Justin Upton

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

@Buster_ESPN: It still appears the Pirates and the Diamondbacks don't match up on a Justin Upton trade. PIT has pitching, but Ariz. priority is SS help.

 

Castro should be nowhere near the table. However, Darwin Barney and/or Junior Lake could be enticing pieces to a deal. However, we'd need a few much more exciting pieces as the centerpieces. Brett Jackson or Matt Szczur could be one of them.

Seriously? You could put the four of them together and Arizona would hang up laughing.

 

Probably not going to be enough either way but that is one hell of miss quote when you cut off the "Obviously, neither would be the main piece, which could come from the Dempster return." from the original post

Yeah, I realized that after I posted. But I still think the main piece in a Dempster trade could never be the main piece in an Upton trade, no matter how many of our flawed prospects you throw in.

 

Most prospects have their flaws, and there's no such thing as a sure thing. When trading an elite player like Upton, the key should be to get as many pieces in return with the potential to be substantial big league contributers. We can scoff at the idea of Brett Jackson as one of the key pieces, but he's been a Top 75 prospect the past 3 years, and top 40 the past 2. Despite his atrocious K rate, he still manages to keep his OPS well above .800, along with plus speed, power, and I believe defense.

[davell]

OK, so you're saying you'd basically trade Castro for a Brett Jackson-led package?

[SouthSideRyan]

OK, so you're saying you'd basically trade Castro for a Brett Jackson-led package?

 

No, but TT hasn't let it be known that Starlin Castro is on the block either.

[davell]

OK, so you're saying you'd basically trade Castro for a Brett Jackson-led package?

 

No, but TT hasn't let it be known that Starlin Castro is on the block either.

Actually, I was responding to WSR. But why would it matter if someone's on the block or not? I would think you'd want as many teams as possible to be bidding for a guy like that. And I don't think a single down season should affect the value THAT much of a guy like Upton(injury caveat obviously in play). I guess the question becomes whether a person thinks Upton and Castro have around the same value? Personally, I do.

[Little Slide Rooter]

OK, so you're saying you'd basically trade Castro for a Brett Jackson-led package?

 

A SS with plus offense isnt as easy to come across as a corner OF. This being said, if we were actively shopping Castro, while I'd want a Bundy/Machado package, if that wasn't on the table and we insisted on moving him, I'd begrudgingly accept a package like Gould, Jackson, Tolleson, and Barney or Lake. Again, if we were dead set on trading him and nobody was offering up 2 Top 10 overall prospects.

 

The thing is, in order to get that kind of package (the Bundy/Machado) for any player, there has to be that perfect storm of a team who has that package to offer, is willing to offer it, and wants or needs the player in question enough to be worth their while.

Edited July 18, 2012 by Little Slide Rooter

[SouthSideRyan]

OK, so you're saying you'd basically trade Castro for a Brett Jackson-led package?

 

No, but TT hasn't let it be known that Starlin Castro is on the block either.

Actually, I was responding to WSR. But why would it matter if someone's on the block or not? I would think you'd want as many teams as possible to be bidding for a guy like that. And I don't think a single down season should affect the value THAT much of a guy like Upton(injury caveat obviously in play). I guess the question becomes whether a person thinks Upton and Castro have around the same value? Personally, I do.

 

The point is, Arizona is open to trading him, therefore it's unlikely they're looking to trade him and expecting the world.

[sneakypower]

and there's the small detail that Castro doesn't have a degenerative shoulder injury

[StarlinOnYou]

I'd love to swing Dempster+Garza and use a piece or two from those deals along with what we already have for Upton.

[rawaction]

Getting 3 win players to surround your 6 win players is a lot easier than the reverse. Upton isn't a guaranteed stud, but that's why he's available. Be thorough with the medical aspect, and if it checks out, then go after him whole heartedly. Players of his caliber are very rarely available at his age.

 

I agree and understand all of that. But this isn't a Castro we're talking about, where he's super cheap and under control on a pure upswing in his career. This isn't Miguel Cabrera in Florida a few years ago, going to get too expensive for his team and already an established consistent 5-6 WAR player. Upton isn't guaranteed to continue to improve like Castro. Upton isn't guaranteed to get back to the 5-6 WAR numbers of 2011 (the only year he's been in that range), especially with the shoulder injury, and I'd think I'd want that if I'm giving up a lot of assets, including a ML player and a top 25 prospect (Barney, Olt)

[StarlinOnYou]

What is a realistic package for Justin?

