Dempster Traded to Texas for 3B Villanueva & RHP Hendricks

[USSoccer]

The other day, it was posted that we won't get a draft pick if we keep and offer arb to Dempster. However, I was listening to the Cubs post game just now, and they were discussing trading Dempster, and the host brought up that if he were offered the arbitration, the Cubs would get an extra draft pick, though it would b better to get something through trade. He could have been mistaken, but are we sure we wouldn't get a pick?

 

OT: the best part was one caller who claimed that the reason Epstein was trying to trade everyone, and why he tried to trade Ramirez last year (yes, apparently Theo Epstein somehow tried to trade Aramis Ramirez last year.) was that when they win, he wants all of Hendry's guys gone so he gets all the credit and not Hendry.

 

Do you have that Guy Pearce Memento thing?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

We should trade Marmol and make Dempster a closer again.

[XZero771679666304]

The other day, it was posted that we won't get a draft pick if we keep and offer arb to Dempster. However, I was listening to the Cubs post game just now, and they were discussing trading Dempster, and the host brought up that if he were offered the arbitration, the Cubs would get an extra draft pick, though it would b better to get something through trade. He could have been mistaken, but are we sure we wouldn't get a pick?

 

OT: the best part was one caller who claimed that the reason Epstein was trying to trade everyone, and why he tried to trade Ramirez last year (yes, apparently Theo Epstein somehow tried to trade Aramis Ramirez last year.) was that when they win, he wants all of Hendry's guys gone so he gets all the credit and not Hendry.

 

Do you have that Guy Pearce Memento thing?

 

I'm telling you guys, he's output only. Too busy posting to actually let information in.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The other day, it was posted that we won't get a draft pick if we keep and offer arb to Dempster. However, I was listening to the Cubs post game just now, and they were discussing trading Dempster, and the host brought up that if he were offered the arbitration, the Cubs would get an extra draft pick, though it would b better to get something through trade. He could have been mistaken, but are we sure we wouldn't get a pick?

 

OT: the best part was one caller who claimed that the reason Epstein was trying to trade everyone, and why he tried to trade Ramirez last year (yes, apparently Theo Epstein somehow tried to trade Aramis Ramirez last year.) was that when they win, he wants all of Hendry's guys gone so he gets all the credit and not Hendry.

 

Do you have that Guy Pearce Memento thing?

 

I'm telling you guys, he's output only. Too busy posting to actually let information in.

 

Well if you'd read what I said instead of just trying to make a crack at it, it was the host of the post game show who mentioned that we'd get a draft pick if we made the 12.5M offer and he rejected it. While I get that it was posted yesterday that we wouldn't, I'd expect that the guy whose job it is to talk about things might know better.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Dude, there are probably FIFTY posts on this forum debating offering the qualifier to Dempster. If offered, it depends then, if a team is willing to lose their 1st round pick and the allotment from that pick towards their draft. A 36 year old Ryan Dempster probably does NOT entice a team to do that. If the acquiring team had ALREADY signed Hamilton or another big name FA, it COULD make some sense to give up their 2nd rounder, since their draft allotment is already screwed for that year and sign Dempster instead.

 

If you're a team that is in win now mode, I could very well see them wanting a guy who's been a very consistent 2-3 starter for almost 5 years now. He has had no major health issues since his TJS, and there's no reason to believe that he'd fall off a cliff if given a 2 year deal. So yes, I could see someone with a late 1st round pick coming out of it for him. Word is that the Angels and Greinke are mutually interested in an extension, further whittling down what once promised to be a very deep FA SP class.

[USSoccer]

 

Well if you'd read what I said instead of just trying to make a crack at it, it was the host of the post game show who mentioned that we'd get a draft pick if we made the 12.5M offer and he rejected it. While I get that it was posted yesterday that we wouldn't, I'd expect that the guy whose job it is to talk about things might know better.

 

What you actually said:

 

The other day, it was posted that we won't get a draft pick if we keep and offer arb to Dempster. However, I was listening to the Cubs post game just now, and they were discussing trading Dempster, and the host brought up that if he were offered the arbitration, the Cubs would get an extra draft pick, though it would b better to get something through trade. He could have been mistaken, but are we sure we wouldn't get a pick?

 

So, like I asked, do you forget everything every 8 seconds?

[dew1679666265]

Well if you'd read what I said instead of just trying to make a crack at it, it was the host of the post game show who mentioned that we'd get a draft pick if we made the 12.5M offer and he rejected it. While I get that it was posted yesterday that we wouldn't, I'd expect that the guy whose job it is to talk about things might know better.

 

If the Cubs make the qualifying offer to Demp and he rejects it, the Cubs get a draft pick if another team signs him. The host was probably assuming Demp would be signed after the qualifying offer was made, which is probably a fault assumption with the new CBA.

