The curious case of Logan Watkins

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Apologies if this was discussed in detail elsewhere(or maybe you just don't find it interesting), but with Watkins getting off to a good start it led me to take a closer look at how interesting his minor league progression was. I'll stick to his full seasons for the strength of the sample(500+ PAs at each full season level), and note that he's been age appropriate at each level: 20 at Peoria, 21 at Daytona, 22 at Tennessee, and now 23 at Iowa. Let's see each of his peripherals by year:

 

BB%

A-: 11.2%

A+: 8.8%

AA: 12.9%

 

Encouraging to see his best walk rate coming at the most advanced level, in the greatest number of PAs too. After tonight's walkfest, he has 8 BB in 41 PAs at Iowa.

 

K%

A-: 18.7%

A+: 19.3%

AA: 16.5%

 

Again with marked improvement after a slight step back at Daytona. Early Iowa returns are much worse on this front, but it is only 41 PA.

 

ISO

A-: .077

A+: .123

AA: .141

 

Steady improvement, with 20 2B, 11 3B, and 9 HR last year. Unsurprisingly the PCL has helped continue this trend with a .182 ISO thus far.

 

SB

A-: 19 SB, 66%

A+: 21 SB, 81%

AA: 28 SB, 80%

 

Watkins not only became more prolific on the bases, he's become more efficient too. He's 0 for 1 on the young Iowa season.

 

 

None of these are all that dramatic or surprising on their own. What strikes me is that Watkins has made strides in increasing walks, and lowering strikeouts, and increasing power, and being a greater weapon on the basepaths, all while progressing through full season levels. He even posted his highest fielding percentages at 2B and SS to boot.

 

All this is to say that I think Watkins the prospect is probably more valuable than we've given him credit for. He was a 21st round pick that didn't have a ton of fanfare(his draft day picture is him in football pads, IIRC), but he got the 4th highest bonus in the class, and BA rated him the Cubs' Best Athlete and Late Round Pick of 2008. With the improvements he's made, and the reports that he's a decent to good 2B defender and passable at SS, I think we have to consider him an MLB regular if he continues to hit at Iowa. It's not a huge difference from what he was considered before(a good utility candidate), but an important one, especially with Barney's future potentially in doubt as he hits arbitration.

[davell]

I'm a fan of Watkins. My main concern is if he'll hit enough to be an everyday guy, instead of the strong side of a platoon. That said, I do see him as a potential starter, even if utility guy is still more likely longterm. Hasn't he played a little CF at some point? Or its been talked about anyway. Whatever the case, I think he'll contribute more to the Cubs than Vitters will, over the course of time.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Absolutely. I've been resisting the bandwagon, but it's becoming harder to justify. He could easily be a starting middle infielder in 2014.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm actually quite surprised that he's in Iowa and Lillibridge and Gonzalez are on the big league club, especially with two of our projected starting infielders on the DL and ample playing time eventually. By June I'd like to see:

 

Good Bye

Lillibridge

Gonzalez

Clevenger

Trade Soriano, DeJesus, or even Hairston if we cant get anything of use, option/DFA Sappelt (not sure if he has options) if he can't start hitting a bit.

 

Hello

Barney

Stewart

Watkins

Sweeney

[craig]

This will be a key year for Watkins. The stats show progress; if he continues the progress this season, it's one thing. But the 3-year progression is largely perceived from the improvement last year. And that was largely built on a half-season of really good numbers. (There was little hint of progress early last year.) So he may be on a steady improvement track. But it could also be that he's been fairly flat and unimpressive, and that an unsustainable 2-month burst is skewing the graphs.

 

If he can show the progress he showed last summer is sustainable and he continues to improve, that will be really fun. So far so good.

 

The growth of some power last summer was huge for him, I think. He'd been kind of a Theriot, but adding some HR's added a bunch of numbers. Nice to be able to "use the whole field", including to the wall so that outfielders need to play him honest; and to "use the whole field" including the bleachers.

 

12 K's already is pretty tough, though. Not many low-power guys can sustain a .150-IsoD for long, and with 12K/33AB early, that's going to need to change. He's currently hitting .242, and not many .242-BA PCLers who can walk their way to good big-league careers. He'll need to not only walk but also hit.

[toonsterwu]

I think there is definitely solid evidence that Watkins has the potential to be a starting caliber 2nd baseman. The reason I've never gotten fully on the bandwagon, which seemed to roaring full-steam ahead this winter, is fairly simple. I'd like to see him become more consistent throughout the season. In his last two stops, in AA and A+, his numbers have been bolstered by hot 2nd half's (but primarily hot June/July months). You can point to his April 2011 as perhaps a Torreyes like anomaly, but he got off to a fairly slow start in 2012 as well.

 

I'm also curious if he can maintain the improved K rate that he showed last year.

[SABR Gamer]

Absolutely. I've been resisting the bandwagon, but it's becoming harder to justify. He could easily be a starting middle infielder in 2014.

 

I would think best case scenario is Barney have a strong season, trade him at peak value and let Watkins take over as the full time 2B next season.

[TruffleShuffle]

wasn't watkins a dual sport athlete coming out of high school and could have played college football? thought that was part of the reason he got a nice bonus. guess i wouldn't be all that surprised that an athletic guy who probably hadn't focused completely on baseball has improved steadily after turning pro.

[JockJones]

wasn't watkins a dual sport athlete coming out of high school and could have played college football? thought that was part of the reason he got a nice bonus. guess i wouldn't be all that surprised that an athletic guy who probably hadn't focused completely on baseball has improved steadily after turning pro.

I do know that he had signed at Wichita State (he's from Wichita) and was looking for a pretty decent bonus, in order to skip college.

[craig]

I do know that he had signed at Wichita State (he's from Wichita) and was looking for a pretty decent bonus, in order to skip college.

 

Yes and no. I don't think he's from Wichita, I think he's from a smaller community. He was the QB on his HS football team, the typical "best athlete in a small high school" guy who's the best at baseball and football, and probably basketball besides. As a football guy, his summer schedule was impacted by football practice. So in Kansas, spring maybe doesn't come that soon, and by July football practice is probably starting.

 

His college scholarship was definitely for baseball, and he knew baseball was his after-high school sport. Too small for football.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

He went to HS in Goddard, Kansas.

 

it is a suburb of Wichita, Kansas.[6] As of the 2010 census, the city population was 4,344