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Posted

You realize that the same could and should be said about the low end of their expectations, and that's what happened. The team performed on the far low end. And still wouldn't have lost 100 games had they not traded away half of what was good about the team.

 

No actually, it cannot. Your theoretical projections assume the team is trying to win. They were not. They never were. They fielded a team that would be bad enough to justify further selling off at the trade deadline. The fact that they may have projected to win 70 games on opening day doesn't change the fact that they were going to sell off veterans whenever possible, it is completely disingenuous to now pretend that wasn't their plan.

 

Proof of this?

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Posted

OK my mistake, i hadn't really realized that Theo goes water skiing in Cape Cod Bay all spring and summer long; seems like a weird contract stipulation

 

It's one offseason plus a partial offseason where we've already made three free agent signings. In this case, "half" is meant in the colloquial sense of "partial."

Posted

You realize that the same could and should be said about the low end of their expectations, and that's what happened. The team performed on the far low end. And still wouldn't have lost 100 games had they not traded away half of what was good about the team.

 

No actually, it cannot. Your theoretical projections assume the team is trying to win. They were not. They never were. They fielded a team that would be bad enough to justify further selling off at the trade deadline. The fact that they may have projected to win 70 games on opening day doesn't change the fact that they were going to sell off veterans whenever possible, it is completely disingenuous to now pretend that wasn't their plan.

 

Proof of this?

 

Not being in a coma the past year.

Posted

OK my mistake, i hadn't really realized that Theo goes water skiing in Cape Cod Bay all spring and summer long; seems like a weird contract stipulation

 

It's one offseason plus a partial offseason where we've already made three free agent signings. In this case, "half" is meant in the colloquial sense of "partial."

 

There's no point in referring to it in that manner, he's been here a little over a year.

Posted

Anyway, back to Scott Feldman.

 

In an imaginary world where Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood each take 1/5th of the starting load, and perform to their 2012 xFIPs (or 2011 in Baker's case), we'd have a 3.81 rotation xFIP, which would have been good for 8th last year.

 

I hate to even say it, but if we're taking the Cameron route, we might need to think about trading Wood and signing one more guy like McCarthy.

Posted
I get what you're saying but I have way too much else to be concerned with, in regards to the Cubs and life, that I can't even begin to think about 2014 right now. With these signings only being 1 year, maybe the plan is to sign a big name guy next offseason? It is frustrating this team probably won't be that good again next year but I just can't imagine they are willing to throw 3 years away at the major league level.

 

November 2011, I don't think you found many people on here who could imagine throwing away 2 years either.

 

I think most sensible people could.

Posted

I certainly think that a lost 2012 with a wave of deadline selling was what the FO envisioned as the likely scenario. Having said that, with the roster that left camp (especially the rotation), it was within the realm of possibility that the team could have been in or around contention. Had that been the case, do we still think they would have scrapped the whole thing?

 

It's irrelevant at this point and all of this argument is conjecture anyway, but I still don't see how there was a total commitment to losing in 2012, given the way they operated in the offseason (imo, the plan that would have maximized return while ensuring a lost season would have been to deal Garza, Dempster and Marmol prior to the season, given what they knew at the time). I think they took a bit of a gamble, hoping their potentially salable assets would perform well, but that the team as a whole wouldn't, so they could justify the sale. And with the exception of Garza getting hurt, it did (though Garza's value isn't going to be anywhere near where it was pre-2012, so that turned out to be a pretty big snafu).

Posted
it's a blatant distortion completely void of any shred of intellectual honesty

 

or as i call it for the sake of brevity, "typical kyle post"

 

Half means partial. Variance includes any outcome whatsoever. This is the world Kyle creates.

Posted
it's a blatant distortion completely void of any shred of intellectual honesty

 

or as i call it for the sake of brevity, "typical kyle post"

 

Half means partial. Variance includes any outcome whatsoever. This is the world Kyle creates.

 

Mariner's Revenge thinks I am some sort of God who creates worlds.

Posted
I get what you're saying but I have way too much else to be concerned with, in regards to the Cubs and life, that I can't even begin to think about 2014 right now. With these signings only being 1 year, maybe the plan is to sign a big name guy next offseason? It is frustrating this team probably won't be that good again next year but I just can't imagine they are willing to throw 3 years away at the major league level.

 

November 2011, I don't think you found many people on here who could imagine throwing away 2 years either.

 

I think most sensible people could.

 

I could, given the state of affairs. I couldn't imagine throwing four years away, and I still can't.

Posted
Anyway, back to Scott Feldman.

 

In an imaginary world where Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood each take 1/5th of the starting load, and perform to their 2012 xFIPs (or 2011 in Baker's case), we'd have a 3.81 rotation xFIP, which would have been good for 8th last year.

 

I hate to even say it, but if we're taking the Cameron route, we might need to think about trading Wood and signing one more guy like McCarthy.

 

How about signing a guy like McCarthy and pushing Wood to the pen until one of or both Baker and Feldman are traded? That would seem to be the most efficacious plan.

