Random Cubs Musings

[Guest]

I remember about a year ago there being reports from unnamed scouts that 2B would be the better position for Castro and that Baez could handle SS, for whatever that's worth.

 

But I think Baez would have to really force the issue to bump Castro off SS, or for Castro to have a sustained DL stay. And with Castro at SS, I'd think Baez at 3B would be better than 2B with his arm. But if you needed a 2B and Bryant can handle 3B, you put Baez at 2B.

 

What's Bryant's best case? Start of 2015 season with Sept 2014 call-up? That seems to be Baez' right now, which seems a little strange to me, given their age differences.

[Guest]

I remember about a year ago there being reports from unnamed scouts that 2B would be the better position for Castro and that Baez could handle SS, for whatever that's worth.

 

But I think Baez would have to really force the issue to bump Castro off SS, or for Castro to have a sustained DL stay. And with Castro at SS, I'd think Baez at 3B would be better than 2B with his arm. But if you needed a 2B and Bryant can handle 3B, you put Baez at 2B.

 

What's Bryant's best case? Start of 2015 season with Sept 2014 call-up? That seems to be Baez' right now, which seems a little strange to me, given their age differences.

 

That would be super aggressive. If all goes well, I think Bryant starts next year in Daytona, gets bumped midseason to Tennessee and gets to the big leagues late in 2015 (basically a year behind Baez's schedule).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm super intrigued and curious by what we might see from the bullpen in 2014. This year it's yet again been historically awful, but organizationally it seems as if we are stockpiling interesting relief arms for 2014.

 

By fWAR, we're 28th in MLB at -0.6 and 3 wins behind league average.

 

By net WPA, which I think does a better job of measuring the impact of bullpen performance, the Cubs are at -4.97, dead 30th and 7 wins behind the league average. If we had a league average bullpen, we'd be 3 games out of a playoff spot. (The Pirates are No. 1 at +8.61, meaning that bullpen performance makes up 13.5 of the 16 games that separate the Cubs from the best record in baseball).

 

Thanks to a combination of trading, international signings and emergence, I think for 2014 we might finally be hitting that critical mass of pitching that we've been missing.

 

Besides the usual complement of fringey guys who are trying to escape Iowa on more than an emergency basis, we've got:

 

Guys who are probably useful MLB pitchers and already here- Russell, Strop, Villanueva

 

Guys who will need to be split between the MLB rotation, Iowa rotation and MLB bullpen- Arrieta, Hendricks, Cabrera, Rusin, Grimm, possibly Neil Ramirez.

 

Guys whose health is in question for 2014 but might be good- Lim, Vizcaino

 

Live arms in the lower minors who could conceivably shoot up quickly: Rivero, Rosscup

 

How many good relief pitchers would we need to target in the offseason before we could comfortably project a decent bullpen? Two? One? Zero? Or am I just getting too intrigued by another collection of future Bowdens and Zychs and Camps?

[Illini Iceman]

I'm super intrigued and curious by what we might see from the bullpen in 2014. This year it's yet again been historically awful, but organizationally it seems as if we are stockpiling interesting relief arms for 2014.

 

By fWAR, we're 28th in MLB at -0.6 and 3 wins behind league average.

 

By net WPA, which I think does a better job of measuring the impact of bullpen performance, the Cubs are at -4.97, dead 30th and 7 wins behind the league average. If we had a league average bullpen, we'd be 3 games out of a playoff spot. (The Pirates are No. 1 at +8.61, meaning that bullpen performance makes up 13.5 of the 16 games that separate the Cubs from the best record in baseball).

 

Thanks to a combination of trading, international signings and emergence, I think for 2014 we might finally be hitting that critical mass of pitching that we've been missing.

 

Besides the usual complement of fringey guys who are trying to escape Iowa on more than an emergency basis, we've got:

 

Guys who are probably useful MLB pitchers and already here- Russell, Strop, Villanueva

 

Guys who will need to be split between the MLB rotation, Iowa rotation and MLB bullpen- Arrieta, Hendricks, Cabrera, Rusin, Grimm, possibly Neil Ramirez.

 

Guys whose health is in question for 2014 but might be good- Lim, Vizcaino

 

Live arms in the lower minors who could conceivably shoot up quickly: Rivero, Rosscup

 

How many good relief pitchers would we need to target in the offseason before we could comfortably project a decent bullpen? Two? One? Zero? Or am I just getting too intrigued by another collection of future Bowdens and Zychs and Camps?

 

You can add Fujikawa to the "Guys whose health is in question for 2014 but might be good".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Derp, yeah, he was supposed to be in that section

[Guest]

Rosscup is at AA, not the low minors.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Rosscup is at AA, not the low minors.

 

Maybe I phrased that poorly, but I meant guys for whom a normal promotion schedule wouldn't put them in line for the MLB in 2014, but are relievers so they could skip up quickly. That would include Rosscup.

[davell]

I kind of expect one Camp/Gregg type to make the team and one solid addition as well. Agree with the point though-its much easier to see the pen as something other than a total mess.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'd say two FA RP would do the trick, although I'm counting Villanueva as in the rotation, and signing one SP. though you could sign 2SP to put Villanueva as a swing guy again. Either way, probably 3 FA pitchers.

[Guest]

If you were to get one guy in the offseason you could reasonably count on to be a tentpole of the bullpen, I think that would be good enough. In FA, that probably looks like Benoit. Even if not, I think there's enough talent there that you'd be able to get to a quality pen, but you could drop some games in the early going while doing the necessary sifting to find out who would be the anchors of that pen.

