Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-6-12

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores

 

Iowa lost 12-4 Box Score

 

CF B. Jackson 2/3, 2 R, HR (3), RBI, BB, K

RF D. Sappelt 1/4, K

3B A. Cardenas 0/2, RBI, BB

1B A. Rizzo 0/2, 2 BB, K

SS L. Valbuena 2/4, R, K

PH J. Vitters 0/1, K

SP J. Jackson 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 5-2 GO-FO, 95-56 pitches-strikes

RP J. Beliveau 1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1-0 GO-FO

RP F. Batista 1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 2-0 GO-FO

 

Tennessee lost 4-2 Box Score

 

SS J. Lake 2/4, 2B (1), 3B (1), K, E (1, missed catch) - season debut

2B E. Soto 2/3, RBI, 2 BB, CS (2)

CF JH Ha 0/4, BB, 2 K

1B J. Bour 1/5

DH M. Cerda 0/2, 2 BB, K

SP B. Raley 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 6-6 GO-FO, 82-44 pitches-strikes

RP C. Weathers 1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 WP, 1-0 GO-FO

 

Daytona walks off in the 9th, 5-4 Box Score

 

DH M. Szczur 1/4, R, BB, SB (16)

SS A. Alcantara 2/5, R, 2 3B (4), 2 RBI, SB (6) - walk-off triple

CF J. Andreoli 0/2, R, 2 BB, K

3B G. Rohan 1/4, R, 2B (8), RBI

LF N. Perez 1/4, RBI, 3 K, OF assist at 3rd base

PH R. Silva 1/1, CS (6)

SP A. Kirk 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 8-6 GO-FO

RP T. Zych 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 0-1 GO-FO

 

Peoria lost 9-2 Box Score

 

2B Z. DeVoss 1/4, R, BB, K, SB (6)

SS W. Darvill 2/5, RBI, K, E (9, throw)

DH R. Lopez 2/5

1B P. Hoilman 1/4, RBI, K, E (4, fielding) - 19-game hitting streak

RF O. Zapata 0/3, BB, 2 K

CF PC Chen 0/4

SP M. Jensen 4.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, HR, WP, 7-3 GO-FO

RP A. Reed 1.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, HBP, WP, 2-0 GO-FO

 

OVERALL: 1-3

[Guest]

Probable Starters

 

Iowa: RHP Jay Jackson (2-2, 6.04 ERA, 25.1 IP, 17 K, 11 BB)

Tennessee: LHP Brooks Raley (1-1, 3.82 ERA, 30.2 IP, 18 K, 8 BB)

Daytona: LHP Austin Kirk (1-0, 1.69 ERA, 37.1 IP, 19 K, 9 BB)

Peoria: RHP Michael Jensen (3-1, 2.79 ERA, 29 IP, 22 K, 8 BB)

[rawaction]

Leadoff HR from Brett Jackson. Could be 3 straight games with a leadoff HR. Hit the wall in his opening ABs in his previous 2 starts (sat a game). Vitters not in the lineup again today.

 

Jackson hit the 1st pitch out. Then Sappelt and Cardenas combined to see 17 pitches in their 2 ABs, before Rizzo grounded into a 1st pitch double play (Cardenas walked).

[El Duderino]

Jay Jackson is brutal.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Jay Jackson is brutal.

 

They really should revisit converting him to the bullpen before sticking a fork on him or dubbing him as organizational.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Jay Jackson is brutal.

 

They really should revisit converting him to the bullpen before sticking a fork on him or dubbing him as organizational.

 

Once again, I think you missed that he's been organizational for a couple of years now. Guy hasn't been good or even talented in a long time.

