Stewart's Crappy Luck

[CubColtPacer]

truth is even if he hits like he has in may, it's not good. 246 .338 .456 .795

 

NL 3B in 2012: .245/.315/.400/.714

MLB 3B in 2012: .249/.312/.402/.714

 

That .795 OPS Stewart has in May would put him fifth in OPS in MLB out of the 17 qualified 3B in 2012, behind only Wright, Moustakas, Beltre and Cabrera. Guys he would be ahead of include Freese (.787), ARod (.779), Hanley Ramirez (.753), Zimmerman (.697) and Lawrie (.690). It should be noted that, if not for injuries, Stewart would also be behind Longoria and Sandoval.

 

how about you compare his year to their years, or his "hot" to their best 18 games streak? I won't do the leg work but I am guessing that guys who are above .700 for 40+ games have an 18 game stretch of much better than their average.

 

here's an extreme example to attempt to illustrate the fallacy of using stewart's 18 games vs a season.

erik aybar has a 7 game split of .455 .455 .682 1.136 which puts him number 1 at shortstop in every single catagory and way above the average for MLB shortstops. Now it clearly doesn't matter that his seasons stat line is .228 .248 .297 .545, your thinking has just annointed erik aybar the number 1 offensive shortstop in the major leagues logic be damned!

 

That wasn't your argument though. You said this:

 

truth is even if he hits like he has in may, it's not good. 246 .338 .456 .795

 

Soccer just showed you if he hits like he has in May, that would be good.

 

Not whether he can keep up what he has done in May over a full season, that's a different argument. That's what posts like the one I made earlier tried to address.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think I'm not so much baffled by Neely spouting off a marathon of insanity as the fact that a who's who of NSBB's smartest posters are lining up to reason with him in their own respective ways.

[MSG T]

I think I'm not so much baffled by Neely spouting off a marathon of insanity as the fact that a who's who of NSBB's smartest posters are lining up to reason with him in their own respective ways.

 

What's even more impressive is the number of people that are normally at odds with each other making legitimate (re. sane) arguments that Neely is completely ignoring/not buying. When Mojo and Kyle are on the same side of the argument, there is something seriously amiss in the Force.

[Rob]

I think I'm not so much baffled by Neely spouting off a marathon of insanity as the fact that a who's who of NSBB's smartest posters are lining up to reason with him in their own respective ways.

 

I almost dragged myself out of bed last night to write up a huge post before I thought better of it. I may do it when I get off work anyways though.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think I'm not so much baffled by Neely spouting off a marathon of insanity as the fact that a who's who of NSBB's smartest posters are lining up to reason with him in their own respective ways.

 

What's even more impressive is the number of people that are normally at odds with each other making legitimate (re. sane) arguments that Neely is completely ignoring/not buying. When Mojo and Kyle are on the same side of the argument, there is something seriously amiss in the Force.

 

Could it be the Neely is simply a ghost accound created by Tim to concentrate everyone's agression and create peace among the posters of NSBB? Next thing you know Nuts&Gum and davearm2 will be singing Kumbaya.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

You must be ecstatic with his reemergence.

[neely crenshaw]

the only good stat is OPS for May . As I attempted to point out his Ops is brought by 3 hrs and 3 2b. he has 5 rbi.

so prorate that over a season, he would have a stat line of .246 24 hrs 24 2b 40 rbi. where would that rank him? you compare 20 days to everyone's whole season and he is at the average. at the average is not good, it's average. of 30 3b, it puts him at 15?

so that's good? his hot month is average

 

beyond that attempt to discredit me, what do you have?

 

here's my stat#1 I knew I could find it:

2011 Adam Dunn Apr 24 to May 14. 22 games(compared to 21 for stewart) 78 plate appearances, 65 at bats 17 hits 7 2b 2 hr 13 bb that is a .261 .384 .461 .845 line yet despite that he had been one of the most consistent hitters in mlb, he finished .159 .292 .277 .569, yet you are so sure that this little blip is proof that stewart is coming on. there is absolutely no comparison in the history that backs Dunn compared to stewart.

stat #2- you want to talk babip?

career he only 17% of his bip are line drives.

83% are flyballs and groundballs. he has a .217 babip, he has .180 on ground balls, while on his 17% line drives he hits .754. This tells me that he isn't unlucky, he is hitting lazy flyballs and easy groundballs more often than loud outs.

 

 

stat #3 don't believe me that his May stats could be artificial?

last 7 days .133 .316 .133 .449

last 14 days .189 .318 .324

so do you think his 5 game run in which he got 9 of his 14 hits, his 3 2bs and 2 of his hrs. and hit .363 is bumping up his May or is the rest of the month where he went 5/38 hitting .131 with 1 hr more accurate?

