Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[Guest]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

Because being close to .500 isn't exciting.

 

with 2 wild cards, being around .500 means you're probably still in the playoff race in september. yes, that's exciting.

[Backtobanks]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

I can't see us getting real close to .500 unless they get someone to help the offense or somebody outperforms what is expected.

 

at least kyle shows his reasoning and tries to back up his claims. all you ever say is "i don't think they'll be .500 because i dont think they'll be .500"

 

I'm sorry, I thought we were allowed to express our opinions on this site. Looking at Kyle's post he "can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500" which sounds alot like his opinion until the "real projection systems start coming out."

[jersey cubs fan]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

Because being close to .500 isn't exciting.

 

with 2 wild cards, being around .500 means you're probably still in the playoff race in september. yes, that's exciting.

 

I don't see that as exciting. It should be a given that a Cubs team is capable of flirting with .500. That's like bare minimum for an acceptable season. It's going to be exciting when this team actually looks like it may be very good.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Flirting with .500 can be exciting with the extra Wild Card and the ability to make moves in the summer, obviously without giving up any key prospects.

 

Unless someone comes to us with an offer we can't refuse for Garza, Soriano, or whomever, we may as well go for it. Maybe even pick up another bat be it Bourne or another Ian Stewart low risk type.

 

I can't imagine having a better rotation than Garza, Shark, Jackson, and 2 of Baker/Villanueva/Feldman/Wood the next few years. The bullpen should be very strong as well.

 

If July rolls around and things aren't looking good, we'll have plenty of moveable pieces to sell off; Marmol, Garza, Soriano, DeJesus, Baker, and Feldman could bring back useful pieces.

[Guest]

Think it is pretty universal that most on here (including myself) like the apparent direction the of the Cubs. However, getting excited about maybe being .500 if everything works out ok is not really something to get excited about. However, unless they trade/acquire some OPS I don't think they'll be close, even if everything works out.

[hankp101]

Being right around .500 isn't something to be terribly excited about. Being projected to be right around .500 is something it's reasonable to be excited about though. A team that's projected right around .500 can definitely be a playoff team if things break right.

[Beer Kaese]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

I'm with you on this one. This team is younger and cheaper and the farm has way flippin' more talent than what Jim Hendry rolled out in April of 2011. Maybe this time the Tribune won't fire Dallas Green before the talent makes it to the majors. I'm jacked up on the direction and I can't wait to see it play out over the next couple seasons.

[Guest]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

I'm with you on this one. This team is younger and cheaper and the farm has way flippin' more talent than what Jim Hendry rolled out in April of 2011. Maybe this time the Tribune won't fire Dallas Green before the talent makes it to the majors. I'm jacked up on the direction and I can't wait to see it play out over the next couple seasons.

Didn't Green resign?

[NewUserName]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

I'm with you on this one. This team is younger and cheaper and the farm has way flippin' more talent than what Jim Hendry rolled out in April of 2011. Maybe this time the Tribune won't fire Dallas Green before the talent makes it to the majors. I'm jacked up on the direction and I can't wait to see it play out over the next couple seasons.

Didn't Green resign?

 

He resigned, but I think he was going to be fired. He didn't get along well with the Tribune management team.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Think it is pretty universal that most on here (including myself) like the apparent direction the of the Cubs. However, getting excited about maybe being .500 if everything works out ok is not really something to get excited about. However, unless they trade/acquire some OPS I don't think they'll be close, even if everything works out.

 

I'm certainly excited to watch and see how the 162 regular season games unfold, and that's more than I was able to say the past few winters. If when the Summer rolls around we're competing, and in position to make moves to make us better, then it will be more exciting. That's how I used to view the baseball season as a kid.

[Beer Kaese]

Think it is pretty universal that most on here (including myself) like the apparent direction the of the Cubs. However, getting excited about maybe being .500 if everything works out ok is not really something to get excited about. However, unless they trade/acquire some OPS I don't think they'll be close, even if everything works out.

 

I'm certainly excited to watch and see how the 162 regular season games unfold, and that's more than I was able to say the past few winters. If when the Summer rolls around we're competing, and in position to make moves to make us better, then it will be more exciting. That's how I used to view the baseball season as a kid.

 

I will be disappointed if we are buyers. We must be sellers . . . one more year.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Zips is out http://bit.ly/133jftT

[jersey cubs fan]

I hope they are gooder at math than inglish.

 

The Cubs are projected by ZiPS to have, in shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, to have a pair of basically All Star-type players who are also just 23 years old.

[jersey cubs fan]

Before the Cubs signed Scott Feldman, our Dave Cameron had hailed — or, at least something close to hailed — him (i.e. Feldman) as “one of the best buys on the market.”

 

Seriously, this guy can't write.

[Guest]

Zips is out http://bit.ly/133jftT

 

Guess I should stop giving Kyle crap about projecting 0 WAR from Stewart. 8-[

[jersey cubs fan]

Zips is out http://bit.ly/133jftT

 

Guess I should stop giving Kyle crap about projecting 0 WAR from Stewart. 8-[

 

Were you really giving him crap about that? What sort of projection were you thinking?

