The 2012 Offseason Thread

[davell]

Evidently Hoyer mentioned we're considering a CFer on a deal close in length to Jackson's. Either one would be great to get, but I can't see why we can't get both.

[Guest]

Evidently Hoyer mentioned we're considering a CFer on a deal close in length to Jackson's. Either one would be great to get, but I can't see why we can't get both.

 

Who is the other one you are referring to that is not Bourn?

[davell]

Evidently Hoyer mentioned we're considering a CFer on a deal close in length to Jackson's. Either one would be great to get, but I can't see why we can't get both.

 

Who is the other one you are referring to that is not Bourn?

[expletive], got a phone call before I finished posting. Meant Upton.

[Cubswin11]

Evidently Hoyer mentioned we're considering a CFer on a deal close in length to Jackson's. Either one would be great to get, but I can't see why we can't get both.

What would we have to give up draft pick wise to sign Bourn?

[davell]

2nd. Likely pick 39 or 40.

[craig]

Evidently Hoyer mentioned we're considering a CFer on a deal close in length to Jackson's. ....

 

Apparently in some discussions, Hoyer also suggested that he's pretty comfortable with the position situation in the minors, but not so the pitching. My impression is that Soler, Baez, Almora, and Vogelbach are really good prospects. But that that they are all fairly distant; that there aren't a lot of other good position prospects; and that given their distance, that there aren't many position prospects close to the majors.

 

Of those who are in the upper minors, Jackson, Szczur, and Ha are three of the possibly better ones, and each at the CF position that is currently unblocked. By contrast we don't really have any good corner outfield prospects closer than Soler. So I found it interesting that of the three outfield spots that Hoyer is looking at, none of which are strong, that it's the CF spot, the spot with some depth of decent-if-iffy prospects in the high minors that Hoyer is looking at.

 

Maybe it's just because Bourn is there and they like him, whereas there are no 3B/LF/RF who are available. Maybe the Win-Now priority is stronger than we think. Obviously none of Jackson/Szczur/Ha are ready now, and while DeJesus is adequate as a necessity CF, Bourn would be a big Nowacrat defensive upgrade. It may also be that they don't take Jackson/Szczur/Ha very seriously at all.

 

If they aren't very comfortable with those three, though, it's hard to see how Hoyer could be very comfortable with the position landscape in the minors. The only other position guys north of Baez/Soler are Lake and Watkins.

 

Or, maybe I took the third-hand comments way out of context. Rizzo, castro, that's two young long-term positions. Possibly Barney, and perhaps they like Watkins/Torreyes/Almora/Baez as down-the-road 2B. 3B, maybe they still like Vitters, or else figure that will be for Baez? OF, maybe they figure that CF is the present hole, but down the road if they added one, that between Soler/Almora/Jackson/Szczur/Ha/Lake/Dunston/Martin, that they've got some numbers there.

[jersey cubs fan]

Evidently Hoyer mentioned we're considering a CFer on a deal close in length to Jackson's. ....

 

Apparently in some discussions, Hoyer also suggested that he's pretty comfortable with the position situation in the minors, but not so the pitching. My impression is that Soler, Baez, Almora, and Vogelbach are really good prospects. But that that they are all fairly distant; that there aren't a lot of other good position prospects; and that given their distance, that there aren't many position prospects close to the majors.

 

Of those who are in the upper minors, Jackson, Szczur, and Ha are three of the possibly better ones, and each at the CF position that is currently unblocked. By contrast we don't really have any good corner outfield prospects closer than Soler. So I found it interesting that of the three outfield spots that Hoyer is looking at, none of which are strong, that it's the CF spot, the spot with some depth of decent-if-iffy prospects in the high minors that Hoyer is looking at.

 

Maybe it's just because Bourn is there and they like him, whereas there are no 3B/LF/RF who are available. Maybe the Win-Now priority is stronger than we think. Obviously none of Jackson/Szczur/Ha are ready now, and while DeJesus is adequate as a necessity CF, Bourn would be a big Nowacrat defensive upgrade. It may also be that they don't take Jackson/Szczur/Ha very seriously at all.