 

Brett Jackson, Alcantra (young SS), and? How much do you have to add to this package?

[davell]

and there's the small detail that Castro doesn't have a degenerative shoulder injury

And that could very well be a rumor put out by a team trying to keep the price down. If it's true, you bid accordingly. Personally, I doubt there's any validity to it.

[Tyrant]

What is a realistic package for Justin?

 

Brett Jackson, Alcantra (young SS), and? How much do you have to add to this package?

 

You'd have to add an actual high-quality piece to the trade. They're not going to accept quantity over quality.

[Guest]

What is a realistic package for Justin?

 

Brett Jackson, Alcantra (young SS), and? How much do you have to add to this package?

 

Here's a sequence I daydreamed a few days ago.

 

Dempster for pitching

 

Garza for Olt and Perez

 

Barney, Jackson, Perez, Ha/Szczur for Upton

 

Sign Liriano, trade for another SP(use Dempster haul, Vitters, maybe Soto)

 

DeJesus/Castro/Rizzo/Upton/Soriano/Olt/Soto/Valbuena, Liriano/Samardzija/Trade/Wood/Maholm

[Little Slide Rooter]

What is a realistic package for Justin?

 

Brett Jackson, Alcantra (young SS), and? How much do you have to add to this package?

 

Here's a sequence I daydreamed a few days ago.

 

Dempster for pitching

 

Garza for Olt and Perez

 

Barney, Jackson, Perez, Ha/Szczur for Upton

 

Sign Liriano, trade for another SP(use Dempster haul, Vitters, maybe Soto)

 

DeJesus/Castro/Rizzo/Upton/Soriano/Olt/Soto/Valbuena, Liriano/Samardzija/Trade/Wood/Maholm

 

Mines somewhat more expensive, but with all of the money off the books between the end of last season and the end of this season, and guys like Castro, Rizzo, Wood, and Castill holding down important positions for very cheap, it's doable. Plus, with us off the hook for Marmol after 2013 and Soriano after 2014, we could do some front/mid loading:

 

Now:

-Dempster and maybe LaHair for Tolleson and Gould

-Gould, Tolleson, B. Jax, and Barney for Justin Upton

- unless something wonderful is offered, keep Garza. Work on an extension in the offseason.

-Shop Soriano, offering to pick up 95% of the contract. If nobody bites, or we don't get a good enough return, shop DeJesus.

-Shop Soto. If nobody bites, NT him.

-Shop Marmol: if nobody bites, keep him

-trade Baker, Johnson, and Camp for whatever we can get. Won't be much, but contenders will take them.

 

 

Off season

-either re sign Demp for a home town discount (2/22 or 1/12.5 w/ an option for 2014. If the prefer younger, try for McCarthy, A. Sanchez, or Marcum on. 3/40ish deal.

-Sign B.J. Upton to a 5/60, with a player opt out afte the 2nd or 3rd year

-pick up Maholm's 6 mil option for 2013

-sign Jonathon Sanchez to a Minor league deal w/invite

-Bobby Jenks or Brad Lidge to a minor league deal, or incentive laden big league deal

-invite various middle relievers and utility guys to ST.

 

Opening day: RF DeJesus, SS Castro, LF J. Upton, 1B Rizzo, CF B. Upton, 3B Stewart/Vitters, C Castillo, 2B Cardenas/Valbuena/Watkins/cheap vet

Rotation: 1. Garza 2. Shark 3. Demp/McCarthy/A. Sanchez/Marcum 4. Wood 5. Maholm (J. Sanchez in Iowa)

Pen: CL Marmol(unless traded) SU Lidge/Jenks (closer if Marmol traded), Russell, Cabrera, Beliveau, Dolis, J. Jax/Bowden/Parker

Bench: Clevenger, Sappelt, Campana,(LaHair if not moved) 2 of Watkins/Valbuena/Cardenas/cheap vet

[Backtobanks]

What is a realistic package for Justin?

 

Brett Jackson, Alcantra (young SS), and? How much do you have to add to this package?

 

Here's a sequence I daydreamed a few days ago.

