2013

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs problem is the lack of stars and too many black holes. You can get by with scrubs if you have stars and you can get by without stars if you have no scrubs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Using fangraphs and dividing DeJesus's WAR up by playing time, I come up with the Cubs getting below-replacement performances from the entire positions of 3b and CF. Catcher made it to a fractional positive WAR because of Castillo's late surge.

 

The bullpen managed to be worth -1.4 WAR as a whole, the only below replacement bullpen in baseball.

 

These weren't your ordinary, run of the mill scrubs.

[23sharks]

But as much as I'm for the apparent way things are headed, if we're not pushing for the playoffs in 2014 and beginning a dominant run in 2015, I'll be pissed as hell. Because even I'll admit that's more than enough time to get this thing done in.

 

 

No one is going to tolerate this thing going beyond next year. And I don't think they'll have to.

 

I hope you're right, but they have a LOT of work to do before they are competitive. They need at least 4 more good everyday players, a couple of starters, and a few relievers. With most of their top prospects in the lower levels, they probably won't get much immediate help there either. I'd like to believe they'll get it together soon rather than later, but I think it's gonna take at least a couple more years.

[Guest]

But as much as I'm for the apparent way things are headed, if we're not pushing for the playoffs in 2014 and beginning a dominant run in 2015, I'll be pissed as hell. Because even I'll admit that's more than enough time to get this thing done in.

 

 

No one is going to tolerate this thing going beyond next year. And I don't think they'll have to.

 

I hope you're right, but they have a LOT of work to do before they are competitive. They need at least 4 more good everyday players, a couple of starters, and a few relievers. With most of their top prospects in the lower levels, they probably won't get much immediate help there either. I'd like to believe they'll get it together soon rather than later, but I think it's gonna take at least a couple more years.

 

Seeing as how they are doing pretty well at 5 of them, I'm not sure how they need 4 (in the short term, that is).

 

If they just fill the black hole that is CF, they will be in much better shape in terms of the position players.

 

As for a couple of starters, I'm pretty confident that will be addressed this offseason.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

An ordinary bullpen, an ordinary 3b and CF and replenishing the rotation to what it was before the deadline makes this a decent team.

[Clem Fandango]

My dream scenario:

 

Sign Brandon McCarthy, Edwin Jackson, BJ Upton. Trade Brett Jackson & other prospect(s) for Mike Olt. Trade Vitters and/or other players and prospects for a couple relievers (I don't know who, anyone better than what we have).

 

Garza, McCarthy, Jackson, Samardzija is immediately one of the top 1-4 rotations in the NL. We have an infield of Rizzo, Barney, Castro, Olt, Castillo which is not only an infield for the future, but a damn good defensive infield at that. Outfield of Soriano, Upton, DeJesus which is a pretty damn good defensive outfield (assuming Soriano is being used properly still) and a decent offensive one, too.

 

That's a pretty damn good team....... but it won't likely happen (even though it probably could happen if they wanted it to). And that makes me sigh.

[Guest]

My dream scenario:

 

Sign Brandon McCarthy, Edwin Jackson, BJ Upton. Trade Brett Jackson & other prospect(s) for Mike Olt. Trade Vitters and/or other players and prospects for a couple relievers (I don't know who, anyone better than what we have).

 

Garza, McCarthy, Jackson, Samardzija is immediately one of the top 1-4 rotations in the NL. We have an infield of Rizzo, Barney, Castro, Olt, Castillo which is not only an infield for the future, but a damn good defensive infield at that. Outfield of Soriano, Upton, DeJesus which is a pretty damn good defensive outfield (assuming Soriano is being used properly still) and a decent offensive one, too.

 

That's a pretty damn good team....... but it won't likely happen (even though it probably could happen if they wanted it to). And that makes me sigh.

 

I can't imagine any package for Olt where Jackson would be the centerpiece prospect.

[El Duderino]

My dream scenario:

 

Sign Brandon McCarthy, Edwin Jackson, BJ Upton. Trade Brett Jackson & other prospect(s) for Mike Olt. Trade Vitters and/or other players and prospects for a couple relievers (I don't know who, anyone better than what we have).

