Stewart's Crappy Luck

[David]

Came across this as I was Googling Stewart's stats...

 

Chicago Cubs 3B Ian Stewart has had quite the rough start to the season. Stewart, formerly of the Colorado Rockies, is currently hitting .196/.267/.315 for an OPS of .565. Among third basemen, Stewart is second to last in AVG and fourth to last in both OBP and SLG%. Those numbers aren’t pretty in the least. This guy is horrible, right? Shouldn’t the Cubs quickly cut their ties with Stewart and look elsewhere?

 

Not so fast.

 

Stewart is obviously not producing what the Cubs had hoped to this point. But as backwards as this may sound, we shouldn’t always look at a player’s results so early on in the season. Instead, using some advanced statistics is often a better view of how a player is actually hitting. To help show how much luck plays into hitting, especially early in the season, here is the walk rate, strikeout rate, and line drive percentage for three different third baseman.

 

Player X: 8.9 % BB Rate, 21.8% K Rate, 22.4% LD Rate

 

Player Y: 7.1% BB Rate, 23.5% K Rate, 21.2% LD Rate

 

Player Z: 5.2% BB Rate, 18.8% K Rate, 15.5% LD Rate

 

These are the three players in no particular order: David Freese – .322/.378/.567, Ian Stewart – .196/.267/.315, Mike Moustakas – .311/.361/.544.

 

Without looking it up, can you guess which player matches with which rate stats? If so, well done. Here are the matches along with the main contributing factor in the three players difference in average:

 

Ian Stewart: 8.9 % BB Rate, 21.8% K Rate, 22.4% LD Rate, .235 BABIP

 

David Freese: 7.1% BB Rate, 23.5% K Rate, 21.2% LD Rate, .377 BABIP

 

Mike Moustakas: 5.2% BB Rate, 18.8% K Rate, 15.5% LD Rate, .353 BABIP

 

 

http://www.rantsports.com/chicago-cubs/2012/05/05/ian-stewart-really-bad-really-unlucky/

 

 

David [expletive] Freese

[BeerHere]

David [expletive] Freese

 

That was my first though as well. It makes me feel a little better than Stewart should see some improvement based on BABIP. Likewise, Freese should regress but of course there are no guarantees.

[Little Slide Rooter]

David [expletive] Freese

 

That was my first though as well. It makes me feel a little better than Stewart should see some improvement based on BABIP. Likewise, Freese should regress but of course there are no guarantees.

 

Cardinals have a lot of guys who share the middle name [expletive]. No Pujols or Carpenter, Wainwright hasn't been very good and Holliday hasn't got going yet, but who cares when you have David [expletive] Freese, Jon [expletive] Jay, Kyle [expletive] Lohse, Jake [expletive] Westbrook, Carlos [expletive] Beltran, Lance [expletive] Lynn, Yadier [expletive] Molina, and Rafael [expletive] Furcal.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

How did Carlos Beltranget lumped in with those fucks? It's a shock that he's playing well?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I think Stewart will finish up alright here this year and eventually be a valuable role player ala Eric Hinske.

 

I wish I knew the league average numbers so I like make a projection...Oh well.

[Little Slide Rooter]

How did Carlos Beltranget lumped in with those [expletive]? It's a shock that he's playing well?

 

Not a shock that he's playing well. More so that he remains healthy and the Cards got him for a steal.

[Guest]

Stewart and the team (not surprisingly) are well aware of his crappy luck

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-news/Ian-Stewart-feels-like-things-are-about-?blockID=707888&feedID=9399

[TruffleShuffle]

Stewart and the team (not surprisingly) are well aware of his crappy luck

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-news/Ian-Stewart-feels-like-things-are-about-?blockID=707888&feedID=9399

 

one of the more encouraging things about epstein (and i assume hoyer) is that they understand luck and are willing to be patient on young guys who run into a rough patch of luck. i remember dustin pedroia coming up for the red sox having a terrible slash line for the first month or so in 2007, after not hitting for beans in his late 2006 audition. at that point it would have been easy for them to send him down - after all, they were a win-now team (they won the world series in 2007) and pedroia's first 200 plate appearances had been pretty damn bad. but he wasn't striking out much and had a good minor league pedigree, so they stuck with him and he ended up winning the rookie of the year. i feel like too many past cub front offices would've given up early and pegged that type of player as AAAA way too quickly.