 

Dempster for pitching

 

Garza for Olt and Perez

 

Barney, Jackson, Perez, Ha/Szczur for Upton

 

Sign Liriano, trade for another SP(use Dempster haul, Vitters, maybe Soto)

 

DeJesus/Castro/Rizzo/Upton/Soriano/Olt/Soto/Valbuena, Liriano/Samardzija/Trade/Wood/Maholm

 

Mines somewhat more expensive, but with all of the money off the books between the end of last season and the end of this season, and guys like Castro, Rizzo, Wood, and Castill holding down important positions for very cheap, it's doable. Plus, with us off the hook for Marmol after 2013 and Soriano after 2014, we could do some front/mid loading:

 

Now:

-Dempster and maybe LaHair for Tolleson and Gould

-Gould, Tolleson, B. Jax, and Barney for Justin Upton

- unless something wonderful is offered, keep Garza. Work on an extension in the offseason.

-Shop Soriano, offering to pick up 95% of the contract. If nobody bites, or we don't get a good enough return, shop DeJesus.

-Shop Soto. If nobody bites, NT him.

-Shop Marmol: if nobody bites, keep him

-trade Baker, Johnson, and Camp for whatever we can get. Won't be much, but contenders will take them.

 

 

Off season

-either re sign Demp for a home town discount (2/22 or 1/12.5 w/ an option for 2014. If the prefer younger, try for McCarthy, A. Sanchez, or Marcum on. 3/40ish deal.

-Sign B.J. Upton to a 5/60, with a player opt out afte the 2nd or 3rd year

-pick up Maholm's 6 mil option for 2013

-sign Jonathon Sanchez to a Minor league deal w/invite

-Bobby Jenks or Brad Lidge to a minor league deal, or incentive laden big league deal

-invite various middle relievers and utility guys to ST.

 

Opening day: RF DeJesus, SS Castro, LF J. Upton, 1B Rizzo, CF B. Upton, 3B Stewart/Vitters, C Castillo, 2B Cardenas/Valbuena/Watkins/cheap vet

Rotation: 1. Garza 2. Shark 3. Demp/McCarthy/A. Sanchez/Marcum 4. Wood 5. Maholm (J. Sanchez in Iowa)

Pen: CL Marmol(unless traded) SU Lidge/Jenks (closer if Marmol traded), Russell, Cabrera, Beliveau, Dolis, J. Jax/Bowden/Parker

Bench: Clevenger, Sappelt, Campana,(LaHair if not moved) 2 of Watkins/Valbuena/Cardenas/cheap vet

 

I posted in another topic the other day that if nobody wants Soriano and he continues being productive, we could be competitive next year with extending Garza, re-signing Dempster (offseason), getting lucky with 1-2 prospects, and spending some money wisely on a FA or 2 while still rebuilding.

[Clem Fandango]

I posted in another topic the other day that if nobody wants Soriano and he continues being productive, we could be competitive next year with extending Garza, re-signing Dempster (offseason), getting lucky with 1-2 prospects, and spending some money wisely on a FA or 2 while still rebuilding.

 

You're basically describing what the Cubs could've done this past offseason

[Have a seat, Neifi]

I'd love to see Upton on the Cubs, but I can't get past my burning skepticism every time I ask myself, "Why is a team still in contention, that made the playoffs last year, so eager to trade its best player where that player happens to be 24, coming off an .898 OPS season, and is still cost controlled?" It's either the shoulder, some sort of friction with the front office, or both. The whole thing screams to me "proceed with caution."

 

That said, The D'backs are not going to accept a pile of crap for him. This isn't Baseball Mogul; we can't overload them with a bunch of guys none of whom are named Castro or Baez and expect to acquire a 24-year old who finished 4th in MVP balloting last year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I posted in another topic the other day that if nobody wants Soriano and he continues being productive, we could be competitive next year with extending Garza, re-signing Dempster (offseason), getting lucky with 1-2 prospects, and spending some money wisely on a FA or 2 while still rebuilding.

 

You're basically describing what the Cubs could've done this past offseason

 

The difference is that last offseason, the only free agents that really would have fit in with the plan were Fielder and Pujols, and their respective bidding wars went well out of the range that we were willing to pay. Anything else would have been band-aids. I can't see the bids for, say BJ Upton and one of Sanchez/McCarthy/Marcum being as out of control. If this were the rout we went, even if Soriano does keep productive the rest of the way and we keep him, I wouldn't count on him repeating next year due to his age an knees. Still, if we can't get anything worthwhile in return for him, may as well ride him until the wheels fall off. Another factor could be Ian Stewart's response to the wrist surgery. It would be foolish to NT him without seeing how it works out. We'd also have Vitter's back at AAA splitting time between 3B and LF. I also wouldn't be opposed to checking in on some reclamation types such as Travis Snider or Michael Taylor.