The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Derwood]

Felix already has a 31.5 career WAR and he's only 26

[Guest]

Felix already has a 31.5 career WAR and he's only 26

Don't pay for past performance, pay for expected performance throughout the course of the contract.

[KingCubsFan]

I don't see how looking at one year's worth of WAR is helpful at all. But yes, always trade the good players for prospects, because those good players start to cost money and they might not perform up their huge contracts.

The idea isn't looking at one year's worth of WAR. The idea is that those were the top 25 pitchers from seven years ago. How many had seven years of production you'd be happy paying 7/$175 for since that time?

 

Pick any year as your starting point and count seven years forward from that one. You'll find damn few pitchers (who are eligible/nearly eligible to sign a FA contract) that will be worth 7/$175. And there's basically no way to pick out the ones who are in advance.

 

In order to be worth considering for that kind of contract, a pitcher probably has to have at least three seasons (preferably more) of elite production already. Then you're projecting seven more years of elite production on top of that. Just how many pitchers over the past 20-30 years can you think of with a ten+ year stretch of dominance? I'll start you off: Clemens, Maddux, Unit.

 

Theo faced this decision when he was with Boston and he made the right call. He could have given Pedro the contract he got from the Mets, but he held off and the Mets got stuck paying for nothing after the first couple years. Then the Mets got burned again with Johan.

 

Let's not be the Mets.

 

Playing devil's advocate, because I agree with you about paying pitchers. But I don't think Felix is getting this deal based on one good year. More like the last 4-5 years. The data is probably harder to come across, but I wonder if the list of the top WAR pitchers from 2004-2006 under say, age 28, would look very different than your list.

The list still isn't very promising. Santana, Oswalt, Sheets, Lackey, Webb, Zambrano, Buehrle, Peavy, Sabathia, etc. Out of those guys, Buehrle, Sabathia and Santana are the only ones where a seven year deal probably would have been worth it (and Santana is obviously questionable).

[Guest]

I don't see how looking at one year's worth of WAR is helpful at all. But yes, always trade the good players for prospects, because those good players start to cost money and they might not perform up their huge contracts.

The idea isn't looking at one year's worth of WAR. The idea is that those were the top 25 pitchers from seven years ago. How many had seven years of production you'd be happy paying 7/$175 for since that time?

 

Pick any year as your starting point and count seven years forward from that one. You'll find damn few pitchers (who are eligible/nearly eligible to sign a FA contract) that will be worth 7/$175. And there's basically no way to pick out the ones who are in advance.

 

In order to be worth considering for that kind of contract, a pitcher probably has to have at least three seasons (preferably more) of elite production already. Then you're projecting seven more years of elite production on top of that. Just how many pitchers over the past 20-30 years can you think of with a ten+ year stretch of dominance? I'll start you off: Clemens, Maddux, Unit.

 

Theo faced this decision when he was with Boston and he made the right call. He could have given Pedro the contract he got from the Mets, but he held off and the Mets got stuck paying for nothing after the first couple years. Then the Mets got burned again with Johan.

 

Let's not be the Mets.

 

Playing devil's advocate, because I agree with you about paying pitchers. But I don't think Felix is getting this deal based on one good year. More like the last 4-5 years. The data is probably harder to come across, but I wonder if the list of the top WAR pitchers from 2004-2006 under say, age 28, would look very different than your list.

Yeah, that's a point I sort of address in my post you're quoting. It actually makes it more difficult because then you need that level of dominance to extend over the 4-5 years previous to the contract plus the seven years of the contract. There are simply very few pitchers able to maintain that kind of peak without breaking down.

 

Heck, just look at the top few names on that list for a cautionary tale. After Santana had pitched at that level for 4-5 years, the Mets gave him a big contract. Not good. Webb pitched great through his early career - I'm pretty sure AZ is happy they didn't give him this kind of extension. Think Boston is happy they signed Lackey away from Anaheim? Smoltz would have been a VERY expensive closer (and missed a lot of time) on the deal had he been signed at a similar point.