 

Since teams who sign players who have the qualifying offer tag will now have to surrender their first round pick and lose the draft money that goes along with that pick, it's pretty unlikely a team would sign a non-elite, older player like Dempster. The likelihood is he'd languish on the FA market until he finally accepted the Cubs' offer.

[dew1679666265]

If you're a team that is in win now mode, I could very well see them wanting a guy who's been a very consistent 2-3 starter for almost 5 years now. He has had no major health issues since his TJS, and there's no reason to believe that he'd fall off a cliff if given a 2 year deal. So yes, I could see someone with a late 1st round pick coming out of it for him. Word is that the Angels and Greinke are mutually interested in an extension, further whittling down what once promised to be a very deep FA SP class.

 

It's possible a team might sign Dempster, but they're sacrificing so much (first round pick and the draft money that goes along with it, thus making it harder to sign later picks) that it's pretty unlikely. Dempster has been fairly consistent, but he's very old for a pitcher (36) and is having a career year - he'll likely be overpaid and in decline under a new contract.

[neely crenshaw]

Ted Lilly makes a re-hab start on Sunday. The Dodgers will decide the next move based on that appearance. Fife threw well on Friday, and would need to start again on Wednesday, but then they have off days each of the next 2 weeks, allowing the dodgers to skip a rotation spot if needed in order to allow Lilly to return.

 

If all goes well he could return after 1 more rehab start.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If you're a team that is in win now mode, I could very well see them wanting a guy who's been a very consistent 2-3 starter for almost 5 years now. He has had no major health issues since his TJS, and there's no reason to believe that he'd fall off a cliff if given a 2 year deal. So yes, I could see someone with a late 1st round pick coming out of it for him. Word is that the Angels and Greinke are mutually interested in an extension, further whittling down what once promised to be a very deep FA SP class.

 

It's possible a team might sign Dempster, but they're sacrificing so much (first round pick and the draft money that goes along with it, thus making it harder to sign later picks) that it's pretty unlikely. Dempster has been fairly consistent, but he's very old for a pitcher (36) and is having a career year - he'll likely be overpaid and in decline under a new contract.

 

I certainly do appreciate the explanation. Knowing this, they really could [expletive] him over by offering arb. I'm sure both sides know this, so he should ultimately accept a trade somewhere. This also makes keeping Garza until the winter sound like it could be very beneficial since teams might not willing to team's not willing to give up a pick for the pleasure of overpaying someone like Marcum, Sanchez, or McCarthy.

[17 Seconds]

we're still getting delgado. iiiiii'm not too worried about it.

[dew1679666265]

I certainly do appreciate the explanation. Knowing this, they really could [expletive] him over by offering arb. I'm sure both sides know this, so he should ultimately accept a trade somewhere. This also makes keeping Garza until the winter sound like it could be very beneficial since teams might not willing to team's not willing to give up a pick for the pleasure of overpaying someone like Marcum, Sanchez, or McCarthy.

 

The funny thing is, for the people who want to stick it to Demp by benching him or moving him to the pen, the best way to stick it to him is probably to let him start the rest of the season, hope he posts good numbers, and then hit him with the qualifying offer. He'd probably be in line for one final big payday (3/36, maybe?), but I strongly doubt any team would actually give him that. So he'd be stuck pitching for the Cubs on a 1-year deal with basically no chance of getting a multi-year deal after 2013.

 

The draft budget was the worst thing that could have happened to mid-level pitchers like Marcum, McCarthy, and Dempster. Teams will give up a first rounder and the budget that goes with it for an elite guy, but I have trouble seeing many, if any, teams do that for a non-elite guy.

[UMFan83]

we're still getting delgado. iiiiii'm not too worried about it.

 

You're like the opposite of CC who was doubted we'd get Theo when the Cubs and Red Sox were already figuring out compensation.

[davell]

Yeah, it's a franchise tag. Those guys only hope is if a team spends big on an elite guy, blows their draft allotment and then figures one of them is more important than a 2nd round pick. It's going to be really interesting watching this stuff play out. Hamels is locked up, Greinke probably isn't hitting the open market either. The one guy licking his chops is Annibal Sanchez, because he can NOT be qualified, since he was traded.

[dew1679666265]

Yeah, it's a franchise tag. Those guys only hope is if a team spends big on an elite guy, blows their draft allotment and then figures one of them is more important than a 2nd round pick. It's going to be really interesting watching this stuff play out. Hamels is locked up, Greinke probably isn't hitting the open market either. The one guy licking his chops is Annibal Sanchez, because he can NOT be qualified, since he was traded.