 

Garza, McCarthy, Jackson, Samardzija is immediately one of the top 1-4 rotations in the NL. We have an infield of Rizzo, Barney, Castro, Olt, Castillo which is not only an infield for the future, but a damn good defensive infield at that. Outfield of Soriano, Upton, DeJesus which is a pretty damn good defensive outfield (assuming Soriano is being used properly still) and a decent offensive one, too.

 

That's a pretty damn good team....... but it won't likely happen (even though it probably could happen if they wanted it to). And that makes me sigh.

 

I can't imagine any package for Olt where Jackson would be the centerpiece prospect.

 

You can't imagine it because it doesn't exist.

[Clem Fandango]

Jackson and Vogelbach?

[davell]

If Texas trades Olt, wouldn't it be much more likely, it'd be for something thats going to definitively help their major league roster? They already have a great system, as it is.

[Clem Fandango]

No, they wouldn't do that trade, but like I said, dream scenario. I'm not sure what else we could offer that we could be able to afford to lose in getting him. I wouldn't want to give up Baez, Soler, Vizacaino, or Almora, but outside of Vogelbach what other prospects would we have that would be worthy of a deal for the guy?

[Guest]

it would take 2 of baez/soler/almora, and even then it doesn't really make sense for them.

[Guest]

it would take 2 of baez/soler/almora, and even then it doesn't really make sense for them.

 

I think that's going too far the other way. Baez is near his level as a prospect, although further away. I could see him surpassing him in terms of prospect status in the not too distant future.

[davell]

Baez will be higher on just about every prospect list than Olt.

[Guest]

Wittenmeyer with a piece that says what a lot of people here have been saying...

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/15548216-419/theo-epsteins-major-remodeling-of-cubs-raises-red-flags.html

 

A year ago, Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts stood in the Cubs’ dugout on the last day of the season and said his big-market club did not need to consider rebuilding.

 

“The fact is, you get the right players on the team and they all stay healthy and they play hard, a team can go from 70 wins to 90 wins,” he said. “You can look at the Cubs a few years ago. I mean, things turn around fast.

 

“That’s the way we look at it for next year.’’

 

Then he hired Theo Epstein to rebuild the organization. He maintained the third-highest ticket prices in the game. And he presided over the third-worst season in franchise history. Along the way, the new front office became increasingly “transparent’’ in its willingness to sacrifice the present for the promise of “sustained success’’ in the future.

 

“They’ve sold you guys a bill of goods,’’ agent Scott Boras said.

 

Boras obviously has his own agenda when it comes to any team’s business ­practices. But his larger point was, “There’s no excuse for the Cubs to be in [fifth] place.’’

 

If nothing else, the front office has embraced a historically significant — and perhaps unnecessary — road to its promised land of eventual “sustained success.’’

 

No big-market, big-revenue team in the majors has undergone an intentional youth-driven, multiyear rebuilding process in the free-agency era.

 

“Big-market clubs have a tough time telling fans they’re in a rebuilding [phase],” said Bob Gebhard, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ vice president and special assistant who spent championship years with the Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals. “When I was with St. Louis, we could never openly say we were rebuilding because of the fan base.’’

 

To their credit, the Cubs’ top execs have been increasingly transparent — from pursuing discount free agents in the offseason to the roster-churn of big-leaguers for prospects at the trade deadline to the willingness to finish among the worst if they can’t finish first to assure higher draft picks.

 

“We’re not trying to hide the ball,” Epstein said in the final days of the season. “We’re trying to be honest with [the fans]. There might be some tough things we have to tell them along the way. There might be another trade deadline in our future where we trade away about 40 percent of a really good rotation.’’

 

The idea, he has said repeatedly, is to build a strong and steady pipeline of homegrown players that will assure that “sustained success,” supplemented only then by flexing the big-market muscle to add any lacking piece or two needed to get over the top in a given year.