 

There are certainly examples you can point to as being successful over that kind of stretch, but it is a really, really bad bet.

[jersey cubs fan]

Felix already has a 31.5 career WAR and he's only 26

Don't pay for past performance, pay for expected performance throughout the course of the contract.

 

If you refuse to bite the bullet and risk paying too much to a guy 6 years from now you won't get his top notch performance the next 4-5 years, and you won't win.

 

 

The goal is not to have the most cost effective team, the goal is to have the best team.

 

The system is set-up so you get cheap production early and expensive production late. You're a fool if you don't take advantage of the former and delusional if you think you can avoid the latter.

[imb]

Here is the list of top 25 pitchers (by fWAR) from 2006. How many of these guys would you have been happy paying $25M ever since then?

 

1 Johan Santana

2 Brandon Webb

3 Jeremy Bonderman

4 John Lackey

5 John Smoltz

6 Roy Oswalt

7 Roy Halladay

8 Curt Schilling

9 CC Sabathia

10 Aaron Harang

11 Mike Mussina

12 Chris Carpenter

13 Kevin Millwood

14 Erik Bedard

15 Javier Vazquez

16 Chien-Ming Wang

17 Kelvim Escobar

18 Derek Lowe

19 Jake Westbrook

20 Jason Jennings

21 Greg Maddux

22 Aaron Cook

23 Bronson Arroyo

24 Jose Contreras

25 Jason Schmidt

 

How many of these guys were 26 year old studs with a long history of stud-ism? What a useless list.

[Guest]

Felix already has a 31.5 career WAR and he's only 26

Don't pay for past performance, pay for expected performance throughout the course of the contract.

 

If you refuse to bite the bullet and risk paying too much to a guy 6 years from now you won't get his top notch performance the next 4-5 years, and you won't win.

 

 

The goal is not to have the most cost effective team, the goal is to have the best team.

 

The system is set-up so you get cheap production early and expensive production late. You're a fool if you don't take advantage of the former and delusional if you think you can avoid the latter.

Yes, but there are good risks and bad risks. 7/$175 to any pitcher is a bad risk.

[jersey cubs fan]

Felix already has a 31.5 career WAR and he's only 26

Don't pay for past performance, pay for expected performance throughout the course of the contract.

 

If you refuse to bite the bullet and risk paying too much to a guy 6 years from now you won't get his top notch performance the next 4-5 years, and you won't win.

 

 

The goal is not to have the most cost effective team, the goal is to have the best team.

 

The system is set-up so you get cheap production early and expensive production late. You're a fool if you don't take advantage of the former and delusional if you think you can avoid the latter.

Yes, but there are good risks and bad risks. 7/$175 to any pitcher is a bad risk.

 

 

People say that about the highest contracts given out every year. The revenue is there, the risk is completely acceptable. This is the cost of doing business in major league baseball and the teams that win are willing to take those risks.

[Guest]

Since 2006, there have been 5-6 guys who would have been worth that kind of money during that timeframe, depending on how precise you want to be with $/WAR. Sabathia, Halladay, Lee, Verlander, maybe Haren, and Felix Hernandez. Felix is 3 years younger than the next youngest guy on that list.

[Guest]

Here is the list of top 25 pitchers (by fWAR) from 2006. How many of these guys would you have been happy paying $25M ever since then?

 

How many of these guys were 26 year old studs with a long history of stud-ism? What a useless list.

Fine. Let's take a look at a different list.

