Game 5 - BEARS @ Jacksonville Jaguars - 3:05 PM

[UMFan83]

DVOA is weird this early in the year.

 

Bears move from #5 to #9 overall. #3 defense last week, #1 this week week, however. #2 ST last week, #3 this week. #27 offense last week, #21 this week.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/week-4-dvoa-ratings

The Bears' DVOA actually went up from last week, but other teams' DVOA went up more due to the reconfiguring of opponent adjustments from 2011 projections (how teams finished last year) to 2012 results (how teams are this year). There's basically a steep dropoff after #9 (Minny), and then a vast ocean between #11 (Seattle) and #13 (Philly).

 

Yeah I was gonna say. Week 4 is when they factor in the strength of the opponents they've played. They don't do it the first 3 weeks because its too skewed by a small sample size. One of The FO guys was on Simmons podcast and explained all of that.

[rawaction]

If there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to be defensively. The D hasn't exactly carried the team this year, but did have all the momentum plays (TD give them a 10 pt lead, TD to give them 14 point lead, INT as Dallas looked to close the lead to 7). I'm not saying the defense won't play as hard or necessarily won't play as well as they have, but it's easy to get up for the season opener vs. a rookie. It's easy to get up for Aaron Rodgers. It's easy to get up for Tony Romo.

 

Someone mentioned this game reminding them of the Eagles game, but after the Eagles game 2 years ago (Sunday night game), the 8-3 Bears (on a 4-game win streak) went into 2-9 Detroit and kind of went through the motions. The defense didn't play horribly, but didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. Stanton had a 102 QB rating.

 

Part of me is expecting that type of game again. The defense has more veteran players possibly looking forward to the off week and dreading the short week. They are more "comfortable" in their ability to make a play when needed. The offense came to life this week, meaning less pressure on the D to force the action and try to score some points to help out the O. But it's hard for me to imagine any way for the Jags to score more than the 2 TDs the MAX the Bears D has allowed to anyone this season. And if the Jags can't get more than 17, they aren't going to win. I'd rather not have to deal with much drama in this game though, so hopefully I'm way off base here.

[cubbyvirus00]

I don't envision a letdown with the Jags. Stop the run and its game over.

[Rizzo Smash]

I would be angry if the Bears don't start this season 7-1.

@ Jacksonville Win 4-1

Bye

VS Detroit (MNF) Win 5-1

Carolina Win 6-1

@ Tennessee Win 7-1

 

And then you have:

Houston SNF

@ San Francisco MNF

Minnesota

Seattle

@ Minnesota

Green Bay

@ Arizona

@ Detroit

 

The 2nd half if a lot tougher but if you start 7-1, all you have to do is finish 3-5 and you get 10 wins and more than likely a playoff birth.

[jersey cubs fan]

I would be angry if the Bears don't start this season 7-1.

@ Jacksonville Win 4-1

Bye

VS Detroit (MNF) Win 5-1

Carolina Win 6-1

@ Tennessee Win 7-1

 

And then you have:

Houston SNF

@ San Francisco MNF

Minnesota

Seattle

@ Minnesota

Green Bay

@ Arizona

@ Detroit

 

The 2nd half if a lot tougher but if you start 7-1, all you have to do is finish 3-5 and you get 10 wins and more than likely a playoff birth.

 

You would be angry if they finished the first half 6-2?

 

Personally, I would not be angry. Perhaps I'd lament lost opportunity, but 6-2 would be quite nice.

[Magnetic Curses]

man, the second half looks a lot tougher than it did before the season started.

[Magnetic Curses]

but we can play with and beat any of those teams. the only team i anticipated a for-sure bad performance is the packers, whom despite having a [expletive] defense, still manage to give us trouble every single game.

[Banedon]

man, the second half looks a lot tougher than it did before the season started.

 

That largely depends if you're buying into the Cardinals and Vikings long term. It's the Texans/49ers back to back that still seems like the real potential speed bump for the season.

 

Unrelated, but a pretty good article about how people are tired of the "Cutler is a jerk" story....

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/47246/the-jay-cutler-personality-debate-is-over

[rawaction]

man, the second half looks a lot tougher than it did before the season started.

Yeah Seattle, Arizona and Minnesota look a lot better than expected. Still Id be pretty disappointed by a 3-5 finish. 4-4 worst case and it wouldnt give me much hope if none of the wins were vs SF, GB, Arizona, or Houston...meaning 0 wins over likely playoff teams as of now.

[jersey cubs fan]

man, the second half looks a lot tougher than it did before the season started.

 

That largely depends if you're buying into the Cardinals and Vikings long term. It's the Texans/49ers back to back that still seems like the real potential speed bump for the season.

 

Unrelated, but a pretty good article about how people are tired of the "Cutler is a jerk" story....