 

Which raises this issue: There’s no apparent reason to resist spending on some competitive players (read: starting pitchers) unless it’s to cannibalize the big-league side to accelerate the growth on the minor-league side.

 

Epstein, general manager Jed Hoyer, scouting boss Jason McLeod and the rest of the front office knew amateur-signing restrictions were coming when they took their jobs, but it wasn’t until they settled into their new offices that they learned how draconian the draft and international free-agent spending limits would be.

 

By their own accounts, the Cubs expected to spend more than $20 million on over-slot talent deep in the draft — as Epstein and Hoyer had in Boston and San Diego before. But MLB capped the Cubs’ draft allotment at less than $9 million — under penalty of lost future picks. And limits on international signings went into effect in July, just after they inked Jorge Soler to that nine-year, $30 million deal.

 

Bottom line: Ricketts has repeatedly said that the baseball operations budget as a percentage of the overall budget would not be cut, leaving the baseball boss the flexibility to allot it toward amateurs, scouting capital or major-league payroll.

 

But the Cubs have freed up more than $50 million in payroll obligations into 2013, at a time they’re no longer allowed to spend Soler money on amateurs and a year after they made one-time capital investments in such scouting/development tools as a fleet of cars for scouts, cameras at minor-league ballparks, hand-held equipment and computers for scouts and a proprietary software system to manage the information.

 

Cubs officials have said throughout the year that the system was worse off than originally thought (evaluators outside the organization offer mixed opinions on that). And they don’t have any plans to go all in yet on a push to be competitive — despite Hoyer’s recent assertion of an “aggressive’’ search for free-agent pitching this offseason.

 

“We have a plan and a vision, and it’s not going to happen overnight,’’ Epstein said. “There’s a choice: You can take a Band-Aid approach to things and try to polish it up as best we can and make that presentable and squeeze every last fan we can in and deal with [improving] next year. Or say, ‘We want to do this right no matter how tough it is.’

 

Even manager Dale Sveum talks about the offseason with hope, even joking about his “Christmas list’’ of CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee.

 

“We have the resources to [be aggressive],’’ he said. “How much money to spend, that’s not my field.’’

 

The short-term decisions have led to a scenario in which the Cubs have intentionally decreased the chances the team reaches the playoffs at exactly the time MLB has improved the odds of everyone in the National League by adding a playoff berth and removing a team (Houston).

 

Plus, it comes at a time the Cubs have their hand out to the city seeking public money to renovate Wrigley Field.

 

“That owner is sitting on a Mount Vesuvius of money,’’ Boras said.

 

What he and the front office chooses to do with it figures to have more to say about next season than anything Sveum, Anthony Rizzo and Jeff Samardzija do combined.

 

More at link.

[Cubswin11]

[expletive] off Boras, you [expletive] prick

[Guest]

[expletive] off Boras, you [expletive] prick

 

That's a lot of hostility for someone who is taking a perfectly reasonable position.

[Cubswin11]

[expletive] off Boras, you [expletive] prick

 

That's a lot of hostility for someone who is taking a perfectly reasonable position.

Boras is in the business of getting owners to spend all the money they have on players. The Cubs are sitting on a lot of money to potentially spend on FA, however it's not in their best interest to spend just to spend on guys and add pricey FA when the plan is pretty clear they want to build from within and then add the expensive guys to supplement what they can't fill from within in a few years.

 

There is no bill of goods sold here, they aren't trying to hide anything or scam anyone. The "excuse" for the Cubs to be in 5th place is because they are trying to rebuild the team from within right now, Scott. Sorry that means they aren't going to be giving out long-term dumb [expletive] contracts right now to guys who will be well out of their prime by the time they feel this team is ready to compete. Go call up Colletti or some other GM who will buy your snake oil.

[Guest]

[expletive] off Boras, you [expletive] prick

 

That's a lot of hostility for someone who is taking a perfectly reasonable position.

Boras is in the business of getting owners to spend all the money they have on players. The Cubs are sitting on a lot of money to potentially spend on FA, however it's not in their best interest to spend just to spend on guys and add pricey FA when the plan is pretty clear they want to build from within and then add the expensive guys to supplement what they can't fill from within in a few years.