 

It actually wouldn't shock me to see Sanchez extended by the Tigers. They're clearly in a "win now" mode and may want more than a rental for Turner. I've not heard anything so I may have no idea what I'm talking about, but I could see a scenario where none of Hamels/Sanchez/Greinke are available.

 

Which is all the more reason to keep Garza and lock him up.

[mookie]

Oooooooooooooor all the more reason to trade him.

[davell]

Depends on what's offered obviously, but I think last year was an outlier, for the most part, and he's a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher for the most part. Obviously, as you well know, I'm not worried about 2013 at all, at this point. I'm banking on us trading for a TOR type and developing another, to go with Shark.

[davell]

Back to the qualifier though. Complete list of hitters I see having a chance to get tagged: Hamilton is a no-brainer. I'd say Melky is too. Those are the only two I definitely think a team tanks their draft for. Napoli, Swisher, Bourn, and Upton may receive the qualifier, but I can't guarantee any of them entice a team enough to punt their draft. Ortiz and Berkman could get it and that's a perfect example of the CBA hurting older guys, because this would be either's last chance to cash in.

[dew1679666265]

Oooooooooooooor all the more reason to trade him.

 

If you like losing games, sure.

[mookie]

Oooooooooooooor all the more reason to trade him.

 

If you like losing games, sure.

 

Exactly, because that is the only way to conceivably look at it.

[davell]

Pitching, with Hamels off the market, Greinke looking like he will be too, it leaves Sanchez as the top FA. Peavy is right there, because I can't see the White Sox giving him his 22 mill option. Not sure, but I'd think that keeps them from being able to offer the qualifier. After those two, you've got Dempster, McCarthy, Edwin, Marcum, and Lohse. Kuroda falls into the Ortiz/Berkman category, where the Yanks can give him the qualifier and it definitely keeps him from another multiyear deal. If any of those pitchers get someone to punt their pick, my guess is it's Edwin. He's young, very solid, with good stuff. That said, I doubt Oakland qualifies McCarthy, money related obviously. The Cards may let Lohse walk too. But I'd expect Dempster, Marcum, and Edwin to get the tag. And if Dempster's agent is worth a [expletive], he's looked this over and realizes with as weak as this class is, not having to deal with the qualifier, could easily net him a 3, maybe even 4 year deal from someone.

[dew1679666265]

Depends on what's offered obviously, but I think last year was an outlier, for the most part, and he's a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher for the most part. Obviously, as you well know, I'm not worried about 2013 at all, at this point. I'm banking on us trading for a TOR type and developing another, to go with Shark.

 

I'd have to be blown away by an offer to trade Garza. I see him as, at worst, a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher and potentially better if a few flaws can be fixed (get down the ridiculously high 16% HR/FB ratio and/or find a way to improve his fielding). He's probably not consistently the 5+ WAR pitcher from 2011, but I think you're selling him short if you peg his upside as 2.5-3 WAR. I think he can settle into the 3.5-4.5 WAR range.

 

Combine that with the increasing possibility that you get him at a decent value (high ERA, some injury issues so far) and I see him as having much more value on a team desperately in need of definite talent than turning him into a couple players who you hope become ... him, eventually.

[dew1679666265]

Oooooooooooooor all the more reason to trade him.

 

If you like losing games, sure.

 

Exactly, because that is the only way to conceivably look at it.

 

We'll be doing a lot more of it for the next year or two at least if we trade Garza, considering we don't have fallback options like Hamels and Greinke in FA and may not even have Anibal. If I'm trading Garza, I want 2 TOR potential, major league ready SPs or I keep and extend him. I don't see any way the former is happening unless a GM is really dumb, so I'm more than happy to do the latter.

[THISisTHEyear09]

I wonder if STL would get in on Dempster now, since they've been linked with Liriano. They have some nice prospects. Although I can't see Ryan accepting a trade there. Who knows.

[davell]

Well, at this point, you've got Shields, Johnson, and Vargas as the names being tossed around. And our 3 guys. It's musical chairs, in a way. You've got Atlanta, LA, STL, Washington, Boston, Baltimore, Texas, and Toronto making noise about wanting pitching. Boston could fall out though and even add to what's available. That'd be a bad development obviously. Atlanta's possibly starting to believe in Sheets, but they still need another guy. LA has Lilly starting a rehab assignment very soon and probably wants to spend their prospects on hitting, if they can. Toronto can still decide not to buy. Texas is threatening to put Ogando or Feliz back in their rotation. Some of this is posturing, but some of it probably winds up happening. I hope we get a couple of our guys sold here, the more I look at it, it's not going to be easy. I'll predict Dempster winds up in LA and Maholm goes to Baltimore. Garza stays put and we try again in the offseason when the FA class is weak.