Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[sneakypower]

i'd like to trade Vitters for a good player right now, if it's possible

[Ryne Ween]

If we are ~.500 or slightly better and within a few games of the division or wild card around July 1 (to the point where even a casual fan has an eye on what the rest of the division is doing) the team at the very least has to stand pat. In that scenario attendance is good and there will be a buzz around the team. Even if they know the team is unsustainably winning more than they should be, they know they have burned almost all the political capital they had as fresh faces.

 

Im looking for a silver lining here and since its easier to fake it for 3 month than 6, I think there is a reasonable chance that the Cubs would take on contracts or trade for a difference maker with a .500 club at July 1. So at this point im taking a 1-0 start and a commanding starting performance from JS as a silver development.

 

Give me a .500 team at July 1 and force their hands into fielding a legitamate baseball team in 2013.

[Ryne Ween]

i'd like to trade Vitters for a good player right now, if it's possible

 

Yea. Please stop talking about trading Vitters like its gonna improve our MLB team.

 

ETA: The guy may have meant tade vitters for a short-term bad salary, and then yea absolutely do that.

[Guest]

i'd like to trade Vitters for a good player right now, if it's possible

 

Yea. Please stop talking about trading Vitters like its gonna improve our MLB team.

 

ETA: The guy may have meant tade vitters for a short-term bad salary, and then yea absolutely do that.

 

Yes, that.

[Guest]

i'd like to trade Vitters for a good player right now, if it's possible

 

So would I.

[davell]

After July 30 last year, .500 on the dot put you 7 games out of the 2nd WC. Would we really firesale a .500 team?

I don't care if we're 10 games OVER .500, if we're 7 out of the last playoff spot, we better be selling.

 

You think there are going to be 4 teams(assuming one of the other division leaders isn't ahead of both wild cards) 24 games over 500 on July 31st?

The point is if you're 7 out, you sell. Record be damned.

 

What if we're 2 out and under 500?

If thats the case, I'm buying lightly or buying heavy if longterm guys are available.

[neely crenshaw]

I am not sure how we will be close come July. It would be nice but things would have to go almost perfect to be that close.

[Backtobanks]

If we are ~.500 or slightly better and within a few games of the division or wild card around July 1 (to the point where even a casual fan has an eye on what the rest of the division is doing) the team at the very least has to stand pat. In that scenario attendance is good and there will be a buzz around the team. Even if they know the team is unsustainably winning more than they should be, they know they have burned almost all the political capital they had as fresh faces.

 

Im looking for a silver lining here and since its easier to fake it for 3 month than 6, I think there is a reasonable chance that the Cubs would take on contracts or trade for a difference maker with a .500 club at July 1. So at this point im taking a 1-0 start and a commanding starting performance from JS as a silver development.

 

Give me a .500 team at July 1 and force their hands into fielding a legitamate baseball team in 2013.

 

First, I can't believe we will be a .500 team on July 1st. That being said, I don't think the FO strays from it's plan to sell off assets and aim at being respectable in 2014 and contending in 2015.

[Guest]

Fun fact: Cubs are 2nd in baseball in starting pitching FIP.

 

(9th in xFIP)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,a

[Martin]

First, I can't believe we will be a .500 team on July 1st. That being said, I don't think the FO strays from it's plan to sell off assets and aim at being respectable in 2014 and contending in 2015.

 

I agree with this. I dont want the FO to trade away player from the Farm System just for short term players when ultimately it doesnt mean anything if we are close to .500 come July i still want us to be looking to trade Garza/Marmol/Soriano and DeJesus rather than keeping them together just to appease the fans.

[KaiserCesar]

I think any addition will be a medium-term asset. I'd be happy with trading a prospect under team control through the end of the decade for a player who will contribute between 2013 and 2015. This team needs some medium-term assets assuming the plan isn't to tank until 2016.

[Hawk4Hall]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

[Little Slide Rooter]

i'd like to trade Vitters for a good player right now, if it's possible

 

So would I.

