Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just noticed RLYW has a very preliminary 2013 Cairo spreadsheet out.

 

Cubs

 

Batters BA OBP SLG defensive runs saved

 

Darwin Barney .259 .303 .346 9

Tony Campana .259 .309 .317 1

Welington Castillo .249 .316 .430 0

Starlin Castro .288 .329 .421 (-4)

Steve Clevenger .260 .323 .376 0

David DeJesus .262 .340 .401 (-2) as CF, 1 as RF

Brett Jackson .243 .332 .411 0

Anthony Rizzo .261 .334 .469 1

Dave Sappelt .273 .332 .398 3

Nate Schierholtz .258 .318 .410 (-1)

Alfonso Soriano .247 .300 .441 (-2)

Ian Stewart .216 .302 .384 (1)

Luis Valbuena .245 .324 .381 (0)

Josh Vitters .259 .302 .342 (-2)

 

Pitcher ERA

Scott Baker 4.73

Jeff Beliveau 4.28

Michael Bowden 4.20

Alberto Cabrera 5.36

Shawn Camp 3.60

Rafael Dolis 4.91

Scott Feldman 4.73

Matt Garza 3.71

Carlos Marmol 3.40

James Russell 3.94

Jeff Samardzija 3.82

Arodys Vizcaino 4.07

Travis Wood 4.21

 

 

The defensive numbers are kind of wonky because they are adjusted for playing time, but even still they are oddly conservative except for Barney's. It generally hates our pitchers. They did a projected standings and had the Cubs at 71-91.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Also, replacing all those games vs. the Astros with other opponents basically knocks two wins off of every NL Central team's projection.

[Guest]

Just noticed RLYW has a very preliminary 2013 Cairo spreadsheet out.

 

Cubs

 

Batters BA OBP SLG defensive runs saved

 

Darwin Barney .259 .303 .346 9

Tony Campana .259 .309 .317 1

Welington Castillo .249 .316 .430 0

Starlin Castro .288 .329 .421 (-4)

Steve Clevenger .260 .323 .376 0

David DeJesus .262 .340 .401 (-2) as CF, 1 as RF

Brett Jackson .243 .332 .411 0

Anthony Rizzo .261 .334 .469 1

Dave Sappelt .273 .332 .398 3

Nate Schierholtz .258 .318 .410 (-1)

Alfonso Soriano .247 .300 .441 (-2)

Ian Stewart .216 .302 .384 (1)

Luis Valbuena .245 .324 .381 (0)

Josh Vitters .259 .302 .342 (-2)

 

Pitcher ERA

Scott Baker 4.73

Jeff Beliveau 4.28

Michael Bowden 4.20

Alberto Cabrera 5.36

Shawn Camp 3.60

Rafael Dolis 4.91

Scott Feldman 4.73

Matt Garza 3.71

Carlos Marmol 3.40

James Russell 3.94

Jeff Samardzija 3.82

Arodys Vizcaino 4.07

Travis Wood 4.21

 

 

The defensive numbers are kind of wonky because they are adjusted for playing time, but even still they are oddly conservative except for Barney's. It generally hates our pitchers. They did a projected standings and had the Cubs at 71-91.

I'd be thrilled to get that from Jackson next year.

[Cubswin11]

Just noticed RLYW has a very preliminary 2013 Cairo spreadsheet out.

 

Cubs

 

Batters BA OBP SLG defensive runs saved

 

Darwin Barney .259 .303 .346 9

Tony Campana .259 .309 .317 1

Welington Castillo .249 .316 .430 0

Starlin Castro .288 .329 .421 (-4)

Steve Clevenger .260 .323 .376 0

David DeJesus .262 .340 .401 (-2) as CF, 1 as RF

Brett Jackson .243 .332 .411 0

Anthony Rizzo .261 .334 .469 1

Dave Sappelt .273 .332 .398 3

Nate Schierholtz .258 .318 .410 (-1)

Alfonso Soriano .247 .300 .441 (-2)

Ian Stewart .216 .302 .384 (1)

Luis Valbuena .245 .324 .381 (0)

Josh Vitters .259 .302 .342 (-2)

 

Pitcher ERA

Scott Baker 4.73

Jeff Beliveau 4.28

Michael Bowden 4.20

Alberto Cabrera 5.36

Shawn Camp 3.60

Rafael Dolis 4.91

Scott Feldman 4.73

Matt Garza 3.71

Carlos Marmol 3.40

James Russell 3.94

Jeff Samardzija 3.82

Arodys Vizcaino 4.07

Travis Wood 4.21

 

 

The defensive numbers are kind of wonky because they are adjusted for playing time, but even still they are oddly conservative except for Barney's. It generally hates our pitchers. They did a projected standings and had the Cubs at 71-91.