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/47246/the-jay-cutler-personality-debate-is-over

 

It is unacceptable to disrespect a coach yet every single QB in the history of the game has had a heated argument with a coach.

 

Does not compute.

[Banedon]

man, the second half looks a lot tougher than it did before the season started.

 

That largely depends if you're buying into the Cardinals and Vikings long term. It's the Texans/49ers back to back that still seems like the real potential speed bump for the season.

 

Unrelated, but a pretty good article about how people are tired of the "Cutler is a jerk" story....

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/47246/the-jay-cutler-personality-debate-is-over

 

It is unacceptable to disrespect a coach yet every single QB in the history of the game has had a heated argument with a coach.

 

Does not compute.

 

The point I heard being made yesterday is that it's fine to argue, but that walking away is disrespectful.

[jersey cubs fan]

man, the second half looks a lot tougher than it did before the season started.

 

That largely depends if you're buying into the Cardinals and Vikings long term. It's the Texans/49ers back to back that still seems like the real potential speed bump for the season.

 

Unrelated, but a pretty good article about how people are tired of the "Cutler is a jerk" story....

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/47246/the-jay-cutler-personality-debate-is-over

 

It is unacceptable to disrespect a coach yet every single QB in the history of the game has had a heated argument with a coach.

 

Does not compute.

 

The point I heard being made yesterday is that it's fine to argue, but that walking away is disrespectful.

Except when there is an actual argument the QB is being disrespectful.

[Soul]

The point I got from the article is that the swirl on this thing is now tired and boring. And I agree with that.

[Banedon]

Except when there is an actual argument the QB is being disrespectful.

 

I agree. They were all bad arguments.

[sneakypower]

Cutler was PFF's highest-rated QB this week, Marshall the 2nd highest-rated WR

So this week it was the turn of ‘Good Jay’ to show up, and as you know, when he’s good, he is very good. He went to work all over the field and handled everything the Cowboys threw at him. Heck, even when the Cowboys got pressure he responded with a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3 with 83.3% of passes complete and a touchdown. Nice day.

 

...

With some fine performances from Roddy White, Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe, these guys had to play lights out to make this team. Hartline had a career day with a quite incredible 253 yards, while Marshall reminded Brandon Carr that he’s still the player that tormented him as a rookie.

[Banedon]

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/10/03/listen-bear-down-remixes/

 

I prefer the sitar version.

[jersey cubs fan]

The point I got from the article is that the swirl on this thing is now tired and boring. And I agree with that.

 

The point I got is this guy is disgusted by Cutler but tired of getting crapped on for being such a douchebag about displaying his disgust for Cutler.

[UMFan83]

I saw this today and I just had to laugh:

 

http://s9.postimage.org/ey0v3mun1/photo.jpg

[Magnetic Curses]

Cutler was PFF's highest-rated QB this week, Marshall the 2nd highest-rated WR

So this week it was the turn of ‘Good Jay’ to show up, and as you know, when he’s good, he is very good. He went to work all over the field and handled everything the Cowboys threw at him. Heck, even when the Cowboys got pressure he responded with a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3 with 83.3% of passes complete and a touchdown. Nice day.

 

...

With some fine performances from Roddy White, Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe, these guys had to play lights out to make this team. Hartline had a career day with a quite incredible 253 yards, while Marshall reminded Brandon Carr that he’s still the player that tormented him as a rookie.

 

my packers fan friend calls bad jay "Chip". I have no idea why.

[Soul]

The point I got from the article is that the swirl on this thing is now tired and boring. And I agree with that.

 

The point I got is this guy is disgusted by Cutler but tired of getting crapped on for being such a douchebag about displaying his disgust for Cutler.

 

Heh, yeah: I give up, I hate this guy but too many tweets against me.

[bukie]

BEARS-JAGUARS

 

Bears offense vs. Jaguars defense

 

After a loss at Green Bay earlier this season, Jay Cutler was asked why he wasn’t able to get the ball to Brandon Marshall more. "Two man," he answered. (In true Cutler fashion, "two man" was literally his entire answer.) Cutler’s offensive coordinator, Mike Tice, observed the ease with which Green Bay eliminated his top outside weapon. A press-man defender underneath and safety over the top was all it took.

Facing a Cowboys team last Monday night that’s big on man coverage, Tice made the adjustment of using Marshall more inside. Just about all of Marshall’s seven receptions came with him in the slot or off some sort of interior motion. It's a great tactic; not only does the absence of a sideline make it harder and more expensive to double-team an inside receiver, but the nature of most defensive alignments requires that a linebacker or strong safety be part of those double teams. No linebacker or strong safety is equipped to guard Marshall. Will Tice employ this tactic if the Jaguars play their traditional two-deep zones on Sunday? The Jaguars corners played well in man coverage at Cincinnati last week. (The catches A.J. Green had were just spectacular plays by a budding star.) That said, the Jags are primarily a zone team and they’ll probably want to use a comfortable scheme against a Bears offense that has more firepower than Cincinnati. Tice must not let Jacksonville’s plainness coax him away from creative designs for his top receiver.