 

If we traded Vitters right now, we could probably get something similar to him; a one time top prospect who's team is losing patience with him but still young enough that they still have a glimmer of hope to come close to their one time ceiling. Say a Dom Brown, Dellin Betances, or Manny Banuelos. Perhaps a pitching rich system looking to cash one in for a hitting prospect.

 

If not, he'd be a great throw in with a large scale deal.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

 

And as we all know, the essence of the Epstein/Hoyer regime currently inhabits A-AA. As hard as it is to stomach for those in demand of instant gratification, by the time we can truly deem them as successes or failures, the time to extend them or let them walk will be drawing near.

 

As I've said before, Epstein's put himself in a great situation. Either A. he brings the Cubs to glory and becomes the Curse Slayer B. leaves them as bad as they were when he found them, but with a much smaller payroll and his reputation allowing him to land another big contract or C. We're not quite where we want to be but have a strong farm system, which is all credited to his regime, and will either be extended, or land a big deal elsewhere.

[Soul]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

 

And as we all know, the essence of the Epstein/Hoyer regime currently inhabits A-AA. As hard as it is to stomach for those in demand of instant gratification, by the time we can truly deem them as successes or failures, the time to extend them or let them walk will be drawing near.

 

As I've said before, Epstein's put himself in a great situation. Either A. he brings the Cubs to glory and becomes the Curse Slayer B. leaves them as bad as they were when he found them, but with a much smaller payroll and his reputation allowing him to land another big contract or C. We're not quite where we want to be but have a strong farm system, which is all credited to his regime, and will either be extended, or land a big deal elsewhere.

 

You don't think if he fails here, the bloom will be off the rose a little bit?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

And as we all know, the essence of the Epstein/Hoyer regime currently inhabits A-AA.

 

More like EXST-Low A.

[davell]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

You can also look at it from the standpoint that Hendry still has close to 40 mill tied up in Soriano, Marmol, and Garza alone. Those 3 account for over 35% of our payroll. At least we'll see Marmol drop off, Garza too or become part of Theo's decision at least, and with how we're playing Soriano is likely begging to be dealt.

[XZero771679666304]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

 

Of course they do. Now the question is whether what is happening is a failure or what was intended (though I don't think what has happened thus far this season was intended, at least not for the team to be quite this bad). You might see losing 100 games last year instead of 85-90 or losing 90 games this year instead of 80 as failures, but I'm not inclined to agree with that. By and large, I think they are doing what they've set out to do fairly well; that is to acquire young talent to be the core of a future team that is good.

 

The pretty clearly didn't care about last's year's results, and if the teams does decently (75-80 wins, which I feel is still well within the realm of possibility) this year, that's just a bonus. Now if the time comes when winning ball games is priority one and the results are still poor-mediocre, then we can start talking about how they're screwing the pooch. You might disagree with their methodology here, and it's you right to (and if we're still having this same discussion at this time next year, I will too), but my response to point out their culpability for what's happening on the field now is "yeah, so what?".

 

Also, while it's fair to critique their acquisitions (or lack thereof), I think it's weak to try to hold heir promotions from within against them, since it's largely just making the best of the hand they've been dealt in terms of upper-minors talent.

[XZero771679666304]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

 

And as we all know, the essence of the Epstein/Hoyer regime currently inhabits A-AA. As hard as it is to stomach for those in demand of instant gratification, by the time we can truly deem them as successes or failures, the time to extend them or let them walk will be drawing near.

 

As I've said before, Epstein's put himself in a great situation. Either A. he brings the Cubs to glory and becomes the Curse Slayer B. leaves them as bad as they were when he found them, but with a much smaller payroll and his reputation allowing him to land another big contract or C. We're not quite where we want to be but have a strong farm system, which is all credited to his regime, and will either be extended, or land a big deal elsewhere.

 

You don't think if he fails here, the bloom will be off the rose a little bit?

 

I think the bloom was beginning to come off at the end in Boston. If this thing totally blows up, I think he's just another guy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You can also look at it from the standpoint that Hendry still has close to 40 mill tied up in Soriano, Marmol, and Garza alone. Those 3 account for over 35% of our payroll. At least we'll see Marmol drop off, Garza too or become part of Theo's decision at least, and with how we're playing Soriano is likely begging to be dealt.