[Guest]

Good to see his BABIP is actually higher than his LD% now.

 

He's got a .268/.348/.561 line so far in May and he's up to a .647 OPS for the year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Some peripherals:

 

Career K%: 27.3%

2012 K%: 20.6%

 

I'm very encouraged that they may really have been able to tweak something in his swing.

[neely crenshaw]

luck has a way to sort itself out in 150 at bats. He may have a LD% but he also hits a lot of very soft line drives that will never be hits. He has hit some shots but it's very doubtful he goes above .220 for the season. Everyone despises Soriano, yet all of his stats are better, much better usually than stewart's. We can hope but really IF he hits the rest of the season like his warm up may, do we really want a 3B that hits .267 with a sub .700 OPS and 140 k's. He's only a stop gap, and at his best, he's maybe mediocre. The only 3B worse is Morrell.

Not that fantasy is the best judge but he is the 759th ranked statistical 3b. Of course does not include D. what 3b would you not trade him for if it's was just for this season and money didn't matter? morrell...and?

 

he won't be here long, we might as well start seeing who might be available in the next 2-3 years because not sure anyone is close and that discussion would be more beneficial than praying stewart gets some luck.

[Guest]

No, luck does not sort itself out after 150 plate appearances. And no, Stewart was not hitting a bunch of "soft" line drives. He was hitting rockets all over the place, and his luck has only started to turn with his .246/.338/.456/.795 May line.

[MSG T]

No, luck does not sort itself out after 150 plate appearances. And no, Stewart was not hitting a bunch of "soft" line drives. He was hitting rockets all over the place, and his luck has only started to turn with his .246/.338/.456/.795 May line.

 

 

And his BABIP the last month is still only .217. What happens when it gets closer to his career norm, .290?

[neely crenshaw]

you see what you want to see. Time will tell, it will be difficult to blame bad luck after 500 at bats. Regardless at his very,very best he is mediocre.

On this team he's fine. I like his toughness, I like his grit. There is no denying he cares, he plays hard and seems like a good team mate. There is a lot to like about him but don't confuse that with being good. He can not be the 3rd baseman on your team if you plan on being a serious contender.

[javy knows my name]

you see what you want to see. Time will tell, it will be difficult to blame bad luck after 500 at bats. Regardless at his very,very best he is mediocre.

On this team he's fine. I like his toughness, I like his grit. There is no denying he cares, he plays hard and seems like a good team mate. There is a lot to like about him but don't confuse that with being good. He can not be the 3rd baseman on your team if you plan on being a serious contender.

 

Just when I think we've rid the board of people who make posts like these...

 

You've yet to use a meaningful statistic in any convincing way and you're telling people that they are seeing what they want to see? They're looking at peripherals and predictive stats that don't even start to normalize until after about the first half of the year and you're citing batting average and RsBI and many other things that don't matter. You're the only one making declarative statements about Ian Stewart and there is a very good chance that you will be woefully wrong by the end of the year.

[Sammy Sofa]

you see what you want to see. Time will tell, it will be difficult to blame bad luck after 500 at bats. Regardless at his very,very best he is mediocre.

 

Time IS telling, and we can see reality. As pointed out, these are his numbers in May:

 

.246 .338 .456 .795

 

Surely this will make you reconsider and...

 

On this team he's fine. I like his toughness, I like his grit. There is no denying he cares, he plays hard and seems like a good team mate. There is a lot to like about him but don't confuse that with being good. He can not be the 3rd baseman on your team if you plan on being a serious contender.

 

.......ohhhhhh. You're one of those.

[bcl412]

By "grit" I'm assuming it is meant that he has a beard and eye black, which I admit, does look pretty cool.

[neely crenshaw]

so in your minds with his awesome May of .246 .338 .456 .795 he is a good third baseman?

 

you want stats?

his best year ever= 18hrs .256 .338 .443 .781 in COLORADO.

 

other years? .228 .322 .464 .785 or .156 .243 .221 .464 i'm sure that was just bad luck. When a guy has a 6 season batting average of .233, he's not unlucky, he's a .233 hitter. and that's with home games at colorado.

 

another stat= coors was the top offensive park in 2009 and 2010, 2nd in 2011, 3rd in 2007 and 2008.

 

another in his hot May..we are about to be 7-11.

