriad of options.....Same with Gioskar Amaya. Although I'm not sure Amaya would have the arm strength.

 

I didn't even know what Bruno's injury was, oops.

 

Can't believe they'd try to convert an upper-level guy like Villanueva.

I thought about that, along with the fact he's already on the 40 man. I guess that one's a stretch. Candelario, maybe?

[Cubswin11]

They were trying to convert Bruno before the season this year. Wonder if that's still on the table.

With him coming off TJS, I doubt it. Maybe Villanueva? Solid arm at 3B, blocked by a myriad of options.....Same with Gioskar Amaya. Although I'm not sure Amaya would have the arm strength.

 

I didn't even know what Bruno's injury was, oops.

 

Can't believe they'd try to convert an upper-level guy like Villanueva.

I don't want it to happen, but Jeimer would seem to be an okay/logical choice. Given his age, being blocked by multiple guys, wanting to find a place for his bat to play as he advances with potential other 3B (Bryant/Baez, Villanueva, etc.). etc..

[pitchcs]

They were trying to convert Bruno before the season this year. Wonder if that's still on the table.

 

Bizarre-o Biggio?

[pitchcs]

They were trying to convert Bruno before the season this year. Wonder if that's still on the table.

With him coming off TJS, I doubt it. Maybe Villanueva? Solid arm at 3B, blocked by a myriad of options.....Same with Gioskar Amaya. Although I'm not sure Amaya would have the arm strength.

 

I didn't even know what Bruno's injury was, oops.

 

Can't believe they'd try to convert an upper-level guy like Villanueva.

I don't want it to happen, but Jeimer would seem to be an okay/logical choice. Given his age, being blocked by multiple guys, wanting to find a place for his bat to play as he advances with potential other 3B (Bryant/Baez, Villanueva, etc.). etc..

 

Yeesh, I dunno about that.

 

Trade seems much more logical.