Posted
Guys, after we acquire Stanton, Myers, Bauer & Greinke you're going to feel pretty foolish about calling this a lost year.
Posted
Anyway, back to Scott Feldman.

 

In an imaginary world where Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood each take 1/5th of the starting load, and perform to their 2012 xFIPs (or 2011 in Baker's case), we'd have a 3.81 rotation xFIP, which would have been good for 8th last year.

 

I hate to even say it, but if we're taking the Cameron route, we might need to think about trading Wood and signing one more guy like McCarthy.

 

How about signing a guy like McCarthy and pushing Wood to the pen until one of or both Baker and Feldman are traded? That would seem to be the most efficacious plan.

 

Works for me.

Posted
Anyway, back to Scott Feldman.

 

In an imaginary world where Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood each take 1/5th of the starting load, and perform to their 2012 xFIPs (or 2011 in Baker's case), we'd have a 3.81 rotation xFIP, which would have been good for 8th last year.

 

I hate to even say it, but if we're taking the Cameron route, we might need to think about trading Wood and signing one more guy like McCarthy.

 

**too lazy to look it up question coming**

 

8th in baseball or 8th in the NL?

Posted (edited)

I'm gonna play with that WAR google doc and put in a 4 WAR year for rizzo, a 4 WAR year for castro, 2WAR at CF and 3B, some projections for the pitchers and see where we end up.

 

Where is that thing?

Edited by David
Posted
I get what you're saying but I have way too much else to be concerned with, in regards to the Cubs and life, that I can't even begin to think about 2014 right now. With these signings only being 1 year, maybe the plan is to sign a big name guy next offseason? It is frustrating this team probably won't be that good again next year but I just can't imagine they are willing to throw 3 years away at the major league level.

 

November 2011, I don't think you found many people on here who could imagine throwing away 2 years either.

 

I think most sensible people could.

 

I could, given the state of affairs. I couldn't imagine throwing four years away, and I still can't.

 

I agree. I would assume many thought we would be competing by the third year.

Posted
Anyway, back to Scott Feldman.

 

In an imaginary world where Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood each take 1/5th of the starting load, and perform to their 2012 xFIPs (or 2011 in Baker's case), we'd have a 3.81 rotation xFIP, which would have been good for 8th last year.

 

I hate to even say it, but if we're taking the Cameron route, we might need to think about trading Wood and signing one more guy like McCarthy.

 

**too lazy to look it up question coming**

 

8th in baseball or 8th in the NL?

 

All of MLB. Fifth in NL behind Phillies, Cardinals, Nats and Brewers.

Posted

So it's only parallel fronts if the ML team wins?

 

Well, yes.

 

Maybe we're not all talking about the same thing?

 

I meant "parallel fronts" as "MLB" and "the farm system." Not "International prospects" and "Domestic prospects" or something.

 

Farm system and McDonald's IMO

Posted
Anyway, back to Scott Feldman.

 

In an imaginary world where Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood each take 1/5th of the starting load, and perform to their 2012 xFIPs (or 2011 in Baker's case), we'd have a 3.81 rotation xFIP, which would have been good for 8th last year.

 

I hate to even say it, but if we're taking the Cameron route, we might need to think about trading Wood and signing one more guy like McCarthy.

 

**too lazy to look it up question coming**

 

8th in baseball or 8th in the NL?

 

All of MLB. Fifth in NL behind Phillies, Cardinals, Nats and Brewers.

 

 

Not bad.

Posted
it's a blatant distortion completely void of any shred of intellectual honesty

 

or as i call it for the sake of brevity, "typical kyle post"

 

Half means partial. Variance includes any outcome whatsoever. This is the world Kyle creates.

 

Mariner's Revenge thinks I am some sort of God who creates worlds.

 

See? Land of make believe where Kyle is king.

Posted
I get what you're saying but I have way too much else to be concerned with, in regards to the Cubs and life, that I can't even begin to think about 2014 right now. With these signings only being 1 year, maybe the plan is to sign a big name guy next offseason? It is frustrating this team probably won't be that good again next year but I just can't imagine they are willing to throw 3 years away at the major league level.

 

November 2011, I don't think you found many people on here who could imagine throwing away 2 years either.

 

I think most sensible people could.

inherited players under contract for 2013: Soriano, Garza, Castro, Marmol, Barney, Soto, Randy Wells, Shark, Castillo, Dewitt, Clevenger, James Russell (and Jackson, Vitters, ...)

 

that group of misfits just combined for 14(!) WAR this year, so the FO would just need to buy...33 more wins and we could possibly sneak our way into a wild card spot!

Posted

inherited players under contract for 2013: Soriano, Garza, Castro, Marmol, Barney, Soto, Randy Wells, Shark, Castillo, Dewitt, Clevenger, James Russell (and Jackson, Vitters, ...)

 

that group of misfits just combined for 14(!) WAR this year, so the FO would just need to buy...33 more wins and we could possibly sneak our way into a wild card spot!

 

Now take out the players who had no business being on the roster to begin with and all their negative WAR.

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