His huge bump in OPS is due to....3 2bs and 3 hrs in 18 games. he had extra base hits in 5 games. he had 3 rbi with those extra basehits, all solo hr's. he has 5 total rbi over the "hot" May

in his games with extra base hits, the cubs won by a total of 22-6. his 3 rbi helped how much?

the best part of his stats for May is his OPS but OPS is the worst stat to look at over a short time. If he hits 1 less homerun, his OPS(and slugging for that matter) drops 75-80 points. because of 1 hit over almost a month. It's just not a good stat unless you are looking at a large sample size.

[treebird]

so in your minds with his awesome May of .246 .338 .456 .795 he is a good third baseman?

 

you want stats?

his best year ever= 18hrs .256 .338 .443 .781 in COLORADO.

 

other years? .228 .322 .464 .785 or .156 .243 .221 .464 i'm sure that was just bad luck. When a guy has a 6 season batting average of .233, he's not unlucky, he's a .233 hitter. and that's with home games at colorado.

 

another stat= coors was the top offensive park in 2009 and 2010, 2nd in 2011, 3rd in 2007 and 2008.

 

another in his hot May..we are about to be 7-11.

His huge bump in OPS is due to....3 2bs and 3 hrs in 18 games. he had extra base hits in 5 games. he had 3 rbi with those extra basehits, all solo hr's. he has 5 total rbi over the "hot" May

in his games with extra base hits, the cubs won by a total of 22-6. his 3 rbi helped how much?

the best part of his stats for May is his OPS but OPS is the worst stat to look at over a short time. If he hits 1 less homerun, his OPS(and slugging for that matter) drops 75-80 points. because of 1 hit over almost a month. It's just not a good stat unless you are looking at a large sample size.

 

b&

[Little Slide Rooter]

Say what you will about the posters of Northsidebaseball.com, but we never allow our trolls to go hungry.

[Sammy Sofa]

so in your minds with his awesome May of .246 .338 .456 .795 he is a good third baseman?

 

It means he's useful/serviceable and hopefully on the path to becoming better, which is why he was signed in the first place.

 

you want stats?

his best year ever= 18hrs .256 .338 .443 .781 in COLORADO.

 

other years? .228 .322 .464 .785 or .156 .243 .221 .464 i'm sure that was just bad luck. When a guy has a 6 season batting average of .233, he's not unlucky, he's a .233 hitter. and that's with home games at colorado.

 

Nobody is arguing here that he didn't suck; the point of signing him is that he's a buy low cost/risk player who still has a shot of being productive. The Cubs wanted him for this and because they don't have anyone on the verge of taking over at 3B. Again, this is like your stupid argument against DeJesus; what is your problem with Stewart being in the lineup? Who is he blocking? Who should be playing instead of him?

 

another in his hot May..we are about to be 7-11.

His huge bump in OPS is due to....3 2bs and 3 hrs in 18 games. he had extra base hits in 5 games. he had 3 rbi with those extra basehits, all solo hr's. he has 5 total rbi over the "hot" May

in his games with extra base hits, the cubs won by a total of 22-6. his 3 rbi helped how much?

the best part of his stats for May is his OPS but OPS is the worst stat to look at over a short time. If he hits 1 less homerun, his OPS(and slugging for that matter) drops 75-80 points. because of 1 hit over almost a month. It's just not a good stat unless you are looking at a large sample size.

 

I give up. This is absurd.

[neely crenshaw]

just horrible luck for stewart tonight. 3 balls in play, and some how none of them found a hole. the astros showed a lot of heart getting in front of those balls, I mean they have wives and kids at home...

[Sammy Sofa]

Tim, seriously, is it some kind of hits tracker or something? Just end this.

[neely crenshaw]

brandon Inge's stats for May .239 .308 .565 .873

I guess he is good again too.

 

not too mention he has 7 extra basehits, 4 hrs and 17 rbi compared to stewart's

6, 3 and 5. heck, if stewart can keep this up all season he's on pace for 45 rbi

 

you guys are awesome with your clips for 20 at bats showing how good everyone will be!

[Sammy Sofa]

Stewart's May numbers are based off of 65 PA.

 

But hey, 20, 65, it's the same thing, right?

 

Also: he still seemingly can't figure out the difference between an AB and a PA.

 

Also also: RBI!!! It's apparently Stewart's fault that he can't magically put runners on base ahead of him.