Seems roughly about right, outside of the defense like you mentioned. Would be disappointed if that ended up being Castro's final line and I guess I'd be fine with a .800ish OPS out of Rizzo in his first full year. But that record is about what I think they will be, this team is going to struggle to hit for power again and score runs consistently I feel like.

[Guest]

Just noticed RLYW has a very preliminary 2013 Cairo spreadsheet out.

 

Cubs

 

Batters BA OBP SLG defensive runs saved

 

Darwin Barney .259 .303 .346 9

Tony Campana .259 .309 .317 1

Welington Castillo .249 .316 .430 0

Starlin Castro .288 .329 .421 (-4)

Steve Clevenger .260 .323 .376 0

David DeJesus .262 .340 .401 (-2) as CF, 1 as RF

Brett Jackson .243 .332 .411 0

Anthony Rizzo .261 .334 .469 1

Dave Sappelt .273 .332 .398 3

Nate Schierholtz .258 .318 .410 (-1)

Alfonso Soriano .247 .300 .441 (-2)

Ian Stewart .216 .302 .384 (1)

Luis Valbuena .245 .324 .381 (0)

Josh Vitters .259 .302 .342 (-2)

 

Pitcher ERA

Scott Baker 4.73

Jeff Beliveau 4.28

Michael Bowden 4.20

Alberto Cabrera 5.36

Shawn Camp 3.60

Rafael Dolis 4.91

Scott Feldman 4.73

Matt Garza 3.71

Carlos Marmol 3.40

James Russell 3.94

Jeff Samardzija 3.82

Arodys Vizcaino 4.07

Travis Wood 4.21

 

 

The defensive numbers are kind of wonky because they are adjusted for playing time, but even still they are oddly conservative except for Barney's. It generally hates our pitchers. They did a projected standings and had the Cubs at 71-91.

Seems roughly about right, outside of the defense like you mentioned. Would be disappointed if that ended up being Castro's final line and I guess I'd be fine with a .800ish OPS out of Rizzo in his first full year. But that record is about what I think they will be, this team is going to struggle to hit for power again and score runs consistently I feel like.

The team isn't even finished yet.

[SABR Gamer]

Just noticed RLYW has a very preliminary 2013 Cairo spreadsheet out.

 

Cubs

 

Batters BA OBP SLG defensive runs saved

 

Darwin Barney .259 .303 .346 9

Tony Campana .259 .309 .317 1

Welington Castillo .249 .316 .430 0

Starlin Castro .288 .329 .421 (-4)

Steve Clevenger .260 .323 .376 0

David DeJesus .262 .340 .401 (-2) as CF, 1 as RF

Brett Jackson .243 .332 .411 0

Anthony Rizzo .261 .334 .469 1

Dave Sappelt .273 .332 .398 3

Nate Schierholtz .258 .318 .410 (-1)

Alfonso Soriano .247 .300 .441 (-2)

Ian Stewart .216 .302 .384 (1)

Luis Valbuena .245 .324 .381 (0)

Josh Vitters .259 .302 .342 (-2)

 

Pitcher ERA

Scott Baker 4.73

Jeff Beliveau 4.28

Michael Bowden 4.20

Alberto Cabrera 5.36

Shawn Camp 3.60

Rafael Dolis 4.91

Scott Feldman 4.73

Matt Garza 3.71

Carlos Marmol 3.40

James Russell 3.94

Jeff Samardzija 3.82

Arodys Vizcaino 4.07

Travis Wood 4.21

 

 

The defensive numbers are kind of wonky because they are adjusted for playing time, but even still they are oddly conservative except for Barney's. It generally hates our pitchers. They did a projected standings and had the Cubs at 71-91.

Seems roughly about right, outside of the defense like you mentioned. Would be disappointed if that ended up being Castro's final line and I guess I'd be fine with a .800ish OPS out of Rizzo in his first full year. But that record is about what I think they will be, this team is going to struggle to hit for power again and score runs consistently I feel like.

The team isn't even finished yet.

 

What? You mean the offseason doesn't end in December!?!?

[Cubswin11]

Just noticed RLYW has a very preliminary 2013 Cairo spreadsheet out.

