Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-2-12

[JeffH]

Duane underwood @Dunder_wood3

Through my first live bp my first start is Aug. 5th #dreamin

 

Mildly disconcerting that he can't even spell what he does for a living.

 

Maybe he meant he's through (finished) with it. Or got through it without injury.

[THISisTHEyear09]

How high could Villanueva be ranked in our system?

[toonsterwu]

I'm having a change of heart on something (no, this is not a Torreyes-related comment).

 

I'm starting to think that Starling Peralta needs to be protected this offseason (before, I was thinking I'd like to protect him, but I can understand it if we don't). Not the best finish to his outing today, but still ... another solid outing. It might end up costing us a guy or two in Rule 5, but young power arms occasionally are gambled upon in Rule 5 (see ... Lendy Castillo), and Peralta's fastball is solid and able to hit mid-90's. There's been some improvement on his breaking ball. He's a 21 year old power arm, and he had a wonderful July and has been very, very good post-MWL ASB.

 

In my mind, I know he's the type of arm that teams might leave expose, as the chances of him helping in the next year ... or two ... are slim, and that it is only a good month and change. That said, considering where we are in rebuilding, I wonder if we should take that gamble, or protect the young power arm with starting potential. I also know that with Jose Rosario at the same level, it'd be tough to justify protecting 2 power arms just hitting A+ ball, particularly 2 power arms that could end up in the pen, but I wonder if now's the time to take that gamble.

 

Guys like Jay Jackson, Hunter Cervenka, Marcus Hatley, Austin Kirk, Brooks Raley, Dae-Eun Rhee, Zac Rosscup, Chris Rusin ... and heck, even Trey McNutt and Nick Struck ... they might be safer in some respects, but they are mostly end of the rotation/pen arm types (I'm noticeably leaving out Whitenack, who I think should be protected). They can be replaced with greater ease. There's very few guys in that grouping that hasa mid-rotation ceiling (maybe ... maybe Nick Struck if you think something positive can break his way) or end of the pen potential (I could see arguments for McNutt/Hatley/Jackson as end of pen potential types ... maybe even Rhee).

 

Anyhow, it's nice to see a nice young arm on the upswing.

[El Duderino]

How high could Villanueva be ranked in our system?

 

Top 10 no question, could be high as 5 when all is said and done.

[tspain]

What are your expectations for Torreyes? How much better is he going to be than Barney? Barney gives us great defense and a solid bat. What else does Torreyes bring to the table? I like him, just not all that excited about him. And yes, he is young, I understand that too. Just wondering why you guys are so excited about him.

 

Glad to see Christian got off to good start.

[toonsterwu]

How high could Villanueva be ranked in our system?

 

You could rank him as high as 5. Or he could be borderline top 10.

 

The big thing is ... what is his power ceiling? It's nice that he's hit two home runs today ... but up until now, the suggestion has been that he has average power potential. So, taking another borderline top 10 guy in Arismendy Alcantara, do you take the potential shortstop with average power potential or the potential 3rd baseman with average power potential?

 

Now, there are some that think Villanueva could develop a bit more power, and if that happens, then yeah, the argument for top 5 is ... buyable. A plus glove 3rd baseman with above average power, at his age and in A+ would be a very nice asset, even with his aggressive mentality.

[El Duderino]

What are your expectations for Torreyes? How much better is he going to be than Barney? Barney gives us great defense and a solid bat. What else does Torreyes bring to the table? I like him, just not all that excited about him. And yes, he is young, I understand that too. Just wondering why you guys are so excited about him.

 

Glad to see Christian got off to good start.

 

I love Barney, but Torreyes is a guy who could have an elite bat for a 2B while playing good defense. Not Barney defense, but good.

[toonsterwu]

What are your expectations for Torreyes? How much better is he going to be than Barney? Barney gives us great defense and a solid bat. What else does Torreyes bring to the table? I like him, just not all that excited about him. And yes, he is young, I understand that too. Just wondering why you guys are so excited about him.

 

Glad to see Christian got off to good start.

 

The positive scenario for Torreyes is much better than Barney. He might not be the defensive player Barney is, but in Torreyes, the positive scenario is an above average defensive 2nd baseman with good contact ability that has some pop. If Torreyes development is positive, whatever advantage Barney has defensively would be easily outweighed by Torreyes offensive ability over Barney.

 

I've been clear that I'm not on the Torreyes bandwagon, even now, even though I hope he proves me wrong (he would be a nice top of the order fit, something we badly need), but we'll get a clearer picture of his abilities this time next year.

[davell]

I'm the polar opposite of Toonster on Torreyes: I think the hit tool is totally legit. I see him as a solid defensive 2B, that can hit .300 in the majors consistently, with 35-40 doubles and close to double digit homers in his prime.

[tspain]

Barney is so much fun to watch play defense. He is outstanding. I love the guy's play. Wish he had a little more pop in his bat, but he sure hit a long home run two nights ago in the big 7 run inning, 3 run homer. Wish he was better with men on base, seems to get over anxious in the big situations to me. But I really like him. Had Detroit wanted him bad enough July 31, I would have had no trouble waving good bye though, to get another good prospect in the farm system.

