The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Bull]

I am an Olt fan, not really a Vitters fan......But, Vitters put up a .304/.356/.513 line in AAA at 22, with 77K's in 415 at bats. Olt, at 23, put up a .288/.398/.579 line with 101K's in 354 at bats. Both in hitters leagues, Olt probably playing in MORE of one than Vitters even. Davidson? .261/.367/.469 in AA, neutral league for hitters, at 21. I'd rather get pitching and leave 3B alone, unless Headley or another established guy under 30 becomes available. Between Vitters, Villanueva, Baez, and Candelario, I think we'll find a solid 3B from within. Like I said, I'd take Olt, but I wouldn't be jumping for joy, the more I look at things. Davidson just seems a little redundant, not sure he's even as good of a prospect as Vitters.

 

Agreed. I don't see Olt as much of an upgrade over Vitters. I'd really like to see what he (Vitters) can do repeating half a season at AAA.

[Guest]

I am an Olt fan, not really a Vitters fan......But, Vitters put up a .304/.356/.513 line in AAA at 22, with 77K's in 415 at bats. Olt, at 23, put up a .288/.398/.579 line with 101K's in 354 at bats. Both in hitters leagues, Olt probably playing in MORE of one than Vitters even. Davidson? .261/.367/.469 in AA, neutral league for hitters, at 21. I'd rather get pitching and leave 3B alone, unless Headley or another established guy under 30 becomes available. Between Vitters, Villanueva, Baez, and Candelario, I think we'll find a solid 3B from within. Like I said, I'd take Olt, but I wouldn't be jumping for joy, the more I look at things. Davidson just seems a little redundant, not sure he's even as good of a prospect as Vitters.

 

Agreed. I don't see Olt as much of an upgrade over Vitters. I'd really like to see what he (Vitters) can do repeating half a season at AAA.

 

olt is a top 15 guy and vitters isn't even close to the top 100

[Guest]

Olt is more valuable than Vitters, but we of all fans should probably be cognizant of the risks with K rates that are already hovering at 25% at AA. If a guy believes in Vitters' ability to develop some selectivity more than Olt's ability to not be exploited at higher levels then it's not hard to see a team taking Vitters as a similar piece to Olt. The accompanying pieces might need to be greater, but we're talking about prospect v. prospect. there's not multiple standard deviations of value difference here.

[Rob]

Olt's a better prospect than Vitters more because of the glove than because of the bat right now.

[Guest]

and vitters' defense is probably the most likely reason he won't succeed. he's basically going to have to rake to make up for it, assuming he stays at third.

 

olt kind of feels like christian villanueva but with way more upside and power potential.

[Clem Fandango]

I think of the absolute best you can realistically get out of Vitters... a .300 hitting 3B who has 20-25 home run power, low K-rate (60-70 K's a year), about 40-50 walks a year, and average defense. That's what I envision being the absolute best Vitters can achieve.

 

Meanwhile, I think the absolute best you can realistically get out of Mike Olt is a .280 hitting 3B who has 30-35 home run power, not so desirable K rate (110-130 K's a year), about 70-80 walks a year, and gold glove caliber defense. That's what I envision being the absolute best Olt can achieve.

 

Obviously neither of those situations will be the mean, and are what I personally could see each of them doing at their peak value. But if you look at them today, Mike Olt already has better tools NOW than Vitters will have at his peak. Vitters will probably get more hits and strike out less, but Olt will draw more walks, hit more homers and likely be a far superior defensive 3B that Vitters will ever be.

 

That my opinion, anyway.

[davell]

Yeah, to be clear, I think Olt IS a better prospect than Vitters, glove being the big reason. Vitters likely won't stick at 3B, Olt can. I love rankings as much as anyone, but Olt seems like a Wil Myers type to me: Ranking is much higher than he's actually valued by other teams. Hell, I can even see Levine's comments about other teams liking Vitters more than we do being true.(no, not comparing those two individual value)

[davell]

Evidently Hairston Jr was on the radio this weekend and mentioned the Cubs as a possibility for his brother, due to his prior relationship with Hoyer. Interesting, since we've not really been connected and he reportedly was down to just the two New York teams. Soriano in left, DeJesus and Hairston platoon in CF and Schierholtz/Sappelt platoon in RF, with Hairston getting a start a week in LF for Soriano too possibly? I think it'd be a shockingly very productive OF.

[Guest]

yes, i would definitely take scott hairston.

[toonsterwu]

Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the Diamondbacks are interested in Mike Olt, and that he would be an integral piece if they were to deal Justin Upton to the Rangers.

The Diamondbacks seem almost certain to trade Upton at this point, and the Rangers have no immediate spot for Olt after their signing of Lance Berkman. There will surely have to be other prospects involved on the Rangers' end -- like perhaps Martin Perez -- but the fit in general is pretty good.