So as proof of his turning it around do we look at this month but not the last 2 weeks?

 

and did we get that long list of hitters who improved after leaving colorado yet?

 

I know you intelligent posters can't take it but there is an really strong chance that stewart will not hit his career averages this year.

You also can stand that using a stat like OPS over 20 games to make a point about improving is not valid.

Certainly even you can see that a stat where 5 games of .363 .518 .818 1.336 so greatly outweighs 15 games of .131 .266 .210 .476 that you can't consider it relevant.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think I'm not so much baffled by Neely spouting off a marathon of insanity as the fact that a who's who of NSBB's smartest posters are lining up to reason with him in their own respective ways.

 

What's even more impressive is the number of people that are normally at odds with each other making legitimate (re. sane) arguments that Neely is completely ignoring/not buying. When Mojo and Kyle are on the same side of the argument, there is something seriously amiss in the Force.

 

We agree on almost everything.

[bcl412]

There's an awful lot of of effort going into trying to discredit a guy who is gritty and plays hard and I don't think it's right.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

There's an awful lot of of effort going into trying to discredit a guy who is gritty and plays hard and I don't think it's right.

 

He might have the hardest nose on the team.

[SouthSideRyan]

here's my stat#1 I knew I could find it:

2011 Adam Dunn Apr 24 to May 14. 22 games(compared to 21 for stewart) 78 plate appearances, 65 at bats 17 hits 7 2b 2 hr 13 bb that is a .261 .384 .461 .845 line yet despite that he had been one of the most consistent hitters in mlb, he finished .159 .292 .277 .569, yet you are so sure that this little blip is proof that stewart is coming on. there is absolutely no comparison in the history that backs Dunn compared to stewart.

 

What in the holy [expletive] are you talking about?

 

stat #2- you want to talk babip?

career he only 17% of his bip are line drives.

83% are flyballs and groundballs. he has a .217 babip, he has .180 on ground balls, while on his 17% line drives he hits .754. This tells me that he isn't unlucky, he is hitting lazy flyballs and easy groundballs more often than loud outs.

 

If only there were measurements saying how often he was hitting flyballs and groundballs compared to line drives this season.

 

 

stat #3 don't believe me that his May stats could be artificial?

last 7 days .133 .316 .133 .449

last 14 days .189 .318 .324

so do you think his 5 game run in which he got 9 of his 14 hits, his 3 2bs and 2 of his hrs. and hit .363 is bumping up his May or is the rest of the month where he went 5/38 hitting .131 with 1 hr more accurate?

So as proof of his turning it around do we look at this month but not the last 2 weeks?

 

and did we get that long list of hitters who improved after leaving colorado yet?

 

I know you intelligent posters can't take it but there is an really strong chance that stewart will not hit his career averages this year.

You also can stand that using a stat like OPS over 20 games to make a point about improving is not valid.

Certainly even you can see that a stat where 5 games of .363 .518 .818 1.336 so greatly outweighs 15 games of .131 .266 .210 .476 that you can't consider it relevant.

 

What I've learned today is that only guys who go 1 for 4 every game of the year are valuable.

 

Also that intelligent is an insult now.

[neely crenshaw]

just want to reiterate for clarity sake.

you believe:

I am a toddler

I have no baseball knowledge

I am a troll

I am insane

There is no reason to nay of my arguments

I am saying:

I don't think stewart will reach his career averages

I don't think he is particularly good even at those averages

I don't think there are many if any stats that support that he will hit those

I don't think hitters coming from Colorado improve their offensive stats very often

I don't think that a 20 game split of OPS means much of anything, and especially compared to much longer sample size like his career, his season, his last 3 seasons.

I don't dislike stewart, I don't anyone should replace him, I just don't expect much from him.

I think people who are so sure that stewart will be better than he has ever been based on some magic potion because he is a cub or very silly.

I think it is even sillier that they grab what split they can to try to "prove" their opinion

you guys think:

that stats are normalized in 30 at bats

that stewart will hit his career average or better for certain

you feel that 5 games of hitting in May means more than the other 36 games of this season, or all of last year, or his entire career in colorado

you feel he will be better outside of coors field

You feel that this "hot" month which fits into "average" 3b stats makes him good

You disregard his stats for the awful past week, and his bad past 2 weeks to focus on his hot month because that would ruin your argument

as I said long, long ago we while find out. We can argue about what might happen as long as you want. We can guess based on any data we want, but after it plays out you really can't argue.

