Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[Cubswin11]

I don't think he'd be held back for financial reasons. I just mean I figure he'll get a few token starts in the minors and then get called up very quickly.

 

Wouldn't those token starts take place this summer? Prior didn't pitch for the Cubs after the draft. I don't recall the story around his negotiations, or why he didn't start at all that summer. But part of the excuse for starting him in the minors the year after the draft was that he never pitched as a pro.

How many innings will he be at by the end of the college season?

130-150ish, I think. He has 70 right now and they have 20 games left (so he probably has 5-6 starts in there)+CWS.

[Guest]

I don't think he'd be held back for financial reasons. I just mean I figure he'll get a few token starts in the minors and then get called up very quickly.

 

Wouldn't those token starts take place this summer? Prior didn't pitch for the Cubs after the draft. I don't recall the story around his negotiations, or why he didn't start at all that summer. But part of the excuse for starting him in the minors the year after the draft was that he never pitched as a pro.

How many innings will he be at by the end of the college season?

 

I suspect he won't get too many innings this season (for example, Pierce Johnson threw 11 innings after signing last summer) because of how much he's thrown in college, but enough to justify starting him at AA a la Prior next season.

 

Appel isn't as advanced as Prior despite having an extra year of college experience.

[Guest]

Yeah, it'd be incredibly easy to keep Appel at Tennessee or Iowa until May for service time reasons, unless that was made irrelevant by some contract terms.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

 

Really? It seems to me like they start almost everyone there.

 

High school or rehab guys, yes. Pierce Johnson is in Kane County.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Soler.

 

But the main point is I really don't see them starting the draft pick in the majors right away in 2014. They're going to want to control his workload, and they seem to like to move guys slowly. I'd put the over/under at like 80 MLB innings for the pick.

Edited April 24, 2013 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Cubswin11]

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

 

Really? It seems to me like they start almost everyone there.

 

High school or rehab guys, yes. Pierce Johnson is in Kane County.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Soler.

Didn't he start there because he basically didn't play any baseball in like 1-2 years?

[jersey cubs fan]

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

 

Really? It seems to me like they start almost everyone there.

 

High school or rehab guys, yes. Pierce Johnson is in Kane County.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Soler.

 

Soler just turned 20 during his first spring training and hadn't played baseball in a very long time, plus he was from a completely different culture. Why in the hell would you compare Soler to Appel or Gray?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Soler just turned 20 during his first spring training and hadn't played baseball in a very long time, plus he was from a completely different culture. Why in the hell would you compare Soler to Appel or Gray?

 

It wasn't meant to be a direct, one-to-one comparison.

 

It's just that this front office seems to like to give new prospects a couple of extra weeks' indoctrination in The Cubs Way before letting them loose in the minors. Didn't Baez start there too, or am I imagining things?

 

Maybe it's crazybuckets, though. It doesn't matter. The main point was that even if they are capable of pitching in the majors immediately in 2014, I doubt this front office is going to do that for a couple of reasons.

[jersey cubs fan]

Soler just turned 20 during his first spring training and hadn't played baseball in a very long time, plus he was from a completely different culture. Why in the hell would you compare Soler to Appel or Gray?

 

It wasn't meant to be a direct, one-to-one comparison.

 

It's just that this front office seems to like to give new prospects a couple of extra weeks' indoctrination in The Cubs Way before letting them loose in the minors. Didn't Baez start there too, or am I imagining things?

 

Maybe it's crazybuckets, though. It doesn't matter. The main point was that even if they are capable of pitching in the majors immediately in 2014, I doubt this front office is going to do that for a couple of reasons.

 

You are comparing 22 year old college players with teenagers.

[Guest]

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

 

Really? It seems to me like they start almost everyone there.

 

High school or rehab guys, yes. Pierce Johnson is in Kane County.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Soler.

 

But the main point is I really don't see them starting the draft pick in the majors right away in 2014. They're going to want to control his workload, and they seem to like to move guys slowly. I'd put the over/under at like 80 MLB innings for the pick.

 

Soler is not a good comp because he was coming from a foreign country and hadn't played competitively in two years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

OK, just so we're clear. I am completely denouncing the idea that he might start at XST. Bringing up Soler and Baez wasn't defending the idea, just showing why I had it in the first place.