 

Here is the list of pitchers sorted by fWAR generated through age 26:

 

1 Felix Hernandez

2 CC Sabathia

3 Pedro Martinez

4 Zack Greinke

5 Kevin Appier

6 Mark Buehrle

7 Javier Vazquez

8 Matt Cain

9 Johan Santana

10 Tim Lincecum

11 Clayton Kershaw

12 Alex Fernandez

13 Carlos Zambrano

14 Roy Halladay

15 Steve Avery

16 Jake Peavy

17 Ben Sheets

18 Roy Oswalt

19 Mark Mulder

20 Brad Radke

21 Greg Maddux

22 Jon Lester

23 Barry Zito

24 Justin Verlander

25 Mike Mussina

 

Now let's break that down a bit.

 

This is my list of guys from that list who would have been worth the contract:

 

CC Sabathia

Roy Halladay

Greg Maddux

 

This is my list of guys for whom the contract wouldn't have been a disaster:

 

Mark Buehrle

Mike Mussina

 

Here is the list of guys for whom that contact would have been Mike Hamptonish for the team:

 

Pedro Martinez

Kevin Appier

Javier Vazquez

Johan Santana

Alex Fernandez

Carlos Zambrano

Steve Avery

Jake Peavy

Ben Sheets

Roy Oswalt

Mark Mulder

Brad Radke

Barry Zito

 

Here are the guys who are at that point where they'd just be getting the contract now and it is too soon to tell how it would play out:

 

Felix Hernandez

Zack Greinke

Matt Cain

Tim Lincecum

Clayton Kershaw

Jon Lester

Justin Verlander

 

If I had to bet, I'd say that one or (at most) two of those guys will be worth $175M over the next seven years. Arms just rarely hold up at an elite level for that length of time.

 

It is true that Felix is only 26 and has been studly for that whole time. He also has a lot of miles on his arm already and you're betting awfully big that he stays healthy and doesn't have his stuff drop off.

[davell]

If you go by the 5 mill needs to get you a WAR thing, Felix conceivably needs to be worth 35 WAR over the next 7 years to be "worth" that contract. Thats not why you do a deal like that though. In all likelihood, he's not going to be worth that much. You do it anyway though, because its very likely he'll put up several bigtime seasons, maybe getting you into the playoffs or better during some of them. Plus, the saved revenue keeping him gets you, instead of the backlash you face, if you deal him or let him walk. In OUR case, we should honestly be able to handle 40-50 mill of dead payroll per year and win with a 110-120 mill working payroll, if we have cheap, cost controlled production. I doubt the Mariners have the same luxury as we do, but its still a risk you gulp on, but take.

[jersey cubs fan]

Here is the list of guys for whom that contact would have been Mike Hamptonish for the team:

 

Pedro Martinez

 

Yeah, what a disaster it would have been to have Pedro Martinez on your team from his age 27-33 seasons.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Here is the list of guys for whom that contact would have been Mike Hamptonish for the team:

 

Pedro Martinez

 

Yeah, what a disaster it would have been to have Pedro Martinez on your team from his age 27-33 seasons.

 

Yup. Pedro had a 188 ERA+, 1640/289 SO/BB, and was worth 52 bWAR in over that span. Hamptonish?

[Guest]

Since 2006, there have been 5-6 guys who would have been worth that kind of money during that timeframe, depending on how precise you want to be with $/WAR. Sabathia, Halladay, Lee, Verlander, maybe Haren, and Felix Hernandez. Felix is 3 years younger than the next youngest guy on that list.

Please remove pre-arb and early arb years from your list as they don't apply when talking about handing out a contract like this.

 

Then you have the injury nexus theory. First, once the innings start to pile up the wear and tear starts to accumulate. The risk of injury increases through a certain age until you find out whose arms are "built" to withstand that kind of strain without breaking. Also, pitchers very often undergo a significant change as their stuff diminishes in their mid to late 20's (e.g. - Z). Halladay and Lee emerged as elite pitchers at later ages. They were able to establish themselves as they aged and adapted. Who knows if guys like Verlander or Felix will be able to do so.

 

Sabathia is really the only one on that list that looks comparable to Felix as an example of a guy that was dominant at a young age that went on to be worth that kind of contract. One is not a trend I want to bet upon.