 

Jaguars offense vs. Bears defense

 

A realistic over/under on total Blaine Gabbert sacks this game would be seven. The Bears have a fervid pass rush, highlighted by the multiplicity of Julius Peppers’ alignments. The 11th-year star regularly lines up in all four different positions, seeking specific matchups he wants to exploit. Choosing a matchup along Jacksonville’s line will feel like trying to choose an item off a Cheesecake Factory menu. There’s left tackle Eugene Monroe, who hasn’t shown the improved raw power that many hoped for this season. There’s left guard Eben Britton, whom Marvin Lewis should have given a game ball to for his work in the first half of Cincinnati’s win last week. Britton could lose his starting job to undrafted rookie Mike Brewster this week. Another enticing opponent for Peppers is right tackle Cameron Bradfield, who simply hasn’t shown the necessary foot speed to pass block at an NFL level.

[bukie]

Team efficiency numbers through a quarter of the season:

 

Team offense: 21st

Passing offense: 19th (slightly above average efficiency, 11 teams below mean)

Rushing offense: 22nd (slightly below average efficiency, 24 teams below mean)

Offensive line: 23rd run blocking, 28th pass blocking

Offensive line blocking yards distribution: left tackle 22nd, left guard 23rd, center 26th, right guard 15th, right tackle 2nd

 

Team defense: 1st

Passing defense: 1st

Rushing defense: 18th

Defense vs specific receivers: #1 WR: 7th, #2 WR: 1st, Slot WR: 2nd, TE: 13th, RB: 12th (only team in league above average vs all receivers)

Defensive line: 5th in run defense, 7th in pass rush

Defensive line efficiency distribution: left end 12th, left inside tackle 31st, middle 14th, right inside tackle 3rd, right end 5th

 

Special teams: 1st

FG/XP: 5th

Kickoffs: 2nd

Kick returns: 7th

Punting: 10th

Punt returns: 8th (again, only team in the league above average in all facets)

"Luck": 32nd (advantage from elements out of team control, like opposing FGs, kickoff distance, punt distance...they have the biggest disadvantage in the league in this area thus far)

[UMFan83]

Interesting about the luck.

 

Also with regards to the defense. In past years, the Bears have performed much better against the run than against the pass. I would expect the run defense to improve.

[rawaction]

Team efficiency numbers through a quarter of the season:

 

Team offense: 21st

Passing offense: 19th (slightly above average efficiency, 11 teams below mean)

Rushing offense: 22nd (slightly below average efficiency, 24 teams below mean)

Offensive line: 23rd run blocking, 28th pass blocking

Offensive line blocking yards distribution: left tackle 22nd, left guard 23rd, center 26th, right guard 15th, right tackle 2nd

 

Team defense: 1st

Passing defense: 1st

Rushing defense: 18th

Defense vs specific receivers: #1 WR: 7th, #2 WR: 1st, Slot WR: 2nd, TE: 13th, RB: 12th (only team in league above average vs all receivers)

Defensive line: 5th in run defense, 7th in pass rush

Defensive line efficiency distribution: left end 12th, left inside tackle 31st, middle 14th, right inside tackle 3rd, right end 5th

 

Special teams: 1st

FG/XP: 5th

Kickoffs: 2nd

Kick returns: 7th

Punting: 10th

Punt returns: 8th (again, only team in the league above average in all facets)

"Luck": 32nd (advantage from elements out of team control, like opposing FGs, kickoff distance, punt distance...they have the biggest disadvantage in the league in this area thus far)

 

Quick glance at these numbers show me: Henry Melton has been really good. DJ Moore has been much better than I thought (had a great STL game, I thought he was below avg vs. Dallas, but didn't give up big plays and had 9 tackles). The Bears do seem like they've had their share of amazing punts against them. Now that I look....

 

Opener- McAfee had punts of 63, 57, and 54. His other 2 punts were under 50, but were downed at the 3 and 5, respectively.

Week 2, Masthay had punts of 56, 57, 54...with 2 other punts inside the 20.

Week 3, Hekker had punts of 56, 55, and 52

Week 4, Moorman didn't have any huge punts, but he had kicks get downed at the 6 twice.

 

A couple of these were touchbacks, but still these are amazing punts for kickers who's primary goal is to keep the ball away from Hester. We've seen several punters shank a ball trying to pin Hester toward the sidelines. Nobody is doing that so far this year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I wonder if the Bears can go through a first quarter without starting multiple drives inside their own 10. That scares me every time.