[toonsterwu]

I'm the polar opposite of Toonster on Torreyes: I think the hit tool is totally legit. I see him as a solid defensive 2B, that can hit .300 in the majors consistently, with 35-40 doubles and close to double digit homers in his prime.

 

Wait, how's that the polar opposite from me? I've never argued against the hit tool as being ... illegitimate?

[El Duderino]

Boise Hawks announcer said no word on why Jose Arias didn't start for Boise last night. Weird.

[davell]

I'm the polar opposite of Toonster on Torreyes: I think the hit tool is totally legit. I see him as a solid defensive 2B, that can hit .300 in the majors consistently, with 35-40 doubles and close to double digit homers in his prime.

 

Wait, how's that the polar opposite from me? I've never argued against the hit tool as being ... illegitimate?

Polar opposite's not the right wording there obviously. I know you don't think the kid sucks or anything. I'm just much more sold he winds up as our longterm 2B than you are.

[toonsterwu]

I'm the polar opposite of Toonster on Torreyes: I think the hit tool is totally legit. I see him as a solid defensive 2B, that can hit .300 in the majors consistently, with 35-40 doubles and close to double digit homers in his prime.

 

Wait, how's that the polar opposite from me? I've never argued against the hit tool as being ... illegitimate?

Polar opposite's not the right wording there obviously. I know you don't think the kid sucks or anything. I'm just much more sold he winds up as our longterm 2B than you are.

 

That's fair. My argument, just to reiterate, isn't anything about the quality of the hit tool. My argument has always been, let's wait and see on a guy with one plus tool, and let's see how his secondary abilities develop. It's the exception when guys with one plus tool succeed to the point of being quality starters. There's a reason why, even with all the advanced metrics we have these days, teams still push for toolsy guys. You want to lessen the risk of a player, and multiple tools obviously helps.

 

Obviously, exceptions exist. My point, and I thought I had been fairly clear about it, has always been that I'm not going to jump on a bandwagon until I see him in the upper levels doing well. I'm almost certain that I've said for most of the year that I expected him to rake in A+. In fact, in one of those pre-season prediction threads, I think I said I thought he would do well in A+ and then hit AA this year, by midseason, and struggle, or something along those lines. Obviously, the chances of that happening now are slim, particularly since there's no rush (and Logan Watkins is having himself another decent summer again).

[pitchcs]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

[toonsterwu]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

 

The positive scenario for Torreyes is better, IMO. He's a better defensive player, and if things go well, he would provide similar offensive ability, potentially, with fewer K's (although I expect, even in a positive scenario, that his K rate would climb a tiny bit as he moves up the ladder, so the gap in the K rate might not be that much).

[davell]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

I was hoping no one would ever bring him up, so not to jinx it. But that's exactly what I see Torreyes becoming, minus a little speed.

[ScrubMD]

Duane underwood @Dunder_wood3

Through my first live bp my first start is Aug. 5th #dreamin

 

Mildly disconcerting that he can't even spell what he does for a living.

 

I actually made that same mistake today. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

[toonsterwu]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

I was hoping no one would ever bring him up, so not to jinx it. But that's exactly what I see Torreyes becoming, minus a little speed.

 

I've been avoiding this comp for another player in the Cubs system, and you won't get me to type it out (at least, I doubt I'll type it out at any point this year) ... but the positive scenario you guys are hoping for with Torreyes is to essentially become ... Dustin Pedroia.

[toonsterwu]

Really nice back to back games for Geiger.

 

Another hit for Marco. 8 game hitting streak. Of course, the last two times I noted positive things about Marco of late, he ended up doing squat, offensively, the rest of the game. By tomorrow, I should be able to note how Marco's last 10 games looks really good (right now, he has an 0-5 on 7/21 hurting things.

[davell]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

I was hoping no one would ever bring him up, so not to jinx it. But that's exactly what I see Torreyes becoming, minus a little speed.

 

I've been avoiding this comp for another player in the Cubs system, and you won't get me to type it out (at least, I doubt I'll type it out at any point this year) ... but the positive scenario you guys are hoping for with Torreyes is to essentially become ... Dustin Pedroia.

"You guys are hoping for", so it's official: you're pulling against Torreyes! Sorry man, had to, you left it open......Honestly, I can't see Torreyes developing 20 homer power, which keeps me from hoping for Pedroia. On the other hand, you see someone else in our system as a Pedroia comp? If so, I think it's pretty easy to see. I won't make you type it out, but his name rhymes with papaya.....

[El Duderino]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

I was hoping no one would ever bring him up, so not to jinx it. But that's exactly what I see Torreyes becoming, minus a little speed.

 

I've been avoiding this comp for another player in the Cubs system, and you won't get me to type it out (at least, I doubt I'll type it out at any point this year) ... but the positive scenario you guys are hoping for with Torreyes is to essentially become ... Dustin Pedroia.