 

Look at the pitchers who were good to great through year 6 of their careers and then fell apart: Pedro, Webb, Oswalt, Zambrano, Peavy, Lackey, Sheets, & many more. It's a really lousy bet with that kind of portion of a payroll.

[imb]

Here is the list of top 25 pitchers (by fWAR) from 2006. How many of these guys would you have been happy paying $25M ever since then?

 

How many of these guys were 26 year old studs with a long history of stud-ism? What a useless list.

Fine. Let's take a look at a different list.

 

Here is the list of pitchers sorted by fWAR generated through age 26:

 

1 Felix Hernandez

2 CC Sabathia

3 Pedro Martinez

4 Zack Greinke

5 Kevin Appier

6 Mark Buehrle

7 Javier Vazquez

8 Matt Cain

9 Johan Santana

10 Tim Lincecum

11 Clayton Kershaw

12 Alex Fernandez

13 Carlos Zambrano

14 Roy Halladay

15 Steve Avery

16 Jake Peavy

17 Ben Sheets

18 Roy Oswalt

19 Mark Mulder

20 Brad Radke

21 Greg Maddux

22 Jon Lester

23 Barry Zito

24 Justin Verlander

25 Mike Mussina

 

kevin appier was coming off an injury at age 26

when alex fernandez was 26, he had struck out 7 batters/9 innings only twice

ben sheets was coming off an injury

mark mulder had just posted a 4.43 era

BRAD RADKE LMAO. When he was 26 he'd posted more seasons of 4+ eras than not. Because BRAD RADKE wasn't worth 175 mil has no bearing on felix hernandez.

barry zito had just posted a 4.40 era

John lester had only pitched three full seasons with results nowhere near felix hernandez

after steve avery's age 26 season, he'd posted 3-straight 4+ era seasons

 

im tired of going through these. You're taking albert pujols and saying he's not worth the contract based on the results of a bunch of ike davises

[Guest]

Here is the list of guys for whom that contact would have been Mike Hamptonish for the team:

 

Pedro Martinez

 

Yeah, what a disaster it would have been to have Pedro Martinez on your team from his age 27-33 seasons.

 

Yup. Pedro had a 188 ERA+, 1640/289 SO/BB, and was worth 52 bWAR in over that span. Hamptonish?

Yep, I misremembered Pedro's age when he went to the Mets. Add him to the very short list of guys that would have been worth it.

[Guest]

Considering that Felix is at the very top of that list, it doesn't make it particularly relevant what guys like Brad Radke did from 27-33. Looking at the remainder of the top 5, Sabathia was easily worth that money, Pedro was a bargain for that money, Greinke is only through 3 years but is still on track to provide 30+ WAR, and Appier is the disaster of the bunch, missing a full season and contributing "only" 27 WAR over 7 years. Even extend it down the list to guys who aren't in Felix's league and there's no true albatrosses to be found. Buehrle's the closest and he averaged more than 3 WAR/year for that timeframe and again, isn't in the same ballpark as Felix in terms of stuff and performance.

[Guest]

Since 2006, there have been 5-6 guys who would have been worth that kind of money during that timeframe, depending on how precise you want to be with $/WAR. Sabathia, Halladay, Lee, Verlander, maybe Haren, and Felix Hernandez. Felix is 3 years younger than the next youngest guy on that list.

Please remove pre-arb and early arb years from your list as they don't apply when talking about handing out a contract like this.

 

The actual contracts those players had didn't matter, it's looking backwards at the last 7 years and deciding who would have been worth 175 million over that time.

[Guest]

here's an interesting addition to the conversation:

 

1) Filter the list of pitchers by WAR through age 26.

2) Filter the list of pitchers by WAR from ages 27 - 33.