 

If they aren't very comfortable with those three, though, it's hard to see how Hoyer could be very comfortable with the position landscape in the minors. The only other position guys north of Baez/Soler are Lake and Watkins.

 

Or, maybe I took the third-hand comments way out of context. Rizzo, castro, that's two young long-term positions. Possibly Barney, and perhaps they like Watkins/Torreyes/Almora/Baez as down-the-road 2B. 3B, maybe they still like Vitters, or else figure that will be for Baez? OF, maybe they figure that CF is the present hole, but down the road if they added one, that between Soler/Almora/Jackson/Szczur/Ha/Lake/Dunston/Martin, that they've got some numbers there.

 

While they may have a little bit of (weak) closer to the majors depth at the CF spot and are very limited in the corners, it is also true that they have competent major leaguers already holding down the corner spots and nothing in center.

 

Also, nowacrat? It's a professional baseball team. You field the best team you can within the parameters of your budget while maintaining a responsible view of your future. It's not an either or proposition. Signing a 30 year old CF isn't just a one year focus move. It also allows you to keep your underwhelming CF prospects in the minors at a pace that helps maintain their value as both trade chips and potential contributors when they are ready without being rushed.

[Guest]

Craig,

 

Have you completely written off Vitters & Villanueva? I know you throw an off-hand reference to Vitters at the end, but you ignore both in the body of your post.

[craig]

Craig,

 

Have you completely written off Vitters & Villanueva? I know you throw an off-hand reference to Vitters at the end, but you ignore both in the body of your post.

 

No. But I don't see either as especially good prospects. I see neither with high ceilings or high probabilities.

 

I like Villa, but he was only in A-ball, so he's not close. I see him as a guy who ideally could become a plus-defense .750-OPS type 3B. But becoming an .800+ OPS hitter seem way less likely than that he ends up being a <.700-OPS guy. I realize that the offensive norm at 3B has gotten quite low. So my good-defense .750-OPS picture, while probably not an all-star, could be a solid asset starter.

 

Vitters I think needs to be an .800+ OPS guy, because I don't think his defense will ever become more than average and is likely to remain variably shy of that. His baserunning will always be below-average. So he's got to be a strong hitter to make the composite worthwhile. It's possible.

 

I've long been fairly patient with Vitters, hoping that HR's would come. When many posters faulted his low walk rate, I always figured that if/when the HR's would come, the combo of HR's with his previously low K-rate could make him a very high average and high-slugging hitter. Central to that was the premise that his pure hitting/contact gift was strong. ('He hits everything, including off the plate, which is why his BABIP and slugging and IsoD aren't higher.....") But I'm doubting that his "pure hitter" gifts for see-ball-hit-ball are so special; may really be a more limited see-fastball-hit-fastball gift. So I still hope that he'll hit enough to make the composite worthwhile, but I don't think he's likely to hit so well that he'll be a major asset, And there's a fair chance that he'll never hit well enough to justify himself as a regular starter. I do understand that if he could continue his HR/power growth, and continue his walk-rate growth of last year, all while returning to the contact-guy-that-rarely-K's of 2011 (54K/229AB), then you'd have a really productive bat.

 

If I had a choice between signing a 4-year 3B versus a 4-year CF, I'd prefer the 3B I think, and take my chances with my CF prospects or with DeJesus. But the FA market is what it is, and CF is where a player of Bourn's caliber and age is available, perhaps at a non-horrific price. I don't think 3B, C, LF, or RF have anybody of comparable quality/age.

[Guest]

so you can see him having a .750-.800 ops with plus defense at third, but you don't like him as a prospect? also, it was advanced A this season.

[davell]

Berkman to the Rangers is interesting. Shocked they gave him 11 mill guaranteed counting the buyout. Wonder if it takes them out on Upton or Bourn?

[Clem Fandango]

Berkman to the Rangers is interesting. Shocked they gave him 11 mill guaranteed counting the buyout. Wonder if it takes them out on Upton or Bourn?

 

According to the latest report on Rotoworld, sounds like they're really trying to push an Olt centered package for Upton still. With Berkman in the mix, Olt is a goner.

[davell]

Yeah, I just saw that. Would love to get him for Garza. Would also love to get Upton, with Garza being the lead piece and being able to hold onto Baez.