[Warpticon]

It's crazy to think of how much different this team could have been had they signed one free agent...and for that free agent to be Jason Grilli.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I was taking a closer look at Junior Lake this evening and I have to admit there might be a tiny bit more there than I've been giving him credit for. The BABIP and HR/FB rates are still stupidly unsustainable, but he put up a 19.4% K rate in Iowa in 170 PAs and now he's at 20% in 70 PAs in the majors. Before this year, his best K rate was 22.1% at Daytona. So he's having the best contact year of his life at the highest levels he's ever faced, which is always a really nifty sign for a toolsy prospect.

 

ZIPS thinks he's a 260/298/399 hitter with a 27% K-rate in the majors. If he can keep that K-rate down to, say, 22% long-term. Take that ZIPS line and lower the K-rate 5% and it turns into 279/313/418. The league average MLB LF is 254/320/407.

 

So that's two big ifs. First, whether or not he can really keep his K-rate down to the low 20s. Second, whether or not his raw athleticism can translate into being a decent MLB outfielder.

 

But if both of those are the case, I can see him being a 2-win player out there.

 

The problem, though, is that we have two better outfielders already here for 2014 and it's the most obvious spot for us to add a position-player FA, so there's not really any room for him without making the team worse. He still probably needs to be used as a platoon caddy/4th outfielder for 2014.

[Schwarber Fan]

It's crazy to think of how much different this team could have been had they signed one free agent...and for that free agent to be Jason Grilli.

 

Do you think Grilli would have been the closer out of ST? I don't.

 

And the majority of the blown saves have been before the 9th anyway.

[Guest]

think about the 2 things you just typed

[Warpticon]

think about the 2 things you just typed

 

:lol: Beat me to it.

[rawaction]

It's crazy to think of how much different this team could have been had they signed one free agent...and for that free agent to be Jason Grilli.

 

Do you think Grilli would have been the closer out of ST? I don't.

 

And the majority of the blown saves have been before the 9th anyway.

Ill help. If Grilli would not have been given the 9th inning role, there wouldn't have been as many blown saves before the 9th because he would have been pitching in a lot of those situations.

[Rob]

I was taking a closer look at Junior Lake this evening and I have to admit there might be a tiny bit more there than I've been giving him credit for. The BABIP and HR/FB rates are still stupidly unsustainable, but he put up a 19.4% K rate in Iowa in 170 PAs and now he's at 20% in 70 PAs in the majors. Before this year, his best K rate was 22.1% at Daytona. So he's having the best contact year of his life at the highest levels he's ever faced, which is always a really nifty sign for a toolsy prospect.

 

ZIPS thinks he's a 260/298/399 hitter with a 27% K-rate in the majors. If he can keep that K-rate down to, say, 22% long-term. Take that ZIPS line and lower the K-rate 5% and it turns into 279/313/418. The league average MLB LF is 254/320/407.

 

So that's two big ifs. First, whether or not he can really keep his K-rate down to the low 20s. Second, whether or not his raw athleticism can translate into being a decent MLB outfielder.

 

But if both of those are the case, I can see him being a 2-win player out there.

 

The problem, though, is that we have two better outfielders already here for 2014 and it's the most obvious spot for us to add a position-player FA, so there's not really any room for him without making the team worse. He still probably needs to be used as a platoon caddy/4th outfielder for 2014.

 

I looked at some of that stuff yesterday. It was encouraging on the surface, but when I got to looking at contact rates and particularly swinging strike rates, I'm not at all convinced he'll be able to keep the K's lower than zips is suggesting.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Let's say it's spring 2014, and you are evaluating the relievers in camp. You need to pick two lefties out of the trio of Russell, Rosscup and Rusin.

 

How sure are we that Russell isn't the odd man out in that situation?

[Guest]

I'd need some pretty disparate results the rest of the year from Russell and Rusin before I took Rusin over Russell next year.

 

Also, send Rosscup to AAA already, does his K% have to hit 40% or something?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What made me throw it out there:

 

Rusin 2012-13: 50 MLB innings as a starter, 4.47 xFIP

 

Russell 2012-13: 108.1 MLB innings as a reliever, 4.48 xFIP

 

Russell's been really good at keeping his HR/FB% down to insane levels the last two seasons, but that's about the only difference. If Rusin gets a bit of an effectiveness boost from coming out of the pen, I could see him being better.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Rosscup and flip a [expletive] coin.

[champaignchris]

Only 2 runs scored in two games with 22 hits. That doesn't seem possible.

[KingCubsFan]

What made me throw it out there:

 

Rusin 2012-13: 50 MLB innings as a starter, 4.47 xFIP

 

Russell 2012-13: 108.1 MLB innings as a reliever, 4.48 xFIP

 

Russell's been really good at keeping his HR/FB% down to insane levels the last two seasons, but that's about the only difference. If Rusin gets a bit of an effectiveness boost from coming out of the pen, I could see him being better.

I think Raley could a bullpen option too at some point.

[neely crenshaw]

For all our "improved"play we are 2 games ahead of the Brewers and 5.5 ahead of the AAA Marlins, and behind the Mets.

[Sammy Sofa]

WHO OR WHAT DO YOU POSSIBLY THINK YOU'RE REPLYING TO.