[toonsterwu]

Well, Jay Jackson was still a fascinating prospect at the start of 2010, his 2nd full year of pro ball. He had an interesting 2009 - was capable in AA, but had control problems, then was demoted to A+ and dominated there, before ending with a start at AAA. Actually, if I recall the 2009 time in AA correctly, he got off to a horrendous start, then was on a roll in AA, before a couple bad starts and the demotion occurred. All in all, he was still headed the right direction after 2009, where the reports on his fastball were good, there was belief that his slider showed promise. Of course, there were some concerns - he had a decent GB rate in 2009 (40% at AA, 48% at A+), but he was still flyball prone, the slider wasn't that great, and there were command concerns, which, IIRC, was partly attributed to his mechanical concerns. But for a raw college arm to do this well in his first full season of pro ball was very promising.

 

Then came 2010. He went up to AAA. The reports on his slider just weren't all that good, but he showed significant improvement in his command, and mechanically, IIRC, there were indications that he was smoothing out the concerns that some had. Still HR prone, but well, he's flyball prone ... but there was some hope that if he could find a sharp slider, he could actually be a solid starting prospect. What was mildly interesting to me about his 2010, IIRC, he was able to get guys to pound groundballs at a respectable rate for a couple months, but the other months, he was horrendously flyball heavy.

 

Then came 2011 (and even this year). He's getting more groundballs than he did in 2010, and his HR rate is down from 2010. I know there were reports on his velocity being a concern, but I saw him hit the low 90's last year, which is where he's largely been as a starter (he did ramp up the velo a bit in short spurts in AA, but that was when he was still chucking the ball a bit more). There still isn't a strikeout pitch, though.

 

All this is to say that, even though I don't consider him a top 30 prospect in the Cubs system, I'm not ready to slap organizational on him just yet. May come down to how one defines organizational, though. I tend to think of JR Mathes types, guys who really had zero reason to see the major leagues and are average minor leaguers kept around to provide veteran leadership, or something like that. There's still some life in the fastball. I tend to wonder if a move to the pen is the best move to make for him, with the hope being that maybe he could focus on the slider and tighten it up. That said, it's also not hard to see why they keep him as a starter - this is the start of his fourth full season of pro ball, and he was probably a bit rushed up the ladder. The command has sharpened, the mechanics have improved. If he found an out-pitch, his arsenal could play around that and be ... interesting. He's only 24, and pitching-wise, he's probably a young 24 in that he was a 2-way guy in college. Big IF, though.

 

This seems like a big defense of Jay Jackson, but again, I don't really consider him a top 30 in the Cubs system. Just think it's a bit hasty to say that he's organizational. I think the pen's the best bet, though.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

He was overrated to start with being a standout starter prospect in a dry system, and by 2010 his stuff AND mechanics was falling off a cliff.

 

Similar to how Chris Archer being rated high within the system was treated as a big deal despite his extremely obvious flaws. Yes, relative to the rest of the system he stood out and was worth talking about, but grand scheme he was a slightly bigger fish in a small pond. Jackson was never a very athletic guy, he was a short RH, his fastball was never standout...Not much room for error in prospectdom.

 

Possibly he emerges as a pen arm one day and that's fine, but not someone I'd hold my breath on.

[davell]

I agree with everything, other than calling Jay unathletic. He's the best hitting pitcher in the system, supposedly by a large margin and played an excellent CF in college at Furman.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I agree with everything, other than calling Jay unathletic. He's the best hitting pitcher in the system, supposedly by a large margin and played an excellent CF in college at Furman.

 

Oh wow here's me learning something. Totally wrong on that then...Maybe there's slight hope for him out there. I can root for that.

[toonsterwu]

He was overrated to start with being a standout starter prospect in a dry system, and by 2010 his stuff AND mechanics was falling off a cliff.

 

Similar to how Chris Archer being rated high within the system was treated as a big deal despite his extremely obvious flaws. Yes, relative to the rest of the system he stood out and was worth talking about, but grand scheme he was a slightly bigger fish in a small pond. Jackson was never a very athletic guy, he was a short RH, his fastball was never standout...Not much room for error in prospectdom.

 

Possibly he emerges as a pen arm one day and that's fine, but not someone I'd hold my breath on.