 

There is no bill of goods sold here, they aren't trying to hide anything or scam anyone. The "excuse" for the Cubs to be in 5th place is because they are trying to rebuild the team from within right now, Scott. Sorry that means they aren't going to be giving out long-term dumb [expletive] contracts right now to guys who will be well out of their prime by the time they feel this team is ready to compete. Go call up Colletti or some other GM who will buy your snake oil.

 

 

It's pretty hard to justify them not spending money this offseason and completely tanking another season.

 

I could swallow it, but I would definitely prefer they start adding talent to the major league roster (and I expect that they will) and using the resources they have because they have no good reason not to.

 

You don't have to give out long term dumb contracts or be Ned Colletti or Jim Hendry to start adding more talent to this team. That's a strawman.

[mul21]

[expletive] off Boras, you [expletive] prick

 

That's a lot of hostility for someone who is taking a perfectly reasonable position.

 

For somebody in a position and with a reputation different than Boras, yeah, you're 100% right. But he very clearly has an agenda attached to his opinion and because of that, I agree with the OP. And, like Levine said, they've been pretty transparent about this whole thing.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

There is no bill of goods sold here, they aren't trying to hide anything or scam anyone.

 

Parallel fronts says what?

[Cubswin11]

[expletive] off Boras, you [expletive] prick

 

That's a lot of hostility for someone who is taking a perfectly reasonable position.

Boras is in the business of getting owners to spend all the money they have on players. The Cubs are sitting on a lot of money to potentially spend on FA, however it's not in their best interest to spend just to spend on guys and add pricey FA when the plan is pretty clear they want to build from within and then add the expensive guys to supplement what they can't fill from within in a few years.

 

There is no bill of goods sold here, they aren't trying to hide anything or scam anyone. The "excuse" for the Cubs to be in 5th place is because they are trying to rebuild the team from within right now, Scott. Sorry that means they aren't going to be giving out long-term dumb [expletive] contracts right now to guys who will be well out of their prime by the time they feel this team is ready to compete. Go call up Colletti or some other GM who will buy your snake oil.

 

 

It's pretty hard to justify them not spending money this offseason and completely tanking another season.

 

I could swallow it, but I would definitely prefer they start adding talent to the major league roster (and I expect that they will) and using the resources they have because they have no good reason not to.

It's justified if it's in their long term plan/best interests. But I agree there should be some additions given their money situation. I think they should also look to potentially extend Samardzija/Garza (if he is healthy) with their extra cash and maybe even work out a Castro/Longoria type deal with Rizzo.

 

I personally feel it's more likely that we add 4-6 guys for $2-5m a year that are in the buy low/reclamation/undervalued categories than it is we add 1 or 2 guys for like $12-15m a year. We have enough money to do both if they desire, but personally I don't see them giving out a big contract to anyone (Upton, Hamilton, Greinke, Jackson, etc.) and I think the money will be used to extend a few guys on the roster now and bring in quantity over quality.

[davell]

Not that there's a snowballs chance in hell of it happening, but if this IS the route we take, I want to see actual baseball ops budgets and how much we're saving now, that can and presumably WILL be spent later.

[Guest]

Not that there's a snowballs chance in hell of it happening, but if this IS the route we take, I want to see actual baseball ops budgets and how much we're saving now, that can and presumably WILL be spent later.

 

What's $20-30M gonna do to future budgets? You can't really just apply it to one year. If you budget it over 5-6 years, it's not really a consequential increase.

[Cubswin11]

Not that there's a snowballs chance in hell of it happening, but if this IS the route we take, I want to see actual baseball ops budgets and how much we're saving now, that can and presumably WILL be spent later.

I think when they feel they have developed enough guys from within and they are ready to contribute to the major league roster you will see the flood gates open and there really won't be any sort of monetary limitations to acuqire a guy through FA/trade if the FO deems it necessary to add a player(s).