3) Compare

 

You definitely get some guys on both lists. Maddux, Clemens, Pedro (again, my bad). But you also have a really big disparity between the lists. There are a lot of pitchers who were great at the later age that didn't become elite until later in their careers like Halladay, Unit, Kevin Brown and Lee.

 

As I talked about in my last post, the profile of a pitcher often changes as he goes through his mid to late 20's. It is really hard to pick the guys who will survive as elite performers.

[Guest]

Since 2006, there have been 5-6 guys who would have been worth that kind of money during that timeframe, depending on how precise you want to be with $/WAR. Sabathia, Halladay, Lee, Verlander, maybe Haren, and Felix Hernandez. Felix is 3 years younger than the next youngest guy on that list.

Please remove pre-arb and early arb years from your list as they don't apply when talking about handing out a contract like this.

 

The actual contracts those players had didn't matter, it's looking backwards at the last 7 years and deciding who would have been worth 175 million over that time.

Yes, it really does matter where they were in their careers at the time of the decision.

[jersey cubs fan]

Since 2006, there have been 5-6 guys who would have been worth that kind of money during that timeframe, depending on how precise you want to be with $/WAR. Sabathia, Halladay, Lee, Verlander, maybe Haren, and Felix Hernandez. Felix is 3 years younger than the next youngest guy on that list.

Please remove pre-arb and early arb years from your list as they don't apply when talking about handing out a contract like this.

 

The actual contracts those players had didn't matter, it's looking backwards at the last 7 years and deciding who would have been worth 175 million over that time.

Yes, it really does matter where they were in their careers at the time of the decision.

 

If that matters then why are you including guys who aren't in his ballpark?

[CubColtPacer]

Even if Felix is worth a 7 for 175 deal if he hit free agency this year (which he might be) why do the Mariners do this now? They already had him for his age 27 and 28 seasons at 39.5 million total.

 

So they lose the protection they had in case he gets injured in the next two years. What did they get out of the deal in return? Did they get a discount? It certainly doesn't seem so as they are paying an average of 27.1 million over the length of the extension. I guess the only thing they got was certainty that a healthy Felix wouldn't leave, but what are the chances of that if they were willing to pony up the money later? And if they knew they weren't going to give the money, they always had the option of trading him after they got another year or year and a half of his production.

 

It seems like they are taking on a massive risk for little reward. And when you consider that the contract is questionable on top of that, it doesn't make much sense to do this now. If Felix was a free agent right now and he agreed to sign for 2 years 39.5 or 7 years 175, which would you choose?

[jersey cubs fan]

Even if Felix is worth a 7 for 175 deal if he hit free agency this year (which he might be) why do the Mariners do this now? They already had him for his age 27 and 28 seasons at 39.5 million total.

 

So they lose the protection they had in case he gets injured in the next two years. What did they get out of the deal in return? Did they get a discount? It certainly doesn't seem so as they are paying an average of 27.1 million over the length of the extension. I guess the only thing they got was certainty that a healthy Felix wouldn't leave, but what are the chances of that if they were willing to pony up the money later? And if they knew they weren't going to give the money, they always had the option of trading him after they got another year or year and a half of his production.

 

It seems like they are taking on a massive risk for little reward. And when you consider that the contract is questionable on top of that, it doesn't make much sense to do this now.

 

Everybody sees what is happening with the Dodgers, and other teams are going to have a boatload of money to spend in the coming years. Salaries will keep going hope. Plus, it makes it easier to tell the fans you are committed to your best players.

[sneakypower]

never ever ever give a pitcher a seven year, $25M per deal.

 

ever

 

His arm is going to fall off and go boom.

They'll have insurance, but it's still a lot o money.

insurance adds something like $8-$10M a year on the contract

[davell]

As Gooney said, you don't get awards for being the most efficient team. Its easy on paper to play things out, trade him beforehand, or even let him walk. In the real world though, Seattle did what any other team that actually gives a [expletive] about their players, fans, and perception does in this case: You show him the money.