[Clem Fandango]

I'd do either/or, for sure. Just hope they're both still available by the time ST rolls around for Garza to prove he's healthy and effective.

[craig]

so you can see him having a .750-.800 ops with plus defense at third, but you don't like him as a prospect? also, it was advanced A this season.

 

I like him as a prospect. "Ideally" I see Villanueva doing .750-OPS, perhaps even a shade higher.

 

But there are 50 prospects the Cubs have who, if they reach their "ideal", could be wonderful prospects. Valuation factors in my perception of likelihood. I hope Villanueva can become a .750-OPS guy, but I don't expect that or think it's very probable.

[Tryptamine]

Don't know how reliable the info is, but a couple people over on PSD were vouching for Joeby231 who said we're the leaders for Aledmys Diaz.

[Clem Fandango]

He also said we're likely to sign Bourn

[jumbo]

Don't know how reliable the info is, but a couple people over on PSD were vouching for Joeby231 who said we're the leaders for Aledmys Diaz.

 

In increasing order of legitimacy as an insider at PSD:

ABTY

JoeyBY

Marlin Bistro

[davell]

Don't know how reliable the info is, but a couple people over on PSD were vouching for Joeby231 who said we're the leaders for Aledmys Diaz.

 

In increasing order of legitimacy as an insider at PSD:

ABTY

JoeyBY

Marlin Bistro

I'd give Marlin 1st by far, based on history, he's broken quite a few things. Nothing yet this offseason, unless I'm missing one. His is a direct source.ABTY has been the MVP over there this offseason though. He's been extremely informative. His info comes from a wide range, not from Cubs sources, at least for the most part. Joeby? All I see is a guy making predictions on guys it makes sense we're after.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Marlin's a guy with at least one very good source inside the Cubs.

 

ABTY has more general industry contacts and basically gives us the insider rumor mill about what the other teams hear the Cubs are up to.

[WrigleyField 22]

If we wait a little longer on Diaz he won't count against our IFA budget right?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tryptamine]

If we wait a little longer on Diaz he won't count against our IFA budget right?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

He turns 23 on the 8th I believe. So as long as he's signed on the 8th or after he wont count towards the IFA budget.

[davell]

True. That said, I read an article in USATODAY on these two from Friday that didn't exactly paint a glowing picture. According to a writer, neither is as good of a prospect as Leonys Martin. Diaz has average skills across the board. Alvarez had the one good year and has fallen off since. Some teams are even looking at him as a pitcher. On Diaz, the writer said there's no comparison between him and Alexei Ramirez. His agen, Jaime Torres, thinks he could start out in the majors. Of course, that guy said the same thing about Concepcion. Neither is expected to come close to a Puig type deal. Unless I hear better things, Alvarez is off my radar. Diaz? Sure, he'd be a nice add, but with our depth at SS throughout the org, unless we massively overpay, I'd think he'd go to a team he'd have a better chance with.

[Guest]

True. That said, I read an article in USATODAY on these two from Friday that didn't exactly paint a glowing picture. According to a writer, neither is as good of a prospect as Leonys Martin. Diaz has average skills across the board. Alvarez had the one good year and has fallen off since. Some teams are even looking at him as a pitcher. On Diaz, the writer said there's no comparison between him and Alexei Ramirez. His agen, Jaime Torres, thinks he could start out in the majors. Of course, that guy said the same thing about Concepcion. Neither is expected to come close to a Puig type deal. Unless I hear better things, Alvarez is off my radar. Diaz? Sure, he'd be a nice add, but with our depth at SS throughout the org, unless we massively overpay, I'd think he'd go to a team he'd have a better chance with.

 

Here's the article: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/01/03/cuban-defectors-aledmis-diaz-dariel-alvarez-bidding-free-agent/1808243/

 

While Diaz doesn't seem like a great prospect based on this story and the limited news once he defected, I think it best to wait for guys like Ben Badler, Jesse Sanchez, Jorge Arangure, Keith Law, etc. to chime in.

[Clem Fandango]

I was about to say... WTF kind of useful info does USA Today have on Cuban prospects?