Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-17-13

[davell]

So if Stephen Bruno because absolutely positively the best thing he can possibly be (by that I mean a scenario that maybe has a 5% chance of playing out - if that), what would he be?

 

Pedroia (offensively only, don't know anything about Bruno's defense)?

 

Being new to following prospects closely, I have no idea how excited to get about these later round college guys who rake in the lower levels.

Best case for Bruno is Pedroia, I guess. With his versatility, I could see a DeRosa type career for him, if things break VERY right, just not 100% right.

[rawaction]

Yeah, Geiger looked terrible at 3B when I saw him there last year. Stiff movements and bad hands, not surprised they've moved him to primarily 1B at Daytona.

Had 3 throwing errors in a game earlier this year. Had one more the next time he played there too and don't think he has been back since.

[Guest]

So if Stephen Bruno because absolutely positively the best thing he can possibly be (by that I mean a scenario that maybe has a 5% chance of playing out - if that), what would he be?

 

Pedroia (offensively only, don't know anything about Bruno's defense)?

 

Being new to following prospects closely, I have no idea how excited to get about these later round college guys who rake in the lower levels.

 

It's hard to be too fine because he's a college draftee with 50 PA's at full season ball, but based on what we know to this point, I think Bruno if he pans out is a Polanco-esque player. If he keeps hitting though that could become more of a Pedroia/Cirillo ceiling.

[craig]

..Jokisch works with 3 pitches - FB (87-91), change (best pitch) and a curve (I know he's dabbled with a cutter but I'm not sure how good it is). He seems to have the control to be a passable as a 4/5 starter and more successful than guys like Raley and Rusin.

 

Jokisch's results have been better than his reported stuff would suggest. He had pretty good K-rate at Daytona, and his ERA last year in AA was 2.9, although his K's were down. My recall is that he had a lot of excellent games, and a few clunkers. But my recall was also that I didn't think his profile was consistent; one game K's, then not; next game all groundouts; next game rather few.

 

I'm kinda guessing he's a 4-pitch guy, and between fastball/cutter/change/curve, he goes with whichever seem best on a given day. I wonder if Jokisch isn't a guy who doesn't have anything special, but has a consistency to not throw many mistakes?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Baez was apparently using a heavier bat today. It seems odd to me that he'd want to slow his bat down. He's having problems with committing too soon and pop-ups. His bat being "too" fast would presumably not cause those problems. Those are, weirdly enough, slow bat problems. But he homered and the BABIP luck started to turn for him today. I hope he has about eight more days just like it in the next two weeks. I'd like for him to learn to be more than a hacker, but being a great hacker would be preferable to a mediocre one.

 

Came across this study today that emphasized why I just can't shake the nagging concerns with Baez, as amazing as his ceiling and attitude are. It's one of the more counterintuitive facts in basbeall: Strikeout rate says little about your ability to hit a certain level of pitching, but it is very predictive of your ability to carry your hitting ability up to high levels.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates

 

The study looks at BA Top 100 hitting prospects from 1990 to 2007.

 

Out of those 524 prospects, 57% went on to at least 1500 PAs in the major leagues. Strikeout rate seemed to have a very high correlation with failure to reach that threshold.

 

K-rate Succes%

<10% 90%

<12% 79.0%

<14% 72.7%

<16.4% 68.2%

>16.4% 48.6%

>18% 43.4%

>20% 32.3%

>22% 23.3%

>24% 22.7%

 

Baez's minor league K rate is 22.8% going into tonight, and you can probably expect it to creep up as he faces more and more advanced pitching. I know the whiff concerns aren't anything new, but it's kind of interesting to see if codified like that.

[Guest]

So if Stephen Bruno because absolutely positively the best thing he can possibly be (by that I mean a scenario that maybe has a 5% chance of playing out - if that), what would he be?

 

Pedroia (offensively only, don't know anything about Bruno's defense)?

 

Being new to following prospects closely, I have no idea how excited to get about these later round college guys who rake in the lower levels.

 

It's hard to be too fine because he's a college draftee with 50 PA's at full season ball, but based on what we know to this point, I think Bruno if he pans out is a Polanco-esque player. If he keeps hitting though that could become more of a Pedroia/Cirillo ceiling.

 

Holy crap... I am shocked to find out that Polanco had a couple of 5 win seasons and a few 4 win. I'd take that, too.