 

Hmm ... his mechanics were falling off a cliff in 2010? I followed him closely in 2010, saw him a few times, talked to a few people about him, and the general opinion was that, mechanically, he was significantly improved. The general belief was that the command improvements he showed in AAA were partly attributed to significant improvements mechanically, where he become more of a pitcher, whereas one person who saw him a lot in 2009 called him a "chucker".

 

Stuff wise, his stuff never "fell". It just never developed. Fastball's the same as it was coming up the system. Slider's the same as well, which is the problem. In 2009, you could say that it was his first full year of pro ball, first full year as a full-time pitcher, and look at his slider and say, it shows some potential, flashes some potential, but in 2010, it never developed, and hence why you got a lot of 50/55 on the slider. Basically, in 2009, folks were more willing to overlook the flaws because he was so raw as a pitcher (again, in 2009, it was his first full year as a pitcher), and hope that the 50/55 they saw could blossom a bit, but it just didn't.

 

All that said, I feel like I'm defending Jay Jackson a lot more than I really intend to (heck, for the past year, people have bagged on Alberto Cabrera, and I kept arguing that Cabrera was more intriguing than Jay Jackson). I just don't know about mechanics falling off. Maybe they fell off in 2011 and/or this year, but I am certain in 2010 there were a lot more people positive about his mechanics than in 2009.

 

Edit: On the degradation issue, I'm aware that some reports said he had a plus slider in college and in 2008/2009. It may be benefit of hindsight, but when I asked around in 2010, there were some folks that said that in 2009, it was never consistently "plus" to get a 60 grade, but that people hoped that the average pitch they flashed plus occasionally could get there. But yes, from the perspective that some reports said it was a plus pitch once, I guess I can see why you might argue there was degradation, but I question if that degradation occurred or it simply never developed.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Aside from Brett Jackson, Iowa was an overall suck fest. 0fers from Cardenas and Rizzo, though Cardenas had 1 BB and Rizzo 2 and Beliveau and Batista each got tagged for 3 ER apiece.

[toonsterwu]

Tennessee lost, but Lake, leading off, was 2/4 with a double and a triple in his return. That said, he also had a K. Mildly interesting decision to have him lead off. Curious behind the thought process on that one - could be simply to get him back in the groove, but half wonder if it's to try and force him to take some pitches. Lake took 4 pitches in the first AB, 1 in the 2nd AB, put a sac bunt on for the 3rd AB, struck out in 3 pitches on his 4th AB, and hit a triple on the first pitch in the 9th.

 

Daytona won 5-4. Kirk had his usual solid outing (7ip, 6 h (1 solo HR), 3 K's, 2 R's). Alcantara is red hot ... 2/5, 2 3B's, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB (last 10: .371/.389/.543). Feels like just a hot streak, but maybe there's some development. He's still a 20 year old toolsy, intriguing guy that can handle short, but his lack of discipline was always the worrisome issue.

[tmicmiller]

When does Kirk get a bump to double A? I hope he doesn't fall off the cliff like last year. Any ideas on ceiling for Kirk?

[davell]

Kirk is a back end of the rotation upside type. He needs to pitch effectively without tiring towards the end of the season. I doubt we'd bump him up until after midseason personally.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Tennessee lost, but Lake, leading off, was 2/4 with a double and a triple in his return. That said, he also had a K. Mildly interesting decision to have him lead off. Curious behind the thought process on that one - could be simply to get him back in the groove, but half wonder if it's to try and force him to take some pitches. Lake took 4 pitches in the first AB, 1 in the 2nd AB, put a sac bunt on for the 3rd AB, struck out in 3 pitches on his 4th AB, and hit a triple on the first pitch in the 9th.

 

Daytona won 5-4. Kirk had his usual solid outing (7ip, 6 h (1 solo HR), 3 K's, 2 R's). Alcantara is red hot ... 2/5, 2 3B's, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB (last 10: .371/.389/.543). Feels like just a hot streak, but maybe there's some development. He's still a 20 year old toolsy, intriguing guy that can handle short, but his lack of discipline was always the worrisome issue.