 

Cubs

 

Batters BA OBP SLG defensive runs saved

 

Darwin Barney .259 .303 .346 9

Tony Campana .259 .309 .317 1

Welington Castillo .249 .316 .430 0

Starlin Castro .288 .329 .421 (-4)

Steve Clevenger .260 .323 .376 0

David DeJesus .262 .340 .401 (-2) as CF, 1 as RF

Brett Jackson .243 .332 .411 0

Anthony Rizzo .261 .334 .469 1

Dave Sappelt .273 .332 .398 3

Nate Schierholtz .258 .318 .410 (-1)

Alfonso Soriano .247 .300 .441 (-2)

Ian Stewart .216 .302 .384 (1)

Luis Valbuena .245 .324 .381 (0)

Josh Vitters .259 .302 .342 (-2)

 

Pitcher ERA

Scott Baker 4.73

Jeff Beliveau 4.28

Michael Bowden 4.20

Alberto Cabrera 5.36

Shawn Camp 3.60

Rafael Dolis 4.91

Scott Feldman 4.73

Matt Garza 3.71

Carlos Marmol 3.40

James Russell 3.94

Jeff Samardzija 3.82

Arodys Vizcaino 4.07

Travis Wood 4.21

 

 

The defensive numbers are kind of wonky because they are adjusted for playing time, but even still they are oddly conservative except for Barney's. It generally hates our pitchers. They did a projected standings and had the Cubs at 71-91.

Seems roughly about right, outside of the defense like you mentioned. Would be disappointed if that ended up being Castro's final line and I guess I'd be fine with a .800ish OPS out of Rizzo in his first full year. But that record is about what I think they will be, this team is going to struggle to hit for power again and score runs consistently I feel like.

The team isn't even finished yet.

I was going off the assumption that we have a finished product/what the season would be like if it started now with our current roster. I don't see us adding much to change from being about a 90 loss team though +/- 5 games. Outside of adding some sort of RH hitting OF/3B/1B and maybe another lottery ticket arm I don't see us adding anything more to the ML roster.

[sneakypower]

Just noticed RLYW has a very preliminary 2013 Cairo spreadsheet out.

 

Cubs

 

Batters BA OBP SLG defensive runs saved

 

Darwin Barney .259 .303 .346 9

Tony Campana .259 .309 .317 1

Welington Castillo .249 .316 .430 0

Starlin Castro .288 .329 .421 (-4)

Steve Clevenger .260 .323 .376 0

David DeJesus .262 .340 .401 (-2) as CF, 1 as RF

Brett Jackson .243 .332 .411 0

Anthony Rizzo .261 .334 .469 1

Dave Sappelt .273 .332 .398 3

Nate Schierholtz .258 .318 .410 (-1)

Alfonso Soriano .247 .300 .441 (-2)

Ian Stewart .216 .302 .384 (1)

Luis Valbuena .245 .324 .381 (0)

Josh Vitters .259 .302 .342 (-2)

 

Pitcher ERA

Scott Baker 4.73

Jeff Beliveau 4.28

Michael Bowden 4.20

Alberto Cabrera 5.36

Shawn Camp 3.60

Rafael Dolis 4.91

Scott Feldman 4.73

Matt Garza 3.71

Carlos Marmol 3.40

James Russell 3.94

Jeff Samardzija 3.82

Arodys Vizcaino 4.07

Travis Wood 4.21

 

 

The defensive numbers are kind of wonky because they are adjusted for playing time, but even still they are oddly conservative except for Barney's. It generally hates our pitchers. They did a projected standings and had the Cubs at 71-91.

I'd be thrilled to get that from Jackson next year.

Jackson would be our most productive position player if all those projections held true

 

but it'd also mean we'd have no chance of seriously competing for a pretty long time, if everybody else's development stagnated like that

[jersey cubs fan]

Jackson would be our most productive position player if all those projections held true

 

Do you mean in terms of "for their position"?

[sneakypower]

he'd have the highest WAR amongst hitters, on a rate basis

 

but obviously others would receive more playing time and post higher overall totals

[jersey cubs fan]

he'd have the highest WAR amongst hitters, on a rate basis

 

but obviously others would receive more playing time and post higher overall totals

 

Assuming a substantial advantage in baserunning in comparison to Rizzo then, as he's got the advantage in AVG/OBP/SLG and defensive runs saved according to those projections.

[Guest]

If Rizzo put that up next year I'd be pretty sad. Same with Starlin.

[sneakypower]

he'd have the highest WAR amongst hitters, on a rate basis

 

but obviously others would receive more playing time and post higher overall totals

 

Assuming a substantial advantage in baserunning in comparison to Rizzo then, as he's got the advantage in AVG/OBP/SLG and defensive runs saved according to those projections.

it's assuming no baserunning advantage- there's a full 2-win positional adjustment separating 1B and CF (per 700 PA)

 

the differences in offense (.345 wOBA vs. .326 wOBA) covers just a little bit more than 1 win of that gap; it's an obvious thing to say, but 1B demands a lot of offense

[jersey cubs fan]

he'd have the highest WAR amongst hitters, on a rate basis

 

but obviously others would receive more playing time and post higher overall totals

 

Assuming a substantial advantage in baserunning in comparison to Rizzo then, as he's got the advantage in AVG/OBP/SLG and defensive runs saved according to those projections.

it's assuming no baserunning advantage- there's a full 2-win positional adjustment separating 1B and CF (per 700 PA)

 

the differences in offense (.345 wOBA vs. .326 wOBA) covers just a little bit more than 1 win of that gap; it's an obvious thing to say, but 1B demands a lot of offense

 

Okay, so what I said earlier by "for their position" is the case.