[Guest]

Baez was apparently using a heavier bat today. It seems odd to me that he'd want to slow his bat down. He's having problems with committing too soon and pop-ups. His bat being "too" fast would presumably not cause those problems. Those are, weirdly enough, slow bat problems. But he homered and the BABIP luck started to turn for him today. I hope he has about eight more days just like it in the next two weeks. I'd like for him to learn to be more than a hacker, but being a great hacker would be preferable to a mediocre one.

 

Came across this study today that emphasized why I just can't shake the nagging concerns with Baez, as amazing as his ceiling and attitude are. It's one of the more counterintuitive facts in basbeall: Strikeout rate says little about your ability to hit a certain level of pitching, but it is very predictive of your ability to carry your hitting ability up to high levels.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates

 

The study looks at BA Top 100 hitting prospects from 1990 to 2007.

 

Out of those 524 prospects, 57% went on to at least 1500 PAs in the major leagues. Strikeout rate seemed to have a very high correlation with failure to reach that threshold.

 

K-rate Succes%

<10% 90%

<12% 79.0%

<14% 72.7%

<16.4% 68.2%

>16.4% 48.6%

>18% 43.4%

>20% 32.3%

>22% 23.3%

>24% 22.7%

 

Baez's minor league K rate is 22.8% going into tonight, and you can probably expect it to creep up as he faces more and more advanced pitching. I know the whiff concerns aren't anything new, but it's kind of interesting to see if codified like that.

 

I'd be interested to see that filtered to top prospects with a minimum MiLB OPS, to see how those percentages change when focused on prospects whose primarily value is in their bat/power.

 

EDIT: And also to filter out the Dave Kelton's of the world who show up on the Top 100 a time or two but never actually hit well as professionals

[CubColtPacer]

Baez was apparently using a heavier bat today. It seems odd to me that he'd want to slow his bat down. He's having problems with committing too soon and pop-ups. His bat being "too" fast would presumably not cause those problems. Those are, weirdly enough, slow bat problems. But he homered and the BABIP luck started to turn for him today. I hope he has about eight more days just like it in the next two weeks. I'd like for him to learn to be more than a hacker, but being a great hacker would be preferable to a mediocre one.

 

Came across this study today that emphasized why I just can't shake the nagging concerns with Baez, as amazing as his ceiling and attitude are. It's one of the more counterintuitive facts in basbeall: Strikeout rate says little about your ability to hit a certain level of pitching, but it is very predictive of your ability to carry your hitting ability up to high levels.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates

 

The study looks at BA Top 100 hitting prospects from 1990 to 2007.

 

Out of those 524 prospects, 57% went on to at least 1500 PAs in the major leagues. Strikeout rate seemed to have a very high correlation with failure to reach that threshold.

 

K-rate Succes%

<10% 90%

<12% 79.0%

<14% 72.7%

<16.4% 68.2%

>16.4% 48.6%

>18% 43.4%

>20% 32.3%

>22% 23.3%

>24% 22.7%

 

Baez's minor league K rate is 22.8% going into tonight, and you can probably expect it to creep up as he faces more and more advanced pitching. I know the whiff concerns aren't anything new, but it's kind of interesting to see if codified like that.

 

I'd be interested to see that filtered to top prospects with a minimum MiLB OPS, to see how those percentages change when focused on prospects whose primarily value is in their bat/power.

 

I'd agree with that. My feeling is that at least part of that is how major league teams use their benches. They tend to emphasize versatility and defense over hitting ability, and that makes it harder for mediocre sluggers who play corner spots to make his 1500 AB threshold.

 

That would also be another explanation for the high correlation between successful hitters in the majors and a high minor league strikeout rate. The sluggers have already been thinned out to a degree, so the ones who do get more than 1500 AB's tend to be the best of the best. While middle infielders who have low strikeout rates but are bad hitters tend to hang around for a long time for defensive reasons.

 

However, even if you look at the successes, Baez already has the 13th highest strikeout rate among all of them. So it's definitely something to be concerned about. I do dispute the thought though that his strikeout rate will likely rise as he progresses though the levels. While that is intuitive, I am not sure it works out for a high school prospect like Baez with so few plate appearances and who has been promoted fairly aggressively. I'm not sure if we know where Baez's strikeout numbers are going to go yet. There's too many variables involved to hazard a good guess.

[craig]

....Came across this study today that emphasized why I just can't shake the nagging concerns with Baez, ..