"You guys are hoping for", so it's official: you're pulling against Torreyes! Sorry man, had to, you left it open......Honestly, I can't see Torreyes developing 20 homer power, which keeps me from hoping for Pedroia. On the other hand, you see someone else in our system as a Pedroia comp? If so, I think it's pretty easy to see. I won't make you type it out, but his name rhymes with papaya.....

 

lol, was gonna say, there aren't a lot possibilities.

[rawaction]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

I was hoping no one would ever bring him up, so not to jinx it. But that's exactly what I see Torreyes becoming, minus a little speed.

 

I've been avoiding this comp for another player in the Cubs system, and you won't get me to type it out (at least, I doubt I'll type it out at any point this year) ... but the positive scenario you guys are hoping for with Torreyes is to essentially become ... Dustin Pedroia.

 

I see Torreyes with more power than Altuve, but not as much as Pedroia. I think the glut of middle IF prospects that the Cubs have, will allow them to trade Barney this offseason if a team falls in love with him and is willing to throw a bigger need/good prospect the Cubs way. If they can fill 3B, they can get by with a Valbuena/Baker platoon until someone like Torreyes, Watkins, Alcantara, etc. make it to the bigs.

[toonsterwu]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

I was hoping no one would ever bring him up, so not to jinx it. But that's exactly what I see Torreyes becoming, minus a little speed.

 

I've been avoiding this comp for another player in the Cubs system, and you won't get me to type it out (at least, I doubt I'll type it out at any point this year) ... but the positive scenario you guys are hoping for with Torreyes is to essentially become ... Dustin Pedroia.

"You guys are hoping for", so it's official: you're pulling against Torreyes! Sorry man, had to, you left it open......Honestly, I can't see Torreyes developing 20 homer power, which keeps me from hoping for Pedroia. On the other hand, you see someone else in our system as a Pedroia comp? If so, I think it's pretty easy to see. I won't make you type it out, but his name rhymes with papaya.....

 

I'm not pulling against Torreyes, but read what you wrote for Torreyes: in his prime, .300 hitter, 35-40 doubles, low double digit home runs, solid defensive 2nd baseman. That's an elite player. Okay, Pedroia is on the high end of that comparison scale, but Pedroia has only had one year with above a .200 ISOP, with him mostly in that .150 area. Without taking the time to do mock calculations, the numbers you have for Torreyes would get him somewhat close to a .150 ISOP. That's ... All-Star contender each year in his prime. That's ... fringe shot at being a potential HOF type (I think a lot of people (granted, mostly Bostonians) are already suggesting that Pedroia has some HOF potential, but needs to do it for a few more years). There's very few guys (I'm sure there's one or two) that I have ever envisioned as being elite, particularly at this age and level.

 

If that's pulling against Torreyes, fine. I'm not envisioning a positive scenario that high. But ... that's an awfully high bar to set for someone in their prime.

 

Edit: Btw, I'm fully aware you are taking a fair jab at me. I'm aware there are times where it feels like I want a Cubs prospect to fail. That's certainly not the case, but I'm aware that it can come across that way. I just wanted to point out that the numbers you've put up there for Torreyes in his prime are awfully high. Not impossibly high, but it's on the high end, and I just tend to not envision such high end numbers for most prospects, at least not these days (I'm sure there's something online somewhere where I gave some high end expectation for Cubs prospects).

 

Btw, no it's not Amaya. I don't think Amaya will ever be good enough defensively at 2nd. It wouldn't stun me if Amaya ended up in a corner OF role. Give me until the off-season before I decide to be bold and even remotely say I see some similarities. To be clear, if you asked me, do I expect said player to become Dustin Pedroia-ish, I would say, heck no. I'm not crazy. But I see some similarities between the two, I actually thought it would be fairly obvious who I had in mind.

Edited August 3, 2012 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

Maybe a better question is....how does Torreyes compare to Jose Altuve??

I was hoping no one would ever bring him up, so not to jinx it. But that's exactly what I see Torreyes becoming, minus a little speed.

 

I've been avoiding this comp for another player in the Cubs system, and you won't get me to type it out (at least, I doubt I'll type it out at any point this year) ... but the positive scenario you guys are hoping for with Torreyes is to essentially become ... Dustin Pedroia.

 

I see Torreyes with more power than Altuve, but not as much as Pedroia. I think the glut of middle IF prospects that the Cubs have, will allow them to trade Barney this offseason if a team falls in love with him and is willing to throw a bigger need/good prospect the Cubs way. If they can fill 3B, they can get by with a Valbuena/Baker platoon until someone like Torreyes, Watkins, Alcantara, etc. make it to the bigs.

 

More of a side note, but I still think that Barney can play short in the bigs, at least, decently for a few years. I wonder if a team will take the chance on trying him there. Problem is, they need to see him play some short to consider it, and that's just not happening here unless Castro gets hurt.