[Guest]

Soler just turned 20 during his first spring training and hadn't played baseball in a very long time, plus he was from a completely different culture. Why in the hell would you compare Soler to Appel or Gray?

 

It wasn't meant to be a direct, one-to-one comparison.

 

It's just that this front office seems to like to give new prospects a couple of extra weeks' indoctrination in The Cubs Way before letting them loose in the minors. Didn't Baez start there too, or am I imagining things?

 

Maybe it's crazybuckets, though. It doesn't matter. The main point was that even if they are capable of pitching in the majors immediately in 2014, I doubt this front office is going to do that for a couple of reasons.

 

These prospects get the extra few weeks of indoctrination in fall instructs. Baez was a teenage high school prospect, he's not at all a good comparison to a 22-year old college senior. Pierce Johnson is the closest comp and he started this year in Kane County. I'd even say there is some concern if Apprl starts next year in the MWL since he's an advanced college senior.

 

I agree that a college pitcher picked 1.2 won't pitch much in the big leagues in 2014; I just wanted to point out they can plop Appel or Gray in the appropriate A+/AA levels; if they're toiling in Mesa come April, we should be very concerned.

[Guest]

OK, just so we're clear. I am completely denouncing the idea that he might start at XST. Bringing up Soler and Baez wasn't defending the idea, just showing why I had it in the first place.

 

Well crap, I took the time to type out that other post so I'm not deleting it.

[Guest]

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

 

Really? It seems to me like they start almost everyone there.

 

High school or rehab guys, yes. Pierce Johnson is in Kane County.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Soler.

 

Soler just turned 20 during his first spring training and hadn't played baseball in a very long time, plus he was from a completely different culture. Why in the hell would you compare Soler to Appel or Gray?

 

he's 21

[jersey cubs fan]

Soler just turned 20 during his first spring training and hadn't played baseball in a very long time, plus he was from a completely different culture. Why in the hell would you compare Soler to Appel or Gray?

 

he's 21

 

Who is he?

 

Soler turned 20 prior to his first spring training, when he went to extended spring training. He is now 21 and broke camp this season with a full season team. Appel is currently 21, but will be 22 soon after the draft and closer to 23 by the time xst would even be an issue.

[Guest]

am i missing something? soler signed in june

[Hairyducked Idiot]

OK, so we're 6-14. This team is obviously not going to be a .300 team all season.

 

With Baker, Garza and Stewart still rehabbing, we're a tiny bit worse than projected at the beginning of the year, so let's say we're a true-talent 75 win team.

 

If we play like that for the next 80 games, that'd put us at 43-57 through 100 games, which takes us into the final week before the deadline and is roughly the center of the fire sale (assuming we don't wait until July 31 for every single trade).

 

So the big question projecting the rest of the way is how bad will we be after the deadline? Last year, we managed an epic 18-42 (.300) after the trade deadline, but that's probably unsustainably bad. How bad we are after this deadline depends a lot on how willing we are to trade guys with more than one year left on their contract and to give not-ready AAAers some MLB playing time.

 

Just as a WAG, I'd guess we are a .400 team for those final 62 games. That'd be 25-37, for a final projected record of 68-94.

 

If we want to credibly threaten 100 losses, we'll need a few more things to go wrong than already have or can be reasonably expected.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Judging by what we currently have going forward and what we learned today, our best bet might be to see how hard The Marlins would bend us over to get Stanton. He's under control through 2017. He'd be insanely costly, but at this point he could be our only hope as far as realistic options go. We'd be lucky to get away with giving up only 1 of our top 3, but it's probably what needs to be done and I trust our guys to restock the farm system.

[GammonsPocketTweets]

We won't win a bidding war for Stanton

[SouthSideRyan]

And he's only under control through 2016

[dew1679666265]

Judging by what we currently have going forward and what we learned today, our best bet might be to see how hard The Marlins would bend us over to get Stanton. He's under control through 2017. He'd be insanely costly, but at this point he could be our only hope as far as realistic options go. We'd be lucky to get away with giving up only 1 of our top 3, but it's probably what needs to be done and I trust our guys to restock the farm system.

 

What did we learn today?