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates

 

....Strikeout rate seemed to have a very high correlation with failure to reach that threshold.

 

K-rate Succes%

<10% 90%

<12% 79.0%

<14% 72.7%

<16.4% 68.2%

>16.4% 48.6%

>18% 43.4%

>20% 32.3%

>22% 23.3%

>24% 22.7%

 

Baez's minor league K rate is 22.8% going into tonight, and you can probably expect it to creep up as he faces more and more advanced pitching. I know the whiff concerns aren't anything new, but it's kind of interesting to see if codified like that.

 

Thanks, kyle. Very interesting data. I agree with you, it supports the concerns about Baez's K-rates.

[mike2482]

I'm fairly new to following prospects, as well. I just found out today that I can listen to minor league game on my radio app, so I am going to start following more closely.

A guy I am interested in is Zeke DeVoss. What are the chances of him becoming a good prospect. I've noticed on the box scores that he walks quite a bit, and listening today, he seemed to play pretty good defense. Is he someone to get excited about?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm fairly new to following prospects, as well. I just found out today that I can listen to minor league game on my radio app, so I am going to start following more closely.

A guy I am interested in is Zeke DeVoss. What are the chances of him becoming a good prospect. I've noticed on the box scores that he walks quite a bit, and listening today, he seemed to play pretty good defense. Is he someone to get excited about?

 

Just out of curiosity, of which radio app do you speak?

[mike2482]

I'm fairly new to following prospects, as well. I just found out today that I can listen to minor league game on my radio app, so I am going to start following more closely.

A guy I am interested in is Zeke DeVoss. What are the chances of him becoming a good prospect. I've noticed on the box scores that he walks quite a bit, and listening today, he seemed to play pretty good defense. Is he someone to get excited about?

 

Just out of curiosity, of which radio app do you speak?

 

Tunein

[Guest]

http://www.thecubreporter.com/04172013/fitch-park-was-land-giants-today

 

Paul Blackburn and James Pugliese both started down in Arizona.

 

Not only is Frandy de la Rosa up in Arizona as davell mentioned yesterday, he's leading off for the AZL squad in instructs. Thinking back through recent years, the only under 18 Latin signing I can think of who made his pro debut in the US was Larry Suarez (while guys like Starlin Castro, Junior Lake, Arismendy Alcantara, Willson Contreras, Marco Hernandez, Gioskar Amaya, Jeimer Candelario and Carlos Penalver all started out in the DSL). Going back over a decade, Carlos Zambrano and Felix Pie also made ther pro debuts in stateside. So if de la Rosa stays in the US this summer, he's in pretty good company.

[Guest]

I'm fairly new to following prospects, as well. I just found out today that I can listen to minor league game on my radio app, so I am going to start following more closely.

A guy I am interested in is Zeke DeVoss. What are the chances of him becoming a good prospect. I've noticed on the box scores that he walks quite a bit, and listening today, he seemed to play pretty good defense. Is he someone to get excited about?

 

DeVoss has always had a great speed and patience but his hit tool has been lacking. That's what is keeping him down. But his speed, patience and positional versatility (he's a former 2B who could play there as a utility guy) means he could be a good bench player.

[toonsterwu]

So if Stephen Bruno because absolutely positively the best thing he can possibly be (by that I mean a scenario that maybe has a 5% chance of playing out - if that), what would he be?

 

Pedroia (offensively only, don't know anything about Bruno's defense)?

 

Being new to following prospects closely, I have no idea how excited to get about these later round college guys who rake in the lower levels.

 

His defense should be pretty solid. Haven't heard anything this year, but I'm still of the belief that had it not been for Chris Taylor, Stephen Bruno might've been drafted as a shortstop. He was very good at 3rd, which was the position he played at UVA on account of Werman being the steady hand at 2nd.

 

Offensively, I think he's got a bit more pop, and hence why I made the Pedroia comp last year, but I could see an argument that offensively, he might be more like Jose Altuve. It really comes down to how much pop you are thinking. I think he's changed his approach from his college days a bit, as at UVA, he was the number 3 hitter. I think he's a bit more focused on making contact now, but that's just eyeballing it.

[craig]

heh heh, to use a wish comp from old days, Pete Rose might be. Wasn't a power hitter, wasn't fast, wasn't real good defensively anywhere but was decent everywhere, thus he started at multiple positions over his career. But he was good at getting hits.

