Who is the #45 Prospect for the Cubs? (run-off)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This is a tie-breaking run-off vote between Willson Contreras, Kyle Hendricks and Tim Saunders for the Cubs #45 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below. The runner up of the run-off vote will be the #46 prospect and the third place prospect in this run-off will be the #47 prospect. Also, please let me know if you want to keep going.

 

If someone convinces you that the other player should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Saturday.

 

Results so far:

 

#1: Javier Baez

#2: Jorge Soler

#3: Albert Almora

#4: Arodys Vizcaino

#5: Dan Vogelbach

#6: Brett Jackson

#7: Juan Paniagua

#8: Christian Villanueva

#9: Dillon Maples

#10: Josh Vitters

#11: Pierce Johnson

#12: Junior Lake

#13: Jeimer Candelario

#14: Duane Underwood

#15: Matt Szczur

#16: Arismendy Alcantara

#17: Ronald Torreyes

#18: Marco Hernandez

#19: Gioskar Amaya

#20: Alberto Cabrera

#21: Logan Watkins

#22: Rob Whitenack

#23: Barrett Loux

#24: Ben Wells

#25: Paul Blackburn

#26: Hector Rondon

#27: Tony Zych

#28: Jae-Hoon Ha

#29: Trey McNutt

#30: Steve Bruno

#31: Michael Jensen

#32: Trey Martin

#33: Tayler Scott

#34: Jose Arias

#35: Ryan McNeil

#36: Jose Rosario

#37: Shawon Dunston Jr.

#38: Nick Struck

#39: Austin Reed

#40: Reggie Golden

#41: Carlos Penalver

#42: Marcus Hatley

#43: Frandy de la Rosa

#44: Daury Torrez

[davell]

We're thru 47 after this, have to get to 50 now anyway. I'd go to 60, but I certainly understand if 50 is the cutoff.

[toonsterwu]

Don't particularly care for either 3. In a wait and see mode on Contreras' bat. Not completely sold that, stuff wise, I should care that much about Hendricks as compared to say, Loosen, or versus some of the lefties. As for Saunders, there's certainly some production, but skill wise, I'm still in a "prove to me you are more than a utility guy" mode right now. If he produces another year, and produces with some pop, I'd feel a bit more comfortable about giving him top 50 consideration.

 

Of those three, though, Contreras not only seems to have the highest ceiling/value, but he might also have the highest floor (if his defense is as good as suggested). As such, he gets the nod for me here.

[Rob]

Lets get to 50. We are close.

 

Oh, and Starling Peralta was returned. So he's probably a lock for the 48 spot.

[craig]

These are all interesting guys, I think.

 

Contreras.

1. Limited number of guys with big-league defensive tools at catcher.

2. The Cubs have a vacuum at catcher.

3. Anti-awful factor. It's too easy to get way behind the league at catcher. A guy who might be good-defense-OK-offense might not be exciting, but might provide some anti-awful protection.

4. Contreras is 20, offense might improve. Power, K's, walks, none were good, but none terrible either. With all the attention given to converting to catcher, he may not have given the requisite focus on his hitting. So I'm hoping that there will be progress as a 20-year-old hitter. The flip side is that full-season pitching is WAY better than short-season. Mediocre offense at Boise, Contreras might get just buried in full-season.

 

I don't see Saunders as ideally-suited to utility, because I think he's got a 2nd-base arm. 2nd-base arms either need to hit enough to start at 2B, or else they aren't that attractive as utility. Guys who can hit aren't easy to find, though, so if he can hit enough who knows. He looks pretty interesting as a hitter. Still, playing in low minors, he K'd a lot last year. Maybe just adjustment to pro ball, but might indicate some problems that will kill him at higher levels. I probably won't vote for him until we're well into the 50's.

 

Huge year for Hendricks. The present assumption is no stuff, just a college polish handling A-ball hitters, but no potential, and that may be right. (I wonder if there are arm issues, past or present.) Despite the questions about his stuff, somehow he had enough for 123K/147IP. Not awesome, but above average, particularly given the 123K/18BB ratio. If he struggle he may be forgotten by June. But if he can translate his no-walk, low-WHIP profile up another level, he may earn a closer look.

 

This won't sound exciting, but I could also imagine Hendricks perhaps ending up becoming a Shawn Camp type reliever. We assume relievers have to throw hard, but consistent strikes help get outs (and keep managers comfortable) in relief, too. A lot of games are lost in the 6th and 7th innings, so a guy who can throw consistent strikes can have a long career. Often managers keep the strike-throwing veterans with lesser arms over wilder, inconsistent guys.