 

Well, technically, Epstein could have non-tendered Garza, right?

 

If we're counting those players, throw in Castro, Samardzija and Barney. Those seven in aggregate are worth what they are getting paid, I'd imagine.

 

It's one thing to argue that we're bad because Epstein has decided it's worth it to be bad for some long-term plan. But we're far past the point where we can say that we're bad because the front office didn't inherit enough from Hendry. They've had two offseasons now to build a team that they wanted, and they've done so.

[XZero771679666304]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

You can also look at it from the standpoint that Hendry still has close to 40 mill tied up in Soriano, Marmol, and Garza alone. Those 3 account for over 35% of our payroll. At least we'll see Marmol drop off, Garza too or become part of Theo's decision at least, and with how we're playing Soriano is likely begging to be dealt.

 

I don't think the money is as much of an issue as the lack of talent in the upper minors, especially now that the only two real upper level prospects have developed into total question marks.

[davell]

I'll disagree somewhat. But since we don't know for sure what our payroll restrictions truly have been, you and I both already know where we'll take this. Lets just agree that next year is extremely important, under any circumstance.

[XZero771679666304]

You can also look at it from the standpoint that Hendry still has close to 40 mill tied up in Soriano, Marmol, and Garza alone. Those 3 account for over 35% of our payroll. At least we'll see Marmol drop off, Garza too or become part of Theo's decision at least, and with how we're playing Soriano is likely begging to be dealt.

 

Well, technically, Epstein could have non-tendered Garza, right?

 

If we're counting those players, throw in Castro, Samardzija and Barney. Those seven in aggregate are worth what they are getting paid, I'd imagine.

 

It's one thing to argue that we're bad because Epstein has decided it's worth it to be bad for some long-term plan. But we're far past the point where we can say that we're bad because the front office didn't inherit enough from Hendry. They've had two offseasons now to build a team that they wanted, and they've done so.

 

That's fair, but I think it's also fair to say we're not winning the division yet because the front office didn't inherit enough from Hendry. If they optimized the roster with the assets in hand in November 2011, they might only be mediocre to decent instead of awful to bad. And of course that might have entailed not acquiring some of the nicer pieces that they have, but we've been down that road enough times already.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Jim Hendry really ruined this organization more than people thought. His lack of success in the draft and the Soriano contract has really tied the hands of the club.

 

I think/hope/pray Theo can right the ship.

 

By my count, 19 of the 25 men on the current active roster were either acquired or promoted to the roster by the Epstein/Hoyer regime. It's time they start getting the credit for what's happening.

 

And as we all know, the essence of the Epstein/Hoyer regime currently inhabits A-AA. As hard as it is to stomach for those in demand of instant gratification, by the time we can truly deem them as successes or failures, the time to extend them or let them walk will be drawing near.

 

As I've said before, Epstein's put himself in a great situation. Either A. he brings the Cubs to glory and becomes the Curse Slayer B. leaves them as bad as they were when he found them, but with a much smaller payroll and his reputation allowing him to land another big contract or C. We're not quite where we want to be but have a strong farm system, which is all credited to his regime, and will either be extended, or land a big deal elsewhere.

 

You don't think if he fails here, the bloom will be off the rose a little bit?

 

I think the bloom was beginning to come off at the end in Boston. If this thing totally blows up, I think he's just another guy.

 

It depends on what you view as fail. If he were to put together another high priced Frankenstein's Monster, then that would hurt. But if he were to move on at the end of his contract, and at the time we're still sub .500 but have a top 10 farm system with several of his draft picks and acquired prospects filtering through and contributing at the big league level, then he still comes off looking prett good. I suppose it depends on how he were to leave. If it were ownership making the decision, he may well get the benefit of the doubt that the team was in too sad of a shape, and a lot of people may even give him the "victim of the Cubs" card. However, if ownership wanted to keep him around but be chose to move on, that would look worse for him, and he could be accused of not being willing to finish what he started.

 

We should remember that Theo chose this route. Ricketts pretty much handed him the keys, and rather than going after any of the high profile free agents he opted to level the place and build from the ground.