[Guest]

he'd have the highest WAR amongst hitters, on a rate basis

 

but obviously others would receive more playing time and post higher overall totals

 

Assuming a substantial advantage in baserunning in comparison to Rizzo then, as he's got the advantage in AVG/OBP/SLG and defensive runs saved according to those projections.

it's assuming no baserunning advantage- there's a full 2-win positional adjustment separating 1B and CF (per 700 PA)

 

the differences in offense (.345 wOBA vs. .326 wOBA) covers just a little bit more than 1 win of that gap; it's an obvious thing to say, but 1B demands a lot of offense

 

Okay, so what I said earlier by "for their position" is the case.

 

Right, which is implied in WAR.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Soriano(1.5)/DeJesus(1.0)/Schierholtz(1.0) (Sappelt/Campana) (1.0) (Various backups 0)

Stewart(0.0)/Castro (4.0)/Barney(2.0)/Rizzo(4.0) (Valbuena/Clevenger)(0.0) (Various backups -1.0)

Castillo(1.0) (Navarro)(0.0)

 

Garza(2.0)/Samardzija(2.5)/Baker(1.0)/Villanueva (1.0)/Feldman(0.5) (Various spot starters 1.0)

Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon (3.0) (Various tag-ins, -0.5)

 

Total: 25.5 WAR

Projected record: 78-84

 

We're getting dangerously close to being relevant by just throwing waves and waves of OK pitching at people.

 

Jackson + Bourn + some sort of RH infield depth makes this a potentially winning team.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm going to tempt fate and assume that Jackson really is as done as it seems.

 

It's not as big of an upgrade as it seems like it should be, because we're just running out of pitchers to slot in. The upside is that it severely limits our downside. I don't think it pushes up the median projection a ton, but it really scrunches up the tail of the bell curve (I'm probably not making any sense at this point, but I know what I mean).

 

 

 

Soriano(1.5)/DeJesus(1.0)/Schierholtz(1.0) (Sappelt/Campana) (1.0) (Various backups 0)

Stewart(0.0)/Castro (4.0)/Barney(2.0)/Rizzo(4.0) (Valbuena/Clevenger)(0.0) (Various backups -1.0)

Castillo(1.0) (Navarro)(0.0)

 

Garza(2.0)/Samardzija(2.5)/Jackson (2.0)/Baker(1.0)/Villanueva (1.0) (Various spot starters 1.0)

Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Wood?/Rondon (3.0) (Various tag-ins, -0.5)

 

Total: 26.5 WAR

Projected record: 79-83

 

I'm actually at the point where I'm comfortable with the pitching depth in the rotation and the bullpen, which is scary because it goes so directly against recent Cubs history. But there really are teams that go the whole year without having to get 30 starts out of Casey Coleman and Rodrigo Lopez or throwing a guy like Dolis into a key setup role in late April. It'd be nice to have one of those seasons.

 

We've pretty much picked the low-hanging fruit. The infield depth is horrific but I expect that to be addressed before ST. I love our outfield depth but I hate our starters. Left to right, it's Old Guy We Keep Trying To Trade With No One To Take His Place, Getting Old Guy Who Isn't Really a CFer, and Platoon!.

 

I keep having these little fantasies where Epstein and Hoyer do something audacious and magic us up a good 3b and suddenly we're a playoff contender.

 

[Iloveoldstyle]

I just hope we don't lose 100+ games in 2013...that would show that theo is starting to turn it around and should lead to a trend of getting better each and every year

[seanimal]

how many world series will we win this year?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

One, give or take.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

[davell]

Adding Upton and Bourn, minus Soriano, DeJesus, and Garza does what to the projected wins?

[jersey cubs fan]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

Because being close to .500 isn't exciting.

[Backtobanks]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

I can't see us getting real close to .500 unless they get someone to help the offense or somebody outperforms what is expected.

[Guest]

I really can't wait until real projection systems start coming out.

 

If you look at the players we are actually fielding, I can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500 as long as we don't gut it with trades. People don't seem excited enough about that fact.

 

I can't see us getting real close to .500 unless they get someone to help the offense or somebody outperforms what is expected.

 

at least kyle shows his reasoning and tries to back up his claims. all you ever say is "i don't think they'll be .500 because i dont think they'll be .500"