[CubColtPacer]

just want to reiterate for clarity sake.

you believe:

I am a toddler

I have no baseball knowledge

I am a troll

I am insane

There is no reason to nay of my arguments

I am saying:

I don't think stewart will reach his career averages

I don't think he is particularly good even at those averages

I don't think there are many if any stats that support that he will hit those

I don't think hitters coming from Colorado improve their offensive stats very often

I don't think that a 20 game split of OPS means much of anything, and especially compared to much longer sample size like his career, his season, his last 3 seasons.

I don't dislike stewart, I don't anyone should replace him, I just don't expect much from him.

I think people who are so sure that stewart will be better than he has ever been based on some magic potion because he is a cub or very silly.

I think it is even sillier that they grab what split they can to try to "prove" their opinion

you guys think:

that stats are normalized in 30 at bats

that stewart will hit his career average or better for certain

you feel that 5 games of hitting in May means more than the other 36 games of this season, or all of last year, or his entire career in colorado

you feel he will be better outside of coors field

You feel that this "hot" month which fits into "average" 3b stats makes him good

You disregard his stats for the awful past week, and his bad past 2 weeks to focus on his hot month because that would ruin your argument

as I said long, long ago we while find out. We can argue about what might happen as long as you want. We can guess based on any data we want, but after it plays out you really can't argue.

 

First off, I apologize for any names that you were called. That is unacceptable behavior.

 

Second, I think you have misread some of the arguments being made. I would love to see what you think of my post on page 3. I think it addresses just about every concern that you have laid out in this post.

[bcl412]

I don't really think anyone has said that Stewart is this great player or that he is any kind of permanent fixture for this club at the moment. They said there is evidence that indicates that he could be a valuable asset to this team and than got frustrated with a very awful understanding of statistics (RBI's are being used to support an argument for God's sake).

 

And the thread is about Stewart having bad luck and even without stats backing up the fact that he has had some bad luck, the eye test has told me the guy is hitting the ball hard a lot for outs.

[Derwood]

http://i401.photobucket.com/albums/pp96/clars74/lol-cats_i-love-this-thread-so-much.jpg

[neely crenshaw]

south side are you ELL?

 

those are his babip stats for his entire career.

there is a reason why ground balls and flyballs are caught more often

there is a reason that good hitters hit more line drives

bad luck is hard to alibi on for 6 years

 

Dunn's split from last year is better than Stewarts. it meant nothing to the end product, it was a blip in the sample not a sign that things were coming around. ANY TIME you use a small sample you can find stats that show improvement. Major league hitters, even bad ones will hit occasionally. Dunn's stats are to point out that showing Stewart's hot start to May means nothing if it isn't followed up or continued.

 

the splits are from stewarts last week, and last 2 weeks again to illustrate why ops in small samples is not good. It is not to show that good hitters go 1 for 4 every game, it says that hitting for 5 games can greatly skew a small sample size like 20 games.

 

So do we look at his entire month because that looks good, his last 2 weeks which doesn't look good, to decide if he is rounding in to shape. I am not trying to say I am right because of those stats, I am simply attempting to point out to you guys that looking at stats from 20 games doesn't mean jack. It's a horrible way to prove someone's ability or to judge their end game. Anyone can have a great split. My problem is that with stewart's split, it starts back down again...which I'll admit does not mean anything necessarily either because hitters go through peaks and valleys.

My opinion is that based on his past, based on his first 41 games, based on his last 2 weeks it's more likely he is returning to his mean than rising to the top of his range.

 

so far your best argument is that Dewitt doesn't have an "e"

[jersey cubs fan]

just want to reiterate for clarity sake.

you believe:

 

I believe you are horrible at reading comprehension, formulating your owns ideas and expressing those ideas in the written (or typed) form.

[El Duderino]

south side are you ELL?

[SouthSideRyan]

south side are you ELL?

 

What?

 

those are his babip stats for his entire career.

there is a reason why ground balls and flyballs are caught more often

there is a reason that good hitters hit more line drives

bad luck is hard to alibi on for 6 years

 

Yes, this certainly addresses his LD% for 2012.

[CubColtPacer]

south side are you ELL?

 

those are his babip stats for his entire career.

there is a reason why ground balls and flyballs are caught more often

there is a reason that good hitters hit more line drives

bad luck is hard to alibi on for 6 years

 

Yes, ground balls and fly balls get caught more often than line drives do. The rule of thumb is to add .12 to the line drive percentage to get BABIP. If you hit mostly ground balls instead of fly balls, you probably add a little more (more ground balls go for hits than fly balls) while with fly balls you should add a little less.

 

In Stewart's case, he's a career 18.8% LD percentage with a .289 career BABIP. So a little less than .12 but that's understandable since he's been a heavy fly ball hitter in his career.