[craig]

Cal, I want to vote for AJ Morris in the next vote. Low-walk/low-HR guys tend to work out well.

[Guest]

Cal, I want to vote for AJ Morris in the next vote. Low-walk/low-HR guys tend to work out well.

 

I'll add him next round.

[Tryptamine]

Lets get to 50. We are close.

 

Oh, and Starling Peralta was returned. So he's probably a lock for the 48 spot.

 

Wouldn't it be better to just leave him off? Putting him at 48 just because he was returned when in reality he'd be quite a bit higher seems to ruin of the integrity of the list. Granted it's not like we're taking this list all that seriously.

[davell]

Yeah, lets leave Peralta off. He'd have been much higher than this obviously.

[sweetpeteman]

We could do a poll that lists what spot Peralta should slot into and just move everyone below what spot wins down.

 

 

Ex: Peralta should be the #:

 

Top Ten

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Lower

 

 

 

Comments must list top ten spot or lower spot.

 

If top ten or lower win, do another poll or something.

 

(I'm not sure where people think Peralta should be, I was thinking somewhere 15-25, but CR or whoever can decide the range of the poll)

[davell]

Good idea. I'm for yhat as well. Rivero, according to Muskat, isn't quite signed yet, but with very limited info, I figure he'd be in our top 50 as well.

[craig]

We could do a poll that lists what spot Peralta should slot into and just move everyone below what spot wins down. ..

 

I'd have him late 30's or early 40's, around in that bunch with Rosario, Austin Reed, Reggie Golden, Hatley, Dunston, guys like that who are far distant, who may have some talent but haven't had it help them be good in low-minors yet.

[Guest]

I have him personally in my 20s. I think sweetpeteman's idea is pretty good. I'll start a poll in a bit.

[scarey]

I'm surprised to see the Contreras love. The only thing I've ever been overly impressed with was his bonus. I'm also surprised to hear people praise him for his defense. I thought I had heard his defense wasn't noteworthy. Also, I remember him playing around the infield a couple years ago which I assumed was an attempt to find him a better fit defensively than at catcher. Maybe I assumed wrong...

 

I know Hendricks will probably be lucky to have a John Koronka-esque career, but his K/BB ratio is intriguing and something to attach hope to. He's got my vote.

[toonsterwu]

I'm surprised to see the Contreras love. The only thing I've ever been overly impressed with was his bonus. I'm also surprised to hear people praise him for his defense. I thought I had heard his defense wasn't noteworthy. Also, I remember him playing around the infield a couple years ago which I assumed was an attempt to find him a better fit defensively than at catcher. Maybe I assumed wrong...

 

I know Hendricks will probably be lucky to have a John Koronka-esque career, but his K/BB ratio is intriguing and something to attach hope to. He's got my vote.

 

I could be mistaken right now, but I think Contreras signed as an IF, but they moved him to catcher. I voted for him not because I love him, but because I'm not enthused with the other choices (I actually changed one of my original votes over to Contreras to try and get this runoff, but again, more because I'm not enthused with Hendricks or Saunders).

 

As a total side note, I think, for safety's sake, we should go to 51. Seems to be a good chance we get there before final cuts, and so we should give ourselves some space in case something happens with Rondon (though I expect him here). I don't really care if we go further, but at a certain point, some votes will likely be colored by what happened this spring (for example, prior to this spring, I doubt many would've voted for Rusin ahead of Raley, but Raley hasn't gotten much discussion).

[Guest]

We have a two-way tie right now... Any more votes?

[toonsterwu]

Sorry if I made this a little more difficult Raisin, but I'm just not a big believer in ranking Saunders here (just not enough for me to vote for a guy like that in the top 50), so I'm switching over from Contreras to Hendricks, which forces a temporary tie between Hendricks/Saunders. If at some point, Contreras has surged ahead, he is still my preferred pick of the three.

[craig]

Sorry if I made this a little more difficult Raisin, but I'm just not a big believer in ranking Saunders here (just not enough for me to vote for a guy like that in the top 50), so I'm switching over from Contreras to Hendricks, which forces a temporary tie between Hendricks/Saunders. If at some point, Contreras has surged ahead, he is still my preferred pick of the three.

 

I'm doing the same as toonster. I switched my vote from Contreras to Hendricks to try to resolve the Hendricks/Saunders competition.