[Guest]

I'm probably a win more optimistic on both the back-end of the rotation and the outfield as a whole, but otherwise that's about what I've been thinking.

[Guest]

I'm probably a win more optimistic on both the back-end of the rotation and the outfield as a whole, but otherwise that's about what I've been thinking.

I think Shark will be better than a three win pitcher this year. They have his innings low because of his past usage. Also, they won't live with a zero win year from Stewart without moving to Valbuena, Vitters, Lake or another solution.

 

Otherwise I'd probably agree.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm probably a win more optimistic on both the back-end of the rotation and the outfield as a whole, but otherwise that's about what I've been thinking.

I think Shark will be better than a three win pitcher this year. They have his innings low because of his past usage. Also, they won't live with a zero win year from Stewart without moving to Valbuena, Vitters, Lake or another solution.

 

Otherwise I'd probably agree.

 

You are assuming those guys would actually be a solution for 0 win production.

[Guest]

Zips is out http://bit.ly/133jftT

 

Guess I should stop giving Kyle crap about projecting 0 WAR from Stewart. 8-[

 

Were you really giving him crap about that? What sort of projection were you thinking?

 

1 just off his defense, maybe 2 if things went well.

 

but that assumes he'd play well enough to keep his job. if he doesn't, i'm pretty sure valbuena is good for more than 0.

[Guest]

I'm probably a win more optimistic on both the back-end of the rotation and the outfield as a whole, but otherwise that's about what I've been thinking.

I think Shark will be better than a three win pitcher this year. They have his innings low because of his past usage. Also, they won't live with a zero win year from Stewart without moving to Valbuena, Vitters, Lake or another solution.

 

Otherwise I'd probably agree.

 

Yeah, there's individual guys I'm higher on(Shark, Barney, RF platoon) and individual guys I wouldn't have projected quite that high(Garza, one of Castro/Rizzo), but in aggregate it's pretty close. 3B is the closest spot I can come to being pretty disparate on, and even that I have a tough time campaigning too hard about.

[ConstableRabbit]

Pretty low IP from Garza... are they assuming he'll be hurt?

[Guest]

I'm probably a win more optimistic on both the back-end of the rotation and the outfield as a whole, but otherwise that's about what I've been thinking.

I think Shark will be better than a three win pitcher this year. They have his innings low because of his past usage. Also, they won't live with a zero win year from Stewart without moving to Valbuena, Vitters, Lake or another solution.

 

Otherwise I'd probably agree.

 

You are assuming those guys would actually be a solution for 0 win production.

Vitters FTW

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Zips is out http://bit.ly/133jftT

 

Yeah, that all looks super reasonable. Keep in mind that I like to use a higher replacement level, so when I say "0" for Stewart, that's like a 1.0 on Fangraphs' replacement scale.

 

A commenter said that it's based on 45-win replacement, so if you plug that into real playing time you get something like:

 

Soriano (1.8)/DeJesus(1.1)/Platoon(1.3) Backups (0.6)

 

Stewart (0.6)/Castro (4.0)/Barney (2.3)/Rizzo (4.0) Backups (1.0*)

 

Castillo/Navarro (2.3)

 

Samardzija/Garza/Jackson/Feldman/Villanueva = 11.0 in 113 starts according to ZIPs. So if you give the remaining 49 starts to Baker, Wood and Vizcaino in some reasonable mixture, you get roughly 13 wins total out of the rotation.

 

Bullpen total: roughly 3.0.

 

Total WAR: 35

Projected total: 80-82

 

*-ZIPS is crazy in love with Valbuena, Vitters, Clevenger, even Logan Watkins, at least to me it seems so.

[Guest]

Zips is out http://bit.ly/133jftT

 

Yeah, that all looks super reasonable. Keep in mind that I like to use a higher replacement level, so when I say "0" for Stewart, that's like a 1.0 on Fangraphs' replacement scale.

 

A commenter said that it's based on 45-win replacement, so if you plug that into real playing time you get something like:

 

Soriano (1.8)/DeJesus(1.1)/Platoon(1.3) Backups (0.6)

 

Stewart (0.6)/Castro (4.0)/Barney (2.3)/Rizzo (4.0) Backups (1.0*)

 

Castillo/Navarro (2.3)

 

Samardzija/Garza/Jackson/Feldman/Villanueva = 11.0 in 113 starts according to ZIPs. So if you give the remaining 49 starts to Baker, Wood and Vizcaino in some reasonable mixture, you get roughly 13 wins total out of the rotation.

 

Bullpen total: roughly 3.0.

 

Total WAR: 35

Projected total: 80-82

 

*-ZIPS is crazy in love with Valbuena, Vitters, Clevenger, even Logan Watkins, at least to me it seems so.

 

That would at least be an enjoyable season to watch, especially if the 3 key pieces are major contributors.