 

I'm also mildly interested in the decision to keep Lake at SS rather than give him a shot at 2nd or 3rd.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Tennessee lost, but Lake, leading off, was 2/4 with a double and a triple in his return. That said, he also had a K. Mildly interesting decision to have him lead off. Curious behind the thought process on that one - could be simply to get him back in the groove, but half wonder if it's to try and force him to take some pitches. Lake took 4 pitches in the first AB, 1 in the 2nd AB, put a sac bunt on for the 3rd AB, struck out in 3 pitches on his 4th AB, and hit a triple on the first pitch in the 9th.

 

Daytona won 5-4. Kirk had his usual solid outing (7ip, 6 h (1 solo HR), 3 K's, 2 R's). Alcantara is red hot ... 2/5, 2 3B's, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB (last 10: .371/.389/.543). Feels like just a hot streak, but maybe there's some development. He's still a 20 year old toolsy, intriguing guy that can handle short, but his lack of discipline was always the worrisome issue.

 

I'm also mildly interested in the decision to keep Lake at SS rather than give him a shot at 2nd or 3rd.

 

You don't just move SSs off SS willy nilly like that in the minors. There's no need yet.

[toonsterwu]

Agreed. There's absolutely zero need to move Lake off short. He still probably ... shouldn't ... stay there, but that said, he's arguably improved from when he first came over, and Castro's future at short is debatable (SSS, but UZR seems to like him in the early-goings of this year). With no real long term shortstop option unless Arismendy develops, or Marco develops, there's no rush (I guess, I should also put in there if Torreyes somehow convinces them to let him stay there).

[Little Slide Rooter]

I completely forgot that Chris Coghlan existed. Talk about falling off a cliff.

[craig]

Jackson may have been on a "chucker" in 08-09, but he got a lot of K's and outs and walked very few. IN 2010-2012, he's been terrible, with very few K's, and a hit-allowing machine, and lots of HR's.

 

If 2010 Jackson was the "improved' version, there was little hint of that based on his K-rates or actual effectiveness.

 

He was a prospect at one point because he had a good fastball, excellent K/BB results, and good results in general, and he was young.

 

Now that he's old, has terrible K/BB/HR results, has a hit-machine fastball, and that's his best pitch, I'd stick a fork in him. He may need to try to stretch out his pro career in a lower-than AAA level, as a journeyman reliever, or in Indy Ball. But not much indication that he has any of the qualities that could make him even a sub-average big-leaguer reliever.

 

IMO.

[craig]

On Lake, I don't think he's even close to castro defensively, nor does he project as well.

 

The board consensus is that there is no rush to move him. I agree and disagree.

 

It may be true that there is no rush, but that might be assuming either that he's never going to be more than a minor league journeyman, or else that he'll need multiple more developmental years in the minors anyway, such that there is little reason to prepare him for the position(s) he might play in the majors as either a starter or a utility player.

 

He's not been a quick study defensively. So I don't think it makes sense that when he's struggled to become fundamentally sound at SS after 5 years of instruction, that suddenly 5 weeks or even 5 months is going to make him a fundamentally sound, intelligent, smooth player at 2B or 3B, or both.

 

It's likely going to take him at least a year to become even slightly better than "raw" at any new infield position, I'd think. I can see the logic of letting such a raw hitter stay stable defensively, so that he can perhaps focus for this season on his hitting. And then give him 2013 to work on a new position, such that perhaps at some point in 2014 he'd be ready enough defensively for a callup.

 

But I'd think if we have any real hopes of having him big-league ready-to-stay at some point in late 2013, you oughta get him to a big-league position defensively ASAP.