 

At least, that's the caricature for Rose. That's probably ridiculously unfair to Rose, though. He did have power, with 15 or more HR's 3 times (in an era where HR's were down), and seven straight years with 10 or more HR's. 160 career HR's. He also stole 198 bases, as many as 20 in a season, ten seasons with at least ten steals. So maybe he was really a 4-5 tools guy rather than the one tool hit-but-nothing else guy of his legend. OK, this was a worthless post.

 

But, I guess for Bruno it all depends on how much hitting he can do. If he can hit .300 and play acceptable defense, he's valuable and will have a long career, even if both Iso's are low.

[craig]

A good Bruno comp, as a hitter, might be Darwin Barney. Both are low-power guys who don't walk a lot.

*Bruno K's more in low minors than Barney does in majors.

*Barney hit 7 HR's/548 AB last year. Bruno has 3 HR's/301 AB at Boise/Daytona AB's. If anything those numbers actually favor Barney! So I don't see Bruno having a meaningfully superior amount of effective game HR power. And he's 5'9" and turning 23 this calendar year, so I don't anticipate much "filling out into more power" happening. Probably his present strength is pretty much what he'll have.

*XB power; Bruno has 31 XBH per 111 hits (28%); Barney last year had 37 XBH per 139 hits (27%). So they look roughly similar there.

*Both have tracked as low-walk guys. Bruno walked very rarely in college, although toonster has noted that his role may have contributed. Thus far his walk-rate has been decent (23 walks/301 AB), somewhat better than Barney (33 BB/548 AB)

*Bruno has been a tremendous BABIP guy so far, .433, between Boise and Daytona. Barney was .273. Obviously both are probably anomalous.

 

Obviously Barney doesn't seem like as upbeat a comp as Pedroia, but I don't mean that to be a downer on Bruno. An upgraded Barney could be a valuable player. If Barney added ten walks, an extra 2 HR's, and extra 5 doubles, and raised his BABIP from .273 to .330, none of those would greatly change the general profile of low-power-contact hitter, but a little better here and a little better there and you've got a pretty good hitter.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm fairly new to following prospects, as well. I just found out today that I can listen to minor league game on my radio app, so I am going to start following more closely.

A guy I am interested in is Zeke DeVoss. What are the chances of him becoming a good prospect. I've noticed on the box scores that he walks quite a bit, and listening today, he seemed to play pretty good defense. Is he someone to get excited about?

 

Just out of curiosity, of which radio app do you speak?

 

Tunein

 

Thanks

[toonsterwu]

I can sort of see the Bruno/Barney comparison, but two reasons why I didn't go that way -

 

a) Barney is a better infield defender. Coming up, I felt that a lot of Cubs fans under-rated his infield defense. If he was at short, I think he'd be an above average defender there. I remember another Cubs site, someone said he wasn't athletic and couldn't make plays, which befuddled me. Much as I like Bruno, I don't buy him as an elite defensive 2nd baseman, which Barney probably is.

 

b) Bruno's hit tool, at least, at the same point in their minor league tenures, was viewed better. I mean, the knock on Barney was always whether or not he would hit enough, even coming up.

 

But that also presumes that Bruno simply isn't feasting on raw, young arms, so the AA jump, offensively, will be critical. He probably needs consistent time at 2nd, which he looks like he will get this year, to make an accurate judgment on his defensive abilities there, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't average, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't above average (at least, potential-wise).

[Guest]

It's also worth noting that Barney's power last year was a pretty clear departure, he had 11 HR in over 1700 MiLB PA's. Bruno has also shown a far greater hit tool than Barney to this point as well.

[sneakypower]

Bruno's upside is a slow Ryan Freel with a hopefully longer life expectancy

 

next

[jersey cubs fan]

Bruno's upside is a slow Ryan Freel with a hopefully longer life expectancy

 

next

awesome

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I like the idea of 95th percentile projection or something replacing the idea of "ceiling."

 

I hate ceiling. It's so meaningless. If Sammy Sosa could hit 66 home runs, then basically everybody's ceiling is everything.

[Guest]

I'm not sure Ryan Freel ever hit .370 over 350 PAs, even in high school.

 

FWIW, Bruno leads the FSL in batting average by 17 points, 28 points over 3rd place

[sneakypower]

I'm not sure Ryan Freel ever hit .370 over 350 PAs, even in high school.

 

FWIW, Bruno leads the FSL in batting average by 17 points, 28 points over 3rd place

tell me what you honestly think his babip can be in the majors