 

Considering there have been reports of the DBacks turning down Olt offers for Upton left and right, this seems fishy. Still, if it actually happens, and they are indeed sold on Olt, then that makes Matt Davidson available. Not the best 3B prospect, but he could probably be had for a whole heck of a lot less than what Olt would require

 

First off, I really like Davidson a fair amount. That said, I'm not sure adding Olt would necessarily make Davidson available. It's possible, but Davidson, defensively, is ... similar to Vitters, a guy you could see potentially being passable at 3rd, but in the back of your mind, you think he's probably going to end up at another position (I've defended Vitters ability to be passable at 3rd, if the bat played, for awhile now, but I like Davidson's defensive potential at 3rd a tiny tick better). Davidson's power should play at first if he's moved that way. In some ways, at first, he would profile similarly to Paul Goldschmidt, so if they opted to go young, it's conceivable they could try to deal Goldschmidt to a team looking for some pop.

 

Not saying Davidson will be moved or won't be traded, just that it isn't inevitable that he would be if they added Olt.

[davell]

Not Cubs related, but Boras got Soriano a 2/28 deal with the Nats. I'd say there's no question he finds homes for Bourn and Lohse now. Potentially involving the Cubs though, Hairston is making his decision this week.

[Clem Fandango]

Clippard, Storen, and Soriano is a VERY nice back end of the bullpen. Any chance they trade one of Clippard or Storen, though?

[Tryptamine]

Not Cubs related, but Boras got Soriano a 2/28 deal with the Nats. I'd say there's no question he finds homes for Bourn and Lohse now. Potentially involving the Cubs though, Hairston is making his decision this week.

 

Pretty shocked Soriano got a deal. With that said, the Nationals are so ridiculously loaded in every facet of the game. That starting pitching is amazing, the bullpen is amazing, that line up is probably the weakest point and even it is really really good. I don't see another team in the NL who is anywhere near as good as the Nats on paper.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Tryptamine

[mookie]

They are poised to win. I agree, on paper, they have to be the NL favorites right now. I like this move by Rizzo. He gives up the pick and spends a large chunk of payroll, but this is the type of move you make when the squad you are responsible for is this fleshed out. I called the Nationals winning that division last season, and I will be rooting for them to strike a much bigger blow this post season.

[davell]

Heyman said Yankees not involved and Mets balked at 2/8 on Hairston. If so, I think he's a good get for us, especially at that price.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Heyman said Yankees not involved and Mets balked at 2/8 on Hairston. If so, I think he's a good get for us, especially at that price.

 

His career .286/.317/.550 line vs. LHP would go pretty well with Schierholtz' .266/.319/.413 vs RHP.

[RammyFanny]

Heyman said Yankees not involved and Mets balked at 2/8 on Hairston. If so, I think he's a good get for us, especially at that price.

Some people think that price actually meant 8 million annual (obviously too much). Heyman's tweets aren't clear.

[Cubswin11]

Can Scott play any infield positions too, like Jerry? Or is he just an OF?

[Backtobanks]

Can Scott play any infield positions too, like Jerry? Or is he just an OF?

 

He played 2B (80+ games) at the beginning of his career, but basically has only played OF for the rest of his career.

[davell]

Heyman said Yankees not involved and Mets balked at 2/8 on Hairston. If so, I think he's a good get for us, especially at that price.

Some people think that price actually meant 8 million annual (obviously too much). Heyman's tweets aren't clear.

While true, he's been worth 7.7 WAR over the past 6 seasons. If you take away 10 and 11, its 7.3 over 4. At 2.0 last year, I could see 2/16 being his price. Not a bargain, by any stretch, but I wouldn't be pissed either.

[pitchcs]

C'mon, who's giving Scott Hairston $8M/year?

[davell]

By the way, we've still not even added Villanueva. We've heard nothing about any issues, so whats the holdup? Are we THAT unsure about DFA'ing someone? I gotta think there's at least a small trade brewing to open a spot or two up somehow or he'd have been added by now.

[davell]

C'mon, who's giving Scott Hairston $8M/year?

Probably nobody, but Ross just got 3/27, so I guess its possible that's his asking price. I read it to mean 8 mill over 2 years personally, just playing devils advocate.

[pitchcs]

True, but Ross has probably been a bit more of an "everyday player" than SHairston.

 

Interesting note -- I sat next to Cody Ross & Aaron Boone and their families at a luau last month in Maui. Got drunk and talked to him in the bathroom. Weird for him I'm sure, indifference for me.

[davell]

Wow, tough market for relievers. Juan Cruz just signed a minor league deal with the Phils. I'd take him over Camp anyway.