 

Probably only an issue, though, if he improves a lot as a power hitter. If he's a so-so raw hitter, which positions he can't play defensively might not matter much.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's not been a quick study defensively. So I don't think it makes sense that when he's struggled to become fundamentally sound at SS after 5 years of instruction, that suddenly 5 weeks or even 5 months is going to make him a fundamentally sound, intelligent, smooth player at 2B or 3B, or both.

 

I don't think there is a requirement that he be fundamentally sound, intelligent and smooth in 5 weeks or 5 months. How about just competent?

[toonsterwu]

Jackson may have been on a "chucker" in 08-09, but he got a lot of K's and outs and walked very few. IN 2010-2012, he's been terrible, with very few K's, and a hit-allowing machine, and lots of HR's.

 

If 2010 Jackson was the "improved' version, there was little hint of that based on his K-rates or actual effectiveness.

 

He was a prospect at one point because he had a good fastball, excellent K/BB results, and good results in general, and he was young.

 

Now that he's old, has terrible K/BB/HR results, has a hit-machine fastball, and that's his best pitch, I'd stick a fork in him. He may need to try to stretch out his pro career in a lower-than AAA level, as a journeyman reliever, or in Indy Ball. But not much indication that he has any of the qualities that could make him even a sub-average big-leaguer reliever.

 

IMO.

 

Your misreading my comment. What I said about 2010 Jay Jackson was that, the belief was that his mechanics were improved which contributed partly to his command improvement. No where did I say he was improved overall, and no where did I indicate that I was given that impression. As I noted above, the stuff in 2010 (and 2011/2012) was still basically the same as it was in 2009 (low 90's fastball that's a bit straight, 50/55 on the slider, curveball and change a tick below). Maybe the slider is closer to a 50 now, but I haven't followed Jay as closely since 2010. He could get away with that stuff in 2009 in the lower levels, but in AAA, that stuff just won't fly against better, more polished bats.

 

Now, I am in no means really trying to defend Jay Jackson. I had him in my 40-60 range entering this season, and I've consistently sung the praises of Cabrera over the last year and a half as a possible dominant pen arm, and I don't think Jay Jackson is anywhere near Cabrera's potential out of the pen. I wouldn't put Jay Jackson on Blake Parker's level out of the pen. But ... and I can't believe I'm half-defending him, the fastball velocity is still there (I know there were reports questioning his velo last year, but it was in the low 90's as a starter). You move him to the pen and maybe he can focus more on the slider. Maybe it develops. It's a long shot, but my point in my original post is that I don't know if I would put him in "organizational filler" status just yet, relative to the definition that I gave above for what I view as organizational filler.

 

From a statistical perspective, the one thing I haven't gotten a really good grasp on in the past year and change is why his HR rate has fallen. The groundballs are slightly up, but that's a significant drop. Considering the rate this year is in line with last year's, we're slowly getting to the point where it's hard to argue that it's a statistical anomaly. Btw, I find it hard to buy that Jay Jackson needs to go to a lower level or Indy ball to continue his pro career anytime soon. A year or two from now? Perhaps, but anytime soon? I'd be surprised. There are plenty of pitchers in AAA that can't carry a 6ish K/9 and a BB/9 in the 2.7-2.9 BB/9 range, and if the decrease in the HR/9 rate is a sign of development, then I'd find it hard to believe that a team wouldn't give him a look in AAA after this year.

 

Really, I'm not sure why I'm defending him, as I've been off the bandwagon for awhile, but there's a lot of bad pitchers in the minors, and this is a guy with some passable performance indicators who is in his 4th full season of pro ball and who is in his 4th full season as a full-time pitcher. Sure, he's not the exciting guy we thought back in 2009, and yes, he doesn't feel like a guy with end of the game potential, but ... well, put it this way, I'm not sure why we're almost writing an end to his career already. Let me add one more thing in there - I'm not ready to write him off as an end of the rotation candidate yet. I mean, the "definition" of a 4/5 starter is what, no plus pitch, but average breaking ball, usable repetoire for a 3rd (or 4th) pitch, command, and decent fastball velocity?