 

This year, he's at 17.9% LD percentage and a .221 BABIP. That isn't anywhere close to either the rule of thumb or his career. And he's hitting a lot more ground balls this year, so his BABIP should actually be higher than his career difference would indicate. His BABIP based off of a normal hitter and his career should be 60-90 points better than it is. And that's a significant difference.

[SouthSideRyan]

just want to reiterate for clarity sake.

you believe:

 

I believe you are horrible at reading comprehension, formulating your owns ideas and expressing those ideas in the written (or typed) form.

 

I got money on spoken too

[neely crenshaw]

So what don't I comprehend?

 

Your idiot babbling that stewart hits in bad luck? that his babip average is low so despite it being right where it has been, his luck will change now.

Or that his 5 game ops means he good now but his last 2 weeks don't count.

 

How about you guys know he is a .233 hitter, for 6 seasons in colorado, but say that he will hit better away from colorado, he will hit better than his career averages, and I am dumb because I doubt this.

 

cut to the chase:

Is Stewart good?

I say no

Has he been good historically?

I say no

For whatever your reasons, will he hit his career averages this year?

I say no

He really has hit in bad luck all year, and all career and that will even out this year?

(ok,hard to prove)

I say absolutely ludicris to think bad luck stretches out an entire season, let alone several

 

and one final one just for me, Can a players ops be greatly skewed in a small sample size.

I say there is no doubt that in small samples size ops is a terrible indicator of performance because 1 game,1 week,heck 1 hit can change things from 40-500 points

 

You all scoffed, you put me down, so answer. We will see when the season plays out. Super-intelligent poster guys put it in writing.

Insulting people doesn't help you win an argument. I'm dumb, I'm a toddler, I have no comprehension skill, I don't know baseball, etc.

So please tell me where my thinking is wrong

[neely crenshaw]

south side are you ELL?

 

What?

 

those are his babip stats for his entire career.

there is a reason why ground balls and flyballs are caught more often

there is a reason that good hitters hit more line drives

bad luck is hard to alibi on for 6 years

 

Yes, this certainly addresses his LD% for 2012.

 

and I have comprehension problems?

Typing slow again for you.

If his career stats are similar to his current stats, it becomes a trend. Not a certainty, but a trend.

If his LD% was greatly different you would probably guess it would revert back to his norm.

I'll try to make it elementary for you.

if he hits 17% line drives for 1000 at bats, and then he hits around 17% line drives for his first 150 at bats, It's not a certainty but it's kind of likely that in his next 150 at bats he hits about 17%, and for the 150 after that, and so on.

Now don't make that mistake and decide that if he hits 50% line drives for 10 at bats that it's a new trend.

Chances are he will return to his norms over a large sample. That is kind of how means and medians are used as predictors. They aren't "for sure" but they are a good place to start, especially with a large scale.

do you understand?

[CubColtPacer]

So what don't I comprehend?

 

Your idiot babbling that stewart hits in bad luck? that his babip average is low so despite it being right where it has been, his luck will change now.

Or that his 5 game ops means he good now but his last 2 weeks don't count.

 

How about you guys know he is a .233 hitter, for 6 seasons in colorado, but say that he will hit better away from colorado, he will hit better than his career averages, and I am dumb because I doubt this.

 

cut to the chase:

Is Stewart good?

I say no

Has he been good historically?

I say no

For whatever your reasons, will he hit his career averages this year?

I say no

He really has hit in bad luck all year, and all career and that will even out this year?

(ok,hard to prove)

I say absolutely ludicris to think bad luck stretches out an entire season, let alone several

 

and one final one just for me, Can a players ops be greatly skewed in a small sample size.

I say there is no doubt that in small samples size ops is a terrible indicator of performance because 1 game,1 week,heck 1 hit can change things from 40-500 points

 

You all scoffed, you put me down, so answer. We will see when the season plays out. Super-intelligent poster guys put it in writing.

Insulting people doesn't help you win an argument. I'm dumb, I'm a toddler, I have no comprehension skill, I don't know baseball, etc.

So please tell me where my thinking is wrong

 

As I said in my last post, I apologize for the names that you have been called, but that doesn't excuse you calling other people names. Please stop.

 

And again, I ask you to go back to my post on page 3 and address it (or even my post on BABIP on page 4). I'm willing to address your points but you continue to ignore mine.

 

BTW, I don't think anybody is saying that Stewart has hit into bad luck his whole career. What is different from his time in Colorado is his strikeout rate. It's significantly less this year. And his line drive rate is close to the same, so his average should have shot up. It hasn't, and that's because of a really low BABIP that major league history has shown is unsustainable over a large sample size. He has been unlucky so far in 2012, and that should start to even out over the course of the season.

[Tracer Bullet]

If you're going to take this tone, you forfeit the right to complain when someone calls your posts idiotic and childish.